Courtesy of DanonymousRacing
GPX
LONG SHOT PLAY OF THE DAY
Race 5: #5 The Blonde Peque
INDIVIDUAL RACE SELECTIONS
Race 1: 7-2-1
For a track that prides itself on betting opportunities, this isn’t one of them. Most of the horses who have run, as Matt Carrother on TVG would put it, are diseased, and it looks like it should be a first time starter to take the lion’s share here. Pletcher has two first timers in here, one on the rail #1 Our Commodore, with Javier in the saddle, and the other #7 Bully Proof with Johnny V. #7 was training decently at Saratoga, but then had a few month break to suggest something went amiss. The next few workouts on the return are encouraging, so that along with JV choosing #7 over the #1 leaves me with this one as the top choice. The trainer of #2, Gustavo Delgado, does some pretty good work, as he is 21% from 205 starters and is off to a fast start at the meet with 8 out of 19 in the money. This Keeneland November sales purchase from 2012 out of Malibu Moon could be a runner, so will make the second choice. Finally, will go with the #1, the other Pletcher as the 3rd choice based purely on connections and the workouts. I will not be playing this race, in all likelihood.
Race 2: 3-8-7
Another maiden race, here a claimer for a 25k. Top choice in here will be #3 Perfect Biscuit for Jason Servis. Servis is 21% MClaimers and 14% debut MC from a decent amount of races. Second choice in here will be #8 Builder Jak for Iadisernia and Panici. Panici won a race at 9-1 or so a few weeks ago for Giuseppe and it always seems like the higher Iadisernia horse runs better if he has two in the same race (he has #6 Adriana’s Dream, a first timer, here also). Finally, its hard to ignore the #7 Fabled Star here for Ralph Nicks. Turf to dirt, showed some serious foot on the grass in the debut, now stretches out an extra furlong. A very logical use. I am completely going against #5 Geisha Pebbles in this one. Ignored in the debut at 21-1, was off slow and closed OK to finish 2nd in the slop. At 8-5, way too many variables here to take that kind of price.
Race 3: 2-6-5
Where are all the juicy mile turf races???? In any event, a 1 3/16 MAIDEN once again here on the turf. Top pick in here will be #2 Lemon Sakhee for Casse and L. Saez. Was off slow in the debut before rushing up and tiring a bit late in the stretch. Second time out and stretching out to a distance that shouldn’t be an issue (Lemon Drop Kid on top) says to me this one might get bet in half, but it certainly looks the part. #6 Place Card for Motion and Prado will be the second choice. I really like that last race, went from 10th to 3rd, while making up 5-6 lengths, and still battled on to finish 3rd. Now gets to stretch out to a marathon distance and has Lemon Drop Kid on top. This 160k purchase might enjoy the stretchout and you can never go against Motion and Prado on the grass. Motion is nearly 25% off 60-180 days, as well. Third choice will be #5 Lonelilly, with Kenneally giving Gaffalione a shot on this one. Ran 1 5/16 at Kentucky Downs a few months back and lost by a length. The fact that this marathon race was here best race to date, in my opinion, should serve her well stretching back out and going dirt to turf. The horse has been bet heavily in the last four, and now you are getting a bit of a price. Worth a shot underneath.
Race 4: 7-1-9
Marty Wolfson has two in here, a 7F event on the dirt, but let’s go with the price on top with #7 Dreamlicious. Toss the last start in the Tiara on the turf, that is not what this one wants to do. However, dig a little deeper and this one has showed good pace going a mile that could have her in a good stalking trip. Wolfson’s numbers are great: turf to dirt 28% and route to sprint is 29%. Doubt we get 8-1, but looks good. The other Wolfson, #1 Centrique will be the second choice, finally getting some class relief coming off 7 straight stakes events. She is the one to beat, and rightfully so. The Blinkers come off this one today, which should help her relax and let her make her run. 2 for 5 at the 7F distance. The #9 Don’tcallmecharley has outrun her odds in last few, and finally finds a softer spot. Could be heard from late if the pace is hot up front. A use underneath for me. The #8 Very Cherry Candy is an obvious use off of her pure form, but the fact shes been off close to five months after being claimed away from Jacobson at Saratoga spells danger here for me.
Race 5: 5-8-4
What is wrong with the #5 The Blonde Peque at 15-1 ML? Delgado is wheeling this one back in a week, a move he is 17% with. Even better? The horse is 5 for 5 ITM at the distance of 1 1/16. Second choice will be the #8 Principessa Ava for Sheppard and the surprising Rafael Hernandez. The last race was a slog in which she lost by a neck, but the cutback to a 1/16 should help this one and the horse has never ran a bad race in the states. #4 Will to Shine is another obvious use, but the fact that this one has gone backwards in the Beyer category since being claimed away from Jorge Navarro has me worried. However, could still be good enough to win this one.
Race 6: 10-6-4
Top pick in this race will be the #10 Awesome Attack for Efren Loza Jr and Luis Contreras. I am not familiar with Loza, but hes 33% fom 124 starters (WHOA!). The fact that he brings this one over from Tampa off a win suggests he believes the horse can handle the step up in competition. 6-1 is a square price on this one and looks to have a big shot. #6 Global Glow is a longshot with a big chance to get into the exotics. Horse hasn’t lost by more than 4 lengths in ANY start this year (7). Was given a freshening by trainer Linder but the race in which outran her odds at Monmouth going a mile and an eighth this summer certainly is good enough to compete here. #4 Pio’s Passion is another longshot with a chance at a big price. Wayar and Gomez won the finale Tuesday (still kicking myself for not betting that one back off the Tiara performance). Toss the last two on the dirt, and that race in July in which she lost by a neck only a few lengths off a legitimate pace on a relatively deep track has me using in exotics.
Race 7: 2-1-3
This is a bad, bad group of horses, but that doesn’t mean you can’t find a price. That is exactly what I am doing with the #2 Jazmines and Roses at 20-1 ML. Horse has always showed speed and has never been worse than 21-1 (her last start). 5.5 is definitely more suitable to this one then the 6F shes been alternating with, and while shes no synch, if she sits close and runs her best race, I feel she has a definite shot to make some noise her at a price. The #1 Cheri’s Win made a big move from far back in her debut, and should be a bit closer today with a start under her belt. A logical use. #3 Scuba Sue has some of the best speed in the race, and drops to lowest level yet, but not willing to take such a short price on a horse which Dimauro, in my estimation, has given up on and who’s form as gone backward since that trip at Delaware in September.
Race 8: 3-16-1
#3 Cuppa Joe has been close quite a few times since that disaster which was her debut, but it seems that race and the layoff did this horse a world of good, as her last four efforts have been very solid, culminating in a near miss last time out at GPW. Horse has tactical speed, shown by her two efforts at Woodbine over the summer, to stay close enough in this 7.5 race to hold off the closers. The pick for me. If the #16 Majestic Breeze gets in, he’ll be my second choice. Horse was off about a year and a half before making the return to the races this July. Ran two bang up races, has now been freshened up another two months and could be ready to fire off the layoff for the Steinbrenner family’s Kinsman Stable. Finally, #1 Melville for Kiaran McLaughlin should be involved from the onset and would be no surprise.
Race 9: 2-5-10
Top pick here will be the #2 for Caraballo and Pecoraro. Horse should show speed from the onset and has plenty of distance foundation to go the 7 panels without much problem. While never trying this distance, I feel it could be the perfect tweener distance for a horse who has had trouble finishing since that career best Beyer at Delaware in July. Second choice will be #5 Purple Egg. I have followed this horse since their early days, and I truly think Cibelli thought she had a star in the making here. Horse ran an incredibly respectable second to star sprinter Bahamian Squall last time in a sterling time for the 7 panels. Castellano takes the call, so they obviously like their chances today. Finally, #10 Narvaez is a live longshot. Ran second in the GP Sprint last January to Falling Sky and could be heard from late if the pace is scorching for Miguel Vasquez, who I might say is quite the rider. I am not familiar with him but hes given me two great rides for big $$ over the last few weeks.
Race 10: 13-14-9-3
End the day with a head scratching 1 1/8 claiming event on the grass. #13 Valid Concept is where I am going up top. Yes, the last three have been putrid, but I am never to shy away from a longshot if they have some good back form. This horse qualifies for that. I love the early races in the early part of June this year which put this one right in the mix for Milt Wolfson. #14 Poco Man is another longshot, in a little bit better form than the #13 but a square price nonetheless. Coming off a race in which ran respectably, beaten roughly 6 lengths by Bad Debt who would crush this field. I will give four picks for this race being that the odds the 13 and 14 both get in are slim, so #9 Dynamic Boy and #3 Sneaky Kitten will round out the afternoon for me.
Good luck to all! And a Happy New Year.
