Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar Controlling the Boards Tennessee/Michagan St Info 3/28

Tennessee (28-8) vs.na with his effort on Friday. Raymar Morgan was limited to just seven points on Friday and the Spartans will need more from their second-leading scorer (11.5 ppg) and rebounder (6.1 rpg) today. Summers (10.9 ppg) and Draymond Green (9.7 ppg, 8.0 rpg and 3.1 apg) are two other players that will need to make significant contributions as well.

The Spartans are missing their best ball-handler once again and that is not going to be easy to overcome against Tennessee. Expect the Vols' pressure to create plenty of turnovers and make the difference today.

Predicted Outcome: Tennessee 70, Michigan State 62

Overall Team Offense

The Michigan St Spartans are ranked 22 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 47.2% while attempting 56.4 shots per game. The Spartans shooting percentages include 68.6% for free throw percentage and 34.4% for three point percentage so far this season.

The Tennessee Volunteers are ranked 63 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 45.5% while attempting 59.1 shots per game. The Volunteers shooting percentages include 67.1% for free throw percentage and 31.7% for three point percentage so far this season.


Home and Away

The Michigan St Spartans are 15-2 at home this season, and 14-5 against 13-3 opponents.
At home the Spartans are averaging 74.2 scoring, and holding teams to 61.9 points scored on defense.

The Tennessee Volunteers are 5-5 while on the road this season, 13-6 against conference opponents, and 15-2 against non-conference opponents.

On the road, the Volunteers are averaging 63.9 scoring, and holding teams to 67.6 points scored on defense

Trends - No. 6 Tennessee vs No. 5 Michigan St

ATS Trends

Tennessee

Volunteers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Volunteers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Volunteers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Volunteers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Ten.
Volunteers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
Volunteers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Volunteers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Volunteers are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.
Volunteers are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Volunteers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.


Michigan St

Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Southeastern.
Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Spartans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games.
Spartans are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games as an underdog.
Spartans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Spartans are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 Sunday games.
Spartans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Spartans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Spartans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Spartans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.


OU Trends

Tennessee

Under is 3-0-1 in Volunteers last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Under is 10-1 in Volunteers last 11 Sunday games.
Under is 5-1-1 in Volunteers last 7 neutral site games as a favorite.
Under is 7-2-1 in Volunteers last 10 games as a favorite.
Under is 6-2-1 in Volunteers last 9 neutral site games.
Over is 5-2 in Volunteers last 7 games following a ATS win.
Under is 5-2 in Volunteers last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Under is 22-9-1 in Volunteers last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 33-14-1 in Volunteers last 48 overall.
Under is 22-10-1 in Volunteers last 33 games following a S.U. win.


Michigan St

Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.
Under is 26-9 in Spartans last 35 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Under is 30-11-1 in Spartans last 42 games as an underdog.
Under is 8-3 in Spartans last 11 games following a ATS win.
Over is 5-2 in Spartans last 7 vs. Southeastern.
Over is 5-2 in Spartans last 7 neutral site games.

Midwest regional Elite Eight

Games to be played at St. Louis Friday. All times ET.

No. 5 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers (-1, 135.5), 2:20 p.m.

We will either see someone familiar or someone new go to the Final Four from the Midwest Regional.

Tennessee (28-8) is never been to the Elite Eight before this year, let alone a Final Four. Michigan State (27-8), one of the nation’s powers, seeks a sixth Final Four trip since 1999.

Finally, a team took advantage of Ohio State’s lack of depth. Tennessee had 10 players see action Friday, compared to OSU’s seven (one more than usual, due to foul trouble). Fatigue finally nailed the Buckeyes during crunch time and the Vols earned a 76-73 win.

“I told our team, ‘It’s our team vs. their six,’” Volunteers coach Bruce Pearl said after the victory. “We were a better 10 than their six.”

The J.P. Prince trend came through again for Tennessee. In the Vols’ last 13 games, they’re 10-0 when the 6-foot-7 guard scores in double figures and 0-3 when he doesn’t. He had 14 points, second on the team behind Wayne Chism, who had a great game down low, with 22 points and 11 rebounds.

Michigan State rallied from a 7-point halftime deficit to get past upstart Northern Iowa 59-52.

And it was Korie Lucious who hit the big shot again. Thrown into the fire after the team’s best player, Kalin Lucas, went down with a ruptured Achilles, Lucious’ spin-around jumper in the closing moments clinched the victory.

Lucious scored 10 points, while Durrell Summers had 19 points and seven rebounds. Summers, who averages 10.7 ppg, had 26 points when the Spartans got past Maryland 85-83 in the second round and has become a big X-factor for MSU the way Prince is for Tennessee.

Tennessee outrebounded Ohio State 36-23, with a whopping 18 boards on the offensive end. The Spartans average nearly 10 more rebounds per game than their opponent. If the Vols can hold their own on the glass, that can go a long way.

Buckeyes coach Thad Matta said Tennessee’s defense had been under-covered by the media all season and it was the toughest his team had faced this season.

This may be a rare instance where the proof lies with the oddsmakers. In Tennessee’s last 48 games, the under is 33-14-1.

Lucious was a difference maker for MSU Friday. He also had six rebounds, four assists and four steals with only two turnovers. But compared to the “don’t let them get past you” defense of the Panthers, the Volunteers will unleash a new level of on-the-ball pressure the inexperienced point guard has yet to see.

And whereas Michigan State overmatched Northern Iowa in athleticism, the Spartans may look sluggish compared to their opponent Sunday.

The depth and athleticism of the Volunteers may finally be too much for the banged-up Spartans, who have gotten by with lots of heart but no Lucas and hobbled starters Chris Allen and Delvon Roe.

If Chism can stay out of foul trouble down low and not allow scores of second-half points by the Spartans — and make sure Lucious doesn’t thrive outside — Tennessee will be going to the Final Four for the first time.

Prediction: Tennessee 71, Michigan State 66

Something old and something new in Midwest Final

Michigan State is back in the Elite Eight, trying to make their sixth Final Four appearance in a dozen years. Tennessee on the other hand is making their debut as one of the eight finalists in contention for the national championship. Each has endured the most unlikely of circumstances to arrive at this point.


The Spartans (27-8, 14-20 ATS) are battered, bruised and one other factor, still playing. Durrell Summers seems to have taken it upon himself to be the leader with leading scorer Kalin Lucas out. Summers had 19 points in the win over Northern Iowa (26 vs. Maryland) and he and his teammates still believe they have ways to go. “It feels great to be back," forward Draymond Green said of being among the last eight teams. "We've still got bigger dreams."

Michigan State has been thru winning streaks, injuries, suspensions and benching, yet continues to press on. "That's kind of enjoyable, to find a way," coach Tom Izzo said. "It's somewhat more rewarding than the last two." Michigan State has covered 21 of their last 29 Sunday games.

Tennessee (28-8, 15-17-1 ATS) head coach Bruce Pearl knows his team and knows his math which led to upset of Ohio State. “I told our team, 'It's our team vs. their six,"' Pearl said. "We were a better 10 than their six." For Vols fans and backers, the Elite Eight is a better number than the Sweet 16.

Wayne Chism and Brian Williams used their size and bulk to dominate Ohio State in the paint, out-rebounding the Buckeyes 41-29 and scoring 50 of their 76 points in the lane area. Pearl has taken a collection of players that could have folded their tent and disappeared when their leading scorer Tyler Smith was suspended for the year and three other players were disciplined for varying lengths of time, instead he sold them on team and different leaders emerged, leading to Tennessee on 10-2 (6-5-1 ATS) closing run. The Volunteers are 5-1-1 ATS in last seven matchups with teams with winning records.

Tennessee is a two-point favorite at Sportsbook.com, with total of 135.5 and they are 5-1-1 ATS against the Big Ten of late. The Vols will have to continue to play great defense and be prepared for Spartans transition game. Rebounding will be huge factor for Tennessee, as Michigan State is 25-3 SU (11-16 ATS) when they grab more boards than the opponent. Look for Volunteers to again work the ball inside where Izzo’s team doesn’t have a great deal of height.

The Spartans will need a complete team effort once again. Summers and Raymar Morgan need to be the scoring leaders and receive plenty of moxie from Korie Lucious and Green, who comes off the bench. Michigan State is 7-2 ATS in NCAA Tournament tilts and 6-2-1 ATS as a neutral site underdog.

Concerning the total, Michigan State is 7-3-1 UNDER after a cover and Tennessee is 8-2 UNDER since Jan. 31 as a favorite.

Whatever the outcome, the winner will be the lowest seed in the Final Four since 2006 when 11th seeded George Mason waltzed into the surroundings.

Power Line – Tennessee by 1