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Just FYI , at 5:30am ET it has been pouring rain in Lexington for 3 hours and there is a flood watch for the area. Expect sloppy and potential OFF THE TURF. GL, JAF!

Keeneland Opening Day courtesy of Alec Stuckey

Race 1:

3 – Miss Cobblestone – has the advantage in here if the track comes up sloppy like it supposed to. Her best race was 2 back on the slop at Oaklawn where she closed very nicely under Chris Landeros. Today, she will get the presence of Joel Rosario.

6 – Wasatch – ran a distant second behind Stellar Wind at Laurel last out. All Stellar Wind did last time is with the Santa Ysabel with ease. John Velazquez gets the call for conditioner Graham Motion.

.50 Pick 4

1,3,5,7,8/ 1,7/ 2,5,9/ 7

($15)

Race 2:

3 – Peteizum – has a pace advantage in here. This horse runs good only on the front end, and I only see one horse who can go with him and that is the #6 horse. Peteizum is faster on numbers though. Trainer Ron Moquett “legs up” jockey Paco Lopez.

5 – Paden – takes a drop in class for trainer Andrew Mckeever. He ran a decent second last year in the fall. He gives the mount to James Graham who had a dominate meet at Fair Grounds this past winter.

Race 3:

1 – Sweetgrass – is tough to pass in here at a short number on the morning line. She is a stalker, and there looks like a few speed horses to set her up. I like to see Florent Geroux get the mount coming off a tremendous Fair Grounds meet as well.

7 – White Clover – is 2-1 on the morning line and the second choice. The 2 chalks are tough to get past on in here. She is the play in here if the track comes up sloppy. Four races back, she ran on an off track and she won by 5 and 1/4 lengths. Larry Jones “legs up his go to rider” Kerwin Clark.

Race 4:

5 – Island Fever – well deserves the favorites role in here. She got beat by a length against maiden claiming $40,000 group. This isn’t much more difficult group. Neil Howard gives the mount to Brian Hernandez, Jr once again.

9 – Secret Stash – ran a distant second at Tampa in a maiden special weight. The straight maidens at Tampa are no harder than a Maiden Claiming anywhere else. I love to see Corey Lanerie hop on this filly.

Race 5:

6 – Kathballu – gets the services of Joel Rosario today. Last out, from about the 1/2 mile pole to the wire, she never gained or lost any ground. She should be a factor in the exotics.

7 – Milehigh Butterfly – will be my key to the early pick on opening day.She ran great in the Pochantas and the Alcibiades last fall. She is fresh, and IMO ready to run based on her recent works.

Race 6:

4- Piloting – is 50-1 on the morning line and if it comes off the grass, that will be unlikely. He is the only horse in the field with an off track win. Tom Bush “legs up” Jose Lezcano.

11 – Los Borrachos – always shows up on an off track, but no wins. I think this one has a good shot to round out exotics for Bill Mott and Joel Rosario.

.50 P4

All/ 1,5,9/ 4,10/ 5

($22.50)

Race 7:

6 – First Place – might of needed his first start. He is freshened off a 5+ month layoff. I like to see a 35 bullet drill coming off a layoff. Ben Colebrook calls on Robby Albarado again.

7 – Boone Station – has good off track breeding. He is out of a Malibu Moon mare, who produced a Kentucky derby winner on the off track. Conditioner Kiaran Mclaughlin can get a horse ready to win first time out.

Race 8:

1 – Class Leader – got beat a neck at this condition 2 back at the Fair Grounds going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. The only concern I have for him is if he can run on an off track. James Graham has another live mount today at Keeneland.

5 – Rapscallion – drops in class today. I like the works at Fair Hill on paper coming into this race today. He loves Keeneland, and an off track today. Graham Motion “legs up” John Velazquez again today.

Race 9:

4 – A Lot – is a real nice grass horse for Bill Mott. He is 3 for 5 in the money and 3 for 4 in the money on the grass. Trainer Bill Mott is 23% with second time lasix, and he should only improve off that last effort.

10 – Luck of the Kitten – has never ran a bad race for Wesley Ward. He ran a great second in the Juvenile Turf 5 months ago. Money Mike Smith comes into ride. I don’t think an off track will hurt him.

Race 10:

5 – Moonlit Meteor – has won 3 races in a row under conditioner Tom Amoss’s care. He will be a short price in here and could be a single. James graham gets a “leg up” in here.

7 – All Star Bell – is coming off a win as well at Turfway. He is a stalk the pace type. He can close off some fast fractions or modern fractions. Didiel Osorio gets back aboard. Trainer Bill Stinson is 27% with horses who have won their last race.

GOOD LUCK TODAY

Keeneland Opening Day courtesy of Kevin Cox


Race 1

With the exception of the one wet track race, #3 MISS COBBLESTONE has been fairly disappointing thus far for connections.na' hand into playing the dirt game for a while. Colt didn't really seem to dig it all that much, but now is returned to his preferred surface while also having had the blinkers added in last. Graham was aboard for the lone win, and this one just may surprise at a price. #8 DIVISIDERO had traffic troubles in both starts to date, and is just 3/4's of a length from an unblemished 2 for 2 record. Colt has a huge grass future ahead of him. #6 DANISH DYNAFORMER keeps getting better and better, and it showed in the most recent maiden breaker, when getting up by a head despite being smacked around a bit late. Another one with tremendous upside. OFF TURF: 2-1-3-8-9 BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 LUCK OF THE KITTEN will be vastly overbet, as many exiting Breeders' Cup races are, and Ward, 23% on the norm, is a paltry 1-25 ( 4% ) when taking blinkers off of turf routers for the first time.


Race 10

#5 MOONLIT METEOR completes his personal 4 bagger despite the class hike today, in this nondescript finale. #6 CHUCK'S TURN fared well in the past when racing 2nd off the long L/O, and drops to a career low today. Geroux was aboard for the last win. Historically speaking, the #7 ALL STAR BELL is just as good on the dirt as the recent synthetic form, and is 2 for 6 at the distance. In reality, this is a nice race to skip.

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Friday, April 3, 2015



What to Watch for Today: Keeneland’s first natural dirt Spring Meet since 2006 raises its curtain today with a 10-race card. The opening day feature will be the G3 $100,000 Transylvania Stakes for 3-year-old turfers and the late pick four boasts a $300,000-guaranteed pool.


Weather: Mother Nature, work with us here. Strong thunderstorms overnight and into opening day look almost a certainty. Keep an eye on updated conditions, turf racing availability and wind conditions. The good news, Saturday is supposed to look better.



Keeneland Handicapping 101: Here we go race-by-race to help you unearth the trends. Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (All Weather Stats (Polytrack) data) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

Maiden special weight routers battle on the main track in Race 1 at 1-1/16 miles. Regardless of surface, 61 of the 157 MSWs for the 3YOs during Keeneland Spring Meets since Spring 2007 have been won by Gulfstream-prepped runners. The rest have been accounted by 29 first-time starters and 20 Fair Grounds invaders. When looking at just the 42 main-track routes like this one, it’s 22 Gulfstream-7 Fair Grounds-2 firsters. Expect Fine Instincts to be very logical for a Todd Pletcher barn that captured 1 of the 2 dirt route elder MSWs at the 2014 Fall Meet. Improv seems a worthy GP raider for a Rusty Arnold barn that does well with 3YO MSWs at Keeneland. Miss Cobblestone should be running late for a Kenny McPeek barn that excels with maiden routers during the Keeneland Spring and Fall Meets.

Race 2 is a starter allowance to kick off the pick 4. Get used to these races more and more as we saw no less than 11 carded during the 2014 Fall Meet, about twice the normal outlay for a Keeneland meet of starter allowances. Starters are no place to look for prices. Of the 47 run during Spring Meets dating back to 2007, only 4 winners were above 6-1 odds and nothing over 11-1. Do note trainer Andrew McKeever owns 2 of the biggest starter allowance scores during that span (6-1 and 11-1) and fires with Paden, a very good second here last Fall on the dirt. McKeever’s 22 wins at Keeneland since Fall 2006 include 8 with James Graham in the saddle. On the flipside, trainer Ron Moquett (Peteizum) has just 1 Spring Meet win on his ledger since ’07. He’s coming off a strong Oaklawn meet, and it’s curious to see what he has left to fire.

Allowance 3YO fillies sprint 7 furlongs in Races 3 and 5 in split divisions. Only 2 of 26 races at 7 furlongs were won by the half-mile leader during the Fall’s initial dirt foray. 14 of those winners were cutting back in distance, a tactic most of this Race 3 field will employ. Trainer Vicki Oliver won first-level main-track Spring Meet allowances in 2010, 2012 and 2014 and contends in Race 3 with Hone In. Pedigree players in Race 3 note Flexible Ethics is a son of Harlan’s Holiday, whose offspring won a meet-best 4 races (all sprints) with the dirt return in Fall 2014 – including this one’s debut romp. Flexible Ethics is the only dirt starter on the card sired by Harlan’s Holiday on opening day. As for the Race 5 division, cut-back performer Milehigh Butterfly makes her first start since a good fourth in the G1 Alcibiades over this dirt surface in October. Of trainer Mark Casse’s 11-win blitz at the 2014 Keeneland Spring Meet, only 1 of those winners came directly off a prep at Oaklawn, so tread realistically with Sweet Corinna.

Race 4 is for maiden claiming sprinters at 6-1/2 furlongs on the dirt. Give some extra love to horses with a local work at Keeneland. Since 2007, 75% of Spring Meet MCL sprint winners had worked most recently at Keeneland, and 50% the MCL sprints at the Fall Meet were Keeneland workers, too. While the Fall total doesn’t sound significant, consider that in all other dirt categories, only 31% of the winners had Keeneland works. It’s paid for these lower-end, inexperienced horses to have a trip over the surface. Black Butterfly doesn’t look like much on paper, but he’s locally drilled. This will be a good angle during the meet.

To the turf we go in Race 6 for the first time at the meet (weather permitting). Spring Meet turf miles at Keeneland are havens for horses who have been off for the winter, and they must be respected – namely Idiosyncratic, Take This, Rhythm Blues and Woodfield Springs. Consider that 13 of the last 25 Keeneland Spring Meet turf miles have been won by horses who had not started during their current calendar year. Of the rest, clearly you look to the Gulfstream-prepped runners who own 37 of the Spring Meet turf mile wins here since 2007. If you like melting the logic, consider Awesome Sky and Melville, both freshened (since January) while coming in from Gulfstream. Melville’s jockey Julien Leparoux has won 12 Spring turf miles during that span, 7 more than any other rider. Posts 1-5 have accounted for 56% of the turf mile wins at Keeneland with capacity fields of 12 (which represents only 41% of the field). There are MANY ways to go here.

Race 7 is for the 3YO maiden special weight sprinters at 6 furlongs. First-time starters traditionally hold their ground very well in these spots, winning 11 of the 30 such Spring offerings since ’07 (Gulfstream shippers 9x, no other circuit more than 2). Only 1 Fair Grounds prepper has won a 3YO MSW at 6F during that span, and that came in 2009, so don’t assume How About Him has to win this race coming off the fourth behind the impressive Yockey’s Warrior. The only trainer in this race to win a Spring Meet race with a first-time starter in our database is Kiaran McLaughlin, who sends out Boone Station in search of a third Spring debut winner since ’07.

Veteran allowance campaigners route 1-1/16 miles in Race 8. Note that Races 1 and 8 are the only dirt routes on the card. About 30 percent of the Fall Meet races on dirt at this trip were won by horses coming out of sprint preps, so don’t feel as though it’s a disqualifier if you like one stretching out like A.P. Indian off the sharp comeback sprint. Certainly the percentages play to route preppers, but 30% in the minority is nothing to sneeze at. Rapscalliion aims for a third straight Keeneland meet victory (’14 Spring win on Polytrack, ’14 Fall win on sloppy dirt) for a Graham Motion barn that does very well with these deeper allowance conditions at Kee. We haven’t had a third-level allowance like this in Spring since 2007, so welcome back.

Bottom-level $10,000 claiming sprinters wrap the opening day card in Race 10. Turfway Park preppers won 47% of such races during the Polytrack era, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out on dirt. It’s notable that Kentucky Downs runners were superb in this role in the Fall on dirt and were exiting turf preps. Trainer Tom Amoss accounted for $10k CLM Spring wins in 2009, 2010 and 2014 and looks to have a stout favorite in Moonlit Meteor, a winner of 3 straight as short odds. There are no less than 5 different Turfway preppers exiting wins or narrow seconds to challenge.

Feature Race Play, courtesy of the Horseplayernow.com BUZZ Report:

Start your handicapping for the Race 9 G3 $100,000 Transylvania Stakes by examining the invaders from Gulfstream Park. That’s because 5 of the last 6 winners of this race, regardless of the surface it was held over, had exited GP preps. That makes for 6 of the 13 entries in this race and makes a difficult handicapping chore more manageable.

Removing recent Gulfstream maiden breakers taking big class hikes, the quartet from Florida most under the microscope should be A Lot, Eh Cumpari, Divisidero and Night Prowler. All have a level of stakes accomplishment and are well-spotted in the Transylvania. Horses who wintered at Payson Park training center took this race in 2007, 2009 and 2010, including Bill Mott trainees Stormalory and Marcavelly. The Hall of Famer takes a similar path with A Lot, who figures very prominent. Meanwhile, Eh Cumpari makes a rider change to Robby Albarado, who has won 2 of the last 3 editions of the Transylvania aboard Silver Max and Medal Count, and also won this race in 2008.

The X-factor will be speedball Luck of the Kitten, absent since being nailed on the wire by stablemate Hootenanny in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in October. While it’s a big leap off such a layoff, this race was won in 2007 and 2010 by horses making their seasonal debuts – Marcavelly for Mott and Air Support for Shug McGaughey. So, a good horse and horseman can pull it off.

I like A Lot a lot, and will be playing him in the exotics with Luck of the Kitten, Eh Cumpari and Night Prowler. Let’s hope we can keep this race on the grass. Otherwise, all bets are off.

Keeneland courtesy of DanonymousRacing

Race Analysis & Selections

Race 1: The meet kicks off with a 58,000 dollar Maiden race for 3 year old Fillies. This race is pretty open however you have to give the edge to Todd Pletcher and Javier Castellano with the #4 Fine Instincts. Pltcher is 29% in second route races. The #1 Dickinson also has a chance, but after losing the rider at the break in the last start we didn’t get to see the stretch out, which is why I will take a wait and see approach on this one. Also if the track is wet, which it looks like it will be you have to give Improv a look for Arnold and Leparoux. Mark out the last effort as she lost all chance at the start. Also Motion and John Velazquez have one to watch on an off track as well as Motion being 27% first time Lasix . 4-1-5-6





Race 2: This race is a 7500 ALW for four year olds and upward. Again several ways you could go in here, but I landed on #1 Hey Cuz off the recent effort at Turfway where he sat off and closed to win by 2 lengths. The #3 Peteizum seems to be the class and should be given a look coming back 2nd start off a decent layoff. The #5 Paden comes in today off a long layoff with 2 bullet works in the last month over the Keeneland course. Also the #7 More than Noble comes back in a little under a week where he finished 3rd beaten 8 lengths. 1-3-5-7





Race 3: In this race I like the #7 White Clover on top. Larry Jones is 22% going route to sprint and this horse was up against it last time against I’m A Chatterbox. Also the # 1 Sweetgrass could have a shot although watch and see how Improv does in Race 1 as those 2 went head to head a few back. The #6 Hone In has been fairly consistent lately and deserves a look. The #4 Tasseography ran decent here in the fall and could add some value in exotics. 7-1-6-4





Race 4: This maiden claiming event looks to be pretty formful in my opinion. I will take the #5 on top Island Fever. I also like the #7 Brush up for a little value having a 3rd place finish so far in 2015. Underneath I like the #2 Prospector d’ORO for Bret Calhoun and the #9 Secret Stash for Corey Lanerie and Vicky Oliver. 5-7-2-9





Race 5: In this race I like the #3 Streetheart on top based on the better competition, however this horse has been on the shelf since NOV. Also the #1 Thunder Bay looks like she fits based on her first 2 efforts at Tampa. Also the #6 Kathballu looks to improve after finishing 3rd vs similar last time out. The #7 Milehigh Butterfly also should be given a look after finishing 4th in the Alcibiades in the fall here. 1-3-6-7





Race 6: This turf allowance could be taken off because of weather, however if it stays on I like #3 Awesome Sky on top. Also the #1 Idiosyncratic looks tough in this spot with Chad Brown being 29% off the layoff. The #11 Los Borachos could have a shot if Joel Rosario can work out a trip from the outside post. Also for some value underneath I like the #5 Take This coming off the Maiden score way back in June. 3-1-11-5





Race 7: This maiden race offers a lot of firsters which could mean some good prices. On top I landed on the #6 First Place who led here in the fall until the end, but that was going 7 furlongs. Also look at the #4 Wild and Unbridled a firster with some nice works and a trainerthat hits at 23% with firsters. The #2 also fits with the nice work and being by congrats should like the sprinting distance. I would also give the #7 Boone Station a look. 6-4-2-9





Race 8: This is a OC 80,000 non winners of 3. In here I like the #5 Rapscallion on top with the class drop and the sharp work recently at Fair hill. Also the #7 Transparent should be giving a look as well as the #6 A.P Indian. The #1 Class Leader also should be given a look coming out of the Mineshaft at FG in February. 5-7-6-1





Race 9: The G3 Transylvania I like the # 10 on top Luck of the Kitten. The Ramsey’s are no strangers to the winner circle at Keeneland and they have a top rider in Mike Smith in the saddle. Also the #3 Eh cumpari and the #9 Night Prowler should be given a look coming out of the Palm Beach. Also the #4 A Lot fits and keeps John Velazquez. 10-3-9-4



Race 10: The finale on day one of the meet is a 10,000 claimer at 6 furlongs. Looks to me like the #5 Moonlit Meteor should handle this group and has put together 3 consecutive good races. ALSO LOOK AT THE #3 Kowboy Kody and the #6 Chucks Turn . Also the #7 All star Bell deserves a look and if you are playing the super high 5 I would throw in the #2 Da Don and the#4 Gibson’s Bullet. 5-3-6-7-2-4

Thanks Joe for posting these.