Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar Selections Central Fade The Public NCAAF 2010

I will post selections that the public is heavily on at one sports book and you should look to fade the selection because the public is a perennial loser at this sports book.

This will be for CFB on Saturday's Only and I'll make it a point to post every Friday night.

#150 Michigan St -23.5 91.73% Winner
#161 Texas -31 93.46% Loser
#173 Syracuse -7.5 90.30% Winner
#178 Oklahoma St -17 92.21% Winner
#182 Oklahoma -33.5 91.96% Loser
#188 LSU -9.5 90.85% Loser
#191 Wisconsin -19.5 93.62% Winner

Keep in mind this is at one sportsbook only and when I have done this post in the past it put a lot of money in the pockets of the faders. That doesn't mean the public will continue to lose but history has shown that they do. Just in looking at these games these are big school playing weaker teams and with the exception of Syracuse these teams have done well the last few years. I don't think they will lose them all, this is cupcake week number one.

Good luck.

GOOD SHIT!!

Public starts off the first Saturday with a 4-3 mark. Let's see how long this lasts.

Public 4-3 +.7 units
Faders 3-4 -1.4 units

Keep in mind this is just from one sportsbook but it is a very "square" sportsbook all plays listed are what the public has taken and bet with over 90% of the action to the side listed. You should look to fade and take the other side.

Week 2 NCAA

#310 E Carolina -13 91.63% Winner
#334 Miami Ohio -13.5 90.72% Loser
#336 Boston College -17.5 97.03% Loser
#339 BYU +2 90.75% Loser
#348 Tulsa -17 90.58% Loser
#352 Texas A&M -19.5 95.65% Winner
#358 Baylor -15 97.42% Winner
#363 San Diego St -14 96.03% Winner
#366 SMU -11.5 90.13% Winner
#369 Mississippi -20.5 96.10% Loser

A lot of games where the public is on a side with over 90% of the bets with just one sportsbook. Should be interesting to see how this goes. Even at 5-5 the sportsbook makes out nicely. Public needs to hit 6/10 to make money. I'll side with the books on these games.

very good information! Thanks freak!!

This is some really good info here, in the longrun the public will lose, so I imagine this system might be a little bit bumpy early on but by the end of the season this should be a nice moneymaker.

gl!

Week 2 Results

Public 5-5 -.5 units
Faders 5-5 -.5 units

Overall

Public 9-8 +.2 units
Faders 8-9 -1.9 units

Public got beat up early but had a good evening to counter the poor start. The books make out both ways with the public/faders losing juice.

Week 3

#112 Kansas St -3.5 93.47% Winner
#133 Alabama -24 94.27% Winner
#152 Oregon St -20 92.36% Loser
#161 Navy -3 92.56% Winner
#168 W Michigan -3.5 93.09% Loser
#177 Utah -23 94.12% Winner
#203 Middle Tenn St -3.5 90.91% Loser
#205 Troy -3.5 98.11% Loser

The last game is a total puzzler over 98% on 1 side. I think the public wins a few of these today but overall they should be taken to the woodshed. I just can't see them being in the + after today. They need to go 5-3 to make that happen. This should be interesting.

Week 3 Results

Public 4-4 -.4 units
Faders 4-4 -.4 units

Overall

Public 13-12 -.2 units
Faders 12-13 -2.3 units

Books made out again on the public and the faders as both sides lost units. The big public play of Troy -3.5 lost straight up and I couldn't find any reason as to why it was so lopsided in bets.

Will continue with this next Saturday and see if we can get the faders in the win column. Just goes to show public has won 52% of the games and yet is now in the negative and I would be surprised to see it ever back in the plus side.

Week 4

#326 Connecticut -20 93.86% Winner
#333 Air Force -13.5 94.11% Loser
#339 Oklahoma -14 97.40% Loser
#350 Texas -16.5 90.17% Loser
#364 Tennessee -14 93.49 Loser
#366 Indiana -23 90.63% Loser
#377 Baylor -7.5 95.95% Winner
#379 N Carolina -2 96.97% Winner
#384 Utep -11.5 93.81% Loser
#386 UNLV -10.5 96.95% Winner
#387 Oregon -11.5 91.27% Loser
#394 Florida Atlantic -10.5 92.31% Loser

12 plays by the public over 90% and they need to go 7-5 to make money. I would be super surprised to see them win 5 games nonetheless 7. Lots of chalk to eat on Saturday. Stranger things have happened.

Week 4 Results

Public 4-8 -4.8 units
Faders 8-4 +3.6 units

Overall

Public 17-20 -5 units
Faders 20-17 +1.3 units

Public has a major blow up on Saturday as heavily bet teams failed to show up to either win or cover. In all of my years of doing this, I have never seen the public overcome a negative 5 units at any point in the season. Granted right now the faders profit margin is slim and took 4 weeks to get into the plus, but I don't think we'll see it in the negative again either.

Week 5

#109 Ohio U -9.5 -115 96.10% WINNER
#112 C Michigan -18.5 96.43% LOSER SU
#126 Rutgers -17.5 95.70% LOSER SU
#129 Georgia Tech -10 90.86% LOSER
#131 Texas Tech -7 94.08% LOSER SU
#159 NO Illinois -13.5 97.80% WINNER
#161 Utep -15 95.86% WINNER
#166 Toledo -4.5 96.99% LOSER SU
#176 Iowa -7 90.39% WINNER
#183 Nevada -21 91.02% LOSER

10 plays in all the public needs to win 6 of them to make a profit. I just don't see it. A lot of chalk once again. Last Saturday there was bloodshed not only for the public fades but for almost everyone. The newsletters, handicappers and the public got their ass smashed last week. It was a huge winning week for the books last Saturday. There wasn't many cashed tickets out there, so keep that in mind when you look to wager later today.

Week 5 Results

Public 4-6 -2.6 units
Faders 6-4 +1.6 units

Overall

Public 21-26 -7.6 units
Faders 26-21 +2.9 units

4 of the Underdog Fades won SU as the public takes on more losses and the faders pick up a little bit more today.

Week 6

#324 Cincinnati -17 91.70% WINNER
#356 Kent St -18 91.49% LOSER
#383 Oregon -36.5 93.55% LOSER
#387 Auburn -6 92.95% LOSER
#398 Boise St -39 94.72% WINNER

This week the public is only pounding 5 games with one side taking over 90% of the action. No surprise seeing Oregon and Boise St in the list. Interesting choices by the public, there is one game on this list I would take a solid stand against. Keep in mind the public money has a lot to digest with MLB Playoffs, NHL, NBAE and football, so money is going to be spread out over the coming weeks even more than ever.

The public needs to win 3 of 5 to slow down the train wreck in progress. It's possible it can be done with this card. We shall see at the end of the day.

Week 6 Results

Public 2-3 -1.3 units
Faders 3-2 +.8 units

Overall

Public 23-29 -8.9 units
Faders 29-23 +3.7 units

Faders beat the public for the third week in a row and add to their winnings. Not sure if anyone is following or not, there hasn't been a comment outside of my own for quite a while.

Week 7

#123 N Carolina St -7.5 90.48% LOSER
#132 Alabama -20.5 91.46% LOSER
#134 Oklahoma -22.5 93.43% WINNER
#138 Ball St -15 90.80% LOSER SU
#173 Utah -20.5 97.69% WINNER
#181 SO Mississippi -14.5 92.63% WINNER
#191 Boise St -40.5 92.56% WINNER

Week 7 Results

Public 4-3 +.7 units
Faders 3-4 -1.4 units

Overall

Public 27-32 -8.2 units
Faders 32-27 +2.3 units

Week 8

#310 Virginia Tech -27 94.02% WINNER
#319 Temple -8 94.34% WINNER
#337 S Carolina -12.5 97.70% WINNER
#341 Ohio -2.5 97.24% WINNER
#358 NO Illinois -11 92.63% WINNER
#366 California -3.5 93.84% WINNER
#372 Idaho -24 98.03% LOSER
#376 Utah -30.5 95.57% WINNER
#380 Virginia -23.5 94.59% WINNER
#381 Georgia -4 93.58% WINNER
#384 C Florida -22 98.88% WINNER
#389 Fresno St -19 95.86% LOSER
#394 Utep -9.5 97.67% LOSER SU
#395 San Diego St -24.5 95.95% LOSER

An incredible overload of games by the public with 14 games that are absolutely getting pounded. You know what you need to do here. Public needs to win 8 of 14 to win. I can't see it happening. If I had money to wager, I would be all over this today.

Week 8 Results

Public 10-4 +5.6 units
Faders 4-10 -7 units

Overall

Public 37-36 -2.6 units
Faders 36-37 -4.7 units

Public went on a killing spree today and would've been 11-3 if there wasn't a late score in the final 20 seconds of the Idaho game. Note that even though the public picked up 5.6 units overall the faders lost 7 meaning there is still a net to the books of 1.4 units. This is where the vig comes into play.

Now both sides are down a combined 7.3 units for the year. The books love this and are making money. You might be thinking if the bets came in 90%+ and won and the faders were less than 10% how did the book win. Keep in mind the public money is usually a small amount of money but with lots of bets. The smart $ overcomes the volumes of bets with much larger bets. This isn't too say some of the sharp money was on these games and won as well. It's a delicate balance.

This is a very unusual day for the public, out of the 14 games the spread came into play only twice (Idaho & SD ST) all of the other 12 games if you won you covered no matter what the spread was.

Stuff for those that are following along to ponder as we move forward into the season. There's a long way to go.

Week 9

#108 Cincinnati -5.5 95.60% LOSER
#121 Clemson -6.5 91.51% LOSER SU
#130 Arkansas -20 91.57% WINNER
#140 Temple -29.5 93.38% WINNER
#149 SMU -7.5 97.87% WINNER
#153 Stanford -7.5 94.68% WINNER
#166 Oklahoma -23.5 97.26% WINNER
#167 Miami Ohio -2.5 92.86% WINNER
#173 Toledo -10.5 90.67% WINNER
#176 Nevada -26.5 90.58% LOSER
#185 Houston -13.5 98.21% WINNER
#189 Ohio St -25.5 92.91% WINNER
#198 Hawaii -15.5 98.25% WINNER