This is my personal compilation of trends from articles across the net over the past 2 years. It will help you fill out your brackets and handicap games.
If you're seeking NCAA bracket help consider the qualities that a successful tournament team typically possesses. National championship teams are
1) athletic
2) have one or more NBA-bound players
3) have solid depth on the bench
4) rebound well
5)have post up and score player
6)shoot the 3 ball above avg.
7)Don't rely on their defense to make up for offensive ineptitude (Don't get me wrong as defense is very important, but teams that consistently don't shoot the ball well have a difficult time going deep into the NCAA tourney bracket).
Playing NCAA bracket help - picking upsets:
What about early round games? How do you sniff out potential upsets? Look for the small conference and mid-major teams that have good 3 point shooters and decent inside presences. Once you find those teams look at who they are matched up against in their NCAA tournament bracket. Find opponents that struggle to score points and that are not strong inside the paint. A good offensive mid-major that can play solid defense is always capable of beating major teams that tend to struggle on offense.
Another kind of underdog to look for is a major conference team that gets a 10, 11, or 12 seed. Anything can happen there especially if the major conference team is matched up against a higher seeded mid-major school. Let's take a look at how many first round upsets have taken place over the last 5 NCAA tournaments:
In the 2004 NCAA bracket there were 4 first round upsets based on seedings. Two 12 seeds beat 5 seeds. Those two 12 seeds both lost in the second round. A number 10 seed beat a 7 seed and went on to make the Sweet 16 where they lost. A number 9 seed beat an 8 seed and also went on to the Sweet 16 where they lost. 8 and 9 seeds are essentially the same and can hardly be called an upset game. In fact history shows that 9 seeds have beaten 8 seeds 53% of the time.
Upsets were a little more common during the 2005 NCAA basketball tournament. Three 9 seeds beat 8 seeds(again this really isn't an upset). Then we had 10 beat 7, 11 beat 6, 12 beat 5, 13 beat 4, and 14 beat 3 exactly one time each in the March Madness bracket. Only two teams seeded higher than 8 made it to the Sweet 16 in that tournament, a number 10 seed and a number 12 seed. Neither team made the Elite 8.
The 2006 NCAA bracket was a little crazier yet. Only one 9 seed beat an 8 seed but we had 10 beat 7, 11 beat 6, and 12 beat 5 two times each. We also had a 13 seed beat a 4 seed and a 14 beat a 3. Only two of these teams made it past the 2nd round. The 13 seed(Bradley) lost in the Sweet 16 and of course George Mason(11 seed) made it all the way to the Final Four.
The 2007 NCAA tournament bracket was similar to 2004 in that there were only 5 first round upsets based on seedings. Three 9 seeds beat 8 seeds while two 11 seeds beat 6 seeds. Those two 11 seeds both lost in the second round as did all three 9 seeds. All Sweet 16 teams in 2007 were seeded 7 or higher.
The 2008 NCAA tourney bracket featured 8 first round upsets based on seedings. 9 seeds beat 8 seeds, 12 seeds beat 5 seeds, and 13 seeds beat 4 seeds two times each. An 11 seed beat a 5 seed and a 10 seed beat a 7 seed. Villanova and Western Kentucky, both 12 seeds, made it to the Sweet 16. Davidson, a 10 seed, made it to the Elite 8.
General NCAA bracket help
- If we throw out the 9 seeds beating the 8 seeds, there was a total of twenty-seven first round upsets during the 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 NCAA tournaments. That's twenty-seven teams out of 140 seeded 10 and higher. Just eight of those twenty teams made it to the Sweet 16. Only two made it further(George Mason and Davidson). What that tells us is that the Sweet 16 is going to be comprised almost totally of 8 seeds and higher. The Elite 8 will rarely have a team seeded higher than 8. Actually number 8 seeds always match up against number 1 seeds in the second round, so they rarely reach the Sweet 16 or beyond either
There are obviously many combinations possible within the tourney bracket. Ever wonder how many? Try 9,223,372,036,854, 780,000. That's over 9 quintillion unique bracket sheets that could be filled out.
To put a little more perspective on this let's cut the NCAA tournament down to the best 32 teams in the nation. Now there's only 31 games involved in the tourney. So you multiply 2 by itself 31 times and you get 2,147,483,648 or over 2 billion possible unique NCAA bracket sheets. What if it was only a 16 team tournament? You'd have 32,768 combinations. An 8 team tournament produces 128 possible results while a four team tournament produces 24.
Now we can take those numbers and apply them to our NCAA bracket advice and philosophy. Ultimately you want to base your picks on your knowledge and gut feel for each team. So you work your way through your bracket and you end up with a national champion. This is the point where you can start going back through your bracket and noting which teams and games you feel are locks. You can also note which games you aren't real sure about. Rather than start with the first round of the tournament, start with the NCAA championship game and work yourself back to the early rounds.
National champion bracket advice:
There are only 2 possibilities with the championship game. Are you confident with your pick? If yes then move back to the Final Four round. If no then make a note as you may want to fill out a second bracket and just switch who you pick to be national champion. Work your way back through the entire bracket before making that decision though.
Final Four bracket advice:
Check out your Final Four picks. Are you confident in both, one, or none of those picks? If none then you're basically saying that you don't have a good feel for which of the 24 possible combinations will play out from the Final Four onwards.
Elite 8 bracket advice:
Check out your Elite 8. There are 128 possible combinations that could play out during the rest of the tournament. Do you consider any of your picks to be locks? Which games are you unsure about? What if you chose the other team in games you're unsure about? How would that affect your Final Four and your championship game?
Sweet 16 bracket advice:
Jump back to the Sweet 16 and go through the same thought process. If you changed a few of your picks in this round how does that affect your choices in the Elite 8, Final Four, and national championship game? Do this for 2nd round games and then finally the 1st round games.
General NCAA bracket advice:
When it comes down to filling out additional brackets you're going to have to make some tough calls. You're not going to be able to fill out a bracket to cover all of your bases. So you have to make some decisions and decide which games you are the least confident in. Decide how many brackets you're going to fill out and then narrow down the distinctions between each bracket.
TRENDS
1-4 Seeds
It's relatively common knowledge that a number 1 seed has never been beaten in the 1st round by a number 16 seed. But how about these NCAA tournament trends and bracket facts:
- Since the field was expanded to 64 teams in 1985, only four number 2 seeds have lost in the first round of the tournament. The last time it happened was in 2001 when Hampton beat Iowa State 58 to 57. That means number 2 seeds are 88-4 in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
- Since 1985 number 3 seeds are 81-15 in the first round of the NCAA men's basketball tournament.
- Since 1985 number 4 seeds are 76-20 in the first round of the NCAA basketball tournament bracket.
- As mentioned above a number 1 seed has never lost to a number 16 seed. That makes number 1 seeds 96-0 in the first round of the tourney since 1985.
- Since 1985 there has only been one tournament where none of the number 1 seeds made the Final Four. That was the 2006 NCAA tourney.
- Number 1 seeds have squared off in the national championship game only 5 times since 1985. The last time was in 2008 with Kansas beating Memphis for the title. In 2007 two number 1 seeds also squared off with Florida beating Ohio State for the championship. Note that two number 1 seeds also made it to the final in 2005 with North Carolina taking out Illinois to become champions. So while overall NCAA tournament trends show that two number 1 seeds in the title game is uncommon, the feat has been achieved in 3 of the last 4 years.
- Since 1985 number 1 seeds have won fourteen championships, number 2 seeds have won four, number 3 seeds have won three, and number 4 seeds have won one. That accounts for 22 of the 24 national championships since the field was expanded to 64 teams.
Number 1 seed NCAA tournament trends:
Lost 0 times in the first round
Lost 12 times in the second round
Lost 15 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 27 times in the Elite 8
Lost 20 times in the Final Four
Lost 8 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 14 times
Number 2 seed NCAA tournament trends:
Lost 4 times in the first round
Lost 33 times in the second round
Lost 16 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 23 times in the Elite 8
Lost 10 times in the Final Four
Lost 7 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 4 times
Number 3 seed NCAA tournament trends:
Lost 15 times in the first round
Lost 32 times in the second round
Lost 26 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 11 times in the Elite 8
Lost 4 times in the Final Four
Lost 5 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 3 times
Number 4 seed NCAA tournament trends:
Lost 20 times in the first round
Lost 35 times in the second round
Lost 27 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 5 times in the Elite 8
Lost 7 times in the Final Four
Lost 1 time in the championship game
Won the national championship 1 time
NCAA tournament trends summary - 1 thru 4 seeds
Almost 82% of number 1 seeds have made it to at least the Elite 8. About 44% of number 1 seeds have made it to the Final Four. 84 of the 96 Final Four teams since 1985 have been 1 through 4 seeds.
When filling out your NCAA tournament bracket the first thing you can do is advance all number 1 and 2 seeds to the second round. Since 3 and 4 seeds win 82% of the time in the first round, it's a good bet to just go ahead and advance them to the second round as well. Chances are you'll end up somewhere between 16-0 and 14-2 on those games alone. Even if a 13 or 14 seed upsets a 3 or 4 seed they rarely go any farther than the second round
5-8 Seeds
Since the NCAA tourney field expanded to 64 in 1985, teams seeded 5 and 6 have won just over two-thirds of their first round games. That also means the lower seed wins 1 out of 3 times so it's important to study these first round matchups. Number 7 seeds have won about 60% of their first round games while 8 seeds have actually lost to the number 9 seed more times than not. 8 seeds are 44-52 in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
General NCAA basketball tournament trends - 5 thru 8 seeds
5 thru 8 seeds typically bow out of the NCAA tournament prior to the Elite 8. Since 1985 only 5 out of 96 teams have made it to the Elite 8 as a number 5 seed. Interestingly number 6 seeds have made it to the Elite 8 twelve times since 1985. During the same time-frame only eighteen number 7 seeds have made it to the Sweet 16 while only nine number 8 seeds have made it that far. That is likely due to the fact that 7 seeds meet 2 seeds in the 2nd round and 8 seeds meet 1 seeds.
The summary below shows how far 5 thru 8 seeds have made it in the NCAA tournament since 1985:
Number 5 seed NCAA basketball tournament trends:
Lost 31 times in the first round
Lost 31 times in the second round
Lost 9 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 1 time in the Elite 8
Lost 2 times in the Final Four
Lost 2 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 0 times
Number 6 seed NCAA basketball tournament trends :
Lost 30 times in the first round
Lost 32 times in the second round
Lost 22 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 9 times in the Elite 8
Lost 1 time in the Final Four
Lost 1 time in the championship game
Won the national championship 1 time
Number 7 seed NCAA basketball tournament trends:
Lost 36 times in the first round
Lost 42 times in the second round
Lost 12 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 6 times in the Elite 8
Lost 0 times in the Final Four
Lost 0 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 0 times
Number 8 seed NCAA basketball tournament trends:
Lost 52 times in the first round
Lost 35 times in the second round
Lost 2 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 4 times in the Elite 8
Lost 2 times in the Final Four
Lost 0 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 1 time
NCAA basketball tournament trends - 5 thru 8 seeds in the championship game
Villanova won the national championship in 1985 as a number 8 seed and Kansas topped the NCAA college basketball bracket in 1988 as a number 6 seed. Michigan lost in the 1992 championship game as a number 6 seed. Florida lost in the 2000 title game as a number 5 seed. Indiana lost in the 2002 NCAA title game as a number 5 seed. Other than those instances the national championship game since 1985 has been owned by 1 through 4 seed
9-12 Seeds
NCAA bracket trends show that 9 through 12 seeds in the NCAA men's basketball tournament are where you can look for most of the first round upsets to occur. A number 9 seed beating an 8 seed really isn't an upset, in fact 9 seeds hold a 52-44 advantage over 8 seeds since 1985. But when a 10, 11, or 12 seed wins in the NCAA tournament then we're talking upset.
9 thru 12 seed NCAA bracket trends since 1985:
9 seeds are 52-44 against 8 seeds.
10 seeds are 38-58 against 7 seeds.
11 seeds are 30-66 against 6 seeds.
12 seeds are 31-65 against 5 seeds.
The summary below shows how far 9 thru 12 seeds have made it in the NCAA tournament since 1985:
Number 9 seed NCAA bracket trends:
Lost 44 times in the first round
Lost 49 times in the second round
Lost 2 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 1 time in the Elite 8
Lost 0 times in the Final Four
Lost 0 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 0 times
Number 10 seed NCAA bracket trends :
Lost 60 times in the first round
Lost 18 times in the second round
Lost 11 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 7 times in the Elite 8
Lost 0 times in the Final Four
Lost 0 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 0 times
Number 11 seed NCAA bracket trends:
Lost 66 times in the first round
Lost 19 times in the second round
Lost 7 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 2 times in the Elite 8
Lost 2 times in the Final Four
Lost 0 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 0 times
Number 12 seed NCAA bracket trends:
Lost 65 times in the first round
Lost 14 times in the second round
Lost 16 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 1 time in the Elite 8
Lost 0 times in the Final Four
Lost 0 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 0 times
NCAA bracket trends summary - 9 thru 12 seeds
As you can see from the chart above, most 9 through 12 seeds are done prior to the Sweet 16 as expected. Interesting how 10, 11, and 12 seeds stand a better chance of making the Sweet 16 for the simple reason that 9 seeds match up with the number 1 seeds in the second round. Since 1985 number 1 seeds are 83-13 against 8 and 9 seeds in the second round of the NCAA men's basketball bracket. Only two teams seeded from 9 to 12 have made it to the Final Four. Amazingly they were both 11 seeds(George Mason in 2006 and LSU in 1986
13-16 Seeds
March Madness bracket trends show that the longshots of the NCAA basketball tournament are the 13 through 16 seeds. It's a huge achievement for one of these high seeds to make the Sweet 16. In fact it's only been done six times, four by 13 seeds and two by 14 seeds. No team seeded higher than 12(Missouri in 2002) has ever made it to the Elite 8.
13 thru 16 seed March Madness bracket trends since 1985:
Number 13 seeds are 20-76 against 4 seeds
Number 14 seeds are 15-81 against 3 seeds
Number 15 seeds are 4-92 against 2 seeds
Number 16 seeds are 0-96 against 1 seeds.
The summary below shows how far 13 thru 16 seeds have made it in the NCAA tournament since 1985:
Number 13 seed March Madness bracket trends:
Lost 76 times in the first round
Lost 16 times in the second round
Lost 4 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 0 times in the Elite 8
Lost 0 times in the Final Four
Lost 0 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 0 times
Number 14 seed March Madness bracket trends :
Lost 81 times in the first round
Lost 13 times in the second round
Lost 2 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 0 times in the Elite 8
Lost 0 times in the Final Four
Lost 0 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 0 times
Number 15 seed March Madness bracket trends:
Lost 92 times in the first round
Lost 4 times in the second round
Lost 0 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 0 times in the Elite 8
Lost 0 times in the Final Four
Lost 0 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 0 times
Number 16 seed March Madness bracket trends:
Lost 96 times in the first round
Lost 0 times in the second round
Lost 0 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 0 times in the Elite 8
Lost 0 times in the Final Four
Lost 0 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 0 times
SUMMARY
#1 Seeds- Of course no #1 seed has ever lost in the first round but even better the overall record for #1 seeds is (376-104) 78% win percentage overall in the NCAA tournament.
#2 Seeds- Only 4 #2 seeds have lost in first round and none since 2001. Overall record (267-114) 70% win percentage overall in the NCAA tournament.
#3 Seeds- First round upsets have occurred 15 times since 1985. Overall Record (199-116) 63% win percentage overall in the NCAA tournament.
#4 Seeds- Upsets for first round have happened 21 times in the last 24 years. Overall NCAA tournament record (161-118) 57% win percentage.
#5 Seeds- Everybody knows that this #12 seeds always seem to upset #5 seeds in fact 31 times since 1985 they have upset the favorite in the first round. Overall NCAA tournament record (141-121) 53% win percentage overall.
#6 Seeds- Only 30 out of 96 times have the #6 been upset since 1985! Overall record (154-118) 56 % win percentage overall!
#7 Seeds- Not a big upset when they lose the first round surprisingly they have a good win percentage in the first round since 1985 going 60-36. Overall record (105-120) 46% win percentage overall.
#8 Seeds- Many don’t consider this first round loss an upset because these teams are always so similar. Since 1985 overall record 44-52. Overall record is (88-119) 42% win percentage overall.
Other interesting trends: Since 1985 there has only been one tournament where none of the number 1 seeds made the Final Four. That was the 2006 NCAA tourney. Number 1 seeds have squared off in the national championship game only 5 times since 1985. The last time was in 2008 with Kansas beating Memphis to win the title
Note: That two number 1 seeds also made it to the final in 2005 with North Carolina taking out Illinois to become champions. So while overall NCAA tournament trends show that two number 1 seeds in the title game are uncommon, the feat has been achieved in 3 of the last 4 years.
Since 1985 number 1 seeds have won fourteen championships, number 2 seeds have won four, number 3 seeds have won three, and number 4 seeds have won one. That accounts for 22 of the 24 national championships since the field was expanded to 64 teams.
From these trends Craig’s advice is as follows. When filling out your NCAA tournament bracket the first thing you can do is advance all number 1 and 2 seeds to the second round. Since 3 and 4 seeds win 82% of the time in the first round, it’s a good bet to just go ahead and advance them to the second round as well. Chances are you’ll end up somewhere between 16-0 and 14-2 on those games alone.
Even if a 13 or 14 seed upsets a 3 or 4 seed they rarely go any farther than the second round.
RANGER
Last edited by Ranger; 03/17/09 11:10 PM.
