Home Forums Sports Picks Central Trackside Picks New Years Day at Aqueduct

Courtesy of ShapperDaCapper

Best Bet:
STOLEN VICTORY (Race 9)


Best Value Bet:
SHEA DARBY (Race 8)


Race 1

I’ll have to start the year with the chalk, #5 GABBY’S BROWN, who has already finished ahead of the three main contenders (#1 YOUR TURN, #2 CORAL BEACH and #4 FERZETTI). I’ll go with CORAL BEACH to get second since she’ll probably work out a better trip than last time, then YOUR TURN, who finished three lengths behind CORAL BEACH despite riding the rail the whole way last time, and then FERZETTI, whose last can be forgiven because she was taken too far back.


Race 2

#7 BREACH OF DUTY beat a couple of those in Race 1 when she broke her maiden in October impressively. Since then she tried an allowance at Parx but found the mile too far for her liking. Today she cuts back and should sit the trip. #6 SHE’S MARVY was a game second at a similar level last time, should be involved late. #5 NOON SERMON won for fun at Belmont last time and earned a decent figure, eligible to improve and has a shot to win this one too. #3 SLAM CHOWDER may have just freaked in the mud in her debut but I wouldn’t leave her out of the discussion either.


Race 3

The Affectionately Stakes

The big question in here is whether or not #2 PENWITH will go to the lead. We know last time she was taken back to let her entrymate Snowbell lull them to sleep in the Comley, but she has been off the lead other times too and it has not worked out well. I’ll put a little faith in Fernando Jara and say that he’ll be smart enough to not let #7 BELLE GALLANTEY get an easy lead. BELLE GALLENTEY is the class of the field but she is vulnerable. After these two it’s a gap back to #6 MOMENT IN DIXIE, who has been chasing slightly better in her last two starts. She does not have any early speed and I do not anticipate a pace meltdown, so a minor award is her ceiling. After that I’d rather roll the dice with #3 SHAYJOLIE than #4 AMERICA. SHAYJOLIE may not be a two-turn horse (she rode the gold rail all the way around in the Comely, it doesn’t seal the deal for me) but she has some other races to point to that make her competitive. AMERICA has been beating up on much lesser (and few) foes in her last two starts.

Picks are: 2-7-6-3


Race 4

It’s hard to pick against #3 AWESOME LUTE, who buried #9 BAD TO THE ROAN when they met last time. His last speed figure towers over these. #1 LEATHERHEAD LURIE could sneak into the exacta; she put in a decent rally while racing wide last time, even finishing ahead of #9 BAD TO THE ROAN last time. After BAD TO THE ROAN its wide open, I’ll go with #2 SOUNDS OF SARATOGA cutting back to a sprint to complete the super.


Race 5

#7 WAVELL AVENUE looms a short price but is tough to pick against based on her last two effortless wins. #5 BOUNTY PINK has won four straight and continues to climb up steadily in class, very sharp right now. #8 MEDAGLIA D’ARGENTO has taken a tour of the entire course her last two starts, being pulled 5 and 8-wide! If she saves any sort of ground she’ll be right there at the end. #3 GINNY’S GREY was 3-wide on both turns last time chasing a slow pace, best of the rest.


Race 6

#6 BRIDGET MOLONEY tries slightly lesser rivals today, gets a tepid nod. #7 FIRST SENSATION returns to the claiming ranks after flopping at Parx; live at 8-1. #1 CONCEALED has back class that makes her live in here but the layoff is concerning. #9 MAMA ZEE will beat me if she wins, I don’t understand why she’s the favorite based off her last race.


Race 7

#2 THE SPOTTED WONDER took part in a strong pace duel last time but was only narrowly beaten, I think he’ll hold on this time. #3 VAN FRAASSEN chased much classier foes 5-wide last time, a win threat for sure at this level. #5 MAMBO AT THE GYM won easily in his inner track debut last time, class hike is not insignificant though. #8 LYRICAL MIRACLE moves up in class but has competitive speed figures.


Race 8

#7 SHEA DARBY is my upset pick in this highly contentious race. She pressed the pace while racing wide then tired late in her first start in about 9 months. With the rust shaken off she could be a great value play at 12-1. #4 LA BELLA VALERIA has won two of her last three, with her only defeat coming to Blithely. This is a slightly higher class than she’s used to though, tread with caution at a short price. #10 MS. SYLVIA T was a visually impressive winner last time and gets a positive rider switch to Fernando Jara; serious contender. #2 BILEAPS AND BOUNDS has some competitive races but hasn’t been out since May, underneath only.


Race 9

#2 STOLEN VICTORY is a proven commodity on dirt and has speed figures that are significantly faster than most of these, gets the call. #5 BROKEN BORDER has never raced on dirt and hasn’t worked that well over it but has top connections in his corner, can’t ignore. #1 MRS. SUNDAY chased a runaway winner home last time, might appreciate the added ground. #7 JULES N ROME has burned a lot of money in her young career but should be a factor here.

Dave Litfin

BEST BET: Awesome Lute (4th race)

First Race
1. Gabby's Brown 2. Coral Beach 3. Nejma
After losing her footing at the start and setting the early pace, GABBY'S BROWN cuts back to six furlongs, where she was in the money twice during the fall; drops to new low with blinkers on. CORAL BEACH went well in the mud first time over the inner track, finishing a clear second over YOUR TURN; showed better early speed that day. NEJMA has either been on turf or wet dirt in six starts since chasing dual graded stakes winner Condo Commando in debut.

Second Race
1. Breach of Duty 2. Slam Chowder 3. She's Marvy
BREACH OF DUTY won big off a class drop as a second-time starter, which bodes well as she attempts to reprise that pattern after a fruitless Parx excursion at odds-on; reunited with Irad Ortiz. SLAM CHOWDER tries open company after widening steadily through the lane to win sloppy top-figure debut over statebred maiden claimers; barn off to good start this winter. SHE'S MARVY is the lone entrant boasting two 60+ Beyers, which were her two most recent starts on fast tracks.

Third Race
1. Belle Gallantey 2. Moment in Dixie 3. Shayjolie
BELLE GALLANTEY has to give weight from the far outside post, but it may not matter as the dual Grade 1 winner takes a big drop in class from the BC Distaff; won twice on the inner without the lead last winter. MOMENT IN DIXIE spent much of 2014 in graded stakes, and to her credit, posted a new top Beyer (92) in the Go For Wand; hasn't run on the same surface twice since Saratoga 2013. SHAYJOLIE has another inside draw, after chasing Snowbell's slow pace in the Comely and beating the winner's mates, PENWITH and DIVIDED ATTENTION.

Fourth Race
1. Awesome Lute 2. American Mink 3. Leatherhead Lurie
AWESOME LUTE was reclaimed by his original connections right away, spent four months on the sidelines and went well finishing a clear second to a loose front-end winner when returned to dirt at the fall meet; has found a suitable spot. AMERICAN MINK is a half-brother to five winners, three of which earned $117K or more; gets weight from most of the experienced runners. LEATHERHEAD LURIE was along to edge BAD TO THE ROAN for second at boxcar odds first time on the inner dirt; shorter price for this.

Fifth Race
1. Wavell Avenue 2. Bounty Pink 3. Ginny's Grey
WAVELL AVENUE is a "double fig" after posting back-to-back wins with superior Beyers; caveat is the Nov. 29 starter allowance was aided by the track, but at least the runner-up came back to win last week. BOUNTY PINK is now 5 for 5 on dirt for Linda Rice, after coming back from a layoff to score closing week at the fall meet; the streak began with a route win on the inner track. GINNY'S GREY has been in the money 15 of 16 dirt starts; wide in return from short layoff against Agawa, who is entered in the Affectionately earlier on this card.

Sixth Race
1. First Sensation 2. Mama Zee 3. Bridget Moloney
You're going to have to find excuses for the last races of most of these $12,500 claimers, and that includes FIRST SENSATION, who never raised a gallop at Parx a month ago, but drops and has won twice previously following similar defeats; profitable trainer-jockey combo. MAMA ZEE was dreadful at 8-5 less than three weeks back, giving futile chase to a loose Discreet Force on a speed-favoring track; that effort seems simply too bad to be true...right? BRIDGET MOLONEY isn't too far removed from her lifetime top Beyer on Nov. 5, which came on very short rest.

Seventh Race
1. Sean and Matt 2. The Spotted Wonder 3. Mambo At the Gym
Judging from his big-figure maiden win on the lead, followed by two lesser efforts rallying from the rear-half of the field, SEAN AND MATT may be the type who wants to be involved early; he may get better position stretching out to two turns, but will need some racing luck from the far outside in a puzzler of a starter allowance. THE SPOTTED WONDER has put together four straight in-the-money finishes, beating the top pick and PEACEFUL TALK most recently; only two-turn try on dirt was nearly two years ago. MAMBO AT THE GYM comes off a big win over off-the-turf maidens opening day; may have found a home on the inner dirt.

Eighth Race
1. La Bella Valeria 2. Spinit to Winit 3. Ms. Sylvia A.
LA BELLA VALERIA missed the first seven months of 2014 after being claimed here last winter, but returned with a vengeance to win or place in her first five starts for Chris Englehart on a variety of footing; can set or stalk the pace as situation warrants. SPINIT TO WINIT comes off her two fastest races, beginning with a belated run to get third behind the choice Nov. 5; good try in last vs. the upwardly mobile Sister Margaret. MS. SYLVIA A. had the summer off, returned to get second behind N2x repeater Blithely, then got through N1x conditions with a late run at 6 1/2 furlongs; romped over maidens only start on the inner dirt.

Ninth Race
1. Broken Border 2. Stolen Victory 3. Jules N Rome
BROKEN BORDER didn't seriously menace a loose-on-the-lead Alexandrie ($3.40) in grass bow, yet finished well to get second over two next-out winners; half-brother Big Gus was a maiden winner on dirt in 2014 for these same connections. STOLEN VICTORY improved first time over the track to wind up better than 10 lengths ahead of SARATIAGO under these conditions opening day; logical threat moving inside. JULES N ROME showed some promise in off-the-turf races during the fall; best figure was earned only time on a fast track.