Courtesy of ShapperDaCapper
Top Plays of the Day:
R4 #4 Talbot County (7-2)
Boxcars of the Day:
R3 #7 Sweet Success (8-1)
R7 #11 My Four Reward (15-1)
R8 #4 Theros (15-1)
R9 #11 Charlie A (15-1)
Race 1
3-2-11-12
The opener is a 12.5 claimer going 5.5F. There appears to be quite a deal of cheap speed which should bode well forSummlikealady (3) who takes a big drop for a barn that is sizzling with all relevant stats. The biggest knock is 1-46 Jesus Rios. Goodbye Sorrow (4) is in a disappointing spot today after breaking her maiden versus special weight foes way back in April first out of the box. Clearly something went awry. Millitsa (2) goes first off the claim to Navarro who is fantastic with that type. Bonne Nuit (9) has faced much better but the jock and barn change are a concern. I Beat You (12) offers good value considering the barn but the post, time away, and ability to rate are all questions that will need to be answered. Slynninberg (11) might appreciate the early pace signed on and can run well at a nice price here.
Race 2
5-13-11-6
Race 2 is a 6250 claimer at 1 1/16th. Contrary to race one there are a number of deep closers in here and little speed on paper. The race sets up well for All Keyed Up (5) who draws well for a solid trainer. Serious Indeed (11) will also appreciate the pace scenario. He had trouble and closed belatedly in his last. Tiz Bobby (13) would have been our top pick if not for a dreadful post. Becky’s Kitten (6) is the logical speed to hang around.
Race 3
7-3-2-5
The third is a maiden special going the one turn mile for baby fillies. Lassofthemohicans (3) is the prohibitive ML favorite for Brendan Walsh after 3 seconds from 3 tries. She made a big move in her last behind fast fractions but was turned back. Amy’s Image (8) is a play against. She never impressed in the morning for TAP according to work reports and has already had 3 chances for a barn that excels winning early. Daring Duchess (2) turned in a big late run at GPW a month ago and moves to the Mott Stables today. She should be used but, we have opted for boxcar runner Sweet Success (7) for George Arnold. This filly ran evenly in her debut sprinting for a barn that does not try first out. She has a ton of distance pedigree and should be forwardly placed today. Puffle Feathers (5) is eligible to improve as well for a barn that is good with second out runners.
Race 4
6-5-1-3
Race 4 is also a maiden special for baby fillies but this time at 6.5F. ML favorite Lots of Chocolate (3) just missed in her last but there are concerns. She ran once for TAP at Monmouth in August and was a no threat 5th at 7-1. In her last for new trainer Nicks she blew a three length lead in the stretch running third beaten less than a length. Something stinks here. My Sweet Girl (4) has speed and is well bred but she should prefer a route of ground and the return to a sprint might not be the answer. Conquest Archangel (5) has had 3 shots already for Casse but is certainly a good use in exotics since we are against the chalk. Expect big improvement out of Little Jennie (1) a daughter of Curlin. Our top choice however is The Road Not Taken (6). We generally prefer Brown debut runners routing on the grass, but this is his best owners and he is bred for the dirt. If he doesn’t win today he might be a horse to tab for later and longer.
Race 5
4-7-6-8
Race 5 is a maiden claimer at 1 1/16th on the turf. Chris Clement does well with debut runners and tends to spot them well. He can pop with claiming type so Talbot County (4) should be used. There is nothing in here that impresses. Flight to Quality (8) was buried at long odds for TAP and drops in for the tag. He will probably be in the picture even on three legs. Mott does well with first time maidens for a tag, but Tariff (7) has already had two shots at the level. It is discouraging Marvelous Sky (3) debuted for a tag for this barn, but at least the price is right. Up and Left (6) might be the best speed in here and could wire this group.
Race 6
2-6-11-1
Race 6 is an allowance event going 7F for N1X. Indian Brut (2) was extremely visually impressive in his return after the year away. He should be forwardly placed and can repeat in this spot. There is probably better speed to his outside in the form ofMontana Cowboy (6) who also broke his maiden in the slop. Stamina is the question with this guy. Rich ‘n’ Tuck (3) has the look of a hanger. The wheels really came off on Surfing USA (1) and any former Pletch runner is hard to endorse. The odds are right though and he is in good hands with Lynch. Dangerous Brew (11) offers good value in exotics going route to sprint.
Race 7
11-1-9-7
The seventh is a claimer for 20K at 7.5F on the lawn. There is a lot of speed here so our boxcar pick is My Four Rewards (11). She has shown she can close and horses that get vanned off in their last race generally offer good value in their next. We also like Approval (9) who moves to the Jorge Navarro barn from a much lesser one. She will need to prove she can rate though. If Simple Touch (1) has anything left then she is dangerous for these connections who straight up click together. Stately Defence (2) was our boxcar pick last out but had no excuses when bet off the board and has not shown she can close. Crown Ready (7) fits in exotic plays underneath.
Race 8
4-11-5-2
Race 8 is an optional claimer on the grass going 1 1/16th. Dark Cove (2) is the program pick but has not been seen in a year and a half for Maker and the Ramseys. Amen Kitten (11) makes a lot more sense getting serious class relief today for super connections. His deep closing running style is the only concern. Theros (4) is the lone speed on paper and has no business being 15-1 ML for this barn. He is a must use at this price. Shock Leader (5) tries hard and is always in the picture.
Race 9
11-3-7-5
Race 9 is an allowance event going one mile on the grass. Our boxcar pick is Charlie A (11) who stunned a field over this strip about a year ago. We are big fans of Michelle Nihei and have a feeling she will definitely be fit and ready. Ballylee (3) finds her softest spot in some time. She has the talent to beat this group on her best day. Irish Score (7) is logical underneath but has had trouble winning races for Motion. Night Song (5) will be forwardly placed but likely won’t have the necessary late punch to hold on.
Race 10
6-8-11-4
The finale is a 1 1/16th turf race for 20K claimers. We will use the following four horses in our late pick 4. Kitten in May (6)ran well enough for the new barn at this level off the long layoff. Similar can be expected today. Exporter (8) is definitely playable with good tactical speed and strong connections. She might be a bit slow but has good speed and could wire these.Purely Boy (11) is the program selection coming off four straight but draws tough from the outside. Whisper On the Wind (4) ran very well at huge odds at this level last out. 10-1 is good value here at the same 20K level.
