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139TH KENTUCKY DERBY

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
1 Black Onyx Joe Bravo Kelly Breen 50-1
2 Oxbow Gary Stevens D.na 30-1
3 Revolutionary Calvin Borel Todd Pletcher 10-1
4 Golden Soul Robby Albarado Dallas Stewart 50-1
5 Normandy Invasion Javier Castellano Chad Brown 12-1
6 Mylute Rosie Napravnik Tom Amoss 15-1
7 Giant Finish Jose Espinoza Tony Dutrow 50-1
8 Goldencents Kevin Krigger Doug O'Neill 5-1
9 Overanalyze Rafael Bejarano Todd Pletcher 15-1
10 Palace Malice Mike Smith Todd Pletcher 20-1
11 Lines of Battle Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 30-1
12 Itsmyluckyday Elvis Trujillo Eddie Plesa Jr.na 20-1
18 Frac Daddy Victor Lebron Kenny McPeek 50-1
19 Java's War Julien Leparoux Kenny McPeek 15-1
20 Vyjack Garrett Gomez Rudy Rodriguez 15-1

Courtesy of Brisnet

Orb and the undefeated Verrazano headline a stellar field of 20 sophomores entered Wednesday for Saturday's 139th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.na, who has won the Derby four times, will send out Will Take Charge and Oxbow.

Winner of the Rebel in his most recent start, Will Take Charge will break from post position 17 and be ridden by Jon Court. Three-time Derby winner Gary Stevens has the call on Oxbow, who drew post position 2.


The fifth Grade 1 winner in the field is Java's War, who won the Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 13 and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. Java's War will break from post position 19 for trainer Ken McPeek.

Jay Cronley

1. Normandy Invasion
2. Orb
3. Revolutionary
4. Verrazano

Kentucky Derby DRF Formulator

When using the formulator it will take a few moments to load up. Once it loads it you will have the DRF PP for the KY Derby. Anywhere you see blue in the PP you can click on it and get the full breakdown of the race.

A very nice feature to aid you in handicapping the race.

When I look at this years Derby entrants of 20, there is a lot of horses that just don't belong in the race.na 30-1
4 Golden Soul Robby Albarado Dallas Stewart 50-1
7 Giant Finish Jose Espinoza Tony Dutrow 50-1
9 Overanalyze Rafael Bejarano Todd Pletcher 15-1
10 Palace Malice Mike Smith Todd Pletcher 20-1
11 Lines of Battle Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 30-1
13 Falling Sky Luis Saez John Terranova 50-1
15 Charming Kitten Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher 20-1
17 Will Take Charge Jon Court D.na 20-1
18 Frac Daddy Victor Lebron Kenny McPeek 50-1

In looking at the 11 horse above, one would say, FREAK you just eliminated all the high odd horses.na. I have tons of respect for both trainers but I just can't see it unless there is a mass regression by other runners or someone does something they haven't done before.

That leaves 9 runners and I have a second cut that I think can get there but will need a step up slightly above what they have done to date. I put these a big step ahead of the 11 listed above.


5 Normandy Invasion Javier Castellano Chad Brown 12-1
19 Java's War Julien Leparoux Kenny McPeek 15-1
20 Vyjack Garrett Gomez Rudy Rodriguez 15-1

There's been a lot of talk about Java's War but I just don't like the chances of the runner and believe he will come running into what could be a hot pace but I don't like him for the win spot.

Normandy Invasion has been a trendy pick of the so called "wise guys" but I didn't like the Wood Memorial at all and this horse is going to need to get well positioned early on and then show a late kick that won't be enough or won't be there at all. I also don't like this horse has only won one race way back in November which broke his cherry. It's an inviting price and probably a good play in the exotics only.

Vyjack is almost a carbon copy of Normandy Invasion and finished behind him in the Wood and I don't see enough to warrant a win consideration.

That leaves us 6 horses.

16 Orb Joel Rosario Shug McGaughey 7-2 The morning line favorite is a nice horse but I don't like the bounce in the Florida Derby. If you look at the speed ratings going back 5 races back we see 72-84-86-89-102-97. Perhaps it was to be expected going from 89-102 and perhaps I am reading too much into it. However this is another horse that likes to rate midpack and come on in the end. Sound familiar? Definitely has a hot jockey and a good workout at CD on 4/29 but will it be enough? I'll be betting against the ML favorite.

6 Mylute Rosie Napravnik Tom Amoss 15-1, 12 Itsmyluckyday Elvis Trujillo Eddie Plesa Jr. 15-1, and 14 Verrazano John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 4-1

Remember early on I said don't think too much of the odds, well here are 3 horses, I just can't separate and they range from the second choice on the ML to two 15-1 long shots. We know the ladies will plunk their $2 win wagers on Mylute but that won't affect the odds as people think it will. Remember the guy that won $100,000 and bet it well the odds dropped from 15-1 to 14-1 after that bet, but by race time was right back to 15-1. The casual $2 female bettor won't sway these odds that much.

It's My Lucky day ran 2nd to Orb last out and was the beaten favorite in the Florida Derby. This horse has had major regression as well but has topped a speed figure of 100+ three times. It's last 5 86-91-111-106-94. If this horse can go back to the 100+ it can be dangerous. This horse likes to be out on the lead or near the lead. Question is for how far and what pace will he be facing.

Verrazona the second choice on the ML. What's not to like, never beaten, heavy bet favorite in three of four career starts. As I stated I don't like the Wood Race but again this horse likes the front end and I just see a lot of company there. Will the horse be beaten into submission and passed late? I think so.

That leaves me with just 2 horses and they are:

3 Revolutionary Calvin Borel Todd Pletcher 10-1
8 Goldencents Kevin Krigger Doug O'Neill 5-1

I believe either of these two horses can win the derby and one of the two will.

These two are like splitting hairs. In my ratings Golden Cents edges Revolutionary by just one point. If I had just one horse to choose of the two as my winner, Revolutionary would be the choice and that is based on the fact I think we will see some rain on Saturday. The pedigree of Revolutionary shows that he should be able to handle an off track or a listing of Good without problem. With a current 70% chance of rain, I like Revolutionary at a JUICY price.

Golden Cents the winner of the Santa Anita Derby and unfortunately we get the story of Kevin Krigger. So you know there will be $$$ thrown this way for a little purpose like with Rosie. I've had the pleasure to follow Kevin when he was an apprentice and he is a good jockey and has stayed aboard Goldencents in every lifetime race. This is a nice horse and like so many others will be up front either on the lead or near it. This is another reason why my top pick is Revolutionary. I believe he will have the most kick out of all the closers and with Calvin Borel on top, I'll take that Derby magic along with the handicapping.

Top Selection

3 Revolutionary Calvin Borel Todd Pletcher 10-1

Good luck with your selection and any exotics you play. I may add exacta/trifecta tickets to this later on.

WELL DONE MY FRIEND,GOOD LUCK AND THANKS

Good Read FREAK TY and GL

Black Onyx has been scratched.

James Scully

Utilizing a $100 bankroll, I will recommend the following wagers on the Kentucky Derby:

$20 Win & Place 16
$10 exacta box: 12 & 16
$5 exactas: 16 over 3,9,14,17
$1 trifecta: 16 over 3,9,12,14,17 over 3,9,12,14,17

Andrew Beyer

Golden Cents

Mike Superstein

1-VERRAZANO 2-ORB 3-GOLDENCENTS

After going back and forth several times, we've narrowed a very wide open Kentucky Derby to three horses. Even
then, there's a razor thin margin between the trio. We basically let John Velasquez make the decision for us.

Velasquez was the regular rider of both VERRAZANO and ORB and he went for the former.

VERRAZANO enters the Derby unbeaten in four starts and his up close style should keep him out of trouble. Like most of these,
his ability to handle the 1 1-4 miles is an issue. ORB won the Florida Derby in powerful fashion. His closing style
could be the key to victory if he can avoid traffic or a wide trip. Rosario had ridden the Malibu Moon colt the first
five races in his career.

GOLDENCENTS will try to give Doug O'Neill his second straight win in Louisville after the
trainer took the 2012 Derby with I'll Have Another. The Santa Anita Derby winner, like VERRAZANO, will be
forwardly placed. He improved leaps and bounds in his Arcadia finale and appears to be peaking at the right
time. O'Neill left a relatively unknown Mario Gutierrez on I'll Have Another last year and does the same with
Kevin Krigger in 2013.

LONGSHOT: OXBOW

E-Pony

14 VERRAZANO (VELAZQUEZ) | PLETCHER
16 ORB (ROSARIO) | MCGAUGHEY
8 GOLDENCENTS (KRIGGER) | O'NEILL
3 REVOLUTIONARY (BOREL) | PLETCHER

Mighty Quinn

Verrazano in the Kentucky Derby ($25 win and place).

Thanks Freak! Nice write up

The Wizard from Brisnet

16 Orb
3 Revolutionary
5 Normandy Invasion
14 Verrazano
8 Goldencents

Jill Byrne

Revolutionary (3) was game and determined in his previous two victories. He has looked well training over the Churchill surface and gets three time Kentucky Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel.

Orb (16) was a dominant winner of the Florida Derby (G1) and has overcome various pace scenarios. He has looked sensational since arriving at Churchill.

Normandy Invasion (5) looks to be rounding into top form and has put in two excellent workouts beneath the Twin Spires.

Goldencents (8) is capable of sitting in a perfect stalking spot and has shown the ability to carry his speed a distance of ground.

Palice Malice (10) adds blinkers and picks up Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith. He has the pedigree to excel at Churchill Downs and could be peaking at the right time.

JILL’S SELECTIONS – 3-16-5-8-10

Bob Balfe

My Kentucky Derby Trifecta box 9-8-18 Overanalyze, Goldencents, Frac Daddy

Mike Battaglia

#16 Orb
#5 Normandy Invasion
#14 Verrazano
#19 Javas War
#3 Revolutionary

Exactas
16 with 5,14,3

Pat Day

Orb