Home Forums Sports Picks Central Trackside Picks Saturday at Aqueduct

Courtesy of ShapperDaCapper

AQU


Top Plays of the Day:

R1 #2 Oliver Rush (2-1)
R9 #3 Cay to Pomeroy (5-2)



Boxcars of the Day:

R3 #4 On the Curve (6-1)
R4 #7 Son of a General (6-1)
R6 #6 Joe Mooch (10-1)
R 7 #4 Zucca (12-1)



Race 1

2-1-5-7

The opener is a maiden claimer for 12K going 5.na (1) finally got it done after 21 tries and stretches back out today. Maximus Mike (2) will likely force the pace and is possibly the biggest danger to our top pick.Kodiak Kody (10) offers some value dropping to the rock bottom and getting a big jock change going second off the claim. Frogman Mel (9) never runs to his odds and is better on turf.


Race 6

6-3-5-9

Race 6 is a 6F allowance event for N1X type. Waco (3) has big speed but has tailed off a bit since his impressive maiden score at the Spa. There is very little speed in here so he is clearly the horse to beat. We will use him as well as boxcar selection Joe Mooch (6) who turns back in distance for Linda Rice. He has shown decent tactical speed in sprints and can lay right off the early speed of Waco and possibly best that runner. He is obviously sharp right now. Leilani’s Ticket (7) moves from Ness to Contessa, but comes in off a win. Joking (9) was overmatched in his last and has a good shot for a share. John’s Island (5)has kept better company and should be used in exotics.


Race 7

4-2-8-5

The seventh is a NY state bred maiden special at 6F. Bossy Boots (8) is the favorite but has had four shots already and is definitely no single here. The last race for Jilly Mac (10) was his race to win. He blew a nice lead in the stretch over an off track he clearly took hold of and draws outside today. Stonely Heart (2) ran well first out over a fast track and we expect a big effort returning to solid footing again. The boxcar pick is Zucca (4) who has good sprint pedigree out of a nice NY stallion. Gyarmati shows a profitable ROI first out which is astonishing considering many of the mounts go to Taylor Rice. He has a long string of works and should be fit at a good price. Also give a long look to Zippity Zoom (5) who ran well enough for Rice who never tries first out. The move to special weights is significant though and even though a win is probably not in the cards there is good value here in vertical plays.


Race 8

6-3-10-2

Race 8 is an optional claimer at one mile and 70 yards. ML favorite Irsaal (10) has been awful since back to back wins this spring. Granted they were versus much more but the last is particularly discouraging. It is unclear what happened to Spa CityFever’s (7) speed. He wanted no part of a slow pace last time and is offered up for a tag for the first time for DJ. The end is approaching for this hard hitter. The turf fiasco can be forgiven for Charge Now (6) who finds his best spot in eons. He likes two turns and this distance of ground. He is very dangerous here. Power World (8) has made a career out of sprinting and although he appears the lone speed here it is suspect he can stay the distance. Likewise, there are distance questions surrounding seeming contender Dream Saturday (3) despite the pedigree. We have faith in the barn though. We have always been a fan of Bad Hombre (2) but are running out of excuses. We also have backed Mills (9) on many occasions but trying dirt for the first time is huge question.


Race 9

3-6-5-2

The finale is a 10K claimer going 6 panels. Cay to Pomeroy (3) goes first off the claim for Michelle Nevin. She returns him at a competitive level and employs a jock she has won 5/11 with in the last 60 days. He is a top play of the day and wires this field if there is an ounce left in the tank. Tummel (6) is the second most likely to win here going second off the claim for Adsit. We prefer him much more than Island Sunset (5) who has not been seen in nearly a year. That is not good for horses of this class level no matter who their trainer is. Balasmo is good off the claim so Reggie D (2) has a shot to fill out verticals in what appears to be a chalky finale. We do not like the win chances however for this gelding that rarely gets there. Something tells us Upward (4) is not right.

Dave Litfin

BEST BET: Aleander (3rd race)

First Race
1. Oliver Rush 2. Constantine 3. Prince Raja
OLIVER RUSH ships up from Florida and drops 50% in price for new barn, after two comeback starts in the fall; missed third in three-way photo last time. CONSTANTINE has averaged a 49 Beyer in four dirt starts, including two on the inner track, which makes him competitive at this reduced level; stretch threat. PRINCE RAJA (0 for 13), LIGHTNING RON (0 for 15) and YES I'M TRUE (0 for 15) have had plenty of chances, yet none of them are outgunned here on their best efforts.

Second Race
1. Grandpa Len 2. Blue Chips Only 3. Brother Ralphie
GRANDPA LEN is accustomed to longer races, but Oct. 29 race out of the chute suggests he has the wherewithal to be in striking range on the drop to $12,500 sprint; timid vote to be along in time. BLUE CHIPS ONLY found best stride late to overhaul BROTHER RALPHIE in their Dec. 7 meeting; could get a favorable setup if the latter duels early with WICKED IRISH, who bears close scrutiny first out in two years.

Third Race
1. Aleander 2. Marble Falls 3. Onthecurve
Making his first start in New York off a layoff, ALEANDER lagged behind early and rallied along a dead rail to go clear late for third over MARBLE FALLS in the slop; capable of showing better positional speed based on most recent start on fast dirt at Santa Anita, when within 1 1/2 lengths of the early leader. Marble Falls has had only one chance on a fast track, and that was against Liam's Map, who just won the Harlan's Holiday with a 111 Beyer; first try for a tag. ONTHECURVE is improving with each start, and so far has been in the money on fast, good and muddy tracks.

Fourth Race
1. Snake Pit 2. Golden Itiz 3. Nubin Ridge
Since back-to-back wins over the summer, SNAKE PIT has been in tough chasing loose-on-the-lead repeater Warrioroftheroses, and Cerro, who returned to run a close third in the $200K Claiming Crown Jewel; entrymate TREASURY DEVIL would benefit from any moisture in the surface. GOLDEN ITIZ takes $15K purse drop after getting caught up in a pace duel with Moneyinyour Pocket (see 8th) first time on the inner track; posted two big wins in off-the-turfers prior to that soon after being reclaimed. NUBIN RIDGE is questionable at the distance, but rates a look at a price after two dead-rail trips at the fall meet.

Fifth Race
1. Face the Race 2. Rocket Hero 3. Maximus Mike
FACE THE RACE ran on fast dirt in the first two starts of his career, and didn't get back on that type of footing until about five weeks ago, when up close at every call second time off a claim; rates another try dropping to $12,500. ROCKET HERO also plunges in price, after a useful sprint tuneup first out since May; he has recorded 60+ Beyers in five of six starts on the inner track. MAXIMUS MIKE has faced repeaters in three of four losses on dirt; probably found the distance a bit too short in last.

Sixth Race
1. Waco 2. John's Island 3. Leilani's Ticket
WACO was involved in a duel with odds-on Pulling G's on rail-biased track Cigar Mile Day, and was floated wide by that rival into the lane while making first start since early fall; main speed of this matchup. JOHN'S ISLAND got back to his best figs chasing Readthebyline in N.Y. Stallion event most recently; late runner needs hot pace up front, which he got winning at this distance on July 2. LEILANI'S TICKET is another New York-bred in good form, with Beyers of 88-85-88 in last three starts on fast tracks; 60% exacta finishes overall when he gets that kind of footing.

Seventh Race
1. Shotgun Love 2. Bossy Boots 3. Stonely Heart
SHOTGUN LOVE is a half-sister to Lovely Syn, the brilliant filly who won all four of her starts for these connections by better than 29 lengths, beginning with debut on the inner dirt; doesn't face much early speed against rivals who haven't run to the Beyer par. BOSSY BOOTS was favored for first start since meeting allowance repeater Elmra eight months earlier, and had a good tightener finishing a clear second over STONELY HEART. The latter subsequently worked a bullet half-mile ranked 1/60 on Dec. 15, presumably in the new blinkers she wears Saturday; may simply want a fast track.

Eighth Race
1. Charge Now 2. Erik the Red 3. Moneyinyour Pocket
CHARGE NOW has only raced twice on dirt in non-stakes company, beating maidens and preliminary allowance opponents earlier this year; half-brother to 2010 Ky. Derby winner Super Saver has run well fresh. ERIK THE RED is a steady-going sort who has only been out of the money once - against Salutos Amigos, who has developed into a stakes winner; bred to handle initial two-turn assignment after good conditioning race first out since May. MONEYINYOUR POCKET outdueled 8-5 favorite Golden Itiz (see 4th) and held stubbornly to save the place in last; cuts back from longer routes.

Ninth Race
1. Tummel 2. Cay to Pomeroy 3. Island Sunset
TUMMEL earned best Beyer in months when claimed from win at this level Nov. 15; logical choice after finishing clear second to Italian Rules, who came back to win again for $25,000. CAY TO POMEROY has been idle nearly three months since coughing up a clear lead late at 3-2 and losing second as well to REGGIE D when claimed Oct. 2; evaluate the speedball's chances according to how the track is playing. ISLAND SUNSET made 16 starts in 2013, but has been on the shelf almost a year now; requires long look after series of slow and hard-to-gauge works that are quite typical for this outfit.