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Santa Anita Brad Free

FIRST RACE
Kentucky Derby day, first post Santa Anita 11:30 a.m. MAGNA WARRIOR has become a claiming-level win machine vs. 3yos, and sharp enough to win again stepping up to $16k claiming starter vs. older. ‘WARRIOR is fast, but does not require the lead. He should get a forward trip saving ground going only five furlongs. SHAKAHARI pressed the hot pace and tired to third in his most recent. But it was a very good effort on tough fractions. He shortens in distance, and is the one to catch. A must-use. MEMPHIS is an old veteran with few wins (3). But he is most always in the hunt vs. better. And he will be involved early.

SECOND RACE
HUG AND A KISS disappointed three starts in the U.S., but she catches a very weak N1X while adding blinkers and first-time T. Baze. Her figures from her first two starts here might top the field. NICKELS WILD could take some catching up front. She stretches out, with speed to set or press. Always thought this filly had more to give than her record. Let’s see if she can return to form third start back for Gary Mandella. MISS LAFAYETTE is the only starter entered for the $40k claim tag. Her races are okay, she won this condition two back on synthetic at GG. MISS BOOM BOOM might be ranked too low. She was not beaten far last out in a G3, and she previously won a pair here. She’s a contender, for sure. Interesting filly mare N1X with price potential.

THIRD RACE
SPIN FORTY is ambitiously placed in this one-mile starter. It makes sense. He crushed maiden-30 sprinters last out in big style, and now goes long to face winners. Not easy, but the Mark Glatt-trained gelding will be on or near the lead. Looks like he can be gone under Tyler Baze. NORTHERN IOWA was stuck for a long time in N1X, then dropped to this level for his comeback which was an okay third. He is headed the right direction, third start back. Still recall his 2012 Pomona Derby at Fairplex Park. He was tons best that day. That was a long time ago. but indicative of his ability. DERBY GLASS gradually improved each start. A winner around two turns, he was claimed from a maiden-50 win by Doug O’Neill. He overcame an eventful trip last out to win by a nose.

FOURTH RACE
If comebacker POSITIVO can run at all, he should drill this weak maiden-20. It’s his first start since July. Acceptable works for a top stable, with speed to be in the mix early. Kind of a now-or-never comeback. Doesn’t get much softer. That’s why first-time starter LEMON ORCHID figures “live” if she draws in. From a good debut trainer, good works, soft foes. HAAAY SEXY LADY has some speed, and probably is the one to catch down on the rail. She has backed up every start, however. Inside speed, at an inside speed distance.

FIFTH RACE
RICHARD’S BOY ran okay last time, third in a highly rated stakes. That, and his pair of N1X wins makes him the choice with a front-end trip. He faces only one apparent pace rival, to his inside. He likes this downhill course (1-for-1). BENCH WARRANT is back doing what he does best. That is, sprint. he ran okay last time, but not as well as expected finishing fifth behind a very good 3yo (Papacoolpapacool). Back in a sprint, off-the-pace contender. WIN THE SPACE is a maiden, but he ran well all three starts. And look who he chased last time: American Pharoah. His pedigree sure looks like it could be fine on turf. He is fast.

SIXTH RACE
The pick six starts here. MAXIMINUS drops to the bottom class level ($12.5k, N2L) for the first time. He has speed, some ability, and is likely to be ridden aggressively by Edwin Maldonado. Up-front choice. SIDEPOCKET CHAMP is obvious, runner-up two straight at this level. He is a must-use. GOOD SAMURAI, off a year, returns at rock bottom for trainer. Formerly trained by the late Mike Mitchell, now trained by Phil D’Amato. I ROCK THE PARTY is a new-face longshot contender. In from Turf Paradise for a trainer that occasionally pops with these, she sure meets a soft field of locals.

SEVENTH RACE
Back in form with a sharp runner-up finish last out on this downhill course, INCLINE VILLAGE may have the edge. His comeback was good, even if it was a loss as the favorite. He ran well, trained since, and figures tough if he only reproduces that race. LARRY BIRDSTONE is a maiden, which is not an issue. These maiden-40 starter allowance races occasionally are won by maidens (who remain eligible for the condition). ‘BIRDSTONE is from a winning stable. SKY HEART will be trying a few changes and must be considered. He is first-time turf, first-time long, first-time gelding and the sure pacesetter. He’ll take ‘em as far as he can.

EIGHTH RACE
IRON FIST was a disappointment last summer as a 2yo, but maybe the $1.15 million colt can return as an improved 3yo. Sired by Tapit, he is a sibling to G1 winner Sweet Lulu, training in apparently sharp style for his comeback. STILL STANDING smoked five furlongs from the gate in 57.80. A first-time starter trained by Bob Baffert, the gelding is likely to use speed. Catch him if you can. HOOK ‘EM KURT finished an okay third in his debut, and maidens from this stable generally improve with racing. The Tale of the Cat colt has returned to train well since. Extra distance of this six and a half-furlong race also helps.

NINTH RACE
ARLINGTON HOUSE can lead wire to wire in this N1X route. He looks like the controlling speed dropping from a G3. And his starter allowance win here two starts back earned pace-speed figures that would be tough to catch. Gone out front. BIG TIRE, runner-up twice recently this condition, has run his best races long on this track. He’s a valid late threat, no doubt. NOWALKING rallied to a neck win in a maiden race one month ago. Good works since, should continue his upward progression. The stretch-out GOLD CHASER has been chasing fast sprint fractions. He’ll be on top of the pace in this route, one would think.

TENTH RACE
The good recent stakes form of BLUE TONE (graded-placed, listed winner) makes him the right choice to knock off an otherwise nondescript bunch of older horses. His most recent $80k stakes win was convincing; the additional sixteenth may actually help. CATCH A FLIGHT has improved each successive U.S. start including a good third in the G Santa Anita Handicap. Freshened two months since, shortening in distance, he will roll late. His works suggest he has maintained his form and ready for a big spring-summer. MYSTERY TRAIN, a multiple front-running Group 1 winner in Argentina, finally reproduced top form last out, runner-up in a G3 at FG. He is pure speed, and the one to catch. The challenge for train is the other front-runner. That is APPEALING TALE, whose running style is the same. Could be a little hot up front.

ELEVENTH RACE
SHANTY IRISH finished a good fifth last out in a similar turf sprint, MSW. He drops to Calbred MSW for his second try on the hill. One more step forward should do the trick. UNUSUALY ran better second time out. It was a third-place finish in a similar race. LOS GATOS is a second-start maiden, first since August. He got some wagering support that day, and trained well for his comeback.

Santa Anita - Jeff Siegel

The Derby Day program at Santa Anita begins early at 11:30 a.m. and offers a number of excellent rolling exotic wagering opportunities.

We'll double the opener using #1 My Slew and #2 Magna Warrior in this five furlong starter's allowance sprint. My Slew, first off the claim for Glatt (27% with a strong flat-bet profit with this angle) has looked sharp in the a.m. for his new connections, likes to win races, likes this main track, and should fire his best shot. The rail is of some concern but if the veteran gelding can negotiate a good trip he'll be tough to beat. Magna Warrior has won three of his last four starts and should draft into a good pace prompting position. He's picking up some weight today but that shouldn't be much of an issue. We'll give 'Slew a very slight nod on top while using both in our rolling exotics.

#4 Miss Boom Boom is a strong straight play and rolling exotic single for us in the second race, a nine furlong first-level allowance grass affair for fillies and mares. She exits a tougher race, has looked sharp in the a.m. for Hollendorfer since her last outing and has rising speed figures. There's not all that much value to be had (she's 2-1 on the morning line) but conditions couldn't be more ideal for her.

We'll go two-deep in the third race, a starter's allowance main track miler with #1 Northern Iowa having a slight edge over #6 Saint Dermot. 'Iowa is winless in six starts on this main track and is just one-for-15 overall, so he may be a hard one to trust, but this is his third start off a layoff and we're expecting another forward move. Prat will have him doing his best work late. Saint Dermot is a fit on figures, has won over this track in the past, and he returns to his preferred surface, the main track. If he's close to his morning line odds of 4-1 he may present a bit more value in the straight pool than 'Iowa. In any case, we'll use them both in our exotics.

Bottom-rung maiden claiming fillies and mares sprint five and one-half furlongs in the fourth race; on paper this is an inscrutable affair that might be best left alone. For those who want the action, #1 Haaay Sexy Lady should have enough speed to use her rail post to an advantage and against this group might get brave. #5 Catalina Bonita continues to train better than she runs and the light switch might go on today in her second start off a layoff for Mulhall. Both should be included in rolling exotic play but neither can be trusted.

The Desert Code Stakes for 3-year-olds sprinting down the hill is carded as the fifth race with #3 Bench Warrant likely to enjoy the cut back in trip. The Sadler-trained colt failed to act in a two-turn attempt last time out but won over this course and distance in the Baffles Stakes two races back and a repeat of that effort today should be good enough. #6 Richard's Boy won on turf two races back in a good allowance race and wasn't disgraced when third in the Echo Eddie behind Gimme Da Lute last time out on the main track. He'll be pressing the pace throughout and looks like the best of the front-running types.

The Pick-6 begins in the sixth race, a restricted (nw-2) extended sprint for $12,500 claimers. #10 Sidepocket Champ has been eligible to this condition seemingly forever but probably will clear it eventually, maybe even today. Second in his last pair and with a sharp five furlong spin since his most recent start, the Vronsky gelding shouldn't have any excuses today. #1 Good Samurai must leave from the rail in his first start in more than a year; the works look good enough for D'Amato (superior stats with layoff runners) and he's fast enough on speed figures if he comes back as well as he left. We'll try to survive using just these two.

The seventh race is another starter's allowance event, this one down the hill, and the best advice would seem to be to use as many as you can afford. #3 Incline Village ran well under these circumstances when second last time out and he probably won't have to improve much at all to win today. #5 Sky Heart just broke his maiden in style and then was gelded; he's likely to have plenty of room to improve for Hess and he shouldn't have an issue with the switch to turf. Small ticket players should try to get by using just these two.

The eighth race is a six and one-half furlong maiden special weight sprint for older horses and marks the comeback of the promising #1 Iron Fist, who ran in three of the toughest maiden juvenile sprints at in Southern California last summer at Del Mar and did as well as could be expected. This is a much easier assignment and the works say he's ready, so let's put the Hollendorfer-trained son of Tapit on top and hope he has clear sailing from the rail. #4 Still Standing has been impressive in the morning for Baffert and should fire a good shot in his debut, while #9 Hook 'Em Kurt, a decent third in a fast race in his only outing, seems likely to improve for Ellis, especially with an extra furlong to work with. We'll use all three in our rolling exotics.

We'll also triple the ninth race; it's a middle distance main track first-level allowance affair that is quite competitive. #3 Venetian Mask seems better than shown and in his second off a layoff for Hollendorfer the son of Pulpit should produce a major forward move. #7 Big Tire, nosed out vs. similar in a hot race for the level, will be hard to handle if runs back to that effort today, while #9 Anxious Times puts on blinkers for the first time, has rising speed figures for Mandella, and seems to be finally figuring things out. A slight edge goes to Venetian Mask, especially if you can get close to his 8-1 morning line odds.

The Precisionist is carded as the 10th race; it's a middle distance event that has enough early speed in it to set things up for a closer, most notably #5 Catch a Flight. Third behind Shared Belief in the Santa Anita Handicap last time out, he'll find this group considerably easier and looks capable of producing a winning late kick for the Mandella-Prat team. #7 Blue Tone looked quite good winning the Santana Mile in late March and has trained sharply since for Hess; a similar effort can be expected today. #9 Motown Men earned a triple digit Beyer figure when recently crushing a much softer field; he should enjoy a similar pace prompting trip today while retaining Baze while getting tested for class. We'll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets using Catch a Flight.

The finale is a wide open straight maiden Hillside turf sprint; we'll zero in on just two though you may choose to go considerably deeper. #10 Los Gatos closed a gap in his debut at Del Mar last summer against a decent group of maidens and then was stopped on. He returns for Gaines with a nice set of works and certainly is bred to move up considerably on grass. At 6-1 on the morning line he offers good value in both the straight pool and the rolling exotics. #7 Unusualy, third over this course and distance in March, has plenty of room to improve for McCarthy and would seem to be the one to fear most.