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Kentucky Derby Past Performances:

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Anthony Stabile

OCHO OCHO OCHO (5-3-0-1)

TRAINER: Jim Cassidy (0 for 2)
JOCKEY: Elvis Trujillo (0 for 1)

RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.

AS A JUVENILE: He made three starts in the span of 43 days and won them all. After breaking his maiden he took the off the turf Juvenile Turf Stakes at Santa Anita on Breeders’ Cup weekend before shipping to Delta Downs to win the G3 Delta Jackpot by a desperate nose from outside post 10.

THIS YEAR: In his first start in over three months, he basically lost all chance when he was bothered coming out of the gate and through the first turn of the G2 San Felipe. He got to the top in the G1 Blue Grass last out but offered little resistance when Carpe Diem confronted him on the turn and eventually finished third.

CARPE DIEM (5-4-1-0)

TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 40)
JOCKEY: John Velazquez (1 for 16)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace

AS A JUVENILE: Carpe Diem won the first two starts of his career impressively, including the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland by daylight before running second in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after an awkward journey.

THIS YEAR: He’s a perfect two for two, taking the G2 Tampa Bay Derby in his first start off of a four month layoff before an easy tally G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland.

MATERIALITY (3-3-0-0)

TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 40)
JOCKEY: Javier Castellano (0 for 8)

RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.

AS A JUVENILE: He didn’t race. Therefore, he will try to become the first horse to win the Derby without a start as a juvenile since Apollo in 1882.

THIS YEAR: After breaking his maiden in the slop in his debut, Materiality rolled home to an easy score in the Islamorada then dug in to hold off the more seasoned Upstart in an exciting renewal of the G1 Florida Derby.

TENCENDUR (5-1-1-1)

TRAINER: George Weaver (Debut)
JOCKEY: Manny Franco (Debut)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace

AS A JUVENILE: He debuted going 1 mile and 70 yards over a course labeled good and finished third over the inner dirt at Aqueduct.

THIS YEAR: Broke his maiden against New York breds in the mud before finishing third to Far From Over, the same horse who won his debut race, in the G3 Withers. Blinkers were added and the money poured in when he finished fifth in the G3 Gotham but he woke up last out in the G1 Wood Memorial when he finished a solid second to Frosted.

DANZIG MOON (5-1-2-0)

TRAINER: Mark Casse (0 for 2)
JOCKEY: Julien Leparoux (0 for 7)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace

AS A JUVENILE: A fourth place finish in his debut sprinting was followed up by a second place finish going a mile after he broke a bit slowly and a three month layoff.

THIS YEAR: An enthusiastic maiden tally off the bench at Gulfstream was followed by a non-descript fourth behind Carpe Diem in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. He tried Carpe Diem again in the G1 Blue Grass last out and finished up a bit stronger to get place money.

MUBTAAHIJ (7-4-1-0)

TRAINER: Mike de Kock (Debut)
JOCKEY: Christophe Soumillon (Debut)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace.

AS A JUVENILE: After starting his career with a pair of off-the-board turf tries in England, Mubtaahij shipped to the U.A.E. and switched to dirt. He broke his maiden on New Year’s Eve against three and four-year-olds in his dirt debut.

THIS YEAR: He’s won three of four this year, including the Al Bastikaya and G2 U.A.E Derby going 1 3/16 miles. In the U.A.E. Derby, he took plenty of kickback behind a wall of speed horses early on before powering away to a daylight score while geared down through the final stages.

EL KABEIR (9-4-2-2)

TRAINER: John Terranova, III (0 for 1)
JOCKEY: Calvin Borel (3 for 12)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace.

AS A JUVENILE: He broke his maiden impressively on closing weekend at Saratoga in his second start, finished fourth in the G1 Champagne, second in the G2 Nashua then closed out his season with a gate-to-wire score in the G2 KJC at Churchill in his only start under Borel.

THIS YEAR: Easily won the G3 Jerome and G3 Gotham but suffered a pair of defeats in the G3 Withers as the 1-2 favorite and last out in the G1 Wood Memorial. He’s evolved a bit from a front running type to a bit of a closer. C.C. Lopez subbed for Lopez in the Jerome and kept the mount until this.

DORTMUND (6-6-0-0)

TRAINER: Bob Baffert (3 for 24)
JOCKEY: Martin Garcia (0 for 3)

RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.

AS A JUVENILE: Dortmund made three starts at three different racetracks in the final two months of 2014 and won them all from just off the pace, including an allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs that was sandwiched between a maiden tally at Santa Anita and a gritty tally in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity.

THIS YEAR: He’s managed to run his record to a perfect six for six with three more graded stakes score this season. He alternated on the lead with Firing Line in the G3 Robert Lewis before re-rallying along the rail to win then took the G2 San Felipe and G1 Santa Anita Derby in gate-to-wire fashion.

BOLO (5-2-0-2)

TRAINER: Carla Gaines (0 for 1)
JOCKEY: Rafael Bejarano (0 for 9)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace.

AS A JUVENILE: He made three starts, all on the turf. A fifth place finish in his debut was followed by a pair of dominant scores against maidens and in the Eddie Logan. THIS YEAR: Coming off of a 10 week layoff, Bolo finished third in the San Felipe, his dirt debut, after taking a serious run at Dortmund on the far turn and losing second in the final strides. He raced wide last out and appeared to be spinning his wheels through the stretch but did manage to get the show dough in the G1 Santa Anita Derby.

FIRING LINE (5-2-3-0)

TRAINER: Simon Callaghan (Debut)
JOCKEY: Gary Stevens (3 for 20)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace

AS A JUVENILE: Finished second in his debut after breaking slowly at Santa Anita before breaking his maiden over the synthetic surface at Del Mar. He closed out his season with a gutsy runner-up finish to the undefeated Dortmund in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity after alternating on the lead through furious early fractions

THIS YEAR: It began as last year ended, with a heartbreaking defeat at the hands of Dortmund in the G3 Robert Lewis, a race in which he opened up a length on Dortmund in the stretch before Dortmund re-rallied along the rail to nail him. Firing Line followed that up with a dominant score in the G3 Sunland Derby last out.

STANFORD (5-2-1-0)

TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 40)
JOCKEY: Undecided

RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.na (4 for 47)
JOCKEY: Ramon Vazquez (Debut)

RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.

AS A JUVENILE: He ran a race-high eight times in 2014. A debut maiden win at Churchill was followed by a campaign in which he ran in seven consecutive graded stakes at six different racetracks. He was second in the G3 Sanford, G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Delta jackpot, where he missed by a nose and third by a head in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity behind Dortmund and Firing Line

THIS YEAR: Looked home free in the Smarty Jones before veering out through the stretch to wind up third, tired in deep stretch after setting the pace when third in the G3 Southwest and was a well beaten third in the G1 Arkansas Derby last out behind stablemate American Pharoah.


AMERICAN PHAROAH (5-4-0-0)

TRAINER: Bob Baffert (3 for 24)
JOCKEY: Victor Espinoza (2 for 6)

RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.

AS A JUVENILE: After losing his debut on the synthetic surface at Del Mar, the blinkers came off at he won two consecutive G1 races, the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner at Santa Anita. He was scratched the week of the Breeders’ Cup with a foot injury.

THIS YEAR: A pair of runaway scores at Oaklawn in the G2 rebel and G1 Arkansas Derby, a race in which he showed some ability to rate for the first time in his career.

UPSTART (7-3-3-1)

TRAINER: Rick Violette, Jr. (0 for 2)
JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz (0 for 1)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace

AS A JUVENILE: After starting his career with a pair of wins just nine days apart against New York breds at Saratoga, Upstart finished a solid second in the G1 Champagne before a third place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in a race where he confronted a hot early pace a bit too soon.

THIS YEAR: Upstart made his presence felt immediately with a powerful score in the G3 Holy Bull. A workmanlike effort followed when he won the G2 Fountain of Youth where he was controversially disqualified from the win and placed second. Last out, he couldn’t get by the undefeated Materiality through the stretch of the G1 Florida Derby but did appear to be interfered with in the stretch. The stewards took no action.

FAR RIGHT (9-3-3-2)

TRAINER: Ron Moquett (Debut)
JOCKEY: Mike Smith (1 for 20)

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from far back.

AS A JUVENILE: Broke his maiden in his third start/first for Moquett at Churchill then finished third in the Street Sense and in the G3 Delta Jackpot, a race in which he might have been best.

THIS YEAR: A rider change to Mike Smith resulted in a pair of exciting come from behind scores in the Smarty Jones and G3 Southwest, two races in which Smith made his move along the inside. Smith kept something in the tank when he guided him to a second place finish in the G1 Arkansas Derby when there was no catching American Pharoah.

AE

FRAMMETO (7-1-1-1) - Will enter as AE (Also Eligible)

TRAINER: Nick Zito (2 for 25)
JOCKEY: Undecided

RUNNING STYLE: Comes from far back.

AS A JUVENILE: Well-regarded since his fourth place debut, Frammento broke his maiden in his two turn debut at Keeneland in his second start but was winless in two starts after that.

THIS YEAR: After starting the year with a poor effort in the G2 Holy Bull, the addition of blinkers seemed to have helped, as evident by a third place finish in the G2 Fountain of Youth when he was the only one running at the end and his fourth place finish along the inside in the G1 Blue Grass last out.

No info on Tale of Verve

WIZARD'S 2015 KENTUCKY DERBY

1st Selection #18 AMERICAN PHAROAH 5-2
2nd Selection # 8 DORTMUND 3-1
3rd Selection #15 FROSTED 15-1
4th Selection # 6 MUBTAAHIJ (IRE) 20-1

Wagering Strategy

I am not going to suggest making a win bet on American Pharoah as the 5-2 morning line favorite. I will instead attack the Exactas and Trifecta's and one superfecta play if you want to take a shot for a potential score.


$2 Exactas (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over ALL = $38
$20 Exacta (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over (8) DORTMUND, reverse for $10
$8 Exactas (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over (6) MUBTAAHIJ, (10) FIRING LINE, & (15) FROSTED, reverse each for $2

Total: $98

TRIFECTAS:

Ticket 1: BOX: 6-8-10-15-18 = $30 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 2: 8-18 over 6-8-10-15-18 over 2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10-12-14-15-18-19 = $44 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 3: 18 over 6-8-10-15 over ALL = $36 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 4: 18 over 6-8-10-15 over 2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10-12-14-15-19 = $22 for a $0.50 wager

Total Trifectas = $132

Superfecta:

18 over 6-8-15 over 6-8-10-15 over 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-12-14-15-19-20 = $108 for a $1 wager

Frammento is in the Derby due to Stanford scratching.

Frammento will break from the deepest spot in 20.

Last year I gave out the winner of California Chrome --- https://freaksforum.com/ubbthreads.php/topics/260853/Kentucky_Derby#Post260853

I admit this year I haven't been too excited about the prep races and really haven't posted a lot of information as I have in years past. I think because there is such a total lack of posts by others and no real involvement, it's like talking to myself.

For those that are interested and have followed along over the years of the forum, I do pretty well with the horses and have brought home a lot of money for those that tail along over the years.

I plan on doing that again with the Derby. The Derby is a tough race to handicap because you have horses from such a wide dynamic of race tracks and they aren't the same at all. There's a lot of hype with American Pharaoh and Dortmund and the possibility of them finishing 1-2 for Baffert. While that would be a trainers dream scenario and Bob almost did it before finishing 1st and 3rd, I don't forsee the situation happening on Saturday. I do believe one of these horses will win but it will be Dortmund and not American Pharoah.

It's uncanny how last year I came up with California Chrome who followed the path of Sunday Silence 25 years prior and if you remember last year I was all over California Chrome early on and wasn't a band wagoner as most were. Dortmund has really impressed me in his races, it's not the fact that he is undefeated, it's how he wins. It's an honest effort each time out.

I remember watching the Bob Lewis Stakes with him and Firing Line. After that race, I was certain he would be the Derby favorite and the one to beat. Oh so you missed that race? Click the link ---- and watch this race, you will be amazed at the finish......... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7S_1YfYL3LM

I am not going to go in depth into my reasoning for my pick, just going to keep it short.

1. Dortmund
2. Materiality
3. Firing Line
4. American Pharoah

Carpe Diem and Bolo may be in the mix as well.

I am recommending a W/P wager on Dortmund

You can use the others in exactas with Dortmund on top.

Scott Hazelton - TVG

#18 American Pharoah
#10 Firing Line
#5 Danzig Moon

This renewal of the Kentucky Derby is being built up to epic proportions. Many consider this to be one of the deepest groups of 3-year-old talent this race has ever seen. A majority of those same opinions are looking to the top of this talent pool and already labeling a singular horse as the next Seattle Slew. I can agree with the first thought, but throwing around Seattle Slew's name with American Pharoah is getting ahead of ourselves as Slew was a horse who's impact went far beyond the First Saturday in May.

But regardless of your opinion on the historical comparisons, American Pharoah is the horse to beat in Derby 141. He is coming in to this race as good as any horse that I have seen on many different levels. His wins this season in Arkansas have been smooth and effortless. Combine that with his final workout before the Derby that has many of us in complete awe, and Pharoah has checked all of the boxes that you want when seeing a horse prepare for the biggest race of their early career. There was one hurdle that he had to clear that was completely out of his control and that was post position. Once pill number eighteen was pulled along side his name, American Pharoah now has clear sailing for a clear trip in a race where trip is everything amongst nineteen foes.

I came in a big believer in Carpe Diem, and I still feel he is a very good horse and at the level of American Pharoah, but once he was drawn to the far inside in post two and sandwiched between Ocho Ocho Ocho and Materiality, two horses with as much early speed, Carpe Diem's path just became far too foggy for me to feel confident in a win. That is too much adversity to overcome for a horse that has experienced no adversity.

As for my underneath plays, Firing Line is a tremendous physical specimen. He's been a cool customer in his schooling in the paddock and he has the guidance of one of the greats in Derby lore, Gary Stevens. Firing Line brings thoughts of Hard Spun to me as a horse that can definitely hang around for a piece of the Derby trifecta and it doesn't hurt that he is coming into this race as the freshest horse.

Danzig Moon is another standout physically. He is a 3-year-old who has not reached his ceiling just yet and his finish in the Blue Grass at Keeneland is what leads me to believe he will be a major player as they pass the stands a second time. His trainer, Mark Casse, is one of the best in the business with young horses and has said that Danzig Moon's attitude has been just where it needs to be, aggressive, when he is sitting on a big race.

TimeformUS - Justin Finch

How we’ll bet the race:

• Our win bet at morning line odds is Frosted.

• In multi-race wagers, we will use three horses: Dortmund, Frosted, and
Upstart.

• We will use Dortmund and Frosted to anchor our trifectas, requiring at least
one of them to be in the trifecta for us to hit it.

• Secondary contenders will be rotated completely through the trifecta.

• Here are the horses we’ll use underneath-only in our trifectas and
superfectas:

Tencendur, Danzig Moon, Carpe Diem, El Kabeir, International Star and Far
Right.

As expected, given a 20-horse field that is knee-deep in fast young horses, the
TimeformUS Pace Projector is projecting a fast pace. #8 Dortmund is shown on a clear
early lead. #17 Mr. Z is alone in second place. #9 Bolo, #1 Ocho Ocho Ocho, and #10
Firing Line are side by side behind him. They are followed by #2 Carpe Diem and #18
American Pharoah.

It is worth pointing out that Bob Baffert trains two of the frontrunner/presser types
mentioned above (American Pharoah and Dortmund), and Ahmed Zayat owns two of
them (Dortmund and Mr Z, as well as the closer El Kabeir). So, while a speed duel could
well materialize, and while there are limits to the kind of restraint jockeys can put their
mounts under while simultaneously working to obtain good positions into the first turn, a
self-protective dose of cynicism is probably in order. We would be quite surprised to see
Mr Z ridden in a way that harms Dortmund’s chances, and we don’t fancy the chances
that the riders of both Dortmund and American Pharoah will exit the gate with designs on
the early lead. Indeed, one could take this sort of thinking further by pointing out other
connections and relationships and the like. And some are doing just that. But at some
point we would like to stop talking about the humans and start talking about the horses–if
for no other reason than that in this sport, the horses, as a rule, are quite a bit more
interesting than the humans.

Ocho Ocho Ocho (50-1): He drew a tough post. He’s too slow on our speed figures. He
could well be compromised by a fast pace. He hasn’t been training in the best fashion.
He is a toss all the way out of the superfecta for us.

Carpe Diem (8-1): One of four trained by Todd Pletcher, who is not at his best at
Churchill Downs (76 rating), Carpe Diem’s only disappointing effort was in the BC
Juvenile, and even that resulted in a second-place finish to a freaking Texas Red. Carpe
Diem’s only disappointing effort was in the BC Juvenile, and even that resulted in a
second-place finish to a freaking Texas Red. Carpe Diem ran a speed figure top of 94 as
a two-year-old. His two-prep campaign as a three-year-old resulted in two 103s, which
leaves him well-shy of the fastest horses in here. A very professional racehorse,
tractable in a way that often leads to good trips, he drew a tricky post and will need a
heady ride from Velazquez, who chose Carpe Diem over Materiality (make of that what
you will, given the old saying about the best job at any racetrack: bookmaker in the
jockeys’ room). Ran on the best part of the racetrack in the Blue Grass, which was not
among the strongest preps (Race Rating of 101). We like his breeding for the extra
distance. This colt is a contender, but only a borderline one to us, and his morning line
odds are a little stingy. We like others more, and we’re not using him on top in our bets
on Saturday.

Materiality (12-1): Undefeated Pletcher colt makes the fourth start of his career,
entering this race with a speed figure pattern of 76 91 107. One does not see this often.
It bespeaks major league talent. He held off a sustained bid from Upstart in the Florida
Derby. He has strong breeding for the distance. If he has any more short-term
improvement in him, his opponents are in a lot of trouble. On the negative side: Again,
Pletcher has not been at his best at Churchill Downs, and Pletcher horses shipping from
Florida are doubly suspect at Churchill. In addition, Materiality was unraced at two. This
is the much-discussed “Curse of Apollo.” Not since Apollo in 1882 has a horse who was
unraced at age two gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. We care not a whit about this
specific stat or about most historical Derby stats. With most stats of this sort, the curse is
not on the horses. Rather, it is on the readers, who are subjected to a Curse of
Prometheus and forced to have their livers pecked out by all these negative stats, most
of which arise out of the ashes of randomness and survive due to nothing more than
pure volume. There are simply not enough Derbies run to explode all the asinine stats as
quickly as they deserve to explode. But Materiality is a little light on experience, and that
does raise questions about his ability to handle what is about to be thrown at him.
Nonetheless, he is a contender.

Tencendur (30-1): He was progressing nicely enough, working his way into the low 90s
while splitting the field in Grade 3s, and then he finally saw a dry track in the Wood
Memorial and he exploded to a 102. Moreover, he did so while not receiving the easiest
of trips. Being sworn enemies of promiscuous declarations about cause and effect, we
are not about to attribute the improvement to the dry racetrack, but we aren’t about to
rule that out, either. In any event, Tencendur has questionable breeding for the 10
furlongs and he has yet to take his game outside of New York, but that last number
makes him a player in here for a solid trainer who gets an 84 rating with circuitswitchers.
The Wood received a TimeformUS Race Rating of 104, stamping it as one of
the strongest of the Derby Preps. At a big price, Tencendur will remain in our exotic mix,
albeit only for the lower holes.

Danzig Moon (30-1): Still eligible for a nw2, he exploded to a 15-point new top while no
match for Carpe Diem in the Blue Grass. Still, that new top was only a 98, and he
earned it while racing over the best part of the racetrack that day at Keeneland. He has
reportedly been thriving at Churchill Downs, and his running style would be flattered by a
fast pace. He is an improving colt who will be a huge price and we will keep him in the
mix while limiting him to the bottom of trifectas and superfectas.

Mubtaahij (20-1): This Irish-bred colt generated a lot of enthusiasm with his
performance in the Group 2 United Arab Emirates Derby, and one look (if you can limit
yourself to only one look) at the videotape of that race is all one needs to understand
why. Visually, it was an impressive performance. Yes, he received a perfect trip. But the
sight of this colt gliding along, biding his time on the rail while brimming with energy, and
then being let loose ever so gently–let loose to lay waste to his hopelessly overmatched
opponents–it is rather hard to get out of one’s head. Mubtaahij is in the care of a worldclass
trainer who does not send horses to the United States unless he means business.
This colt has twice won at the Preakness distance of a mile and 3/16. He has beaten
older horses. He has handled a Dubai dirt track that has been compared to Churchill
Downs. He gives every indication that he wants to run every yard of the Derby distance.
Yes, he will be racing without Lasix, but we don’t care about that. Whatever our faults, a
conceit that we should be training Michael de Kock’s horses for him does not number
among them. There is quite a bit to like about this colt, but we find it substantially
outweighed by what we don’t like: Clearing the hurdles from Dubai to Louisville can take
a toll. Landing in Louisville in 2015, to take on THIS group of American horses, is
unfortunate timing. And, most important, we don’t think Mubtaahij is fast enough to beat
the best of his opponents today. We just finished fine-tuning our speed figure scale to
ensure its continued compatibility with Timeform London’s overseas figures. We took a
particularly close look at Dubai, where the samples are relatively small and every
additional piece of evidence counts. We adjusted our scale based on the newest
evidence. And we concluded that Mubtaahij’s UAE Derby is 12 points (just over nine
lengths at today’s distance) slower than Dortmund’s SA Derby, seven points slower than
Firing Line’s Sunland Derby, and nine points slower than American Pharoah’s Arkansas
Derby. To us, asking Mubtaahij to make up this gap on his opponents’ home continent is
asking too much. Way too much. And if he does make up the gap and win this race?
Well, we should all feel fortunate, even as we’re tearing up tickets, because it would
mean we got to witness a performance for the ages.

El Kabeir (30-1): In his Kentucky Derby Prep trip notes available exclusively in our
Kentucky Derby Package, our colleague Mike Beer called El Kabeir’s Wood effort “a
useful prep,” and we agree. El Kabeir had already secured a spot in the Kentucky Derby,
and his Wood performance seemed faintly odd in the way that performances so often
seem faintly odd when one of the performers has a different goal than the other
performers. El Kabeir had been banging away without a break since the summer of
2014, and our suspicion is that his connections wanted to avoid having another hard
race a month before the Derby. If so, that mission was accomplished. Accomplishing the
next mission, however, will entail a more ambitious approach. And on our data, El Kabeir
is not yet fast enough to win this stacked-deck of a Kentucky Derby. Combine this with
the fact that he is relatively heavily raced and has a flat pattern of speed figures and you
get a horse who to our mind has a low ceiling on his near-term potential improvement.
We will confine El Kabeir to the bottom of exotics.

Dortmund (3-1): This physically imposing colt is a racehorse through and through. 6 for
6 lifetime, he has won on the lead and from behind. He has won a Santa Anita sprint, a
Churchill Downs one-turn mile, a Los Alamitos route, and a Santa Anita route. He has
won when he looked beaten. He has won in four shoes and three. He has run the fastest
TimeformUS Speed Figure of any horse in this field. He has also run the second-fastest
TimeformUS Speed Figure of any horse in this field. Sired by Big Brown, who himself
won the Derby and did so in chillingly impressive fashion, and trained by Bob Baffert,
who has won this race three times and could easily have won it a couple more times,
Dortmund’s qualifications to win this race are unmatched in this field. Our biggest
concern here, by far, is the pace. He has won his last three races on or near the early
lead, and the early lead may be a treacherous place to be in this Derby. As much as we
love the quality of the field assembled for this race, we are not yet prepared to compare
any of these horses to Seattle Slew (watch his Derby on Youtube). Winning the
Kentucky Derby in the face of a punitive pace is a feat worthy of only the very best. Our
hope is that Dortmund will revert to rating tactics today.

Bolo (30-1): We were ceaselessly impressed with him on the grass. The visual
impression we got from his turf races was that he would become a champion on grass.
Well, he has made the transition to dirt and improved on his speed figures in the
process. That is no small feat. There is a sort of physical law at work in horse racing that
works against horses who seem capable of becoming exceptional on multiple surfaces.
Flying too close to the sun seldom ends well. There are so many subtleties that thwart
horses in the attempt. In Bolo’s case, he is not yet exceptional on either surface.
Winning a graded stake would be a start. But he is a genuine talent. He put a brief scare
into Dortmund in the San Felipe, earning a figure of 102 despite a difficult trip. Then he
jumped to a 105 while Dortmund dusted him with his own 112. Bolo remains lightly
raced. He has a pattern of speed figures that it would be hard to improve upon. But,
speed figures notwithstanding, visually, we like him more on grass than we do on dirt,
and the 2015 Kentucky Derby does not strike us as a race that is open to being won by a
horse who is running on only his second-best surface. Be that as it may, given his 30-1
ML odds, his talent, his first-rate trainer, and his potent distance breeding, we consider
Bolo a must-use in our bets.

Firing Line (12-1): Our only real knock on him is that his breeding for this distance is
questionable. He’s fast (top TimeformUS Speed Figure of 110). He has a nice pattern of
figures. He has twice gone toe to toe with Dortmund and given a great account of
himself. He can be rated. He has reportedly looked splendid in the mornings. He has a
rider, Gary Stevens, who is as smart as riders get. His trainer, Simon Callaghan, is not
our favorite trainer for all types of situations, but he has handled this horse expertly.
Firing Line drew a good post and is a strong contender.

Stanford (30-1): Off his best effort he is seven points slower than Ocho Ocho Ocho.
That is not encouraging. He benefited from soft paces (note pace figures and race
fractions color-coded in blue) in his last two starts. He has not been seen in the best
prep races. He was pummelled by Materiality in the Islamorada at Gulfstream. Unless he
runs much faster early than ever before, he figures to be coming from well behind today
for the first time. He is not particularly well bred for this distance. His trainer
underachieves at Churchill Downs. Stanford is a toss all the way out of the superfecta for
us–and a rumored scratch as of this writing.

International Star (20-1): We really enjoy watching this colt’s races. Thoroughly
professional and seemingly very athletic, he beats horses to spots and works out good
trips and makes the most of his ability.The problem with him, as we see it, is that he
doesn’t have all that much ability. He swept the uninspiring Fair Grounds prep races
while running no speed figure higher than a 94. He doesn’t have great breeding for the
extra distance. This field is full of tigers. It is going to take a lot more than he has had to
offer so far for him to pull off the upset. But he does so many things right that we will
keep him in the mix on the bottom of trifectas and superfectas.

Itsaknockout: (30-1): It would indeed be a knockout for us if this colt were to find his
way into the superfecta.

Keen Ice (50-1): We loved his sire, Curlin, but Keen Ice is way too slow and does not
interest us in the least.

Frosted (15-1): McLaughlin colt shows a steady pattern of advancement. He worked his
way up to a two-year-old top of 90. He came out at age three and ran a pair of 95s in
Florida. In the Fountain of Youth, he looked every bit like a winner before he stopped
suddenly. Then he had throat surgery to correct a problem. Then he went to Aqueduct
for the Wood and earned a speed figure of 104 in an effort that ranks near the top of our
visual highlights of the 2015 prep season. By Tapit, his breeding for the distance is
sound. His trainer is top of the line. This colt has a pleasing style for a race that
threatens to be run at a destructive pace. He is a strong contender at a price.
War Story (50-1): Making a case for International Star was hard enough. Making a case
for a horse who lost to International Star three times in a row would place excessive
demands on our creativity. He is a toss all the way out of the superfecta for us.
Mr Z (50-1): We admire this colt’s durability. We just wish his trainer didn’t feel the need
to flaunt it so often. Mr Z is more talented than most of the other horses we are leaving
out entirely, but given the way he has been raced, and given his likely involvement in a
fast pace, we have a hard time seeing him producing the kind of improvement he would
need here. He is a complete toss for us.

American Pharoah (5-2): Since providing us with what deserves to be called the very
definition of an “irrelevant debut race,” American Pharoah has put on quite a show. He
has gone 4 for 4, won going short and won going long, won on Polytrack, won on fast
dirt, and won in the slop, won with head-shaking, “Did I just see that?” ease, and, in his
final prep, won with a speed figure of 111. He won those four races (three of them Grade
1s) by a combined total of over 22 lengths, and, before, in between, and after, he
recorded a series of workouts that elicited from seasoned clockers and observers the
type of enthusiasm that one hears perhaps once every 25 years. And the positives do
not end there. In his Arkansas Derby cakewalk, he proved that he can rate kindly and
take over when asked. He is trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. He is ridden by Victor
Espinoza, a peerless distance rider who won this race a year ago. His raw talent? It may
well be unmatched in here. His negatives? We think he has significant negatives. He
had a setback in the fall. His connections have been playing catch-up. He has not been
tested under trying circumstances. His two prep races this year were in Arkansas and
came up soft. He may be harmed by the expected hot pace. His rider, talented as he is,
has long shown a fondness for wide moves and may lose excessive ground from a wide
post while under instructions to give the sort of confident, “Big Brown ride” that works
only for riders who are sitting on Big Brown. The biggest negative? Well, it’s not accurate
to call it a negative. It’s more along the lines of a warning. With a few exceptions, we
believe that workouts are best used as indications of sharpness, not of ability. For
purposes of determining ability, we are partial to what we see accomplished in battle–
accomplished during horse races. To be sure, American Pharoah has accomplished
plenty during his horse races, and his workouts going into the Derby are a strong
indication that we will be seeing his best today. Today, his supporters will learn whether
his best is sufficient. And they will learn it at short odds.

Upstart (15-1): He had a beautiful speed figure pattern as a two-year-old. He worked his
way up to a 94, earned in his troubled BC Juvenile. He came out at age three and
immediately ran a 102. This was auspicious. Then he backed up one point, which
proved to be the pause that refreshes because he followed that up with a 106 in his epic
Florida Derby duel with Materiality. His breeding for this distance is not ideal. He got ill
recently and was treated with antibiotics, which can have lingering effects, never
positive. His TimeformUS breeding rating is faster for sprints than for routes. But he has
run his race on four different racetracks and he is eligible to fire a shot here that can do a
lot of damage. A contender for sure.

Far Right (30-1): Overmatched on speed figures and humbled by American Pharoah in
his most recent start, he has little breeding to speak of and less, even, than that for 10F.
We give him essentially no chance of winning this race, but with the possibility of a pace
meltdown, and with his field-best Late Pace Rating of 102, we will refrain from tossing
him all the way out of the superfecta at huge odds.

Frammento (50-1): A/E is a total toss for us if he gets in.

Tale of Verve (50-1): He’d be a toss in a decent maiden race.

Mike Beer

Bolo
Dortmund
Frosted
Firing Line

Andy Serling

Upstart
Frosted
Keen Ice
Firing Line

El Kabeir scratched leaving a field of 19.

Andrew Beyer

1. Upstart
2. Dortmund
3. American Pharoah
4. Frosted

Courtesy of Predicteform


#1 Ocho Ocho Ocho (50/1)
Elvis Trujillo/James M.na

Here's what we had to say about Mr.na trained long-shot horse to try and give headaches to a Baffert favorite, though in this case both runners have the same owner so it becomes rather unlikely.

The Play: Regressor – too much to do from the 17 post for a runner who has been campaigned like a seasoned racehorse.

#18 American Pharoah (5/2)
Victor Espinoza/Bob Baffert

Here's what we had to say about American Pharoah prior to his Arkansas Derby victory.

The favorite in Vegas Derby futures as well as the Kentucky Derby Future Pool #4 at 5/1, American Pharoah has received more than his fair share of Derby fanfare. A winner of his last three in graded stakes competition by a combined 13 lengths, trainer Bob Baffert has done a tremendous job managing this lightly raced runner's career.

His 77.8 Reversal Pattern (REV) in late September of his two year-old season is a monster figure, so it was not surprising to see his regression back to a 72.1 (on an off track) in his first race as a three year-old. Bob Baffert could want to put more of a “bottom” in him and take him up to his near Derby performance this race, which means we should expect an open margin victory.

As projected, Pharoah won the Arkansas Derby by eight lengths, in what looked like a public workout. And, speaking of workouts (think practice), his last workout was by all accounts in the press, phenomenal, so much so that he has been compared to the best horses in the past 35 years.

From a breeding perspective, his sire Pioneerof the Nile ran second in the 2009 Derby while his dam, Littleprincessemma did little on the track. And while on paper and on the track he is already being called a Triple Crown contender, Pharoah is one of only two horses that has never run in a field of greater than nine horses, an important note as he takes on 19 others Saturday. The 18 post should suit his running style perfectly as it gives jockey, Victor Espinoza, a clear view of his competitors inside.

From a Pace Figure perspective his Arkansas Derby effort was an 80.2/78.9 (final/4furlong) Double Top (DTOP) Form Cycle Pattern. Defined as a race in which the horse has run its best 4F and final Pace Figures by a notable margin, it is considered a negative designation and a sign of potential regression.

The Play: Regressor – He could run through his last final figure as great horses can follow lifetime best after a lifetime best. The pre-race hype and morning-line favorite of odds of 5/2 make for a difficult decision on how to play the race unless you could bet him to win the Triple Crown.

#19 Upstart (15/1)
Jose L. Ortiz/Richard A Violette, Jr.

One of three NY Breds in the field, Upstart would be only the second NY bred to win the Derby (Funny Cide in 2002 was the other). In a similar vein to El Kabeir, his figures look like a horse that peaked early in his three year-old season.

The Play: Regressor – would need a big jump in his final figure to compete which looks extremely unlikely.

#20 Far Right (30/1)
Mike E. Smith/Ron Moquett

A distant second to American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby, Far Right is a come-from-behind type runner who has been at the back of the pack in his last four starts which means he could be dead last coming from the outside post. Jockey Mike Smith stays aboard and is one of the best big race jocks in the business. Smith excels on late running horses (think Zenyatta), but his Derby race record is just one for 20.

His Final Pace Figure last race was a 76.5, a clear lifetime top and well above his career average of 71.4.

The Play: Too Slow – unless an unreal speed duel takes place up front, he will have too much work to do from way behind.

#21 Frammento (50/1)
No Rider/Nicholas P. Zito

After a late defection Thursday afternoon by Stanford, Frammento scratches in off the also eligible list and inherits the outside post, number 20. While you can't win it unless you run, pundits might say this longshot had his day in the sun by getting into the race.

He's earned only $140k, which puts him dead last in money earned in the field. He has just the one win, breaking his maiden as a two year-old. Beaten by a combined 25 lengths against the likes of Carpe Diem and Upstart, you are looking at the expected longest shot in the race at post time.

Interestingly enough, his most recent final figure was a 74.1 and highest of his career but there is significantly more chance that he regresses off that top.

The Play: The first also eligible to race in the Derby, his odds of running were 50/1, while his odds of winning should be north of 100/1.

#8 Wins no question about it...

Matt Carothers - TVG

Frosted

Nick Hines

Dortmund

Only 1 of 15 TVG experts to make this pick.

Simon Bray - TVG

American Pharoah

Paul LoDuca - TVG

Upstart