Home Forums Sports Picks Central Trackside Picks Saturday at Gulfstream Park

Courtesy of ShapperDaCapper

GPX


TOP PLAYS OF DAY

R3- #1 Rocket Man Richie
R4- #5 Overcontrol
R10- #2 Unitarian



BOXCARS OF DAY

R1- #2 Ratso Rizzo
R6- #7 Midas Terms
R7- #1 This Ain’t No Bull
R9- #3 Calamondin

RACE 1- 2-9-7-10

Saturday’s card commences with a subpar conditional claimer. (10) Define and (9) On Appeal make sense as the favorites, but do not have to win so we will also use (2) Ratso Rizzo as our top choice and boxcar selection for trainer Tino Attard. This four-year old is dropping quite a bit and going turf to dirt in search of his first victory of 2014. We will also include (7) Grand Bambu for trainer Dubis Chaparro.


RACE 2- 6-8-12-11

The second is a $20k conditional claimer going seven and a half panels over the Gulfstream Park lawn. (6) Sunbio is the one to beat over a firm turf course. This four-year old gelding has been horrid in his last two over an off track, but his best NY bred maiden races probably beat this field. We will also use (8) Glenstal Abbey for trainer Stuart Simon on top and include (11) Kilowatt and (12) Caminito on our pick four ticket as well.


RACE 3- 1-8-2-3

The third is a $12,500 maiden claimer for two-year olds run at five and a half furlongs over the main track. We really like the chances of Larry Rivelli’s (1) Rocket Man Richie. Granted, Rivell’s runners usually fire better first and second out, but this is a huge drop in class and the cut back from seven and a half furlongs should help him run down the two Eddie Plesa, Jr. runners. (3) Off Duty draws Paco Lopez and is the logical favorite, but (2) Jimminy has done less wrong. (8) Phelgon should be rolling late on the drop in class for Edward Coletti, Jr.


RACE 4- 5-1-7-6

The fourth is a nice looking two-year old maiden race for two-year olds run at the tricky six and a half furlong distance on the main track. (5) Overcontrol has the look of a Todd Pletcher horse that rarely loses at Gulfstream Park first in this type of spot. This Repole Stable colt was a $725k OBS April purchase and draws Johnny V for his debut. We will make this one a top play of the day and hope to get 2-1. If this one does not fore (1) Centauro Star is very interesting for Gustavo Delgado, but the rail is far from ideal. We also expect a big effort from (7) Yowl. This son of Tale of the Cat makes his debut for Michael Matz, a great conditioner that is usually patient with his young racehorses. (6) Materiality, the other Todd Pletcher firster cannot be ignored either.


RACE 5- 7-4-10-2

The fifth is an allowance event run at one mile over the Gulfstream turf. (2) Powerful Instinct is the 3-1 ML favorite for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano and is hard to dismiss, but his lack of success at this track and distance are certainly disconcerting. We have always liked the upside of Bill Mott trained (4) Mobridge and the presence of Joel Rosario is a good sign despite a rather poor start to the meet for the veteran jockey. (6) Neoclassic is an interesting long shot for Marcus Vitali and Irad Ortiz, Jr, at 15-1 is always appealing and probably worth using as a bomb on your Rainbow Six ticket. (7) Shatak ran well here last year and should do so again on Saturday for George Weaver. (9) Taghleeb, (10) Town Extension, (11) Sound of Freedom and (12) Awesome Sky are all potential underlays that could run huge if they can avoid a wide trip. As you can probably tell we will be spreading in pick three’s and the pick six.


RACE 6- 7-9-4-8

The sixth is a non-winners of three $6250 claimer at a mile and a sixteenth. (9) Tony Tile and (4) Bear Fabulous Son are the likely favorites and are both in with a chance, but we will take a shot at some value here. (7) Midas Terms comes off a brief freshening for Charles Simon and goes turf to dirt. The presence of strong riding Rafael Hernandez is a huge upgrade and the field is far from a stellar group. (8) Kerf has won two in a row and Paco Lopez returns in search of number three for David Fawkes.


RACE 7-1-3-5-7

The seventh starts the late pick four and is a five-furlong sprint over the grass. As you know we certainly believe this is a specialist distance so those who have run well at five panels on the lawn in the past get a huge “bump up.” (2) Jo Jo’s Comet is a rare example of a speed horse in these races that rarely wins. This four-year old son of Peace Rules has blown monster leads in the stretch regularly and should be ignored on top, but used underneath in exotics. (1) This Ain’t No Bull draws to his inside and is 5 for 10 at this distance in his 29-race career. This son of Holy Bull should is a must use and our top choice/boxcar selection. (3) Didn’t Take It is also a must use for Jorge Navarro, but just seems to enjoy running second and third as much as win. (5) Cielo Classic and Navarro’s other runner (7) Fast Time are both logical price horses worth using with our top choices in exotics.


RACE 8- 11-7-12-8

The eighth is the Grade III La Prevoyante Handicap run at a mile and a half over the Gulfstream grass. (11) Cay Dancer makes her first start in the States and has the look of a runner with a future for Chad Brown and Highclere America. This daughter of Danehill Dancer is bred to run all day and gets Lasix for her debut. The outside post and the less than stellar recent riding of Joel Rosario make this one risky at a low price, but throwout at your own risk. (12) Irish Mission is the 5-2 ML favorite and is the class of the field, but the outside draw is concerning. Graham Motion’s runners both have better posts and talent, but lack of experience is a bit of a concern for Photo Call. This three-year old filly has only three starts and only has one race since July. (7) Julie’s Love looks inviting at 12-1, but an underneath finish is probably more likely. (8) Bohemian Dance could get brave at a big price for Michael Dilger and Luis Saez. (9) Premium could be sitting on a career best. (6) Honey Lake at 30-1 is worth using in the back part of vertical wagers.


RACE 9- 3-6-2-7

The ninth is the Grade III Mr. Prospector Stakes run at six furlongs over the main track. (6) Speechify is the 2-1 ML favorite in here for Team Valor trainer Ralph Nicks. This four-year old son of Harlan’s Holiday comes off a sharp victory against a number of today’s runners and is clearly the one to beat. (2) Little Daddy was a top selection for us yesterday when scratched and we love the confidence of trainer Carlo Vaccarezza, but this might be a bit too ambitious. He did get more dirt than usual kicked in his face, but still his best races are probably not fast enough. We think the best chance of beating the favorite is (3) Calamondin. This four-year old son of Curlin is trained by the ever-dangerous Cathal Lynch and comes into the race off an express score at Parx. This is certainly a step up in class for the gelding, but the price makes it worth a shot. He is our boxcar selection in a nice version of the Mr. Prospector.


RACE 10- 2-14-6-7

The finale is the Grade III W.L. McKnight Handicap run at a mile and a half over a probable good turf course. We have always been a huge fan of Darley Stable’s (3) North Slope, bit we have to take a shot against this gelding on Saturday. He has won two in a row, but this is a stronger group and he is quite vulnerable as is 3-1 ML favorite (6) Slumber. He is the deserving favorite, but his lack of success at Gulfstream Park and the distance make us think an underneath finish is far more likely. (7) Manchurian High is worth using at a price, but back-to-back victories are not likely for this six-year old gelding. Our top choice and last play of the day for us will be (2) Unitarian. This son of Pulpit has had success over this track and distance and could be sitting on a career best for a barn that is dominating this meet as usual. Anything near 6-1 would be worth a win wager. (14) Margano could be rolling late if Julien Leparoux can avoid a poor trip from the 14-post.

Spot Plays


(3rd) Pure of Spirit, 4-1
(9th) Purple Egg, 5-1

Ron Nicoletti

RACE 1 10-9-7
RACE 2: 12-10-1
RACE 3: 3-5-1
RACE 4: 6-1-5
RACE 5: 2-1-8
RACE 6: 9-8-10
RACE 7: 6-3-8
RACE 8: 12-3-4
RACE 9: 6-5-2
RACE 10: 2-3-13

Courtesy of DanonymousRacing

BEST BET OF THE DAY: RACE 9 – SIMMSTOWN (9/2)

LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY: RACE 10 – ST. ALBANS BOY (20-1)

CRAZY-A$$ PLAY OF THE DAY: RACE 6 – AJ RULER (20-1)

1st Race: 2-7-10-3

We’ll see what shape the track is in after taking the rain yesterday. Would imagine it’s pretty wet, but doesn’t look like there’s been much rain since. Unfortunately, we have to start with a $6,250 CLM race with a pretty weak field.

(2) Ratso Rizzo - taking a stand against the likely Jacobson favorite on the outside. Woodbine shippers have been running fairly well at this Gulfstream meet. Takes a drop in class, as do a couple of other contenders, but should show some speed from the inside draw. Just seems like the value of the race.
(7) Grand Bambu – another one that’s in for a class drop in here. Pretty good record over a wet track and has some experience over the course. Will be competitive at decent odds.
(10) Define – would love to leave this one out of the money all together, but there’s not much else for him to beat in here. His morning works are nothing to take note of, but those are pretty typical of Jacobson workers.

2nd Race: 8-6-10-11

Very surprised they kept this one on the turf today, actually handicapped this for main track. We’ll keep the analysis brief in here.

(8) Glenstal Abbey - the former Clement trainee, comes in from Canada where he’ll likely be one of the pace setters in here. Has a win at this distance over the course to break his maiden last winter. Lezcano is riding really well on the turf this meet.
(6) Sunbio - finally gets the turf in here after two consecutive off-the-turfers. This is the first time we’ll see this one on a less than firm turf course. Would think it suits his running style a bit better, will be coming late.
(10) High Gauge - another closer in a race that could have lots of speed up front. This is the other Rios horse that has a win over a wet track already. Coming off a June layoff, so will likely not be geared up for this one, but should be coming late for Jerkens.

3rd Race: 1-3-10-5

(1) Rocket Man Richie – had a decent debut race at Hawthorne over the main track. Was a bit odd to see him dropped into MCL ranks last time on the turf. Takes an even bigger drop here, which could be a warning sign, but Rivelli’s numbers going turf to dirt, in MCL ranks are too good to pass up. Rafael Hernandez is a jock to watch, and will hopefully rate a bit better than he did from the rail on the turf last time.
(3) Off Duty – Paco/Plesa, that’s all I should really need to say, but this one also had his best effort on a sloppy track two back. Should be forwardly placed once again with another one taking a MCL drop in class.
(10) Karfagen - BIG drop from MSW ranks. Should appreciate a wet track and should present a bit of value with Valdivia aboard.

4th Race: 5-1-6-2

Finally, we get to some nice racing. A nice MSW with a few high-priced debuts.

(5) Overcontrol – would love to get creative to try to beat this one, but just can’t. Repole/Pletcher have had him down in FL for quite a while now. Have to imagine this one is ready, and will be the likely representative for the Repole Derby run in the winter. Has a steady work tab with some solid 5F works in there. Will be short, but could be a single in the P4.
(1) Centauro Star – moving this one up based on recent trainer results. Delgado has been going very well lately. Gets Javier aboard this one after winning with a sharp Delgado maiden horse yesterday. Solid work tab and looks to be one that can benefit from that extra half furlong in his debut. Interesting that JJ didn’t go to Pletcher’s other starter.
(6) Materiality – and speaking of his other starter. This one looks to have some sharp morning works. Should also appreciate a wet going. Expect to see him outbreak Overcontrol and be the target for him to run at in the stretch. Could get brave if not pressured early.

5th Race: 9-6-7-2

I think they’ll keep this one on the turf. It’s a very competitive field with some nice turfers.

(9) Taghleeb – been high on this one since his debut race. Finally got a good trip under, dare I say, the Strangler last time out. All of his races on the turf have been solid ones, so it’s clear he’s talented. Will be a nice price because of the jump into winners, and it should be fairly easy to get this one in a nice stalking spot on the outside.
(6) Neoclassic – he wants to be forwardly placed, and last time Bocahica did everything he could to not let that happen. Fought him for the better part of the race, but still stayed on pretty well until very late in the race. Expect Irad to get him out of the gate and put him up on or near the pace. Another nice price in here.
(7) Shatak - has a win over the turf course last winter. Has put in a couple of good efforts in NY most recently, but take note of the results the last time he moved from Aqueduct to Gulfstream.

6th Race: 2-4-9-10

I can’t help myself but try to swing for big longshots in these cheap $6,250 CLM races at Gulfstream. This one is no different.

(2) AJ Ruler - I know this one is going to be a crazy price, likely 40-1 or so. BUT, if you look at his “better” races, they’re all at 1M+. Even his last one, although 18 lengths out, was still an improvement. Some cheap speed signed on in here, so why can’t this one take a big run at ‘em with Olivero aboard.
(4) Bear Fabulous Son – another one of those Woodbine shippers coming in at a lower level. The random jock/trainer combo have won together already. Figures to stick around based on class alone.
(9) Tony Tile – should be right up on the pace, and will be the last of the speedsters hanging around in the stretch. Trainer Levy pretty good first time off the claim, so could be tough in here, just not any sort of lock.

7th Race: 3-1-8-11

(3) Didn’t Take It – Navarro/Gonzales combo are 2 for 4 at the meet already. Seems like he’s going to benefit from the pace up front, so would imagine a nice stalking trip inside. Hopefully he finds some room in the stretch to run them all down.
(1) This Ain’t No Bull - breaking from the inside post in these short sprints is not easy. His last race was actually better than it looked on paper. Lezcano is riding well on the turf this meet, so thinking he might be able to work out a trip with this one. Will be a very good price, so use in exotics.
(8) Mish Mosh – this one may not win very often these days but is always competitive. Big jock change to pick up JJ. He’ll be outside speed which will be an advantage for him.

8th Race: LA PREVOYANTE STAKES – 4-3-11-10

What a nice race this is – you have all of the best turf trainers on the east coast represented in here – Clement, Motion, Brown, Mott, McLaughlin. Awesome stuff.

(4) Maximova – early in her career I would have thought there’s no way she could get this distance, but she actually seems to be running better at these longer distances. Love that Irad is up on her in here, as the Clement/Irad combo has been a pretty good one all year long. In fact, the last time she won, Irad was aboard. Should get first run on the leaders in the stretch.
(3) Photo Call - first race in the US was an impressive won, hopped at the start and still won easy. Picks up Rafael Hernandez in here and a nice 7-lb break from her last race. She’s facing some veteran turfers in here, but have faith that Hernandez can work a nice stalking trip on the rail to save some ground.
(11) Cay Dancer – watch the tote board here. You never know what you’re gonna get from these Euro shippers first time in the US, but it’s clear she has talent and is in good form. She could very well be the class of the race, but we’re taking a shot against her today. If you’re playing the horizontals (P4/P5/P6), put her on your ticket for sure.
(10) Angegreen - doesn’t look like much, but just feel like she could be coming late to get into exotics at a big price. Her best race came on a good turf course, which she’ll get here.

9th Race: THE MR. PROSPECTOR – 8-2-1-3 BEST BET OF THE DAY

Really nice field put together for the Mr. Prospector, and one that I think has a big year lined up.

(8) Simmstown – always been a fan of this one, and thought he could compete in the big Mile races this year. Not entirely sure what happened to him last January, but he’s finally coming back from an almost yearlong break. Plesa has him ready, and think this one is going to win impressively today and setup what will be a big 2015 for him. You heard it here first – 2015 Met Mile Winner.
(2) Little Daddy – his best distance is probably 7F, but think Johnny V. will have this one timed well and coming late. Likes the GP surface and will be a decent price.
(1) Risk Factor - think this one is the classiest of the speedsters. Lezcano will send him and ride aggressively. He’ll turn the tables on Speechify and be the one hanging around in the end. Could be really tough in here.

10th Race: THE W.L. MCKNIGHT HANDICAP 1-4-3-6 LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY

The mile and a half distance is a big question mark for most of this field, which is leading me to take a shot with a couple of price horses.

(1) St. Albans Boy – a model of consistency these days. Puts up BSF’s in the low 90’s just about every race, and can get this distance. Lanerie should get a nice ground saving trip. Not sure there are that many legitimate pace setters in here, so don’t think anyone can take this field the distance. Stalks, fires up the rail to win at a big price.
(4) Calvados – this may be an example of sticking with a horse for too long, but he had a really wide trip in the Red Smith at Aqueduct last time out. Just missed at this distance two back. Gets a better post and a better jock. Very live in here.
(3) North Slope – just don’t think there’s much pace in here. Rapscallion is probably the most legitimate pace in here, but don’t think he can get the distance. This one is also a big question mark at 1.5 miles, but seems to be the classier of the bunch. Think this one sticks around for a while in the stretch.