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West regional Elite Eight game analysis Game
is being played at EnergySolutions Arena at Salt Lake City. All times ET.

Butler Bulldogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats (-4, 135), 4:30 p.m.

Even when trailing Syrcause, 54-50, with just over three minutes left in the game, Butler did not divert from its gameplan.

That gameplan – a suffocating man-to-man defense and methodical offense – has been effective in the Bulldogs first three games of the NCAA tournament

"We're not going to say we have the best athletes in the country, but we've got a system and we have to be crisp to execute it," forward Matt Howard said. "We're not going to beat you one-one-one. We play for each other.”

Butler only allowed three opponents this season to score more than 70 points and all three opponents the Bulldogs have faced in the tournament haven’t eclipse the 60-point barrier. Those were prolific offensive teams that averaged 80.9 (Syracuse), 76.5 (Murray State) and 75.3 (UTEP) points per game during the regular season.

With Butler grinding down the shot clock, patiently waiting for the optimal pass or shot, it’s no coincidence the team has played to the under in two straight and nine of its last 11. In those last 11 games, only one team was able to crack 60 points.

Kansas State is a physical team that likes to create turnovers and push the ball in transition off of those miscues. But the Wildcats are in jeopardy of having tired legs after playing a double overtime game against Xavier and having less than 48 hours to prepare for this Elite Eight matchup.

Point guard Denis Clemente played all 48 minutes of K-State’s Sweet 16 game while Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly both logged at least 40 minutes. Frank Martin’s playing rotation does roll nine deep, but he planned on giving the team a light practice Friday afternoon.

"We can't get after these guys [on Friday]," Martin said. "We have to coach them through their minds."

Clemente and Pullen have averaged 46 points a game in this tournament but you get the feeling if both somehow have an off night, K-State is going down.

This game is sure to be played at slower pace than what the Wildcats would prefer. The total has already been bet down from an opener of 140 to as low as 135 now.

Butler will be eager to advance to Indianapolis where it would play in front of a home crowd. Expect this to be a tight one, but the battle-tested team will prevail in the end.

Prediction: Kansas State 65, Butler 63

Butler (31-4) vs. Kansas State (29-7)

FACTS & STATS: Site: EnergySolutions Arena (19,120) -- Salt Lake City, Utah. Television: CBS. NCAA Tournament Record: Butler 11-9, Kansas State 31-27. Series Record: First-ever meeting.

GAME NOTES: The dance continues for at least one "Cinderella", as the surprising Butler Bulldogs take on the Kansas State Wildcats in the 2010 NCAA Tournament West Regional final at EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City this afternoon.

As a fifth seed, Butler has set a new school record as well as a Horizon League record for the most wins in a season by posting a 63-59 triumph over top-seeded Syracuse two nights ago. The win was the 31st of the year for a Bulldog squad that has gone farther in the NCAA Tournament than any previous competitor from the Horizon League.

Butler, which defeated UTEP (77-59) and Murray State (54-52) in the first and second rounds of the 72nd annual event, respectively, is also enjoying the nation's longest win streak at the moment, numbering 23 since the team last faltered a few days before Christmas at UAB. The Bulldogs have now won at least 26 games in four consecutive campaigns and have set a new program and conference record for the most victories over the span (116).

As for the second-seeded Wildcats, they went from double-digit wins against North Texas and BYU in the first two rounds of the tourney, to having to battle into double-overtime on Thursday night in a thrilling 101-96 final versus Xavier. Kansas State is now in the "Elite Eight" for the first time since 1988 and improved its all-time record in the event to 31-27. The Wildcats, ranked seventh in the most recent AP Poll, are playing in Salt Lake City for the third time, appearing here in 1981 when they topped Illinois, but then bowed to North Carolina and again six years later as the team knocked off Georgia before suffering defeat at the hands of UNLV.

This game marks the first-ever meeting between Butler and Kansas State on the hardwood, and the winner will head to Indianapolis next Saturday to take on either Michigan State or Tennessee in the Final Four.

Ahead by double digits at the break, the Bulldogs appeared to be well on their way to another victory on Thursday night before Syracuse bounced back and made things interesting in the four-point decision. Gordon Hayward stepped up to tally 17 points for the victors, clearing five rebounds as well in 31 minutes of action, while Shelvin Mack accounted for 14 points, six boards and five assists in an effort to disguise the fact that he shot just 5-of-19 from the field and 1-of-10 behind the three-point line. Willie Veasley tacked on 13 points for a squad that picked up only three points from its reserves but turned the ball over just seven times. After 35 games, Hayward remains Butler's top point producer with his 14.9 ppg, and he is also tops on the glass with better than eight rebounds per game, while Mack and Matt Howard pitch in with 14.1 and 11.8 ppg, respectively. As the Bulldogs showed in the round of 16, their goal is to control the pace of games and they pretty much did that against the Orange, which is why the squad has been able to limit opponents to 58.8 ppg to this point in the season.

Guard play was again crucial for the Wildcats on Thursday night as Jacob Pullen punctuated his 28-point effort with a pair of key three-pointers in the second overtime as he helped guide Kansas State to the dramatic win. Pullen finished the night hitting 6-of-12 shots out on the perimeter, the team a collective 8-of-19 beyond the arc. Backcourt mate Denis Clemente contributed 25 points, five rebounds and five assists, followed by Curtis Kelly with 21 points, eight boards, four dishes and a game-high five blocks. The squad got a lift off the bench from Jamar Samuels with his 14 points and five rebounds. The importance of Pullen and Clemente cannot be overstated, given that one of the two has led the team in scoring in each of the last five games and in seven of the last eight. Between them, Pullen and Samuels have connected on a staggering 193 three-pointers, which means the rest of the Wildcats have made good on a collective 55 triples over the course of 36 games. But more than just shooters, Pullen (19.5 ppg) and Clemente (16.5 ppg) have also been responsible for 124 and 153 assists, respectively, so they are the ones who have the most input when it comes to the team's 80.4 ppg scoring average.

Once again, Butler will have to take charge of the tempo and keep the scoring to a minimum in order to advance and play what would essentially be a home game for the Bulldogs in Indianapolis. However, if Pullen and Clemente have anything about setting the tone, it should be coach Frank Martin's club that remains in action next week.

Predicted Outcome: Kansas State 71, Butler 63

Overall Team Offense

The Kansas St. Wildcats are ranked 83 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 45.0% while attempting 59.1 shots per game. The Wildcats shooting percentages include 67.1% for free throw percentage and 36.1% for three point percentage so far this season.

The Butler Bulldogs are ranked 88 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 44.9% while attempting 50.3 shots per game. The Bulldogs shooting percentages include 74.0% for free throw percentage and 34.2% for three point percentage so far this season.

Home and Away

The Kansas St. Wildcats are 14-3 at home this season, and 13-6 against 16-1 opponents.
At home the Wildcats are averaging 79.9 scoring, and holding teams to 65.2 points scored on defense.

The Butler Bulldogs are 12-1 while on the road this season, 20-0 against conference opponents, and 11-4 against non-conference opponents.
On the road, the Bulldogs are averaging 67.7 scoring, and holding teams to 58.2 points scored on defense.

Trends - No. 5 Butler vs No. 2 Kansas St

ATS Trends

Butler

Bulldogs are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog.
Bulldogs are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Bulldogs are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 neutral site games as an underdog.
Bulldogs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.
Bulldogs are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.


Kansas St.

Wildcats are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
Wildcats are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Horizon League.
Wildcats are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.
Wildcats are 11-2-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Wildcats are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Wildcats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Wildcats are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
Wildcats are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
Wildcats are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Wildcats are 41-20-2 ATS in their last 63 Saturday games.
Wildcats are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.


OU Trends

Butler

Under is 7-1 in Bulldogs last 8 overall.
Under is 7-1 in Bulldogs last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 non-conference games.
Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 9-3 in Bulldogs last 12 Saturday games.
Over is 11-4 in Bulldogs last 15 neutral site games.


Kansas St.

Under is 4-1-1 in Wildcats last 6 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1-1 in Wildcats last 6 Saturday games.
Over is 6-2 in Wildcats last 8 neutral site games as a favorite.
Under is 5-2-1 in Wildcats last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 7-3 in Wildcats last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Can the Butler do it?

This or similar headlines will appear across the country for the West Regional final and what it lacks in originally, it makes up for in convenience. A season ago, NCAA administrators realized they could have a home court advantage on their hands and while they welcomed the extra revenue of having Michigan State make it to the championship game, they had to be pleased that talent won out and North Carolina won the title, thus avoiding criticism for a team having football sized crowd edge in the sports most important contest.

Here we are one year later and the very same thing could occur again if Butler (31-4, 15-20 ATS) wins yet again, this time taking down the No. 2 seed out West in Kansas State (29-7, 21-9-1 ATS). Either way, the Bulldogs are heading back to Indianapolis after this Elite Eight encounter, but they might be doing so as the unofficial host of the Final Four with the triumph.

Butler was the aggressor all night against top-seeded Syracuse and out-worked the Orangemen over large expanses of the contest. The Bulldogs put Syracuse on the defensive from the start in building 10-point halftime lead. Butler’s greatness and toughness came to light after Syracuse had stormed back to take 54-50. Butler showed bulldog determination, scoring the next 11 points and the Orangemen’s tank went to empty. No wonder these Bulldogs are 22-7 ATS as underdogs.

Kansas State overcame more disappointments than a Cubs fan Thursday night in finally getting Xavier to succumb 101-96 in double overtime, with backers earning surprising Push. The Musketeers were like a cat, with Jordan Crawford and Terrell Holloway draining big shot after big shot to keep Xavier coming back time after time.

The Wildcats had guards that could also perform in the clutch as Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente totaled 53 points (compared to Xavier duo that had 58). When the K-State got to the century mark in points, Xavier’s nine lives had expired and the Wildcats are 12-1 ATS after one or more Over’s this season.

Bookmaker.com has Kansas State as four-point favorites to advance to Final Four for the first time since 1964. The Wildcats are 18-6-1 ATS as a favorite this season, but will have less 40 hours to rest and recover from a taxing contest with so much at stake. With the total at 134.5, K-State is 16-6 OVER away from Manhattan having won four of their last five games.

Butler would prefer to change the pace of this matchup, since they are 5-12 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5.The Bulldogs are 15-6 OVER in road games after allowing 60 points or less in two straight contests, winning by 8.1 points a game.

This West finale starts just after 4:30 Eastern and in the last 21 years, only twice has a 5-seed faced a 2-seed in this round and each time the lower seed pulled the outright upset. (In 2005 and 1996)

Power Line – Kansas State by 3