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Aqueduct - Dave Litfin

BEST BET: Discreet Force (9th race)

First Race
1. Malad 2. First Spark 3. Native Hawk
Indian Charlies are wild in Friday's opener, as Kiaran McLaughlin's pair from Shadwell Stable take on one from Todd Pletcher that is up from Palm Beach Downs. I'll bite on MALAD, a half-brother to a five-time winner, whose two recent bullet workouts from the gate were ranked 1/55 & 1/158; his entrymate, MADROOS, was a good second from post 12 first time in blinkers. FIRST SPARK shipped from Florida and recorded a bullet gate work last week; he is the first runner out Etincelle, a half-sister to several stakes winners that banked $200K or more. NATIVE HAWK chased a fast pace and beat half the field in an encouraging debut while dismissed at 68-1; drawn inside again with a big rider switch.

Second Race
1. Hurry Up Alan 2. Petrocelli 3. Call for the Clock
HURRY UP ALAN is a bit hard to gauge after failing to fire off a 47-day break at six furlongs, but the off-the-pace type stretches back out, and his "A" race - dispensed at three distances last fall on dirt - is clearly best among these; claimed from last three, most recently by hot trainer. PETROCELLI probably found 6 1/2 furlongs too short against the choice last Oct. 31; he is in better form now, climaxed by two peak efforts over the track against open claimers. CALL FOR THE CLOCK is at his absolute best out of the chute on the main track, yet posted a maiden victory on the inner, and seems consistent enough to use in exotics along with infrequent winner SOUTHBEACHSANDY.

Third Race
1. Checkupfromzneckup 2. Dragonberry 3. Jcs American Dream
This will be the first time CHECKUPFROMZNECKUP gets to run over the same track twice, and she returned with a good try chasing three wide in her first start at 4; should benefit from that initial experience at two turns. DRAGONBERRY was bet to even money for her first allowance attempt, but you're not going to win many races at Gulfstream racing five wide around the turn, so she went well to just miss second; runs her race every time, and her typical fig may be good enough here. JCS AMERICAN DREAM comes off the two fastest races of her life beating SAYTHREEHAILMARY'S in a statebred allowance, and chasing hard-knocking Amulay in a more advanced optional claiming condition two weeks ago; loses Junior Alvarado, who sticks with potential pacesetter FULL OF SUGAR.

Fourth Race
1. Baby Snacks 2. Candid Desire 3. Apollo Eleven
Bill Mott's stats with first-time starters are not encouraging, but his Rectify was bet to favoritism when unveiled last weekend and ran second, so perhaps BABY SNACKS is live as well; he is a full brother to multiple NYB stakes winner Saratoga Snacks, has the rail, and meets rivals who haven't come near the 77 Beyer par on dirt. Kind of ironic one of the main contenders is trained by Gary Sciacca, who knows Saratoga Snacks like the back of his hand and will try to stop the choice with CANDID DESIRE, who was compromised by a speed bias Feb. 14, and chased the stakes-bound Final Chapter before that; edging forward by the numbers. APOLLO ELEVEN looked home free as the choice but couldn't seal the deal while drifting late Dec. 28; half-sib to $500K earner Giant Moon figures close with Candid Desire and a handful of others with similar Beyer tops in low 60s.

Fifth Race
1. Pete's Fleet 2. Sidearm 3. Bajan Summer
PETE'S FLEET was picked up for $7,500 early at Finger Lakes last spring and improved noticeably through six more starts into late July, by which time he had already run 14 times as a 3-year-old; he has trained regularly and is taken to come back running. SIDEARM is another tricky read making his first start since big leap to a 90 Beyer in the mud early last June; he has since been gelded, and was in the money all five tries on the inner dirt last winter. BAJAN SUMMER has run well repeatedly for Irad Ortiz Jr., and reunites with that rider after checking early and getting shuffled back into the turn vs. restricted claimers; like the top two, he needs someone to pressure PERFECT DISCO early.

Sixth Race
1. Sebonack 2. Beyond the Green 3. Damage Control
In a one-mile maiden race originally scheduled for last Friday, SEBONACK caught a major break when his two main rivals got the two outside posts at the redraw; although he spots experience at the distance, he was bet to odds-on for a pace-pressing debut at six furlongs, and nominal improvement could put him over the top. BEYOND THE GREEN has been in the money each of four starts at a mile and up while handling fast, good and muddy tracks; could get a better pace setup for rematch with DAMAGE CONTROL. The latter sped clear early and led to deep stretch at boxcar odds when stretched out in the mud Jan. 19; likely to face more pressure here against a handful of rivals stretching out that are drawn to his inside.

Seventh Race
1. Igotthediscoinme 2. Kool Kat Strut 3. Si Cology
IGOTTHEDISCOINME has put together paired Beyer tops since stretched out on fast and muddy inner dirt tracks, each time with two-move running lines; he is realistically spotted first time against winners, and may be in position to control the pace. KOOL KAT STRUT was beaten by some of these last fall at Belmont, before improving substantially on a good main track at Aqueduct's fall meet to prevail in a maiden special; tough post for first outing in four months. SI COLOGY appeared headed the right way through four starts at Laurel last fall, capped by a willing finish to get third behind Pancakesandbatter, a $75,000 maiden winner at Saratoga; he has since changed hands, and returns for a trainer who has sent out two big-priced winners recently.

Eighth Race
1. N. F.'s Destiny 2. Jeter 3. Billy the Bull
Except for a tough-trip fifth to close out 2014, N. F.'S DESTINY has been no worse than second since last August, and recently got his mojo back to win with speed to spare first off a claim by his current outfit; although ostensibly stepping up, he is consistently faster than most of these. JETER has had a break since off slow and wide on short rest in a sloppy Hollie Hughes; other than that, he hadn't been in with statebreds since winning over the main track on Halloween. BILLY THE BULL had a difficult task when brought back for first start in nearly three months vs. Classic Salsa, who upped his inner-track record to 3 for 4 that day; best figs delivered on turf and wet tracks so far.

Ninth Race
1. Discreet Force 2. Ecoach 3. Darling Bridezilla
DISCREET FORCE has two wins and a second from three starts this winter against $10,000 sprinters, and looks hard to stop at another short price after cruising at 4-5; reliable anchor to conclude multi-race exotics. ECOACH chased the top pick throughout when disqualified from second to third for tightening things up on Island Candy - the only mare to ever beat Discreet Force on the inner track; third off the bench now. DARLING BRIDEZILLA a dropdown to consider, after stumbling badly at the start for $16,000 second off the claim by savvy owner-trainer; game try dueling in the slop two back.

SANTA ANITA - BRAD FREE

BEST BET: RACE 6, SHORT HEAT WAVE

FIRST RACE
First-time starter PERFECTLY MAJESTIC debuts with works that suggest he is ready to roll, including a bullet five-eighths early this month followed by an easy half. Trainer Bob Hess and jockey Kent Desormeaux, since May, are 4-for-8 together with first-time starters. Bred for speed, “live” first out. MY OLE BUD had a tough trip first time out. He steadied at the start, steadied again on the turn, and kept running late to finish fourth. He might have been best. Freshened two month since, the gray has a series of sharp works and might only need clear sailing to win second out at the same maiden-75 class level. DOMINGO CAT returns from a seven-month layoff, for his second start. He finished a creditable fourth in his debut last summer. First-time starter BLUE ANCHOR has decent enough workouts; LAMBO LUXX figures close off his runner-up finish two starts back against California-bred maiden-50s.

SECOND RACE
A good third last out in a stakes, DIAMOND MAJESTY drops to N1X for 3-year-olds in a turf sprint that should unfold at a sufficiently quick pace to flatter his late kick. He does like this hillside course, having won a maiden race in October, followed this meet by back-to-back thirds in allowance and stakes. STORMY LIBERAL also has run well on the hill (maiden winner October). Two turns was too far last out for ‘LIBERAL, who shortens to a sprint and takes off blinkers. He might tuck into a cozy trip positioned third behind front-runners PAT THE BEAR and RICHARD’S BOY, both trying turf for the first time. ‘BEAR is quick, but versatile. He won a $65k claiming sprint two back rallying from fourth. RICHARD’S BOY wired main-track maidens last out, and has a solid workout pattern since then for trainer Herb Bacorn.

THIRD RACE
Runner-up in a highly rated claiming race for 4-year-old claiming fillies, UNDERHILL DRIVE makes a parallel class move to $25k claiming fillies and mares, non-winners of two. She has enough speed to be forwardly placed; blinkers on. She is trained by Peter Miller, who also entered SPY GIRL. The latter is a front-runner that last out was unable to establish position inside, and finished last in the same race the top choice exits. The drop helps the top pair. TURN ON looms an upset candidate, dropping from California-bred N1X to restricted claiming with an off-the-pace running style opposite the top pair. If the pace collapses, TURN ON has a crazy chance from behind. COMIN’OFFTHEBENCH runs well fresh, having won her career debut last summer by more than six lengths. This is her first start in nearly four months.

FOURTH RACE
In a highly competitive $12.5k claiming sprint for fillies and mares, OSCILLATOR might be the right horse in her comeback. She won at this level last fall, and returns with a string of solid workouts for her first start since. And she runs well fresh. She won her career debut by more than five lengths and in summer 2013, and later finished second with a good number (83 Beyer) returning from a seven-month layoff. Looks like trainer Jorge Periban has her ready to fire. TEMPE is a mystery. A stakes winner last spring, she completely misfired in her N2X comeback, and now drops to a low level second start back. Not sure about her current ability, but she should lead as far as she can. PATRIOTIC BROTHER is 3-for-3 in claiming races, with speed and an outside post for a pressing trip.

FIFTH RACE
When she runs her best race, MISS ELLANY is too fast for these $25k claiming fillies and mares. But she does not always fire. ‘ELLANY finished last as the favorite in her most recent start in January. Freshened since, dropping to a new low, the speed of the field in this mile turf race, she is the choice to lead gate to wire. She bookended the field each of her last seven starts, finishing either first or last. LOVE BLIND split the field in two recent comeback efforts at slightly higher levels. She drops one more level and changes to top rider Kent Desormeaux. ALWAYS A CHANCE could get a great trip positioned second behind the top choice. If the leader falters, then ‘CHANCE would be the first to attack. SORESCA figures as a “live” longshot. Her closing style is opposite the top choice, and her speed figures put her close enough. Upset candidate from far back?

SIXTH RACE
This California-bred allowance at one mile came up relatively light on speed. The scenario benefits SHORT HEAT WAVE, runner-up last out in a fast-pace starter allowance. He finished more than four clear of third, earned a big number (89 Beyer) and is likely to get a comfortable trip up front as the pacesetter or pace-presser. The only knock is he is racing over his conditions; he could be entered in another maiden-40 starter allowance rather than Calbred N1X. Nonetheless, on paper ‘WAVE is a “good thing.” ODIN powered to a visually impressive turf sprint win last out; he has run well also on dirt. This is his first try around two turns; no reason he won’t stay a mile. SYNNIN stretches to a route of ground and switches to dirt, first off the claim. He is likely to be positioned within striking range of the top choice.

SEVENTH RACE
SWEET SWAP has lost three straight as the favorite, and yet should be favored again in this turf sprint allowance. It’s a class drop for ‘SWAP, a downhill horse-for-course with a pressing style that should play well in a field without much in the way of early heat. First start since late January, it’s his race to win or lose with a forwardly placed trip. Trust him? Not really. U S CITIZEN is a legitimate alternative to the favorite. His most recent start can be discounted due the surface switch, but he does like this downhill turf course. His four most-recent starts on this course produced two wins (including one via dq), a second and a third. He and the top choice looks like the two speeds. If they stay out of each other’s way, they could make it a parade. Recommendation is to include both in multi-race wagers. GLOBAL VIEW is a graded stakes winner around two turns, probably using this sprint as a prep race for his first start since September. On the other hand, he will be finishing and he won a turf sprint here as a 2-year-old. SPRING UP is a 6-for-14 pro making his first start since July. A stablemate of the top choice, he can sprint.

EIGHTH RACE
D’ CHURCH finished more than nine lengths clear of third in a highly rated runner-up debut. He subsequently was sold and will make his first start for Reddam Racing and trainer Simon Callaghan. From the inside post, he’ll have to “go.” Catch him to win. NARDO showed promise his only start last May, runner-up while many lengths clear of third. Steady work pattern for his comeback. Front-runner K THIRTY EIGHT returns from a long layoff, and is likely to produce speed. THE LAST EXPRESS is a first-time starter sired by the top debut stallion In Excess.

GOLDEN GATE - CHUCK DYBDAL

BEST BET: RACE 4, TIM’S GO GIRL

FIRST RACE
SPENDING PLAN
BEAUTIFUL DESERT
AUDREYS DOLLY

SECOND RACE
STORM FASHION
CONDIMENT
SIX VOTES

THIRD RACE
HIMALAYA STAR
EL TIO FERNANDO
JOHNNY BE MINE

FOURTH RACE
TIM’S GO GIRL
POWER OF TEN
SUDDEN SUNDAY

FIFTH RACE
EGYPTIAN EMPIRE
ONEDEWOMAN
PURPLE ROSE

SIXTH RACE
OLYMPIC JUMBLE
BORNATTHETRACK
ROGER WAY

SEVENTH RACE
JUST LET IT SLIDE
JACKPOT JOE
STRAIGHT BOURBON

Gulfstream - Ron Nicoletti

1: 6-3-5
2: 7-3-1
3: 3-6-2
4: 4-6-8
5: 5-3-2
6: 3-2-4
7: 3-5-10
8: 7-5-6
9: 5-3-7
10: 2-11-4

Oaklawn - Terry

1st race
3-Red Deputy’s Girl
11-Tinsley’s District
6-Nicoles Bullett
9-Innocent Storm

2nd race
1-Baby Wildcat
4-Louwala Clough
3-Queen of Scioto
8-Molly Z

3rd race
9-Hall of Fame
6-Star Struck Steve
7-Ameridude
1-Mr. Peabody

4th race
6-Berry Knoll
3-Sheridan’s Bling
2-Box Office Appeal
5-Motivare

5th race
5-Faith Rising
3-Huggins and Kissin
9-Jean’s Beauty
4- R Nanalee

6th race
6-Aloha Daddy
3-Cowboy Ed
2-Montezuma Express
1-Federico

7th race
12-No Rules Now
10-Lawyer Daggett
3-Right Squall
8-Dance Floor Maniac

8th race
5-Sweet Opportunity
3-Calypso Run
9-Rose to Glory
1-Harlans Belle

9th race
5-You Should Be Here
8-The Strip
11-Echo Warrior
4-Treasure Box

Best Bet 8th race, #5 Sweet Opportunity

Best Longshot 6th race, #6 Aloha Daddy

Tampa Bay - Andrew

Race 1:
(4) Idon'tknowgoaskanni
(1) Give Me Thy Heart
(8) G's Backinaction

Race 2:
(1) Watch My Purse
(8) Wilderside
(2) Run Slado Run

Race 3:
(4) Lochte
(6) Developer
(5) Allie's Event

Race 4:
(8) Naughty Humor
(5) Red River Heidi
(1) Effortlessly

Race 5:
(6) Livingston's Lady
(11) Midnight Patois
(9) Bern's Baby Girl

Race 6:
(6) Chosen Heir
(5) Pio's Passion
(1) Steve Came Thru

Race 7:
(2) Space Race
(5) Thunder Lord
(1) Short Round

Race 8:
(9) Red Letter
(10) Tres Hermanas
(1) Desert Bliss

Race 9:
(6) Pentland
(11) De Price
(3) Eight Riders

Race 10:
(5) Havlicek
(3) Fehsenfeld
(6) Coraggio

Aqueduct (3rd) Full of Sugar, 6-1
(6th) Damage Control, 9-2

Charles Town (2nd) Gotta Slide, 5-1
(8th) Sweet Tangena, 4-1

Delta Downs (2nd) Flash Sonday's, 4-1
(5th) Hustlin Nu, 7-2

Fair Grounds (7th) Cat With a Twist, 7-2
(8th) Ty's Bandit, 7-2

Golden Gate Fields (5th) Purple Rose, 3-1
(6th) Aperfectdaytofly, 4-1

Gulfstream Park (8th) Theresas Candyrose, 7-2
(10th) Lavallee Twist, 4-1

Hawthorne (2nd) Gothic Princess, 9-2
(5th) Braveheart Native, 4-1

Laurel Park (1st) Under the Bridge, 5-1
(4th) Silent Ronin, 5-1

Oaklawn Park (1st) Red Deputy's Girl, 4-1
(7th) Lawyer Daggett, 4-1

Penn National (5th) Parrakeet, 4-1
(6th) Navy Cross, 9-2

Santa Anita (2nd) Pat the Bear, 3-1
(6th) Storm Comin Thru, 8-1

Tampa Bay Downs (2nd) Watch My Purse, 3-1
(8th) Desert Bliss, 9-2

Turfway Park (7th) Finnertys Fire, 3-1
(9th) Derby Eve, 5-1

Gulfstream Park courtesy of Kevin Cox


Race 1

Love to start out the day with a race I can sink my teeth into. Let's look at the #5 WELCOME SPEECH in depth. She didn't really show much in her debut, but hey, it was her debut and she was 33-1 that day. I dove right into the chart of that race, and what I'm going to type next will be the speed figures of the finishers from that heat, followed by their next starts : 73-77 71-76 71-70 70-71 68-66 64-74 26-59 24-52 10-71 7-38. Geez, look at the improvement on most of those animals. The median number of that bunch was break even, but the average horse improved 16 points. Now let's say, just for argument's sake, that 'Speech just stands pat from that last race. The adjusted figure is a 68.8. no one in here is showing more than a 64. 19% Clement is 23% with a $2.01 ROI with this kind of drop in turf routes, and the sire was a 4 time Group One winner on the lawn. Let's start out the day with a robust winner, shall we ? #6 WESTMINSTER ROAD appears to have the best shot should the top choice falter. Two of the three races were top flight, but will need some pace to cut into. #7 BLUEGRASS SPECIAL completes the 5-6-7 ( we hope ! ) triple with the addition of blinkers today on the dropdown for Vitali. OFF TURF: 3-1-10(MTO)-5-8


Race 2

#1 THIS QUAY HOME gets the job done, regardless of the double up in claiming price first off the claim for low% connections. Saez sticks around. #7 GDANSK did some good things on the dirt last year ( 3:1-1-1 ) so not sure why it's taken the connections 5 starts to get her back on the stuff this winter ( hoof issues ? ). Anyway, she's never been entered for a lower price, and expecting a sharp effort today. #2 DARNLEY BAY won this race a month ago. Number came back decent enough, and will be precipitously lower in the odds department today.


Race 3

I feel it's a two ( perhaps 3 ) horse race here. Gonna go with the logical one on top. #3 ALACO CASTLE has hit the exacta in 8 straight, and crashed the tri in 24 of 30 lifetime, so you know the consistency is there. Winner of last put up an 85 Beyer when finishing 6th in a $300,000 stakes next out, and the winner of the prior start hung up an 89 number in a $19K Starter/Optional Claimer next out, so not expecting any major regression here. The one with the best shot of getting past the top choice would be the #6 CHEPSTOW. This gelding ran a monster figure when finishing 2nd behind a next out winner off a 6 month L/O 6 months ago, so at least you know it can be done. Front wraps were on that day, so take a gander in the paddock for trainer that's 6-7 ITM with half-a-year layoff returnees. #1 PASS KEY is a cheapish but game animal that may suck up for 3rd.


Race 4

#6 FAN BASE, as game as they come, was recently snagged by "Supertrainer" Loza from Alaska-cold Farro in last, 32% trainer gets 39% with new purchases, and you'd have to figure that he's gonna get a little more out of this gelding than the last barn. #8 LIVE IN JOY was compelled to employ new tactics in last when breaking from the 12 hole, and you know what--they worked near perfectly as the 7YO "horse" ( Good for you, Jack ! ) just missed at 7-1. #3 WHISPER ON THE WIND has hit the board in 3 of last 4 against similar. Logical inclusion. OFF TURF: 1-11(MTO)-5-12(MTO)-3


Race 5

Not feeling it this race---just wanted to let ya'll know. #3 ALFREDO ROMANA was claimed nearly 3 months ago by Petro/Calabrese, and there's one thing I know about Frank---he likes wins. So it's no surprise to see his entrant today with a "75% off" sticker attached to his rump. Petro is 4:1-1-1 with this particular drop after a claim, and colt is an obvious major threat if sound. #1 MIND SPELL gets in light, and that's always a play in a bad field. #4 MIRACLE JOEY was plucked from last by Jorge "The New Greatest Trainer That Ever Lived" Navarro, who while a mere 28% conditioner day to day, is a stratospheric 12 for 18 ( 66.66666667% ) when first off the low level claim in dirt sprints, 8-30 days ( 83% ITM and a $3.91 ROI ).


Race 6

#6 SIR ORONICO far outran his turf pedigree in the last two, and DiMauro must've liked what he saw two starts back ( thinking dirt here ), 'cause he saw fit to plunk down a quarter for him in last. He happens to be 2-6 when claiming maiden claimers, and he's also an incredible 11:4-1-3 ( 36% and a 73% ITM rate; $5.89 ROI ) when removing blinkers off of dirt sprinters. ( That's not to be confused with taking blinkers off for the first time. In the DRF Formulator program, it's called "Switch To Off". ) That's a heavy duty number for a 14% trainer, and I'll be knocking down little ol' ladies to get to the windows for this one. #3 WHITCOMB HILL put up a big number in first try off the bench, but judging by the prior figures, a regression wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility. Still, toss in on your rollers just in case he's really figured the game out. #4 EXCELLENT PROSPECT ( CHI ) ... ( speaking of things related to Chile, watching this great movie 'Alive' tonight about the Uruguayan rugby team whose plane crashed in the Andes---awesome story )...anyway, this fella is halved in price, cuts back 1/16th, and recently had something else cut. Price play.


Race 7

#10 CANZONI may not appear to be very much at first glance, but she's been involved in some tough heats ( with a few excuses ) and now finds herself in a reasonable Optional Claimer. It should be worth noting that in the past 5 years, Pletcher has entered a total of 148 horses in O/Clm. turf routes, and "only" won with 18% of them. However...133 of those horses were protected by not having been eligible to be claimed. How'd the other 15 do ? How does 6 wins ( 40% ) with an ROI of $3.43 grab you? What that points out with a great trainer like T.P., is that when he feels there's a chance that the horse may be snagged ( and two of them were ), he has them ready. #8 NEOCLASSIC is peaking right now, as he has gone 60-65-70-81-81 in his last 5 ( albeit against slightly cheaper ), and gets a solid replacement for Castellano in Serpa. Well, you know where #4 CHARLIE MOPS will be today, however there appears to be some added front end competition in this spot. Still, those two running lines are sexy to the eye, and we'll leave in the hopper. OFF TURF: 2-10-5-3-9


Race 8

One of the more enjoyable aspects of writing this column is when I have plenty of time to dive headfirst into the PP's like I want to. For example I'm getting into today's column on Monday night ( thank you DRF ), and while at first glance I saw this as a tough race to sink my fangs into, I ended up finding a pretty neat stat with the #7 RAMBLE ( which I'm prone to do at times ! ). Now, even without looking at stats, I know that when Mott gets a horse going good, they stay good for a while. This miss won smartly from the 11 hole 40 days back, and know is entered for a tag. Okay, so I looked up all Mott maiden breakers that came back turf routing for a tag in their next start, and wadda we got ? 3 for 9 ( $18.60, $19.60 & $5.60 for an ROI of $4.87 ). Pretty healthy, huh ? Well, being it's late at night, I decided to manually go deeper in those 9 starts only to find out that NONE of them broke their maiden in a MDSPWT. That means that in 5 years, this is Mott's first maiden special weight winner that has been entered for a tag in a turf route next out. Pretty wild, huh ? What do we take from this ? Well, skeptics may say, "He must not be confident, because where's the obligatory hike into A1X territory." Not me. What I'm saying is that he called Dell Hancock and said "Listen, you bred this horse for 5K, and we survived an 11 month layoff---let's not play around with this one--let's get one more quick purse and maybe get $50,000 to boot." Or, maybe I'm wrong, and he's not confident, I don't know -- ha ! #1 LATE NIGHT ARTRIST & #6 SMART AND SOFT as good as any remaining, should Ramble not live up to his moniker. OFF TURF: 5-10(MTO)-1-4-8


Race 9

#7 ASIA repeats today, aided by the fact that the runner up from her maiden breaker won next out with a 75 Beyer. I came thisclose to putting the #3 KATIE'S KISS in the top spot, based on her breakthrough performance in last, but I just couldn't bring myself to do it as Valdivia has looked God awful in the saddle this meet. Sometimes you just have to say "Let 'em beat me." #1 HANGOVER SATURDAY has been tangling with some salty critters ( and even won a stakes race versus some of them ), and now finds herself with a big jockey switch ( despite the fact that I've never been a huge fan of long limbed riders in turf sprints, ( and McCarthy is a vertical dude ) as I've always felt that shorter arms=more rapid pumping that these races sometimes call for. OFF TURF: 7-1-5-4-3


Race 10

In a field of of horses that like to lose ground in the last 1/8th, there's but one entered that actually gained ground coming home in last---the #1 INDY SHIPPER. Bay mare blitzed a handful of quarter claimers on the dirt up at Tampa in last, and lone "firm" turf try yielded an adjusted figure of 86.7. Trainer is 0-3 when shipping here, but did have a runner up finish with this rider at 40-1 in a stakes. #11 SPECTACULAR ME is good enough to ring up another 2nd here, but not good enough to overcome the outside draw and the oh-70 barn, I believe. #10 MISS TAPIT has thrown but one clunker in the last two calendar years and is a sensible play underneath with these. OFF TURF: 4-8-1-5-7

TAMPA DOWNS courtesy of Saratoga Phil


Race 6
10 Will Run for Beer 4-1
7 Nuestra Senor 7-2*
6 Chosen Heir 3-1
2 Plime Blank 8-1

Race 7
8 It Takes Heart 10-1
2 Space Race 9-5
1 Short Round 6-1
5 Thunder Lord 3-1
7 Cowboy Luke 8-1

Race 8
9 Red Letter 3-1
10 Tres Hermanas 4-1
1 Desert Bliss 9-2

Race 9
4 Give Me Liberty 15-1
11 De Price 3-2
9 Pocket Medal 8-1
6 Pentland 4-1
3 Eight Riders 5-1

Race 10
3 Fehsenfeld 5-2
6 Coraggio 6-1
1 Bob and Jim 8-1
9 Gallant Pursuit 7-2
524

Best Bet
Race 9 #4 Give Me Liberty

$0.50 Pick Five
Race 6
710/28/9/4911/36
total $12.00

$0.50 Late Pick Four
Race 7
12345678/9/4911/36
28/110/4911/36
28/9/36/36
28/9/4911/12459
total $55.00

Cheers!

Rick Needham

RACE #6 - AQUEDUCT

#9 BEYOND THE GREEN
#10 DAMAGE CONTROL
#2 SEBONACK
#7 MCQUAID

#9 BEYOND THE GREEN, takes a class drop (-8), and has hit the board in four straight, with his last three "board hit efforts," also qualifying as "POWER RUNS." Jockey Ken Carmouche and Trainer James Ryerson send him to the post ... they've hit the board with an impressive 68% of their entries saddled as a team to date, with their 31% win rate producing a +104% return on investment in the process. #10 DAMAGE CONTROL is 9-2 in the morning line, is the overall speed and pace profile leader in this maiden field, takes a class drop (-6), and comes off a "POWER RUN PLACE" finish in his last start, missing a "Circle Trip" in that race by less than a length, in a determined attempt to earn his "diploma!"

Walker Group

Golden Gate - Race 7

# 4 JUST LET IT SLIDE 5/2
# 8 ATACAMA DESERT 20/1
# 2 JACKPOT JOE 3/1

I favor JUST LET IT SLIDE here. Has run soundly when racing a dirt sprint race. Recorded a strong speed rating in the last race. Can run another good one in this race. ATACAMA DESERT - He has been running solidly and the speed figures are among the strongest in this group. This gelding could improve with second time Lasix. JACKPOT JOE - Could provide positive profits based on very good recent speed figures with an average of 63. Make a note that this horse runs with second time Lasix today.

Turf Club

Oaklawn - Race #4

#2 BOX OFFICE APPEAL (ML=5/1)
#6 BERRY KNOLL (ML=5/2)
#1 ZES T CAT (ML=8/1)
#4 TOOIE (ML=6/1)


BOX OFFICE APPEAL - This mare is in nice condition, having run a good race on Feb 12th, finishing first. Carrying 5 pounds less this race. Trainer has her in a good spot. BERRY KNOLL - When this jockey and handler work together you have to take a look. Canchari and Brueggemann have been fantastic together. Looking at today's class figure, this thoroughbred is up against an easier bunch than in the last race at Arlington. This mare might as well call Oaklawn home. Don't overlook how she races well over this racing venue. ZES T CAT - This mount could be tough this time around, especially since Thompson rode last time out and now should be acquainted with this one. TOOIE - Ran in the last race against a high class rated field at Oaklawn. The move down in class ranks should suit her well. You'll be generating profits right and left by turning your bankroll onto this rider/conditioner combination. Is ranked totally highest in earnings per race. A powerful effort right here will add to the lifetime bankroll.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 BOOLEANNA (ML=3/1), #3 SHERIDAN'S BLING (ML=9/2), #5 MOTIVARE (ML=6/1),

BOOLEANNA - Tough to put any cash on this mare on the front end. Likes to finish in the money though. This horse ran a mediocre speed rating last out. She shouldn't run much better and will probably get beat today running that rating. SHERIDAN'S BLING - Tough for this closer horse to get up today. Without a hot pace to stir things up, the lone pace is going to make it awfully hard to get the job done. MOTIVARE - Most recent speed fig of 84 may not be legitimate since it was on a track listed as good.

Walker Group

Tampa Bay - Race 6

# 5 PIO'S PASSION 9/2
# 6 CHOSEN HEIR 3/1
# 7 NUESTRA SENOR 7/2

PIO'S PASSION is the best bet in this race. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me back this gelding. CHOSEN HEIR - Downing has a strong win percentage with horses running in dirt route races. He looks very good in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. NUESTRA SENOR - Is difficult not to consider based on Speed Figures which have been formidable - 83 avg - of late. Will most likely go to the front end and should never look back.