The Lobos and Beavers collide in a Christmas Eve duel. New Mexico comes in at 8-4 SU and 7-4 ATS. On the road, the Lobos are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. Oregon State comes into this contest at 7-5 SU and 5-6 ATS. Away from Corvallis, the Beavers are just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS.
New Mexico led the Mountain West Conference in rushing defense and also total defense. Their offense was incredibly balanced, running and passing for 200+ yards a piece and scoring 31.5 points per game in the process. The Lobos finished the season on a 7-1 SU run their last eight and a 6-1 ATS run their last seven. And their statistical dominance to close the year was downright alarming.
New Mexico’s last five contests overall saw them out gain quality conference foes in Utah, UNLV, Colorado State, Air Force and Wyoming by an average of 232 yards per game!!! Their star RB Moore is one of the very best in the country, rushing for a school-record 1,438 yards. On defense, the Lobos rank 4th in the nation against the run, with only Ohio State, LSU and USC ahead of them!!! At press, NMSU had already sold 5,500 tickets to this game, which means Sam Boyd Stadium will be heavily Lobo’s partisan.
For their part, Oregon State boasts the Pac-10 Conference's leading passer in Derek Anderson and also the leading rusher in Steven Jackson. The Beavers star running back rushed for 1,396 yards on a school-record 322 carries this season. They also have an incredible receiver in Newson, who set another Oregon State record with seven 100-yard receiving games, ending the regular season with 78 catches and better than 1,200 yards. Add it all up and the Beavers rank 1st in the Pac-10’s total offense category!
In addition to their incredible offense, Oregon State can play some defense as well. In fact, they are 7th in the nation in rush defense, permitting only 90 yards per game. Overall, OSU is a dangerous team that is loaded from top to bottom with quality athletes. Back in Mike Riley’s first go round in Corvallis, he started to rely heavily upon Junior College players to come in and make an immediate impact on the OSU program. Previously, the Beavers had a very difficult time matching the sort of athletes other Pac-10 schools were enrolling. This is the same strategy Kansas State has used and thrived at for years.
Oregon State went from being the laughing stock of the Pac-10, to a program that has attended three bowls in their last four seasons. Four years ago, OSU went 11-1 and finished as high as #4 in various polls. They actually pasted the Notre Dame 41-9 in the Fiesta Bowl that season. We bring this up only because Conference Strength is particularly important when capping the bowls.
Remember, this very same Lobo’s bunch attended the Las Vegas Bowl last year and were matched up against a Pac-10 opponent. A decent, but certainly not great, Bruins team rolled New Mexico 27-13. New Mexico was simply outclassed from a talent standpoint.
Here is the final assessment. Oregon State has the better players, but they are also a very undisciplined team. We watched many of their games this season and penalties and turnovers were the story in almost each. In fact, their QB Derek Anderson threw 23 picks, which was the most in the entire nation. As a team, OSU had 37 giveaways.
There is a decent technical argument here for the Lobos as well. Recall, they come in on a strong 6-1 ATS run and were 4-1 ATS on the road. Meanwhile, OSU has lost 8 of their last 11 ATS away from Corvallis. In addition, the Beavers are 1-7 ATS their last seven as a road favorite and 0-2 ATS as a road favorite this year. Note also that bowl dogs priced at +3 or less are 21-12 ATS the past four years. Even more interesting is that Pac-10 favorites that play prior to January 1 are 5-21 ATS their last twenty-six bowl games!!!
HOWEVER, Despite all that it will come down to the running attacks that will ultimately decide the outcome as both these teams love to run. The Beavers defense is much stronger against the run than the Lobos and that has us leaning State's way. In addition, the arial attack of the Beavers is more potent than the Lobos and that can't hurt their chances here either. The Lobos are the hotter of the two, however, we believe the Beavers to be the more talented both, defensively, and especially offensively and thus we're calling the Beavers to win and cover
Play is 1 unit on OREGON STATE -3 <img src="http://www.playersinsider.com/images/NCAA/OREGON_ST.gif" alt=" - " />
<small>[ December 24, 2003, 02:53 PM: Message edited by: Ranger ]</small>
