Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar Controlling the Boards Michigan St/Butler Trends & Notes 4/3

Michigan State vs. Butler Betting Preview

The first semi-final of the Final Four is the most unusual pairing since No.11 George Mason was matched against No. 3 Florida in 2006. Though we weren’t really certain just how good the Gators truly were until a couple days later, at least they were among the top 12 seeds in that tournament. This year, Michigan State and Butler are a pair of five seeds, which happens to be the lowest matchup of seeds since fifth-seeded Florida faced eighth-seeded North Carolina ten years ago.

Doing it the Izzo way

Michigan State (28-8, 15-20 ATS) is trying to return to national championship game and has had quite a journey. In this tournament alone, the Spartans have wins by 1, 2 and 3 points and “beat down” of Northern Iowa by a whole seven points. Michigan State players do deserve props for making it this far, since it would appear unlikely that any of the other three teams still playing college basketball would be here if they lost their leading scorer like Tom Izzo’s team did in Kalin Lucas.

The Spartans are 19-8 ATS in all neutral court games over the last three seasons and will have to follow the same formula that got them to Indianapolis. Durrell Summers is averaging 22 points in last three contests, scoring from inside and out. Raymar Morgan has more picked his spots, but made a volume of buckets when his team needed it most. Draymond Green is big body that is difficult to maneuver on either side of the floor and is among the reasons Michigan State outrebounds teams by 8.7 per contest. Korie Lucious has stepped his game taking over the point and though he makes the occasional head-shaking turnover, he’s been an exceptional facilitator and has a feel when to take the right shot. The Spartans are 15-6 ATS away from home having won four of their last five games over the last two years.

Bulldogs believe in the “Butler Way”

Cinderella doesn’t get to this dance scrubbing floors, which by why Butler (32-4, 16-20 ATS) is not a fairly tale. The Bulldogs have won 24 consecutive games (13-11 ATS) with a staunch defense, not having surrendered more than 59 points in the tournament and doing so just once in previous 12 encounters. This makes them difficult to beat as a coach that has faced Butler noted.

“They’re the best late-game defensive team I’ve played against, with switching and making all the right decisions. They’re really good in late-game decisions both offensively and defensively. I was really impressed. Everything they do is so solid.”

Butler is up to 7-3 ATS in the NCAA’s and while Brad Stevens looks like Tom Izzo’s unpaid assistant in charge of taping opposing teams games, this dude can coach. He’s put together this smothering help-defense and brings calmness, as you don’t see Butler players wide-eyed when the opponent makes a surge.

Sophomore point guard Ronald Nored said this, “If you beat us, it won’t be because you rattled us.”

Butler will experiment with four guards and Gordon Hayward against the Spartans to see how they adjust. This offense has given the Bulldogs a quickness edge which opens up the lane for different players to take their man off the bounce or run “pick and rolls” or “pick and pops” in isolation sequences.

This is close

Sportsbook.com has Butler as one-point favorites, with total of 126.
Coach Stevens has a motto made for texting-TGHT- which stands for, The Game Honors Toughness. Butler showed their “onions” giving away leads to Syracuse and Kansas State, before bulling the neck and putting each team away in the final minutes. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less in consecutive contests and 7-1 against the number when seeded 5th to 8th in the NCAA tournament. They are 8-0 OVER on a neutral court floor when the total is 129.5 or less, however the crowd will be far from neutral with hometown team getting the support from locals.

Michigan State is 29-15 ATS in all their NCAA appearances over the last 13 years and is 8-1 ATS as a neutral court underdog of six points or less or pick and are 25-11 UNDER versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds a game on the season after 15 or more have been played.

The excitement swells until 6:05 Eastern tip, with Final Four squads off two upset victories like Butler 2-8 ATS.

Power Line - Butler by 3

Michigan State Spartans vs.na-West Virginia game will be rooting for the Bulldogs. And don’t forget this squad is riding a 24-game winning streak.

Only overtime will keep this contest from going under the total, but that's unlikely as Butler will build a lead and maintain it throughout the game.

Prediction: Butler 64, Michigan State 56

Why Michigan State will win and cover –

(Midwest Regional)

Facing Butler means experiencing the rare feeling of being a road team at the Final Four.

Few people outside of the Great Lakes State will be rooting for Michigan State Saturday. The Bulldogs, winners of 24 straight games, are the hometown favorite and small-school darling.

Michigan State has been without its top player, point guard Kalin Lucas. Two other major contributors, the hobbling Chris Allen and Delvon Roe, are playing through pain.

And yet, here the Spartans are.

Michigan State hasn’t lit the world on fire during the NCAA Tournament, winning its four games by a combined 13 points.

And yet, here the Spartans are.

How? Two words: Tom Izzo.

The Spartans have been here before. This is their sixth Final Four in 12 years. This year, as in years past, MSU simply finds a way.

Butler is favored by one point, but MSU was an underdog against Maryland and Tennessee, too.

Butler will struggle with the physicality and athleticism of the Spartans. It will be tough to contain 6-foot-6 forward Draymond Green, 6-foot-8 forward Raymar Morgan and 6-foot-4 guard Durrell Summers.

The game will again rest in the hands of point guard Korie Lucious, who has taken over successfully for Lucas. If he can perform as well as he did in the last two rounds, the Spartans may disappoint much of the nation.

Prediction: Michigan State 66, Butler 64

Michigan State vs.na rode a 31-game surge at the time. Michigan State succumbed to 68-62 to the Blue Devils.

These Bulldogs do not feature NBA lottery picks at multiple positions like those Blue Devils, but the Spartans know what Butler is all about.

“They're not mid-majors,” Roe told the Grand Rapids Press. “You learn when you play these teams not to underestimate them, or you'll end up like the other teams they played this year: out.”

“I'm sure their confidence is sky high,” Lucious noted. “They're going to be real confident because I'm sure they don't want their winning streak to be snapped. So they're going to come out with intensity and we're going to match it.”

Painter of the picture

Purdue faced Michigan State twice this season and shares the state of Indiana with Butler, so Boilermaker head coach Matt Painter is familiar with both participants in Saturday’s first Final Four showdown.

“Butler will push, but they're selective,” Painter said in a Wednesday teleconference. “If it's there, they go. If they get a wide-open shot in transition, they take it. But if not, they make you play and break down.

“But Butler doesn't get the credit they deserve for how tough they are and how good a defensive team they are.”

No team has reached the 60-point mark against the Bulldogs so far in this NCAA Tournament.

Painter, whose team won at Michigan State 76-64 on February 9 before losing to the Spartans 53-44 at home on February 28, said Saturday’s game will be a “race to 60.” In other words, the team that gets to 60 points first wins.

Common opponents

The Bulldogs faced three teams from the Big Ten during the regular season—Northwestern away, Minnesota on a neutral court and Ohio State at home. Butler handled the Wildcats 67-54, fell to the Gophers 82-73 and upset Ohio State 74-66.

Michigan State swept Northwestern with ease, went 2-1 against Minnesota (lost in the conference tournament) and dropped a 74-67 home decision to Ohio State.

Both Michigan State and Butler also faced Valparaiso. The Spartans destroyed Valpo 90-60 at home on November 22. The Bulldogs pulled out a 74-69 road victory on February 26.

Trending topics

The Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games at neutral sites (and this is, technically, a neutral site). They are also 25-10-1 in their last 36 NCAA Tournament contests.

The Bulldogs are 7-3 in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games, 4-1 ATS in their last five overall, and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven against Big Ten opponents.

Both Michigan State (16-18 O/U) and Butler (15-19 O/U) have leaned just slightly toward the under this season. The under is 8-1 in Butler’s last nine overall, but the over is 8-0 in MSU’s last eight against the Horizon League.

Overall Team Offense

The Butler Bulldogs are ranked 88 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 44.9% while attempting 50.1 shots per game. The Bulldogs shooting percentages include 73.9% for free throw percentage and 34.5% for three point percentage so far this season.

The Michigan St Spartans are ranked 22 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 47.2% while attempting 56.3 shots per game. The Spartans shooting percentages include 68.8% for free throw percentage and 34.3% for three point percentage so far this season.

Home and Away

The Butler Bulldogs are 15-0 at home this season, and 20-0 against 12-4 opponents.

At home the Bulldogs are averaging 72.5 scoring, and holding teams to 58.3 points scored on defense.

The Michigan St Spartans are 8-4 while on the road this season, 14-5 against conference opponents, and 14-3 against non-conference opponents.

On the road, the Spartans are averaging 67.9 scoring, and holding teams to 64.0 points scored on defense.

ATS Trends

Michigan St


Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.
Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Spartans are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 NCAA Tournament games.
Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.
Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. Horizon League.


Butler

Bulldogs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Ten.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games.
Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
Bulldogs are 43-21-1 ATS in their last 65 non-conference games.
Bulldogs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.


OU Trends

Michigan St

Over is 8-0 in Spartans last 8 vs. Horizon League.
Over is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 neutral site games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Over is 6-2 in Spartans last 8 neutral site games.
Under is 26-10 in Spartans last 36 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Over is 5-2 in Spartans last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 30-12-1 in Spartans last 43 games as an underdog.


Butler

Under is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 Saturday games.
Under is 8-1 in Bulldogs last 9 overall.
Under is 8-1 in Bulldogs last 9 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 6-1 in Bulldogs last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 6-1 in Bulldogs last 7 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 non-conference games.
Under is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Over is 7-2 in Bulldogs last 9 neutral site games as a favorite.
Over is 11-5 in Bulldogs last 16 neutral site games.

Butler (32-4) vs. Michigan State (28-8)



Saturday, April 3rd, 6:07 p.m. (et)



FACTS & STATS: Site: Lucas Oil Stadium (71,300) -- Indianapolis, Indiana. Television: CBS. NCAA Tournament Record: Butler 12-9, Michigan State 52-22. Series Record: Michigan State leads, 13-10.

GAME NOTES: "Cinderella" is alive and well in this year's NCAA Tournament, as the Butler Bulldogs make their first-ever appearance in the Final Four when they tangle with perennial power Michigan State this Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Butler, which is located in Indianapolis, will be the first team to play in a Final Four in its hometown since UCLA did so back in 1972. The Bulldogs, the No. 5 seed out of the West Region, are riding the nation's longest winning streak at 24 games, last losing at UAB on December 22, 2009. Butler, under the tutelage of third-year coach Brad Stevens, went 18-0 in the Horizon League this season, and won the conference tournament as well. Its 32 wins on the year is both a school and league record. Stevens, who has amassed a record of 88-14 since taking over at Butler, has won the most games in Division I history in his first three seasons.

Butler, which topped the likes of UTEP (77-59), Murray State (54-52), Syracuse (63-59) and Kansas State (63-56) in the tournament thus far, has won 117 games over the past four seasons to set a school and Horizon League record for most wins in a four-year period. The Bulldogs are playing in their fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament and their seventh in the past decade, and they own an all-time tourney record of 12-9.

As for Michigan State, there isn't a more successful team in the country [of late] in terms of Final Four berths, as coach Tom Izzo's club has appeared in six of the last 12 national semifinals. Every four-year player recruited by Izzo has appeared in at least one Final Four before leaving East Lansing.

The Spartans, the No. 5 seed out of the Midwest Region, are 28-8 this season, and their four NCAA Tournament victories over New Mexico State, Maryland, Northern Iowa and Tennessee have come by a combined 13 points -- the lowest total margin of victory of any team to reach the Final Four since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. MSU, which is 7-0 all-time in NCAA Tournament games played in Indianapolis, has two national championships to its credit (1977 and 2000), with the 2000 title won in this very city.

Michigan State is 13-10 all-time against Butler, and the last meeting between the two schools took place on December 20, 1971 in Indianapolis where the Spartans defeated the Bulldogs, 77-71. This is the first time the two have met in the NCAA Tournament, and the first time two No. 5 seeds have squared off in the Final Four.

Both teams rely on some pretty stingy defensive play to achieve their goals, with Butler allowing an average of 59.8 ppg, and Michigan State 64.1 ppg. BU senior forward Willie Veasley noted the similarities between the two teams. "Both teams are very defensive minded. Our focus is defense, and their focus is defense. When their star player [Kalin Lucas] got injured, they had different guys step up. They regrouped from top to bottom. And I've seen that with us. When Gordon (Hayward) or I had to miss a game this season, we've just had different people step up."

Offensively, the Bulldogs boast four double-digit scorers in the starting lineup led by Hayward and his 15.2 ppg. The leading rebounder for the team as well (8.3 rpg), Hayward is a 47.1 percent shooter who has also done a solid job at the free-throw line (.819). Shelvin Mack (14.1 ppg, 3.1 apg), Matt Howard (12.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Veasley (10.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg) round out the productive quartet, helping Butler put up nearly 70 ppg, hit 45 percent of its total shots, 34.6 percent of its three-point attempts and 74 percent of its free throws.

Hayward spoke about the respect he and the rest of the Bulldogs have for the Spartans. "They are just a great team. For us, I don't know if it's as much about the matchups as much as it is about us knowing their personnel. That's been a huge key for us this whole tournament, knowing personnel. You need to know what the other players are doing so you don't have to guard as much. For us, that's really big. I have to credit our coaches for doing such a great job."

Mack continued Hayward's sentiment. "They remind us alot of ourselves. They have similar size. It's just a good opportunity for two physical teams to go out there and play. I think the biggest thing is to come out and play with our hearts. They are going to play as hard as we are, so we need to be willing to do things like sacrifice our bodies for loose balls and rebounds."

Few gave Michigan State a chance to reach the Final Four once Lucas went down with a leg injury in the second-round game against Maryland. The loss of their leading scorer (14.8 ppg, 4.0 apg) meant other guys would need to step up for the Spartans, who average 72.4 ppg on 47.2 field goal accuracy this season. Raymar Morgan (11.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Durrell Summers (11.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg), the MVP of the Midwest Regional after averaging 20 ppg, are the only other active double-digit scorers for Izzo's club, although Draymond Green (9.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg) and Chris Allen (8.5 ppg) aren't far off the pace. All will need to bring their "A" game if MSU is to survive this encounter with an extremely dangerous Butler squad.

Izzo knows his guys has their work cut out for them, particularly in trying to break through the tough defensive job typically turned in by the Bulldog backcourt. "I've been really impressed with both guards.", Izzo said. "I've been really impressed with what seems likes an opening here, and all of a sudden, boom, they close it up so quick. They do not extend. They play a lot like -- I'd say it's more of a team that the guards, like when we had Cleaves and Bell, they play a lot of inside out. But they just don't give you many looks and openings."

Izzo continued his praise of Butler. "I love Butler. I love (coach) Brad (Stevens). I think he's done an incredible job. I really like their players and what they stand for."

Izzo noted that the lack of identifiable star power in the Final Four means a more team-oriented approach is necessary to win it all. "I do think when you look at the four teams that are in it, there's a lot of good players, but I wouldn't say anybody is relying on one player as much. For the most part, I think you got four teams that have earned their way here by probably playing good defense. If there's ever a year when maybe there's some of the four better defensive teams in it, I think this would be the year."

Butler, with its underdog persona, is the darling of this tournament, but there's something to be said for the experience and never-say-die attitude of Michigan State. Expect a close game, with both teams trading blows throughout. In the end, the Bulldogs will prevail behind yet another stellar defensive effort and some clutch shooting down the stretch.

Predicted Outcome: Butler 68, Michigan State 65