Home Forums Sports Picks Central Trackside Picks Friday at Aqueduct

Courtesy of ShapperDaCapper

AQU

Best Bets:

R4 #8 SocialSaul
R6 #9 She’s All Even


Longshot plays:

R3 #3 Mewannarose
R5 #4 Maura’s Pass
R9 #11 Will Freud


1st 7-5-1

#7 American Hero has just missed twice at this level in his last 3 starts.na drops to lowest level for her 5th start. Has 3 seconds in her last 4 starts all be it 2 of them have been on the turf. Had a nice 5F work here Dec. 19th and has good speed figures. #1A Ring Knocker returns to the same level where she finished 2nd to a much the best winner last out. She also has 3 seconds in 4 career starts. She has good speed and should be near the front end with the top pick. #4 Been Here Before has run 2 Ok races in her career and now McLaughlin ads lasix for this start. McLaughlin is 28% first time lasix so this one certainly could move forward, maybe.


3rd 3-2-4

#3 Mewannarose ran his career best speed figure in his last race a solid second to the likely favorite Salutos Amigos and is now 2nd off the lay off for Englehart who’s 26% with these types. He’s 3 for 9 at this distance with a win on the inner. #2 Dad’s Cap is certainly the class of this field by finishing 1st or 2nd in some big graded stakes races this year including winning the Carter handicap. Has had a nice freshening for his one and has run well off the bench before. He’s 5 for 5 in the money on the inner but his up and down speed numbers do concern me some. #4 Salutos Amigos will likely be the favorite after winning the fall high weight last time out, and he’s a hard knocking sort as long as it’s not on the West Coast. Speed numbers are solid for sure and he loves a sloppy inner track which he might get. Just to short of a price for me.


4th 8-4-6

#8 SocialSaul drops to the level where he won 2 races back by a solid 8 1/2 lengths. His speed numbers lately have been tops in this field for sure. Jacobson clicking at 34% with these types of drops and this one has won 5 of his last 7 starts at this level or slightly higher, tough to go against. #4 I Want You To Know comes into this race 3rd off the lay off, showed speed last time before tiring late. Speed numbers are competitive here and 2 of his 5 lifetime wins have been at a mile. #6 Lubango finished behind SocialSaul last time out but was really no match. the cut back in distance should help but he’d really have to step up his game to make up the 8 1/2 lengths.


5th 4-5-2

#4 Maura’s Pass broke her maiden last time out by 8 1/4 and was geared down late. The time wasn’t great and neither were the speed numbers but I think this one may have left something in the tank for this race and could go wire to wire again here. #5 Trapsie In Utopia is really the only other speed threat in here and broke her maiden 2 back wire to wire. Ran into a buzzsaw last time in Piccolo Flats and she’s not in this race today, certainly has a chance. #2 Wrath has been at this level since early July and can’t seem to get to the winners circle. Speed numbers are better then top 2 picks but she’s been burning up to much money lately for me to put her on top.


.50 cents pick 4 play 5,9/2,3,4,7,8/1,4,5/1,3,6,9,11=$75


6th 9-5-6

#9 She’s All Even drops to maiden claimers for 2nd career start. Showed speed in debut then stopped badly. She looks to be only true speed in this one and could wire this field. #5 Golden Starlet dropped to state bred maiden 25K last time out, finishing 2nd and seemed to wake up on the inner. Moves up slightly here but if the inner is the key this one has a solid chance. #6 Accelebrate comes into this race 2nd off the lay off and was off slowly in her first start back from the freshening. She has faced better in the past and has every right to improve, maybe.


7th 4-3-8

This seems to be the most competitive race on the card today. #4 Regulus just missed at similar level last time out while 3 wide on the turn. This is his 2nd start for Jacobson who’s 26% second off the claim. Last race speed number is tops in here and there’s plenty of speed for this one to close in to. #3 Abra also comes into this race second off the lay off for Linda Rice and she’s 18% with these types. He’s won at higher levels here on the inner and that last race only helps his chances here. #8 Luckydream just missed in his last 2 starts at higher levels. Past speed numbers are best in here. Has been on the bench since March so he may need a race, maybe.


8th 5-4-1

#5 Make The Moment just missed last time out by a nose at similar level and was 5 wide on the turn. She also ran her best speed number in over a year in that race. 3 wins in 6 starts on the inner is a big plus for me. #4 Irish Whisper went wire to wire last time out at 6 1/2 furlongs, ran a big speed number and now cuts back to 6F. She’s had a nice work since that race which tells me that’s she’s in top form. I’m sure she’ll be forwardly placed and could wire this field. #1 Frivolity finished behind the top choice and was many lengths ahead of the 4th place finisher. She’s now 3rd off the lay off for Jacobson and he’s 21% with these types.Certainly has a chance here.


9th 11-1-9

#11 Will Freud drops to 25k claimers after running an Ok 5th last time out at the 40k level. This is his second start after being claimed by Englehart and he’s 30% with these types. His speed numbers are tops in here and he should be right there at the end. #1 IGotthediscoinme also drops to 25k here after running a solid 2nd last out also at 40k level. Speed figures are right there with the top choice and he has a great chance. #9 Prince Of The Lake one of two Rudy Rod first time starters in this race. He’s a well bred gelding who been working ok for his first start. Dam has 3 winners from 3 starters and Irad Ortiz sticks around to ride this one, watch the board.


Good Luck!!!

Dave Litfin - Aqueduct

BEST BET: Doukas (2nd race)


First Race

1.na 2.na couldn't get to the winner when compromised by slow pace first time on dirt, but finished strongly to be clearly second best, and was flattered when the third finisher returned to win; projects to get first run on RING KNOCKER. The latter is now a three-time silver medalist after saving the place at odds-on; may shake loose stretching out and getting off the rail. BEEN HERE BEFORE passed six horses in turf bow, before a troubled run out of the chute on the main track; improvement expected for dangerous first-time Lasix barn.

Third Race

1. Salutos Amigos 2. Dads Caps 3. Mewannarose



SALUTOS AMIGOS has never been on the inner dirt, but has posted triple-digit Beyers over the three other tracks on this circuit, and drops nine pounds off Fall Highweight win; must run down DADS CAPS. The latter is winless since the Carter, which, coincidentally or not, was also the last time he made the lead; loves the inner, but doesn't always break alertly and has a speedy rival drawn alongside. MEWANNAROSE continues to train smartly after running a lifetime Beyer top behind the choice in the slop; this good now?

Fourth Race

1. Socialsaul 2. Hyman Roth 3. Petrocelli



SOCIALSAUL ran his usual race last out, which wasn't enough to make up the necessary ground vs. $20,000 claimers on a speed-favoring track; demolished some of these racking up five wins in the fall. HYMAN ROTH wasn't much on the inner dirt two winters ago, but the three-time turf winner ran surprisingly well without the lead at Laurel most recently, despite being blocked in the upper stretch; barn excels with this surface switch. PETROCELLI was beaten just a couple lengths by Socialsaul after chasing throughout on Nov. 30 try; may get strung out wide early as I WANT YOU TO KNOW and LUBANGO also go for position into the opening bend.

Fifth Race

1. Wraith 2. Three Way Ticket 3. Maura's Pass



It's been nearly a year since WRAITH posted that maiden victory, and she may appreciate stretching back out to two turns after a frustratingly long series of in-the-money finishes in this starter allowance condition; out of excuses after this. THREE WAY TICKET has bounce-back potential, after sweeping move to beat maidens second time on dirt, followed by a regression in slop when hopelessly far back early; she needs some pace up front, which could be supplied by MAURA'S PASS and/or TRAIPSE IN UTOPIA based on their respective maiden wins in $40,000 statebred off-the-turfers.

Sixth Race

1. She's All Even 2. Golden Starlet 3. Accelebrate


SHE'S ALL EVEN dueled with 3-5 winner Sonora on the main track, and a similar show of early foot likely puts the second-time starter on a clear lead dropping from special-weights; gets off the rail. GOLDEN STARLET has the benefit of a race over the inner dirt, which was an improved effort with blinkers on; raised up a notch. ACCELEBRATE earned the top Beyer three back, and spotted the field a head start in only subsequent outing on dirt; new trainer has won at a 20% clip this year.

Seventh Race

1. Slan Abhaile 2. Luckysdream 3. Don Tito


Potential price play SLAN ABHAILE is down in class and distance after setting the pace to the quarter pole on deep sloppy rail Nov. 27; big effort on the lead to final strides with a lifetime Beyer top two back. LUCKYSDREAM and DON TITO (gelded in October, entered not to be claimed per recently instituted house rule) return from layoffs, and were noses apart on the inner Mar. 9; either or both capable of dispensing 90+ figures if ready. REGULUS was a solid second with blinkers on for new barn Dec. 6 when unable to reel in loose leader Sir Bond; figures close with PIQUANT, who may have enough back class to handle mutli-level boost.

Eighth Race

1. Lost in Success 2. Irish Whisper 3. Make the Moment



Taking a shot LOST IN SUCCESS is ready for first start since failing to handle slop May 8, and it seemingly bodes well that her fastest race was delivered fresh on the inner track last winter; bullet works at Fair Hill and Aqueduct recently. IRISH WHISPER is now 3 for 3 when able to get the early lead, after getting loose early and daylighting a dozen foes second time back from layoff; has a chance to make the top again while advancing to a tougher condition. MAKE THE MOMENT is a deep closer with a 50% win mark on the inner, and coming off a lifetime Beyer top in slop to run down FRIVOLITY and miss in a photo; owner-trainer off to great start this winter.

Ninth Race

1. Worbothor 2. Wild Freud 3. Igotthediscoinme



WORBOTHOR has a very low (271) Tomlinson rating for wet tracks, so he may be a candidate to improve off a third in the slop opening week, which came less than two weeks after debut on yielding turf; has some upside. WILD FREUD improved a few lengths first off the claim, and is back quickly dropping to $25,000; may sit a nice trip stalking IGOTTHEDISCOINME and EL VIEJO VERDE, who have speed and break from the inside.

Courtesy of Rich Halvey

AQU

I hope everyone had a good holiday.na – has the top figure at the distance, but is another that seems to have trouble passing the last horse. Has gotten a couple of works since her last and looks competitive here.
•4 Been Here Before – is first time Lasix for McLaughlin. Had a lot of trouble at the start of her last and a little bit of improvement puts her right in the mix

Race 3 Gravesend Handicap 3-2-4
•1 Green Grotto – two starts already on the inner dirt this winter. His last was a really good effort dueling all the way around the track and only losing by a length and a quarter. He is the best speed in the race but he is only 3 for 28. If the track is speed favoring it ups his chances but otherwise he looks slated for a minor award at best.
•2 Dads Caps – will have to deal with the 1 on the front end but he is not a need to lead type. He’s 5 for 5 first or second on the inner, and has looked good in each of his last three. He’s got good sprint breeding, and a useful series of works since his last.
•3 Mewannarose – best on a fast track and is tough at the sprint distances. Has a win in two tries on the inner. Has shown improvement lately and had a great workout seven days ago.
•4 Salutos Amigos – the star of the field after a decent run in the BC sprint. Came back to win the Fall Highweight convincingly and drops 9 pounds from that effort. However, that was on a sloppy main and he is 4 for 4 on the wet track. Lots of talent and lately at the top of his game, but I’m looking for a higher odds result.
•5 Crafty Dreamer – a solid runner but perhaps a bit up against it in this group. Still, only four horses to beat and he has had some success on the inner.

Race 4
•8 Socialsaul – has the best figures in the race and is a 30% winner lifetime. Since getting claimed by Jacobson on September 1, he’s raced seven times, with good success. In fact, his worst race was his last when he jumped up to $20K and was soundly beaten. He’s back for $10K today and if he holds together he could start a fresh streak.
•1 Felons Only – has been hanging around Finger Lakes and Presque Isle this year with moderately good success. He’ll almost certainly be ignored in the betting, but he’s had a win at this distance and at a higher level and isn’t without chances today.
•4 I Want You to Know – The quality of this field is not high, so you can’t automatically pitch horses with early foot. This pick is listed at 10-1, pretty juicy odds.. This horse has been racing at this level for quite a while now, and although he only has 1 win in 16 races this year, he looks like he is in good condition. He has good figures and a front running style and I’ll give him a shot today.

Race 5
•5 Traipse in Utopia – broke her maiden for $40K and jumped up to a state-bred NW1X. She down to a $50K starter today in search of a win. She looks to have far and away the best speed in the race, and there is every reason to expect she’ll establish a lead on her own pace. Her breeding suggested dirt, and once Hennig switched her she woke up. If she is anything close to her 8-1 ML she could be an excellent bet.
•4 Maura’s Pass – she made a mild improvement when shifted from the turf to a sloppy BEL track, but then took a leap forward when moved to the AQU dirt. None of the races that day were particularly quick and she never had to extend herself, winning easily in hand. Even given the loping way she came home her time is competitive. The fact that Jason Servis moves her up to a $50K starter looks positive.
•2 Wraith – one of those horses that finishes in the money a lot, but has trouble cracking the winner’s circle. She’s certainly good enough to win the race on figures, but I’m going elsewhere for the win today.

Race 6
•9 She’s All Even – Contessa is 13% with 2nd time starters. She broke from the rail and looked good to the stretch, but faded on a rail that wasn’t particularly kind to front speed. She was 31-1 first out and will be substantially less than that today. The rider switch from Serpa to Jose Ortiz is a big plus. She is far and away the best speed and has a figure that puts her on top of this field. Finally, she is dropping to MCL from MSW and that should allow her to carry her speed to the wire.
•5 Golden Starlet – raced well when switched to the inner dirt and a sprint. Her figure is second only to the 9. A little improvement today puts her on the board.
•6 Accelebrate – dropped from MSW to $40K claimers but broke last in the field ran fairly evenly around the track. If she breaks this time she should be more of a factor.

Race 7
• 1 Slan Abhaile – first, kudos to Imbriale for getting a tough pronunciation right (Slawn Awallya). It means “safe home” and I’m looking for this one to make it home first in this race. His maiden start was on a sloppy track that didn’t play well to horses on the inside. He actually broke from the outside post, worked hard to get the lead and faded in the stretch. He has been with better horses recently, dropping from an OC $62 to an open $40K. He looks to be a better fit for the six furlong distance and should be in a good spot turning for home.
•8 Luckysdream – Pletcher snagged this horse from Jacobson in March for $50K and drops him to $40K today, an interesting move. He is another with a preference to run to the front, and has some massive figures from 2013. Pletcher usually has his horses ready to roll of the layoff, and given the steady workout pattern it looks like this one fits.
•4 Regulus – he looks ideally slotted for six furlongs and given the surplus of speed in here he may be the one to benefit.

Race 8
•2 Misszippityslewda – first off the claim for Jacobson. She fits the distance and the price level and has competitive figures. Pretty much gives a good effort every race. . Six furlongs is probably to her advantage.
•5 Make the Moment – just missed on the sloppy AQU main last out and should be one of the horses closing in the stretch. She has the best last race figure as well.
•4 Irish Whisper – dominated a NW1X field last out. Ran well on the inner earlier this year, likes the distance and likes a fast track. should be the front runner today.

Race 9
•3 False Positive – ran into wet tracks his last two but has shown enough front running ability to be a factor here.
•11 Wild Freud – has the best last race figure and a good race over the inner. The outside post could be an issue, but if he gets into the race early he has a good shot.
•5 Masterkey – first timer for Rudy Rodriguez has a regular set of works on the inner and at 15-1 is worth watching.