Courtesy of ShapperDaCapper
TOP PLAYS OF DAY
R7 #9 Night Prowler
R11 #1 Dobra Historia
BOXCARS OF DAY
R3 #9 Gram
R5 #3 Cliffs of Dover
R8 #1 Bluegrass Singer
RACE 1- 2-5-13-6
The first Saturday card of 2015 at Gulfstream Park commences with an open $20k claimer going a mile and a sixteenth over the grass. 3-1 ML favorite (5) Overton Square enters this one off a nice score over this course on December 12th. He faces his toughest task yet on Saturday, but many in this one are past their prime including (6) Concert Stage. This eight-year old son of Concerto has won 12 races over his 35-race career and can win this, but is far from peak form to start the new calendar year. (2) One More Cat was in stakes company a little over a year ago and now reaches his lowest level in ages. A ground saving voyage should have this son of Discreet Cat in the thick of things when they turn for home. (7) Live In Joy will be overbet, but has a shot to hit the board. (13) Cheyenne Nation is dangerous if he draws in off the AE list.
RACE 2- 5-2-9-3
The second race starts the early Pick 4 and is a MSW event for three-year old fillies at seven panels over the main track. (9) Distinta is the logical 2-1 ML favorite for trainer Gustavo Delgado off of two-second place efforts. This daughter of Summer Bird should be there again, but we prefer a few runners with a bit more value. Firstly. (5) Celestine makes her second career start after being heavily backed against the favorite in her debut. If she moves forward at all she can beat Distinta. We also give a huge look to long shot (2) Improv. This daughter of Distorted Humor is out of a productive mare and has been training well for the connections of G Watts Humphrey Jr. and Rusty Arnold. Arnold’s stats are not amazing with debut runners, but he is more than capable especially in this group. (3) Endless Chat could be a runner for Juddmonte Farms, but he likely needs one given Bill Mott’s track record.
RACE 3- 9-10-1-8
The third is a $25k maiden claimer at six furlongs over the main track. (1) Caramelo will take a lot of money based on the barn change and the second place effort last time out, but we prefer others on top in this one. (10) Abiceb Brothers makes a lot of sense at 6-1 on the ML. This son of Flashstorm makes his first start for the Gustavo Delgado barn and draws Javier Castellano. He should run a big one on the drop. Our top choice and boxcar selection in this one is (9) Gram for trainer Ralph Nicks. This son of Malmonides gets Paco Lopez for his second career start after taking some money at $50k in his debut. We are expecting a big effort on Saturday. (2) Malekith, (3) Third Cup O Coffee, and (8) Unlock the Storm are all price horses that have a shot to outrun their odds.
RACE 4- 1-6-7-3
The fourth is the Grade III Old Hat Stakes run at six furlongs over the main track. This three-year old filly event is led by the presence of 7-5 ML favorite (1) Fashion Alert. This daughter of Old Fashioned makes her fourth career start for trainer Todd Pletcher after stopping in the Grade I Alcibades at a mile and a sixteenth at Keeneland in October. TAP gave this one a brief freshening and this one should be ready to roll. The rail is a tiny concern off the layoff, but she should be fine. If Fashion Alert does not run her race, (6) Temper Mint Patty could be the one to beat from off the pace. (7) Ekati’s Phaeton and (5) Concealedwithakiss will likely be involved early, but could compromise each other’s chances. R (3) Sassy Lass should be ready to run a big one for the hot Kirk Ziadie barn, but not sure if her best is good enough.
RACE 5- 3-5-11-6
The fifth is a MSW event for three-year olds going one mile over the Gulfstream Park lawn. (12) More Front is the 7-2 ML favorite off of a heavily backed fourth place effort in his debut. This Clement Stable runner had a perfect trip, but had no real punch and is worth taking a shot against. Our top choice and boxcar selection will be (3) Cliffs of Dover for trainer Thomas Bush. This son of English Channel is well bred on both sides for the turf and ran a solid fourth for a barn that generally does not have horses “cranked up” first time out. This one is our top choice, but we also will use long shot debut runner (2) Lone Trader based on connections and pedigree. (5) White Bay, (6) Innocuous, and (11) Bravo Charlie are also contenders in a great betting race.
RACE 6- 10-12-7-5
The sixth starts the 20-cent Rainbow 6 and is a five-furlong turf sprint for optional claimers. (2) Golden Story is the 3-1 ML favorite and one of the likely pacesetters for trainer David Jacobson. This five-year old son of Medaglia d’Oro is dangerous if he can shake loose, but if not we see him as quite vulnerable. (6) Moonwalker is the other likely favorite. This son of Congrats should sit a great trip off the pace under Luis Saez, but has he lost his confidence after being outrun in two stakes events to end 2014. (10) Defiant should be right on the lead and loves this distance. We think he is the most likely winner, but we also will use long shots (5) Saturdayatbernies, (7) Manofmanyvirtues and (12) Over and Back if he draws in off the AE list.
RACE 7- 9-4-6-8
The seventh starts the Pick 5 sequence and is the $100,000 Grade III Dania Beach Stakes run at seven and a half furlongs over the Gulfstream Park turf course. We really like the look of Chad Brown trainee (9) Night Prowler. Brown is excelling with young turf routers and this one has shown a tremendous kick thus far. Javier Castellano returns after a wide journey may have cost this one in the Pulpit Stakes at GP West in late November. He should be rolling late. (6) Smokem Kitten ran them off their feet in his debut, but we prefer to not take a short price on a runner facing winners for the first time. (4) A Lot makes a lot of sense for trainer Bill Mott, but this one’s only victory was a six furlongs. (8) Croninthebarbarian had a perfect trip in the Pulpit and was caught, but he still has a shot on Saturday. (10) Crown the Kitten and (5) Wayward Kitten will both take money for Wesley Ward and certainly have a chance.
RACE 8- 1-10-11-4
The eighth is the $100,000 Spectacular Bid Stakes for three-year olds run at six furlongs over the main track. Named for one of the all-time greats, this one appears to be a total crapshoot. (10) Ready for Rye is the most logical winner coming off a monster win at Belmont Park in October, but the price makes him tough to back. (11) It’s Not Me also looks to be a runner, but there is a ton of other pace and the outside draw could be rough. If he stays in this field and does not run in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, we are going to make (1) Bluegrass Singer our top choice and boxcar selection for trainer Marcus Vitali. This son of Bluegrass Cat cuts back in distance and should get a perfect trip right off the pace setters for jockey Gabriel Saez. If he can rate along the rail, he should have plenty left when they turn for home. (4) Purim’s Gold and (5) Tizcano are interesting price plays.
RACE 9- 9-5-7-2
The ninth is the $100,000 Ginger Brew Stakes run at seven and a half furlongs over the turf. We will use a few in this one including Kelly Breen runner (5) Sunday Sonnet. This filly is bred to like the grass and has faced better recently. If Paco Lopez can avoid an early pace duel, this one has a huge shot to win her first over the lawn. (7) Cardinal Cove is 2 for 2 for trainer Kathy O’Connell and draws well for her stakes debut. She should be rolling late. (9) Devine Aida is the third we like in here. This daughter of Unbridled’s Song gets Lasix for the first time and has shown serious ability in her first three starts for trainer Roman Morales.
RACE 10- 9-7-2-8
The tenth is the $100,000 Mucho Macho Man Stakes run at one mile over the main track. Not much of an opinion in this one. (9) Mawthooq looks like the real deal for Kiaran McLaughlin and the Shadwell Stable, but the price will just not be right. (8) Brother Bobo should be tough for Jason Servis if this son of Kantharos can get the distance. (7) Juan and Bina has run two great races and likely will be there in the end. (2) Ami’s Flatter and (5) Twotwentyfive A are the best price options.
RACE 11- 1-2-5-3
The finale is a $30k claimer for non-winners of two run at one mile over the grass. (1) Dobra Historia takes a serious drop in class for trainer Bill Mott. This son of Unbridled’s Song has been disappointing to start his career, but Mott usually means business when he makes drops like this. Johnny V gets the call on our final top play of the week. Javier Castellano sticks around to ride Mark Frostad’s son of Lemon Drop Kid, (2) Classy Kid. This one has been running much better of late and should be strongly considered given his 10-1 ML price. (3) Niche has shown speed in his two turf tries and gets Lasix for the first time in this one. (5) Lunar Tales returns to the lawn after two wash off races and has a shot.
GOOD LUCK TODAY!
