Courtesy of Mike Dempsey
Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Clm $7,500 (1:00 ET)
#3 Saratoga Lulaby 4/1
#4 Who Needs to Know 9/5
#1 Castle Harbour 6/1
#2 Metulla 3/1
Analysis: #3 Saratoga Lulaby gets the nod in the opener, a rather dull six hose field where none of these look very appealing. The six year old was a smart looking winner two back for this tag, but failed to fire when finding a good spot last out against $10K non winners of two in six months. He should be closer to the pace here and while he is just 1 for 11 on wet tracks, that victory was against Alw-3 optional claimers and he earned a 100 Beyer, his career best. He has lost a few steps since then, but this sure is a weak spot.
#4 Who Needs to Know held on gamely to win by a head last out for this tag. The gelding has been running consistent figs in recent starts and is two for seven on wet tracks. He fits but the price will be on the light side.
#1 Castle Harbour stretches out so he could be a threat to steal this on the front. The barn is 30% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route, but most of those wins came at Suffolk and Finger Lakes and he is just 1 for 22 on the stretch out here in the Big Apple going back five years.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 1,3,4
TRI: no play
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 7 Alw $16,000s (3:55 ET)
#7 Three in the Bag 7/2
#3 Reptilian Smarts 3/1
#1 Stealth Missile 9/2
#4 More Than a Reason 5/2
Analysis: #7 Three in the Bag is stepping into a tougher spot here after beating $16K non winners of a race in six months last out in his first go for Rice off the claim. The gelding was making his first start off a six month break. The eight year old loves the inner surface (13-7-2-1) and loves running on a wet track (8-5-1-0). He faces a solid group here but looks up to the task for a barn that is 36% winners (with a +ROI) with horses making their second start off a +180 day layoff.
#3 Reptilian Smarts was a sharp winner last out versus $25K claimers, his eighth career start in 13 trips on the inner. This guy reeled off six wins in a row in '08-'09, and looks back on track now as he makes his third start off the bench. The only question is the off track. The six year old has only raced on a wet track once in his 25 race career, a third place finish three back over a good track at Belmont Park versus Alw-3 optional claimers.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 1,3,4,7
TRI: 3,7 / 1,3,4,7 / 1,3,4,5,7
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R4: #1 Triple Latte 8/1
R4: #4 Seattle Dynasty 12/1
R5: #3 Hank the Billymax 10/1
R6: #7 Tonga 15/1
R8: #8 Laylaben 10/1
R9: #5 Penalty Due 10/1
R9: #7 Glance My Way 12/1
Good luck today!