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 6/20 Stake Races
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COLONIAL TURF CUP S. (G2), 11TH-CNL, $500,000, 3YO, 1 3/16MT, 6:16 P.M. (EDT), 6-20 PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT 1 AL KHALI PLETCHER TODD A DESORMEAUX K J 117 2 WINNING VOW METZ JEFFREY KAENEL KYLE 117 3 RESCUE SQUAD MCGAUGHEY CLAUDE III PRADO E S 117 4 STRAIGHT STORY GOLDBERG ALAN E LOPEZ C C 117 5 TAKE THE POINTS PLETCHER TODD A GOMEZ G K 117 6 MARK S THE COOLER O'NEILL DOUG NAKATANI C S 117 7 FINAL COUNT OLIVER PHILIP J LANERIE C J 117 8 BATTLE OF HASTINGS (GB) MULLINS JEFF BAZE T C 119 9 DOVER STREET ART (IRE) O'NEILL DOUG DELGADILLO A 117 10 LIME RICKEY ALEXANDER FRANK A LEPAROUX JULIEN 117
Saturday's $500,000 Colonial Turf Cup (G2) over 1 3/16 miles attracted 10 three-year-olds possessing more potential than accomplishment. Indeed, morning-line favorite BATTLE OF HASTINGS (GB) (Royal Applause [GB]) is the only stakes winner in the bunch, and thus will take some beating under Tyler Baze. We're still going to take a stand against that one, however, and look for a price.
Possessing plenty of speed, perhaps enough to get a clear lead, is STRAIGHT STORY (Giant's Causeway). Though both wins have been versus New York-breds, this is a Kentucky-style pedigree he owns (he is from the family of top race mare Take Charge Lady) and he is a perfect two-for-two on grass while his dirt form leaves much to be desired. We're hoping this one can establish a comfortable early lead and be able to go on to extend his margin when asked.
LIME RICKEY (Lemon Drop Kid) is as consistent as they come, with a 10-2-4-3 mark on the turf. His lone unplaced finish on the lawn occurred on ground that was less than firm, but he's rebounded to finish second three times in stakes company this season. He looked strong beating first-level allowance foes at Belmont in mid-May, and is one of the classier contenders in the field.
We can't demote Battle of Hastings much further than third based on his accomplishments, which includes scores in the Baldwin S. (G3) and La Puente S., and a close second in the American Turf S. (G3) last time. The Jeff Mullins charge didn't fare well in his U.S. debut last November, but has done really well to become California's leading sophomore on grass after acclimating to his new surroundings.
MARK S THE COOLER (Johar), like Straight Story, is undefeated in two starts on grass, most recently taking a first-level allowance at Hollywood by a nose. The pace was not all that fast that day, so he did well to rally from fourth to keep that mark intact. He should be in striking range throughout. FINAL COUNT (Smart Strike) is another last-out allowance winner. He overcame an even more slower pace in winning at Churchill Downs last time, and could be any kind as he steps up to faces stakes foes for the first time. RESCUE SQUAD (Dynaformer) had no major excuses when falling short three times in allowance company earlier this year, albeit against some tough ones like Affirmatif (Unbridled's Song) and Florentino (Jpn) (Swept Overboard). We're still inclined to take a stand against him.
The uncoupled Todd Pletcher-trained duo of AL KHALI (Medaglia d'Oro) and TAKE THE POINTS (Even the Score) might be overbet in this spot. Both have grandsires that are familiar grass influences, but we're not entirely convinced we didn't see the very best these two had to offer on the main track earlier this year. WINNING VOW (Broken Vow) was competitive over the winter at Turf Paradise, but this is obviously a more difficult task. DOVER STREET ART (Ire) (Alhaarth) showed little when finish 7 1/2 lengths behind Battle of Hastings in the La Puente, his only previous attempt on turf.
1st-STRAIGHT STORY 2nd-LIME RICKEY 3rd-BATTLE OF HASTINGS (GB)
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 Re: 6/20 Stake Races
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NEW YORK S. (G2), 9TH-BEL, $250,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 1 1/4MT, 5:17 P.M. (EDT), 6-20 PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT 1 BELLE ALLURE (IRE) CLEMENT CHRISTOPHE DOMINGUEZ R A 116 2 CRITICISM (GB) ALBERTRANI THOMAS CASTELLANO J J 123 3 COLINA VERDE (BRZ) MCLAUGHLIN KIARAN P GARCIA A 118 4 DRESS REHEARSAL (IRE) MOTT WILLIAM I MARAGH RAJIV 120 5 BACKSEAT RHYTHM MCLAUGHLIN KIARAN P VELASQUEZ CORNE 120 6 DYNAFORCE MOTT WILLIAM I VELAZQUEZ J R 118 7 ICON PROJECT WOLFSON MARTIN D VALDIVIA J JR 116 8 I LOST MY CHOO SERPE PHILIP M LEZCANO JOSE 120 9 BORROWING BASE QUICK PATRICK J NO RIDER 116 10 WINNING POINT MCLAUGHLIN KIARAN P NO RIDER 116
A superb cast of 10 fillies and mares, two of which are main-track only entrants, will vie in Saturday's $250,000 New York S. (G2) over the Belmont lawn. We've never been huge fans of Grade 1 victress DYNAFORCE (Dynaformer), but we think that the Bill Mott charge has a huge chance in here in her second off the bench. A four-length romper in the Flower Bowl Invitational H. (G1) over a yielding Belmont turf in the fall, the six-year-old would move up considerably with moisture on the lawn, which is expected. We think that her last run will serve as a useful prep for this with the added ground. John Velazquez has the call.
Group 3 vixen BELLE ALURE (Ire) (Numerous) was a convincing allowance winner leading up to this event and rates a huge chance for Christophe Clement. The chestnut was highly thought of in Europe in the early part of her career and gives the impression of a horse with a lot of upside. If the filly proves adept at 10 furlongs, she'll be in with a shot breaking from the rail.
CRITICISM (GB) (Machiavellian) has won four graded races in her last five outings and looks like the one to beat, and catch, in this well-matched field. The Tom Albertrani trainee loves to be sent early and lull her foes to sleep, and while this field might be her toughest to date, we still respect the five-year-old who is in razor-sharp form. Javier Castellano retains the mount atop the bay.
Grade 1 lass BACKSEAT RHYTHM (El Corredor) has failed to build upon her sophomore success for new trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, finishing fifth in her last pair. The talented filly does love this oval, though, with three wins in four tries, and we can't imagine the 10 furlongs will pose a problem, so we'll give her a solid chance at a top-three finish with a form reversal.
New York-bred turf star I LOST MY CHOO (Western Expression), who is cross-entered to Saturday's All Along S. (G3) at Colonial Downs, has a potent turn of foot for Phil Serpe, and the miss has proven herself versus open company on many occasions in the past. The dual Grade 3 vixen has never run this far but likes this oval, so we'll use her some. Orchid H. (G2) romper DRESS REHEARSAL (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) has had a productive start to her four-year-old campaign and makes the next logical step in here for Mott. The well-bred import has tactical speed and a fine closing kick, but we see her as more of a one-paced filly who might struggle to keep up against this chiseled field. We'd like this one a lot more at 1 1/2 miles.
Three-time Brazilian Group 1 heroine COLINA VERDE (Brz) (Know Heights [Ire]) has yet to make a strong impression since arriving in the United States last year and could find this company to tough. Now in the hands of Kiaran McLaughlin, the six-year-old has some tactical speed and has registered BRIS Late Pace numbers of 114 and 107 in her last two, so we can't count her out from gimmicks consideration. La Prevoyante H. (G2) third ICON PROJECT (Empire Maker) is bred for great things, but the jury is still out on the lightly-raced bay. A strong allowance winner two back, her closing kick at Calder last out was encouraging and her future appears bright. This field might be a tad much for her at this point, though, and she is cross-entered to Saturday's All Along.
Next Move H. (G3) runner-up WINNING POINT (Point Given) has missed the board just once in 11 career starts and would be a huge factor if the race washes off the turf. Ladies H. upsetter BORROWING BASE (Personal Flag) will only go if the race moves to the main oval, where the Empire State-bred has a chance. The Patrick Quick trainee can run all day and would do best if the pace backs up some.
1st-DYNAFORCE 2nd-BELLE ALURE (Ire) 3rd-CRITICISM (GB)
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 Re: 6/20 Stake Races
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ALL ALONG S. (G3), 10TH-CNL, $150,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 1 1/8MT, 5:21 P.M. (EDT), 6-20 PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT 1 SALES TAX SMITH HAMILTON A HOMEISTER R B J 118 2 KITTY CAT EXPRESS SILVA BUTCH VAIL J S 118 3 TEJIDA MATZ MICHAEL R NAKATANI C S 118 4 I LOST MY CHOO SERPE PHILIP M LEZCANO JOSE 124 5 ICON PROJECT WOLFSON MARTIN D LEPAROUX JULIEN 118 6 DYNA'S LASSIE FOUT P DOUGLAS FOGELSONGER R 118 7 INDESCRIBABLE MOTT WILLIAM I DESORMEAUX K J 120 8 PRECIOUS PRINCESS OLIVER VICTORIA LANERIE C J 118 9 JULIA TUTTLE ALLEN A FERRIS III RUSSELL SHELDON 118 10 WINTER VIEW SHEPPARD JONATHAN E PRADO E S 124 11 FIRST ASCENT OFFUTT LEIGH GARCIA LUIS 118 12 ASTROLOGIE (FR) CLEMENT CHRISTOPHE GOMEZ G K 118
A dozen turf specialists will travel nine furlongs on the Colonial Downs grass in Saturday's $150,000 All Along S. (G3), and we're going to the outside with ASTROLOGIE (Fr) (Polish Precedent) to take down this intriguing race. Trained by Christophe Clement, the French import has raced twice on U.S. soil with modest results, running third in the Long Island H. (G2) last fall prior to placing fourth in the La Prevoyante H. (G2) last out. The filly was highly thought of as a youngster in Europe and she's shown us enough here to gain our top pick in this big field. As long as the filly can handle the cutback in trip, she'll be ultra tough under Garrett Gomez.
Three-time Grade 3 queen INDESCRIBABLE (Pleasant Tap) has a ton of talent and deserves a good deal of respect in this field for Bill Mott. The chestnut mare has won two of her three tries on turf and can handle a soft course, and her running style suggests that she won't have to make up too much ground in the lane. If the five-year-old runs her best, she could be the one beneath Kent Desormeaux.
Bewitch S. (G3) heroine WINTER VIEW (Thunder Gulch) romped to a pair of fine marathon wins at Keeneland for expert conditioner Jonathan Sheppard and could be coming into peak form. The five-year-old failed seven times against first-level allowance foes prior to her breakout at Keeneland, and she's a big question mark cutting back in trip, but we can't toss her nonetheless. Edgar Prado will be in the irons.
New York-bred turf star I LOST MY CHOO (Western Expression) has a potent turn of foot for Phil Serpe, and the miss has proven herself versus open company on many occasions in the past. The dual Grade 3 vixen is proven at this trip and looked good in bagging the Virginia Oaks (G2) over this sod last year, so we see no reason why she can't challenge for the win in here under Jose Lezcano. The filly is cross-entered in the New York S. (G2) at Belmont.
TEJIDA (Rahy) has been a bit player in four straight Grade 3 affairs for Michael Matz, but we won't discount the mare's chances at completing some exotics at a square price. The bay lass made a solid late run in the Gallorette H. (G3) last out into a dawdling pace, and if she gets some legitimate splits at which to run at here, she can factor with her best. Corey Nakatani will be up. ICON PROJECT (Empire Maker), who is also cross-entered in the New York, finished with energy to be third in the La Prevoyante last out for Marty Wolfson. The impeccably-bred filly has a ton of potential and should do well at this distance off of her fine allowance score two back. Top turf jockey Julien Leparoux will be aboard.
DYNA'S LASSIE (Dynaformer) has been a model of consistency for Doug Fout, finishing first or second in seven of her last eight outings. The lightly-raced five-year-old has faced some respectable foes in her career and always fires, so she's another we'll throw into the exotics mix. SALES TAX (High Yield) notched the Tippett S. over this course at two but hasn't won since her freshman campaign for conditioner Hamilton Smith. The chestnut Maryland-bred will run big if she reaches the top four at long odds.
KITTY CAT EXPRESS (Cat Thief) wired an allowance field at Delaware last out but is in a tough spot against this field. PRECIOUS PRINCESS (Horse Chestnut [SAf]) looks like a pace presence and not much more against this cast. JULIA TUTTLE (Giant's Causeway), third in the Virginia Oaks last campaign, hasn't won since August and can't be recommended on this occasion. FIRST ASCENT (Cherokee Run) has yet to win a stakes race and picked a tough spot to do so in here.
1st-ASTROLOGIE (Fr) 2nd-INDESCRIBABLE 3rd-WINTER VIEW
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 Re: 6/20 Stake Races
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OBEAH S. (G3), 7TH-DEL, $125,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 1 1/8M, 3:57 P.M. (EDT), 6-20 PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT 1 TELL IT AS IT IS SMITH JAMES J ROSE J 117 2 STRIKING TOMISUE ZITO NICHOLAS P COHEN DAVID 117 3 ALL NIGHT LABOR NUNLEY RANDY POTTS C L 117 4 YOU ASKED GOLDBERG ALAN E CASTELLANO A JR 117 5 MORENA (PER) MATZ MICHAEL R NAPRAVNIK ANNA 117 6 ALL SMILES CAMPITELLI FRANCIS P SHEPHERD J 117 7 UNBRIDLED BELLE PLETCHER TODD A MIGLIORE R 117 8 SKYLIGHTER FRANKEL ROBERT J SMITH M E 123
Eight fillies and mares will go nine furlongs at Delaware Park on Saturday in the $125,000 Obeah S. (G3). Defending champ UNBRIDLED BELLE (Broken Vow) was last seen finishing fifth in the Louisville Distaff S. (G2), but we're willing to forgive that effort and tab the six-year-old for the win in here. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the dark bay lass has four wins in six tries over this oval and loves a route of ground, so we expect a vast turn around from her latest endeavor. Richard Migliore will get his first ride atop the Kentucky-bred.
Dual Grade 2 queen SKYLIGHTER (Sky Mesa) is the lone filly in the group and is arguably the one to beat for Bobby Frankel. The underrated four-year-old has really come along over the past year, winning four of six races, led by the Allaire DuPont Distaff H. (G2) in her most recent showing and the Indiana Oaks (G2) last October. Her best puts her right there beneath Mike Smith.
Wayward Lass S. queen STRIKING TOMISUE (Smart Strike), who is cross-entered to a listed event at Belmont on Sunday, has been outrun in her latest graded tries for Nick Zito, but the Kentucky-bred is interesting from a pace standpoint in this field. Equipped with natural gate speed, the bay has a good chance to grab the rail and lead into the first turn, and while she's not as accomplished as many of her foes, a soft tempo could carry her to a nice payday at a decent price.
TELL IT AS IT IS (Chester House) won a pair of stakes at Woodbine last campaign and ranks second in BRIS Prime Power (140.7) for conditioner James Smith. The bay miss has little experience running on dirt, having just raced twice on it, but her closing third in the Fall City H. (G2) measures up to most in here. Jeremy Rose will break from the rail atop the five-year-old.
Delaware lover ALL NIGHT LABOR (Double Honor) has finished first or second in 11 of 15 local tries for Randy Nunley, so the mare is an obvious exotics threat on this day. Second to a nice one in the Monmouth Beach S. in her last one, the Florida-bred has good early foot and should have a chance turning for home if she's up to the task. Peruvian import MORENA (Per) (Privately Held) rolled to a trio of group wins in succession by 40 1/4 lengths and will make her U.S. bow in here for new trainer Michael Matz. The wildcard mare has won 10 of her 15 starts, all on dirt, and hails from a sharp barn. We'd suggest watching the board for some insight.
YOU ASKED (Yes It's True) has never run this far and was always thought of by us as a one-turn closer, so we're going to omit the mare from the mix on this occasion. ALL SMILES (Awesome Again) has never placed in three tries over this oval and is not in career form, so it's hard to tab the Maryland-bred for anything more than a minor award.
1st-UNBRIDLED BELLE 2nd-SKYLIGHTER 3rd-STRIKING TOMISUE
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 Re: 6/20 Stake Races
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AFFIRMED H. (G3), 9TH-HOL, $100,000, 3YO, 1 1/16M, 5:00 P.M. (PDT), 6-20 PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT 1 MISREMEMBERED BAFFERT BOB ESPINOZA V 114 2 GRAZEN MITCHELL MIKE BEJARANO R 114 3 CAPE TRUTH O'NEILL DOUG QUINONEZ ALONSO 114 4 QUINDICI MAN LEWIS CRAIG A ROSARIO JOEL 114 5 SCOREWITHCATER O'NEILL DOUG TALAMO JOSEPH 116 6 FIDDLERS AFLEET HOFMANS DAVID GARCIA MARTIN 113
A compact field of six sophomores will go 1 1/16 miles in the $100,000 Affirmed H. (G3) over Cushion Track at Hollywood Park on Saturday. We're taking a shot with CAPE TRUTH (Cape Town) from the barn of Doug O'Neill. The Kentucky-bred defeated a very talented runner in his debut and took his only other synthetic try when defeating an allowance field two races back. The dark bay never fired in the Lone Star Derby (G3) last out over a dirt course, but he appears to be a different animal on the Cushion. Alonso Quinonez will be aboard.
New York-bred FIDDLERS AFLEET (Northern Afleet) finished a decent fourth behind a trio of solid older foes last out and since this field doesn't look as good as that one, we'll include the bay in our vertical plays. Trained by David Hofmans, the colt should be just off the early tempo and could get first run on the closers under Martin Garcia.
Borderland Derby victor SCOREWITHCATER (Even the Score) gives O'Neill a strong one-two punch in this race. The chestnut colt was claimed for $40,000 in November and has rewarded his new owners with three wins in six starts since, including two finishes ahead of eventual Kentucky Derby (G1) hero Mine That Bird (Birdstone) at Sunland. The Kentucky-bred has never earned better than an 88 BRIS Speed figure and will surely be overbet, but he still appears capable of offering a challenge.
MISREMEMBERED (Candy Ride [Arg]) has rolled to a pair of easy scores in succession for Bob Baffert and rates a big chance in this one from the rail. The improving chestnut colt earned a big 107 BRIS Late Pace number last out and could get a favorable ground-saving trip under Victor Espinoza.
GRAZEN (Benchmark) has won two straight for Mike Mitchell and the gray colt looks like the speed of the race. The tactical three-year-old toppled an open-company allowance field last out with relative ease, and while he's stepping up in class, this field isn't the deepest ever assembled. Rafael Bejarano retains the mount. QUINDICI MAN (Came Home) was second to our top pick two back but was no factor against better in his last for Craig Lewis. The late runner could be compromised some in this small field unless the pace is quick, and we like others more anyway.
1st-CAPE TRUTH 2nd-FIDDLERS AFLEET 3rd-SCOREWITHCATER
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 Re: 6/20 Stake Races
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JV Squad
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Anyone going to be following the racing at Mohawk tonight its the eliminations to the 1.5 million dollar North American cup for next week.
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 Re: 6/20 Stake Races
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Mohawk Racing for Saturday
1st Race Selections 3-4-1-2
3 I WONT DANCE has just the single flaw on his record coming into this race and that failure was of his own doing in the form of a break.na ROSSI has Moiseyev back to drive tonight and I liked that part of the profile well enough to give him a top three rating. The competition tonight is tougher than what he faced last time and he’ll have to step up with a big effort if he’s going to finish as predicted. Moiseyev might choose to race up close and follow along with an energy saving strategy. He has enough early speed that he can do that. 7 ILLUSIONSNDREAMS responded to the driver change on June 4 to win for the first time this year. Condren is back again and there’s enough of a chance that he might upset that I’d have to consider that possibility. Those that are playing the pick 4 wager should be taking a look if only for use on a secondary ticket. Condren is a save them for when it counts most type of driver but he might want the $15,000 winner’s share tonight and the pick the post bonus that goes along with it. THE FOLLOWING LISTED IN POST POSITION ORDER (1) WINNING MISTER is good on his best night but has had a problem with breaks in the past on occasion. If Waples can keep him on the straight and narrow, a finish in the top three is quite possible. He was good enough last year that the year end bankroll was not too far off the $200,000 mark. (3) ADEN HANOVER hasn’t indicated yet that he can compete effectively at this level. I didn’t care so much for the recent breaks that show up in his history. That makes him too risky for my liking. He’s been well supported in races up to this night but that is probably going to change. (6) HIBBLER was sold last year after a fast start but hasn’t been doing all that well for the new ownership team and trainer Harry Poulton for whatever reason. This week or next would be a good time for the turnaround to show up but it is tough to make that prediction.
5th Race Selections 5-4-2-10
5 CHASIN RACIN ended up with top spot after much deliberating. He’ll be in the upset odds range if my guess is right and maybe luck out to beat some that he shouldn’t if he has a trip advantage, which we all know that Campbell can provide if he has the horsepower. Only the top two finishers are guaranteed a spot in the final. There isn’t much room for error on the part of the drivers. Gung Ho has to be the frame of mind. 4 WELL SAID will benefit from that last start when more speed was required. His forth place finish was disappointing to his backers but maybe they can get the losses back tonight if Pierce can get him to produce a make amends performance. I’m not going to rate him as a “can’t miss” candidate for a qualifying spot in the final next week but he has to be considered. 2 LISAGAIN takes the third spot in the triactor prediction that I am going to offer. He has to come back and be as good tonight (or better) as he was a week ago in the Burlington Stakes. He’s one of the inside speed possibilities. Carnivore could be in that mode too and so could Well Said. Racing third or fourth when the field turns to race the backstretch portion might not be the best place. The sprint to the first turn could be interesting. 10 KEEP IT REAL might have been my morning line choice had he drawn a position from two to six. There isn’t any doubt that he’s a very talented colt but how many handicappers/bettors are going to support him from post 10 is the question that I had to ask myself. That’s a great equalizer and only the best can overcome that in an important race like this one. He might not see the rail from start to finish. He needs a bit of luck somewhere along the line to go with his talent. THE FOLLOWING LISTED IN POST POSITION ORDER (1) FIREINTHESHARK didn’t make my list of possible winners. A smaller share prediction is the best that I can do for him. Brennan will give him as much chance as his talent allows but it might not be good enough. (3) CARNIVORE posted a 6-1 minor upset last week with a high level performance. Even with the $100,000 purse on the line that was a prep race for this contest. There is no tomorrow for those looking to continue down the path towards the Pepsi North America Cup final. Racing room might be a problem for him if he is quick off the wings and is racing inside heading towards the final turn. (6) GLAD TO BE BACK was a high odds item in the Burlington last week and should be in the same mode again tonight if your game plan is to try for an upset winner. (7) WAFFLES AND CREAM didn’t rate as a top three prospect for this handicapper. He has a sweet treat type of name but hasn’t won a race this year in limited opportunities when racing against easier competition in some of those races. (8) CAPTAIN SIR doesn’t have the goods this year to compete effectively at this level--at least not right now. It’s going to be very tough for him to be successful from post 8. (9) NOB HILL HIGH looked like a solid contender in his Burlington division a week ago. That changes tonight partly because of the post 9 situation and partly because of the tougher competition. Most of the major contenders were luckier in the draw. Equipment changes: CAPTAIN SIR 5/02 Shoeing: steel to aluminum (front) GLAD TO BE BACK 6/12 remove blinkers
6th Race Selections 2-8-6-3
2 DIAL OR NO DIAL should be one of the lowest priced winners on the program tonight if he does beat them all as predicted. He’s a never worse than third performer on the year and sets up quite nicely for this event. Post 2 shouldn’t cause any serious problems for him. Sears can ask for enough early speed to situate him where he wants to be in the first part of the race. He’ll be on the lead or challenging early in t he middle half is my guess. 8 BAY OF SHARKS was a high odds item that I used last week in the Burlington Stakes and he helped to add some value to the exotic wagers on that occasion. He move to post 8 makes it more difficult but I’ll try again and give him a top two call. Baillargeon is part owner on this colt and he’ll be out to get all that he can. He needs to finish 1-2 to make the cut. Next week he might have better luck in the draw if he makes it. He was without racing room last week. 6 IDEAL DANNY was a Burlington Stakes division winner and gives Pierce a back up if Well Said fails to make the NAC final tonight. The word from the trainer last week was that this fella does better when put into the race early. That’s what Pierce had to say in a post race interview. A two hole trip is possible for part of the mile behind Dial Or No Dial if he’s situated properly and Pierce will try to do that. 3 O K BOROMIR won’t win tonight with the same style that he used last week. At least I don’t think he can. We have to give him high marks for the win on June 13 when he upset the favourite. Barn Art is going to have the same “most popular” status in a later division tonight. I don’t think he can beat my top selection but the others might have to battle with him for the 2-through-4 finishing spots. THE FOLLOWING LISTED IN POST POSITION ORDER (1) STINGER BLUE CHIP has a notable driver change to Campbell. His choice next week would be Barn Art but tonight he has to get this stablemate qualified for the final. I gave him a “maybe” vote. (4) IDEAL RACE is a player on the Bulletproof team. How many starters do they have tonight? 10-12-15? I didn’t count but they are well represented. This pacer might be one of the second stringers when compared to some of the others for the same owners. (5) JOHNNY Z didn’t have a driver named when I rated him. What happens in that area might cause me to rethink his rating slightly with a move up into the top four a possibility. (7) MYSTICISM didn’t have much to offer last week in the Burlington Stakes. A slow start put him into trouble early and it didn’t get much better as the race unfolded. Maybe he can turn it around a bit tonight. (9) HAY GOODLOOKING has good numbers to offer but this test tonight from post 9 looks to be a difficult spot for him. He was race favourite in two recent starts and many before that. The price will be much higher tonight if you want to give him a go. (10) MIGHTY ME has double 10’s in his post position column from last week and tonight. It’s going to be tough to overcome that handicap again. Equipment changes: BAY OF SHARKS 6/13 blind bridle to blinkers 5/24 KSB to blind bridle and hopples 58.5 to 59 inches. STINGER BLUE CHIP 5/09 remove blinkers
7th Race Selections 6-2-1-5
6 SHACKED UP wasn’t beaten all that much by Shanghai Lil on June 6 when they finished in the 3/4 positions behind Yellow Diamond and Ginger And Fred. They both duck that rival but end up with Fox Valley Topaz to deal with tonight. She looks like a playable upset option here if the odds difference is enough to make her the value play when compared to the other pair. Sears might pull it off. 2 SHANGHAI LIL tracked and chased Yellow Diamond in her two most recent starts but as mentioned above doesn’t have to worry about that filly tonight. Rating her in the two slot is not out of line. She could have been number one as easy as not or number three. The highest rated trio doesn’t have too much separating them from a talent standpoint the way it looks. The others will have to step up a bit to qualify for the final next week. 1 REAL HEART is going to play the role of price booster for my triactor prediction. I’ve given her a morning line quote in double digits and hopefully that’s the way it turns out. She’s flashed a bit of early in the speed in the past on occasion. A mid pack position would suit me fine if Christoforou can work it out that way. That would give him a chance to pick up some live cover. 5 FOX VALLEY TOPAZ is the most accomplished filly in the field with more than $600,000 in purse earnings and an 11 win record. She and Shanghai Lil should be the most popular starters. Coleman takes over the training duties. I put her and the previous trainer into the same category. I’ll try to beat her for the top three positions but others will disagree with that assessment. THE FOLLOWING LISTED IN POST POSITION ORDER (3) TAKE MY PULSE could have replaced Real Heart as my third choice and might get that type of play if I do invest in the triactor. She hasn’t been a world beater this year but does have the Kopas/Condren team to make things a little interesting. (4) BLOGETTE HANOVER had lots of early season success but isn’t as good right now as she was at that time. Be nice to see her earn a top three result and make it to the final next week. It’s not impossible. (7) TERRORONTHEBEACH flopped as the race favourite two starts back against lesser rivals. I wasn’t very interested in her when looking for win/top three candidates. It would take a trip advantage to put her into that category when it is all over and done. (8) RILEY CHARACTER bested a group of three and four year old Nw2 fillies last time at The Meadowlands. This is a tougher spot but she might fool me with a better than predicted result. She had some success earlier in the Tenderloving Care at the Big M. Let’s see who gets the call to drive her. That was unknown at the time of writing. Equipment changes: TAKE MY PULSE 6/12 blind bridle to KSB
8th Race Selections 5-10-1-4
5 IF I CAN DREAM looks like he might be one of the winners tonight for the Bulletproof/Brainard combo. One of his main rivals had the poor luck to draw post 10. That helps his chances. Stablemate, Schoolkids, is also in good form now so that’s a back for the owner/trainer team but not for the bettors since they race as separate entities. He’s not a standout but one of the more logical choices to consider. 10 PASSMASTER HANOVER might have been the race favourite in my guestimate about closing odds had he been luckier in the post position draw. Maybe there will be enough handicappers willing to overlook post 10 to give him that role. It’s hard to say. The viewing and wagering audience tonight will be increased because of the importance of the program. I’m trying to guess about what thousands of bettors are going to think when assessing opening odds. 1 SCHOOLKIDS didn’t have a driver listed when I did the ratings. The choice might have been one of the locals (Jamieson or MacDonald) or it could be one of the meadowlands teamsters that didn’t have another commitment. Recent performances are good enough to suggest that he can contender for one of the highest finishing positions and maybe all the marbles if everything works just right as the race unfolds. 4 SHIPPS EXPECTANCY showed us last year that he has some talent to offer. Kopas sent him out for two recently qualifiers and he came back a winner both times. He’s going to be a major player this year in the O.S.S. program and might do some good against the open company too. If the speed isn’t faster than 1:52 he has a chance to cop a top three result if he can improve by three seconds or a bit more than that. THE FOLLOWING LISTED IN POST POSITION ORDER (2) SHEER DESIRE showed sub 1:52 speed when he beat a field of overnight pacers in his final prep for this race. He got brave on the lead and didn’t have any serious challengers once he took over the controlling position. You could consider for use in the triactor/superfecta scheme. (3) ARTIC WARRIOR sucked along to pace in 1;50.4 a week ago in the Burlington Stakes. That only got him a small share of the purse. He might have to settle for similar again this night. (6) STONEBRIDGE TERROR wasn’t expected to be a serious threat last time. His 36-1 odds might be slightly lower tonight but he’ll still be in the longshot category. (7) BARBER POLE got a haircut last time at Yonkers. It looks like his 1:49 performance from not so long ago was a one shot deal. If he somehow finds that same speed again, the others will be in trouble. (8) MANHATTAN BLUE CHIP is Waples hope for a drive in the Pepsi NAC final. I thought three of four of the others were more appealing and had to rate him that way. (9) ANNIESWESTERNCARD was a hit and miss performer last year. On his best nights he was very good but he other races where he didn’t so well. This year hasn’t been overly successful up to this point in time. Equipment changes: MANHATTAN BLUE CHIP 6/08 Shoeing: aluminum to steel (front)
9th Race Selections 3-9-2-4
3 VINTAGE MASTER should be second choice in the wagering if Art Colony proves to be the most popular again tonight. I’ll try for a minor upset and name him as my top selection. He needs to be in the 1:50--1:51 range to win if the racing conditions are favourable. The weather forecast had the possibility of rain at 80% for Saturday night. Hopefully the meteorologists are as wrong about that as I will be about some of my predictions. 9 ART COLONY saved a bit last week when he was second best to Carnivore. There isn’t much room for error tonight with only the top two finishers advancing to the final (guarantee) plus two finishers in the show position. He’s the likely race favourite again but I’m going to try to beat him for the top spot with the one above. He’ll be Campbell’s choice next week unless he fails tonight. That’s the way I’d guess about his decision if he had two or more options to consider. 2 FAST PAY is in a tougher spot tonight than in previous races against O.S.S. rivals. I’m going to hope that he can finish in the top three and use him as my complete the triactor selection. We’ll have a better idea when this is over how he stacks up against the best of the open competition 3 year old pacers. The move to the bigger track should help with his speed if he is talented enough. 4 DROP RED has a pair of sub 1:51 performances to consider. Something wasn’t working quite right last time. The driver change should help. Brennan knows him very well from past experience. The familiarity that a driver has with a trotter or pacer often helps. I’ll give him the final spot in my group of top four prospects. The trainer is also an ownership partner. I always like to see that combination do well. THE FOLLOWING LISTED IN POST POSITION ORDER (1) FIRE ON THE WATER takes a shot against the big boys tonight with the hopes of having some luck. He looks too risky for me to consider for a high in the order prediction. (3) VINTAGE MASTER could have and probably should have been listed in the top group. He[s been second best in four of his last five races. One thing about him is that he has never won a race. Maybe he’s a bridesmaid. (5) STRAIGHT SHOOTING didn’t make my list of win contenders. If the best in the field are in top form, he’s going to have a hard time beating them. (6) SOMBRERO BLUE CHIP has mixed results to offer from recent starts. Overlook the last race failure and you could make a case for using him in the triactor and maybe the exactor. (8) MILLIONAIRE CAM was on the borderline when it came time to decide about a spot in the elite group or in the bottom level. He might fool me but I preferred others. (9) MR WIGGLES continues to have poor luck in the post position draw. This is his third consecutive race with nothing better than post 9. He won the Hoosier Cup with the same handicap. Maybe? (10) CHIEF OF THE BEACH was recently sold at private terms. Unfortunately for the new owners the only luck that he had in the post position draw was poor. That hurts. Equipment changes: CHIEF OF THE BEACH 6/13 Shoeing: steel to aluminum (front) FIRE ON THE WATER 6/08 Shoeing: aluminum to steel (front) 5/25 remove Pelling Pacifier MILLIONAIRE CAM 6/06 blind bridle to blinkers
10th Race Selections 2-4-6-1
2 WARRAWEE KAY might pull off a mild surprise tonight but will have to combine a top level performance with a heads up steer from Pierce to make it happen as well as predicted. I thought Not Enough and Special Sweetheart might be slightly more popular with the bettors but that guess could be wrong. Starting from post 2 gives her a good chance to establish a positioning advantage early. That might hold up well enough depending on how the flow of the race plays out. 4 NOT ENOUGH is perfect this year on both sides of the Canada/USA border and yet another starter tonight for Bulletproof and Brainard. There had to be a convoy to get them all here for this program tonight. Some are going to be big shooters; others not rated as top contender but when it is all over there will be some WEG purse cheques in the mail. This gal might have the biggest share owing from the $35,000 purse. 6 SPECIAL SWEETHEART can be a major player if she gets fired up for this start. Artandi is now listed as trainer of record. Swick handled her at the Meadowlands when she was there. I didn’t make a big item out of that change. She’s missed in a couple of rich purse opportunities this year. She is the fastest winner in the field with a 1:50.4 win from May 22. Tetrick picked up the drive when Jamieson turned her down. That’s okay. I like him just as much or more than the original choice. 1 SHES A FAN is the one that Jamieson chose to drive and that’s understandable considering the family ties. There is only one flaw on her record this year and you can find a reason to overlook that failure. A better than predicted result wouldn’t be a big shocker. Jamieson, the circuit’s leading driver, knows this track like the back of his hand. That doesn’t hurt. THE FOLLOWING LISTED IN POST POSITION ORDER (3) GIRLS NITE OUT looked somewhat “iffy” to me even with Campbell driving. She might have to settle for one of the smaller portions of the purse is my guess. (5) BACKSTRETCH SWEETIE is on the verge of reaching the $100,000 mark in earnings. Any share of the purse tonight puts her into that bracket. Saftic owns a piece of this filly. He’d like to add a little more to the bankroll--I’m sure. (7) MELISSAS FANCY paced her fastest speed last time from what I can tell. I put her into the upset category along with some of the others after looking at them all for the first time. (8) CHEAP MOTEL didn’t have the shipping to contend with like some of her stablemates. I didn’t think she would be fast enough to compete for a top three result unless she has an extra gear that we haven’t seen yet. Equipment changes: CHEAP MOTEL 6/05 open bridle with side rolls to blind bridle.
11th Race Selections 1-7-8-4
1 CANBEC CONDOR was not very good in that last start but I’m willing to forgive that one and give him a try for the upset tonight. We might see a surprise result in one or more of the final three races on the program and I thought he might be worth considering. He’s in a class dropping mode and farther in his history you can find some performances better than the recent ones. 7 SILENT SWING was back in winning form again last week. He’s going to be a major player if he can duplicate or improve off that performance. This past open class pacer has beaten some of the best in the past and is looking to make his way back up the class ladder again. He can handle himself in the top pacing class when in top form. A win tonight would probably get him back up into the preferred or open classification. 8 RAW ENERGY is sometime soon going to be in the right spot at the right time and get set down for a winning closing kick by Condren or if it happens tonight by Campbell. I wouldn’t want to rule him out too quickly when making your list of possible winners. He’s capable of better things than what we’ve seen from him recently. It’s only a matter of time. Keep close tabs if he doesn’t win tonight. 4 LEGAL LITIGATOR will get a second look tonight if we have an equipment change announced. Coleman is very dangerous when she makes changes. She just recently took over the training duties on this pacer, who is on the verge of reaching the $200,000 mark in earnings. Campbell drove last week. Tonight it will be Jamieson at the controls. Beware! THE FOLLOWING LISTED IN POST POSITION ORDER (2) JOSHUA PARK was a good runner-up second best behind Blissed Out a week ago. He moves up into the next highest classification tonight. That makes it tougher if the top rated rivals are close to their best. (3) BEACH BOY TOY might go one or two more starts before his next victory shows up. The last win that he had has dropped off into the archives and that makes his money won summary more appealing. (5) CINDERELLA GUY got the nod from MacDonald when he had to choose between two options. Legal Litigator was the other one that he was named to drive. The last start can only help. That was his first since October 2008. He’ll be the choice of some handicappers that are going to play the “should be better in t he second start” angle. (6) RUSTLER STEVE was the pick that Zeron made over Beach Boy Toy. He was overlooked last time by many of the bettors after that not so good result in t he previous start. He didn’t miss the 27-1 upset by much on June 13. Maybe? (9) GET OUT OF DODGE is the only drive on the program for this Hudon. He and brother Pat are both in this race to create a family rivalry. Neither one looked like win contenders to this handicapper. Equipment changes: BEACH BOY TOY 5/04 Shoeing: steel to aluminum (front)
12th Race Selections 6-2-8-1
6 HYPERION HANOVER is overdue to show us a winning performance. I we get it tonight it should be at odds in the upset range unless Shadow Play isn’t as popular as expected or doesn’t race. It has been a long time since the last victory for this pacer. He’s been a steady money maker however. Only that last start from 10 was not good enough to earn him a share of the purse. Let’s give a try in this second leg of the final pick 3 wager. 2 SHADOW PLAY has been portrayed recently as a pacer that has a foot problem. That might be under control by the time race time rolls around and if not, he might be scratched. I was going to try to beat him for the top spot regardless of how it played out. The 2-1 morning line quote might not hold up. Write that last start off. Miller was between a rock and hard place once he was stuck outside over the London half-miler. Not much you can do in that situation. 8 BOLERO CHARLES has a money won profile that makes me think it might be best to sit and wait for one or two more starts before considering for the next win prediction. Using him in the second or third position might get you a triactor dividend. He’s good enough on one of his best nights to race effectively against most of the other seven starters in this $40,000 even for pacers listed in the preferred classification. 1 PROVEN LOVER didn’t get Campbell back to drive. It’s going to be Jamieson aboard for this try. He was the last driver to win with this pacer so the choice isn’t a negative by any means. The class drop makes him a very playable option now that he doesn’t have to knock heads in the open class. Another mile in the 1:50 range puts him into the hunt for a top three result and maybe the win. THE FOLLOWING LISTED IN POST POISITION ORDER (3) EAGLE LUCK tested rivals that are tougher than most in this field when he tried the Classic Series. He’s long overdue to strike again. The only win that he has this year was taken prior to April 4. MacDonald might luck out with a favourable trip. That would help his chances. (4) ANDERLECHT is sometimes overlooked by the bettors and will offer high odds in some starts. He can surprise and might be worth a look if double digit rewards are being offered again this night. He didn’t miss the 13-1 upset by too much a week ago when only Acceptable Risk was better. (5) BLISSED OUT has to beat tougher rivals tonight if he’s going to double up. It’s a possibility but I chose to wait for another night. (7) ACCEPTABLE RISK has been very consistent this year from a money making standpoint. He beat some quality types last time in upset fashion. Another surprise isn’t totally impossible. Equipment changes: ACCEPTABLE RISK 6/13 add Murphy blind 5/09 Blinkers to blind bridle EAGLE LUCK 5/02 Blind bridle to Swedish blind
13th Race Selections 10-3-8-4
10 TYBER KING might be good enough to beat post 10 and pull off an upset in the finale to help create a profitable return for those that are playing the superfecta and lucky or good enough to have all the top four finishers in order in a single combination. I’ll stick with my beat the favourite strategy to close out the program. Christoforou and some of the others drivers don’t always get into the gung ho mode from post 10 but he’s always been worth considering if the odds are high enough. 3 MATTSCAPE SEELSTER has completed a re-classification process and is now into a spot where had has to be considered a solid prospect to beat them all. He should be the race favourite and I’ve rated the next lowest starter (actually two of them) at 6-1 odds. I elected to try for a higher return with my top selection but he’d have to be played in the number one spot as a back up. 8 SKY TANTRUM is another one in the class dropping mode. Previous starts at this level of competition have produced mixed results. They don’t show up in his past performance information tonight. The tote board might give you a clue on what to expect. He has to be taking some play for me to consider an investment. If the odds are high, I might pass except for use in the lower positions. 4 ARMBRO DUBLIN was as tough to figure out as a jigsaw puzzle with missing pieces for this handicapper. There was some improvement last time and we do see a trainer change tonight, which might make a difference or it might not. He has the talent to do well in this type of race if he’s on his game. That’s been the tough part about him this year is figuring out when he is going to fire up. THE FOLLOWING LISTED IN POST POSITION ORDER (1) PULSE N has been good so far from limited starts since the claim. He did better than I thought he would last week in this same classification. Hopefully he continues down the same path for the new owners. I considered him to be a risky claim because of his limited starts last year and the lengthy stint on the sidelines but that opinion might have to be reversed. (2) MY FELLA was part of an upset exactor combination when he and Astreos Flash took the two highest finish positions on June 6. He wasn’t as successful last time. I’ll watch. (5) SMITHSONIAN might suit better in the claiming ranks but he does get to drop down to a lower level tonight when compared to his most recent race. What’s your guess? (6) WINDSUN BEN isn’t over classified (racing against rivals that are too tough) if he shows up ready to produce one of his best races. He doesn’t always do that and I’ve had a tough time predicting his results for the most part. (7) SPEED DEMON tries for the hat trick tonight with Condren taking over as the driving partner. Mayotte, as expected, made the choice to handle the race favourite. S.C. missed by just a head when he drove him not too long ago. (9) SHANE HALL might improve enough off that first start tonight to get the score. Let’s see if there is an equipment change. That might be the item that would put me onto his bandwagon. Equipment changes: MY FELLA 6/06 remove screen add blinkers WINDSUN BEN 5/09 Shoeing: aluminum to steel (front)
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 Re: 6/20 Stake Races
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Freshman
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Freshman
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Posts: 347 Wisconsin |
ATS HORSE OF THE MONTH WEEKEND ARLINGTON PARK RACE 6 10 ( Horse of the month) BIG RUSHLET W/P 8 WILDEY SOUTHERN BOY 3 LAST GRAN STANDING 2 MIGHTY RULE
RACE #4 5 PEYOTE PATTY W/P 1 RIPE TOMATO 7 SECRET KIN 3 MAGNETIC MISS
BELMONT RACE #6 3 PRINCE CHARMING W/P 6 MAJESTIC BLUE 7 CABARET COWBOY 2 SUNDAY BLITZ
USE TOP HORSE W/P RESTIN THE EXOTICS
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 Re: 6/20 Stake Races
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 281,537 Likes: 2964 Time to play the Game
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Joined: Dec 2000
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Dave Litfin Belmont Park BEST BET: Lion by My Side (4th race) First Race -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Marina Market 2. Fuhrever Dancing 3. Skagerrak
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If recent heavy rains force Saturday's opener off the grass, MARINA MARKET has been claimed from three of last four, and might sit a favorable outside stalking trip if TAKE THE BLUFF puts some pressure on FUHREVER DANCING. The latter enjoyed clear lead wiring Marina Market first off the claim, then led to deep stretch and just misssed to FAIRWAY DRIVE in return to turf; dangerous speed any footing. SKAGERRAK won on soft and heavy ground in France; homebred rates a look in U.S. bow if race goes on a waterlogged course. Second Race -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Natty Meboy 2. African King 3. Social Escalade
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NATTY MEBOY drops from statebred allowance ranks first out since swerving to avoid fallen rival nearing stretch six months ago; won maiden as a stalker this track. AFRICAN KING fits well with the locals based on Calder graduation over Four Star Bo, winner of an off-the-turf restricted claimer at Aqueduct in April; likely to be outsprinted early by TOWNIE'S DREAM and SOCIAL ESCALADE in first-ever sprint. Social Escalade is drawn outside the other speeds after fading in the mud going 7fs; blinkers on, leading rider sticks around. Third Race -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Sir Hughes 2. Grapple 3. He Struck It Rich
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- With the exception of his first start off a layoff of nearly 15 months, SIR HUGHES has been capable of running Beyer Figures in the 70s on turf and dirt, which puts him in contention no matter which side of the rails this race winds up on; wide chasing runaway front-end winner latest. GRAPPLE has also been able to handle turf and dirt; showed change of pace rallying from midpack to just miss on this course third time back from extended absence. HE STRUCK IT RICH (0 for 13) and WINLOC'S BIG D (0 for 14) were necks apart to begin their respective form cycles; neither would be a surprise in this "Battle of Beaten Favorites." Fourth Race -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Lion by My Side 2. Mitchell Park 3. Gold Close to Home
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LION BY MY SIDE checked first turn and raced three wide chasing Native Playboy (3 for 5 lifetime) in slow-paced N3x allowance at Charles Town; beaten chalk appears cut above this $15K restricted competition. MITCHELL PARK takes sharp drop after finishing far back in Grade 3 Sam F. Davis; won from rail off workouts at Tampa Bay, first-time Lasix. GOLD CLOSE TO HOME comes off peak figure chasing favored Miller's Mint (see 8th race); has regressed twice previously directly following similar performances. Fifth Race -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Dear Marylou 2. Petal Meadow 3. Idle Gossip
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If final leg of early pick four is rained off, DEAR MARYLOU has a relatively low turf Tomlinson (215), a sign the Birdstone filly could move forward off two grass sprints in May; improved speed from gate second out. PETAL MEADOW broke alertly from rail and carried her speed a bit farther with blinkers on to remain well clear of KEG OF DYNAMITE on sealed muddy track; cuts back a sixteenth, gets Lasix. IDLE GOSSIP is a half-sis to First Commandment, a winner of three dirt routes from four career starts for these connections; main track only mate PROPERLYINTRODUCED top-rated (432) for wet tracks. Sixth Race -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Majestic Blue 2. Sunday Blitz 3. Prince Charming
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MAJESTIC BLUE stalked and finished determinedly to win sprint debut at Saratoga, and follow-up start chasing to midstretch in Breeders' Futurity on Polytrack is easily excused; clicking off five-furlong workouts weekly. SUNDAY BLITZ ran subsequent Remsen winner Old Fashioned to a photo last fall, while five lengths clear of Doc's Friend, who is now a two-time allowance winner; graduated '08 finale over three next-out winners. Before fading in the Nashua last fall, PRINCE CHARMING outdueled CABARET COWBOY in slop for maiden win on this track; purposeful work tab, Seventh Race -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Clay County 2. Api Mohkat 3. One Starry Nite
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CLAY COUNTY chased 3-10 shot He's So Chic (who was dropping from competitive races in stakes company) second time off the claim at Monmouth; connections can nearly recoup their investment if gelding walks his beat vs. basement-level sprinters. API MOHKAT was within 2 1/2 lengths of the choice last winter; since then, however, he has been slow from the gate more often than not, and he hasn't been in at 6fs since late March. ONE STARRY NITE makes 20th start since Dec. 6; has won at Belmont on fast, good and muddy tracks. Eighth Race -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Rereadthefootnotes 2. Early Response 3. William Thomas
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It's been nine months since REREADTHEFOOTNOTES was bumped at break and led for a half-mile in the B.F. Bongard vs. Trinity Magic (who would come back to win Sleepy Hollow by seven lengths on NY Showcase Day); won off workouts with Garcia to begin career, has some tactical options drawn outside rival speeds MILLER'S MINT and WILLIAM THOMAS, both of which are susceptible to a bounce after big-figure wins through similar fractions in back-to-back races May 30. A pace duel could work to the advantage of EARLY RESPONSE, who is back to dirt after wide trip from post 12 in grassy NY Stallion; clear second at odds-on this condition two back. Ninth Race -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Winning Point 2. Dynaforce 3. Criticism
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Should the seemingly never-ending rain force 1 1/4-mile New York Stakes off turf to main track at 1 1/8 miles, WINNING POINT was eased in slop at Saratoga last summer but otherwise has never been worse than second; would have to hold off BORROWING BASE. On turf, DYNAFORCE had good tightener pressing pace at unsuitably short distance in Gallorette, and the Grade 1 winner gets significant break in weights under the allowance conditions; ran big both races this course and trip last year including boggy-course upset of Mauralakana in Flower Bowl. CRITICISM has Beyered 95 or better five of six U.S. starts, lone exception a loss to DRESS REHEARSAL at 3-5 on good turf after middle move into too-fast pace; had things all her own way in Sheepshead Bay. Tenth Race -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Sir Sapphire 2. Wild Way 3. Show Me the Cash
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If final leg of $350K late pick four is rained off, SIR SAPPHIRE ran his best figures in three races on "good" tracks last fall, and comes off "bid, hung" line first race back from freshening for new barn; timid vote in scramble. WILD WAY comes off paired Beyer tops going short and long on turf with blinkers on; his two best dirt races were nearly as good. SHOW ME THE CASH handled good and yielding turf well last fall, notably a near-miss setting pace in Grade 3 Pilgrim; back with Bruce Brown off a freshening.
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 Re: 6/20 Stake Races
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Jill Byrne Churchill Downs
Jill’s Best Bet
Race 3 Tourelle (7) is a debut runner from the Bill Mott stable with good works and a pedigree to relish the turf.
1st Race: (1) Cat Island (4) McGauley (2) Let’s Go Mambo
2nd Race: (3) Good Mon (6) Lone Cypress (2) Henderson
3rd Race: (7) Tourelle (1) Cobbler’s Reef (3) Happenstance
4th Race: (2) Gold Brew (3) Sky Mission (8) Darboy
5th Race: (7) Lucky Chuck (6) Hoolihan (5) Green N Goldie
6th Race: (1) Final Copy (7) Expect Valididty (2) Canali
7th Race: (7) Letsgetitonmon (6) Frankie Cal (8) Westrock Gold
8th Race: (8) Go West Bert (6) Fisherman’s Wharf (4) Fri Guy
9th Race: (6) Paul’s Gift (3) Silver Doll (8) Stone Runner
10th Race: (8) Holy Anthem (7) Constabulary (2) Hype
11th Race: (11) Louisvilleluminary (7) Becky’s Kitten (1) Roman Racecar (9) Indian Council (2) Steady Eddie
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 Re: 6/20 Stake Races
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 281,537 Likes: 2964 Time to play the Game
Owner
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OP
Owner
Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 281,537 Likes: 2964 Time to play the Game |
Hollwood Park by Brad Free
Best Bet: Socttish Diamond (Race 4)
Race 1: 1.Sangaree 2.Cigar Man 3. Ketchikan Improving
SANGAREE lost his chance at the break last time when he was away dead last, and could only split the field thereafter.The lightly raced (eight starts) Awesome Again colt returned to wo rk fast, and only needs a clean break to win this small-field N2X that offe r s minimal wa g e ring va l u e. CIGAR MAN ran too bad to believe in the same race as the top choice. He finished last by more than 27 lengths in a race that must be disregarded. CIGAR MAN finished a good second one start back in a similar N2X, and fits off that. KETCHIKAN was a good horse once upon a time.Runner-up in the G2 Louisiana Derby in 2007, he makes his second start for tra i ner Richard Mandella while stretching to a route of gr o u n d .He can improve.
Race 2: 1.Kami D B C 2. Veranda Cafe 3.Mar Fina
KAMI D B C ran well enough to win last out. She set a strong pace, and we a kened to second while earning a figure usually is good enough to win a maiden-25. KAMI D B C shortens to five and a half, she is quick, and has current fo rm .She is the “ n ow ” filly and the one to beat. H oweve r, V E R A N DA CAFE and MAR FINA both drop into maiden-claiming races for the first time, after losing to spec i a l - weight company last year at 2. V E R A N DA CAFE battled up front in a hot race at Del Mar that produced graded stakes winner Evita Argentina, while MAR FINA exits a Churchill Downs maiden race won last year by none other than Rachel Alex a n d ra .B o t h c o m e b a ck droppers have winning stabl e s. ANNIE’S LOADED is a firster by the good debut sire Decarchy.
Race 3: 1.Mt.Orient 2.Raingear 3.Mr .Wolverine M T.ORIENT can wire the field.The 6-for-28 pro won at a mile last time when he beat lower-class Golden Gate claimers, and though this $40k claiming field is tougher, MT. ORIENT is ra zor sharp and the speed of the field. He has won three times around two turn s, and can be long gone again. RAINGEAR is a new face to this type of race (claiming turf route). An allowance spri n t e r, he drops in for a tag and stretches to two turn s.His turf sprint win March 15 is good enough to win this mile ra c e. M R .WO LVERINE once wo u l d h ave crushed these.He won the $150k Khaled here last summer, finished second in a stake in March, and now is in for $40k.T h e n e g a t i ve drop is not right, even if he was once good enough.
Race 4: 1.Scottish Diamond 2.Owners Manual 3.Bad Bo y S C OTTISH DIAMOND is fast, figures to clear the field and open a daylight lead, and race gate to wire as the most probable winner on the card.He won his last two starts setting or pressing fast fra c t i o n s.This time, he should be loose with no pressure. G o n e.OW NERS MANUEL returns in a claiming race for his first start since fall 2008.The fo rmer allowance sprinter has a series of fast wo rks at Santa Anita, runs well fresh (debut winner, allowance winner off a break), and should fire first start back for the Bobby Fra n kel stabl e. BAD BOY was claimed by Mike Mitchell off a close-call loss by a neck .He fits on numbers and first-off-the-claim trainer pattern . The problem is he is none too genuine in the shadow of the wire. He is 2-fo r - 3 0 .
Race 5: 1. Kumiva 2.Bishop of Derry 3.Dynamic Range
Two promising maidens, KUMIVA and BISHOP OF DERRY, figure to dominate this maiden turf route.KUMIA fo l l owed his good debu t with a solid runner-up finish stretching to two turns on gra s s.He closed well from behind a slow pace, and adds bl i n ke r s. A s s u m i n g he stays closer to the front, he can win third time out. H oweve r, the well-regarded BISHOP OF DERRY perfo rmed admira bly first time out and appears to have a bright future. L i ke the top pick, ‘ D E R RY also was sired by Giant’s Causeway.‘ D E R RY is out of the highclass turf dam Ye s t e r d ay.BISHOP OF DERRY ran well in his late-running fo u rth-place debut and figures to take a major step fo r wa r d second time out. DYNAMIC RANGE has been gelded since his last start . He ran an improved race second time, fo l l owed by a flat t h i r d . He gets a jockey switch along with the ultimate equipment change. But the gut feeling is the top two are ve ry good colts with b right futures.
Race 6: 1.Scilly 2.Apache Annie 3.Call Al y
Turf Pa radise shippers SCILLY and APACHE ANNIE make their first local start in a claiming sprint for 3-year-old fillies; both are qualified to win.The edge goes to SCILLY. She crushed claiming fillies twice in Ari zona, then was ove rmatched her last three start s. S h e is back in a claimer, racing over a tra ck she has been wo rking on, and she has speed for a good trip behind likely pacesetter NINE TO DINE.When that one fa d e s, SCILLY can be first to attack .A PACHE ANNIE finished first or second all four starts this year vs. lesser company in Ari zo n a .She wins ra c e s, trainer Eric Kruljac is capable of springing upsets, and ‘ANNIE will be finishing. Both shippers could start at a hint of a price against a modest field of locals. CALL ALY raced wide and ran poorly last time. She switches to Joel Rosari o, and her runner-up finish one start back makes her an obvious contender from off the pace.NINE TO DINE will lead as far as she can, but the top choice will give her pressure.
Race 7: 1.Plasma Beam 2. Payment Approved 3.Via Zavata
PLASMA BEAM is the obvious chalk, second start fo l l owing a super runner-up debut on this tra ck .He set a fast pace, finished nearly four lengths clear of third, and trained well since. Logical and sensibl e, it will take a good maiden to beat him. PAY M E N T A P P ROVED showed much ability last fall when he set fast fractions and finished second in a highly rated maiden race won by subsequent Sunland stakes winner Dos and Donts. First start since, with a solid wo rkout pattern for trainer Vladimir Cerin, PAY M E N T A P P ROVED looks like he is cra n ked and ready.VIA ZAVATA had a tough trip first out, a promising third in the same race as the top c h o i c e.HUNCH is bred to win early (by Lion Heart ) ; NEVER looms the potential upsetter. Trainer Bob Baffe rt occasionally sneaks in a high-odds debut winner.
Race 8: 1. Pericia Fina 2.Kicken Vixen 3. Talktoomuch
PERICIA FINA can spring a mild upset in this wide-open N1X filly-mare turf route. A multiple winner in Chile, she gets a wa ke - u p j o ckey switch to Victor Espinoza and returns to the distance (mile and one eighth) of her best U. S. e f fo rt, a second-place finish by a head at this level in March. A closer, she has been compromised by the pace scenario in recent ra c e s s. She could be compromised again here, too. But if the fractions get really slow, and the race turns into a quarter-mile sprint for home, PERECIA FINA might be the best finisher in the field. She should start at a pri c e. KICKEN VIXEN bombed in her first against winners, finishing a dull fo u rth in the same race the top choice ex i t s. H oweve r, KICKEN VIXEN conceiva bly could be loose out front in this paceless nine-furlong turf ra c e. If she clears, she could get brave. TA L K TOOMUCH upset a field of mutliple-winning $40k claimers last time out.This first-leve l a l l owance field might not be much better.
Race 9: 1.Cape Truth 2.Grazen 3.Scorewithcater
CAPE T RUTH had no shot in Lone Star Derby when he broke slow and raced three- and four-wide eve ry turn . It was a throwout ra c e for the colt who was impressive winning a fast-pace allowance race one start back on this surfa c e. CAPE T RUTH is 2-for-2 on synt h e t i c, and might simply be the fastest in the field.That assumes he puts away GRAZEN.The latter won a fast sprint, then slowe d d own to a crawl and won a N1X after walking on the lead in 50 seconds. Don’t know how well he can finish a route with legitimate f ra c t i o n s, but you cannot knock a horse seeking his third win of the meet..S C O R E T W I T C ATER was outclassed in the G2 Peter Pa n . He has won four of 10 howeve r, and look who he beast three stars back (the Ke n t u cky Derby winner). MISREMEMBERED may be placed too low. He is 2-for-2 this meet in slow-pace routes. He might be good enough.
Race 10: 1.Zip Quik 2.Alfarabi 3.Amore Di Aleyna
ZIP QUIK made his debut in stakes ra c e, and ran super to finish third against winners in the Willard Proctor. A s ked for no speed, he finished full of run, lost by only three, and galloped out in front of the field.Assuming he shows more zip second time out, the son of City Zip can win. A L FARABI is a son of win-early sire Yes It’s True making his debut for Eoin Harty off a string of solid wo rko u t s. AMORE DI ALEYNA finished a better-than-looked third in his debut, a race won by subsequent Proctor winner Classical Slew.‘ A L E YNA was not asked for his best, finished with interest, he wants more ground, and now he gets it. Look for him late.
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