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East regional Elite Eight game analysis

Game is being played in Syracuse, N.Y. All times ET.

No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats (-3.5, 133.5) vs. No. 2 West Virginia Mountaineers, 7 p.m.

Fact or fiction: West Virginia would be favored over every other team left in the tournament, except Kentucky.

If you say fact, then tonight’s East regional final in Syracuse is technically a pseudo-national title game. If you say fiction, well, there are a lot of folks out there that would disagree with you.

Either way, it’s a mammoth game between two exceptional teams.

Kentucky has yet to be tested in the tournament and is considered the favorite to win the whole shebang. But not everyone’s ready to concede the title to John Calipari’s Wildcats, including Cornell coach Steve Donahue.

“I think there’s a lot of positives about Kentucky,” Donahue said after losing by 17 to the ‘Cats on Thursday. “My concern is that I don’t necessarily think for 40 minutes that they may be able to handle this against a team like us that’s a little longer and athletic with experience. Maybe the next game. West Virginia is terrific.”

The youth card is always the first to be played by folks looking to knock Kentucky. They do start three freshmen, with a fourth the first to come off the bench so it’s a valid concern. But those four freshmen – John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Eric Bledsoe and Daniel Orton – are future NBA lottery picks. Would you trade NBA talent for experience?

West Virginia isn’t quite as loaded as Kentucky, but the Mountaineers are certainly not void of NBA talent. Senior Da’Sean Butler and sophomore Devin Ebanks both have futures in the Association.

But where West Virginia doesn’t match up well with Kentucky is the size of their frontline.

“Quite frankly, people with size bother us, because we're not that big,” West Virginia coach Bob Huggins said before the Big East Championship Game against Greg Monroe and Georgetown.

Monroe and the Hoyas were big, but Kentucky, featuring Cousins (6-11), Orton (6-10) and Patrick Patterson (6-9) are gigantic.

Ebanks (6-9) is the Mountaineers’ tallest player. That hasn’t hindered West Virginia on the backboards, though. They thrive off of offensive rebounds (19 against Washington), but if they don’t get that kind output against Kentucky, where will their points come from?

The Mountaineers are also banged-up. They’ll be without starting point guard Darryl Bryant for a second straight game, and Butler injured his shooting hand in Thursday’s win over Washington. Butler’s hand was wrapped in ice after the game, but the senior says he’ll be ready to go against Kentucky.

Even with the injury concerns, there are plenty of believers in the Mountaineers. The line opened at most books at Kentucky -4, but has been bet down to -3.5 at some shops.

Prediction: Kentucky 67, West Virginia 65

West Virginia (30-6) vs.na or Baylor next Saturday in Indianapolis.na). Three UK starters are freshmen, and while youth can be a detriment, Calipari's squad has been dominant, winning its first and second round games by 29 and 30 points, respectively, prior to the triumph over Cornell. The Wildcats are making their record 50th NCAA Tournament appearance and own a 101-44 record in the event all-time. They are 35-2 overall this season and won both the SEC regular season and tournament titles.

The Wildcats own a 13-4 series advantage over the Mountaineers, which includes seven straight wins over WVU.

Prior to the "Sweet 16" matchup with Washington, West Virginia starting point guard Darryl "Truck" Bryant broke his foot in practice, knocking him out of the tournament. Many wondered how the loss would affect the Mountaineers, and early on the team did struggle at times offensively against the Huskies. Fortunately, WVU played tremendous defense, limiting Washington to 39.3 percent shooting from the floor while forcing 21 turnovers. Rebounding was a huge key to the Mountaineers as well, as they finished with a 49-29 edge on the boards. Kevin Jones led three double-digit scorers with 18 points, and he ripped down eight rebounds as well. Da'Sean Butler added 14 points, and Devin Ebanks finished with a dozen. Butler is the team's leading scorer through 36 games with 17.4 ppg, while Jones (13.7 ppg, 7.2 rpg) and Ebanks (12.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg) are solid contributors as well. WVU is generating 72.8 ppg while limiting foes to 63.1 ppg.

Kentucky has advanced to the Regional Finals for the 31st time in program history, and there are a few obvious reasons for the 17-point win over Cornell. Above all, it was a sensational defensive effort that saw the Wildcats limit the Big Red to 33.3 percent shooting from the floor, including a 5-of-21 effort from three-point range, 20 percent below the club's average efficiency from behind the arc. Rebounding was also key to the victory, as Kentucky earned a 41-28 edge on the boards. DeMarcus Cousins scored 16 points, while fellow freshman Eric Bledsoe added 12 points. Patrick Patterson ripped down 12 rebounds, and John Wall dished out eight assists. Wall has racked up 236 assists this season, and he has 62 steals as well to go along with 16.6 ppg. Cousins provides 15.1 ppg and 9.9 rpg, while Patterson posts 14.5 ppg. Bledsoe is netting 11.4 ppg for Kentucky, which is scoring 79.6 ppg while permitting just 64.7 ppg on 37.8 percent shooting by opponents.

There is no doubt that Kentucky is the most talented team remaining in this tournament. West Virginia will certainly give the Wildcats a better challenge than the other three opponents to date, but Cousins and Patterson will be too much inside.

Predicted Outcome: Kentucky 72, West Virginia 64

Overall Team Offense

The Kentucky Wildcats are ranked 10 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 48.3% while attempting 58.4 shots per game. The Wildcats shooting percentages include 67.2% for free throw percentage and 34.1% for three point percentage so far this season.

The West Virginia Mountaineers are ranked 177 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 43.2% while attempting 58.1 shots per game. The Mountaineers shooting percentages include 70.4% for free throw percentage and 33.3% for three point percentage so far this season.


Home and Away

The Kentucky Wildcats are 19-0 at home this season, and 17-2 against 18-0 opponents.
At home the Wildcats are averaging 83.4 scoring, and holding teams to 65.5 points scored on defense.

The West Virginia Mountaineers are 7-4 while on the road this season, 16-5 against conference opponents, and 14-1 against non-conference opponents.

On the road, the Mountaineers are averaging 74.8 scoring, and holding teams to 70.5 points scored on defense.

Trends - No. 2 West Virginia vs No. 1 Kentucky

ATS Trends

West Virginia

Mountaineers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Mountaineers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog.
Mountaineers are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 NCAA Tournament games.
Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Mountaineers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.


Kentucky

Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games.
Wildcats are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Big East.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 NCAA Tournament games.
Wildcats are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.


OU Trends

West Virginia

Under is 7-0 in Mountaineers last 7 overall.
Under is 6-0 in Mountaineers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 7-0 in Mountaineers last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 7-0 in Mountaineers last 7 neutral site games.
Under is 4-1 in Mountaineers last 5 non-conference games.
Under is 20-7 in Mountaineers last 27 games following a ATS win.


Kentucky

Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 Saturday games.
Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
Over is 7-2 in Wildcats last 9 non-conference games.
Under is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 games following a ATS win.
Over is 13-6 in Wildcats last 19 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.

Rarity in East Regional Final

In what many are calling the greatest NCAA Tournament ever, at the very least to this point, the East Region has been a sea of tranquility, at least in part. Top seeds Kentucky and West Virginia are the only No. 1 and No. 2 seeds to make to the Elite Eight field from the same region and these two squads are combined 6-0 SU and ATS to this juncture. For those who would run over Cinderella’s glass slipper and discard her to the side of the road, this is the right matchup.


Kentucky (35-2, 20-15 ATS) became the best bet to win the NCAA Tournament after Kansas was derailed and they look the part, winning by 25.3 points per game in three tries. It’s amusing to read Kentucky detractors, this team is too young, they don’t shoot the ball well against zone defenses and Ashley Judd doesn’t look that hot in blue. While all or some of this conjecture might be true, coach John Calipari had arguably the most talented team coming into the tournament and as opposed to Kansas who could match them ability-wise, coach Cal’s players have an obvious desire to win and convincingly.

Kentucky has moved to 6-0 ATS in NCAA tourney clashes and their defense is unrelenting, with no team shooting over 36 percent in last three games and only Mississippi State converting over 40 percent among the previous six opponents.

West Virginia (30-6, 16-19 ATS) can also “D” it up with their physical nature. The Mountaineers have also not permitted a team to shoot over 40 percent in the tournament and six of last seven foes have not been able to make four of ten shot attempts. Coach Bob Huggins squad has won nine in a row (6-3 ATS) by locking down shooters and playing volleyball with their own missed shots.

Against Washington, they owned the glass with a 49-29 advantage and if they can convert over 76 percent from the charity stripe (13-17) against Kentucky, they could move to 22-4 ATS in all post-season tournament games since 1997.

Kentucky is a four-point pick at Bookmaker.com, with total of 133.5 and 13-6 ATS versus defensive teams holding opponents to 42 percent or less shooting and 7-1 ATS in previous eight Saturday assignments. The Wildcats are 9-1 OVER after three consecutive contests allowing 37 percent or less shooting. West Virginia is 6-0 ATS after a trio of teams have failed to score 60 or more points against them and 11-3 UNDER after they’ve covered the spread this season.

Watch for if Bob Huggins brings out their 1-3-1 zone sooner against Kentucky. Though West Virginia doesn’t use it a great deal in any given game, typically it has been at the end of a contest and it has worked like Mariano Rivera in closing out games. Because of Kentucky’s size, they might put John Wall and Patrick Patterson in the corners to get shots and set backside screens for lob attempts to either or both.

Maybe it just seems peculiar, but a 1 vs. 2 matchup only happens 35 percent of the time in the Elite Eight according to BracketScience.com since the field went to 64 teams. The higher seed is a mere 18-17 SU, with point differential of +1.4.

Power Line – Kentucky by 5