David Solar, ESPN Chalk
We're two weeks into the 2015 NFL season and contrarian strategy continues to provide profitable results for bettors. Last week's system matches were 3-1 against the spread (ATS), pushing our season record to 5-2 ATS. Before we examine our latest betting system and picks, let's first analyze early returns from contrarian betting.
One of the foundational blocks of our contrarian strategy includes betting against the public. Whichever team the public loads up on, we simply bet the other side. Although underdogs have gone just 16-16 ATS this season, teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets have gone 17-13 ATS, while teams receiving less than 30 percent of spread bets are 7-3 ATS.
Our success continues with the 2015 NFL Betting Against the Public Report, which details the sweet spot for contrarian betting. The featured system posted a 2-0 ATS record last week, which pushes the all-time record to 113-66 ATS.
This week, we'll employ another contrarian betting strategy that seeks to find value by identifying betting market overreactions based on recent results. To do this, we used our Bet Labs analysis software and created a system with a 62.5 percent ATS win rate since 2003 and features two current game matches for this week's slate.
We have stated in the past that bettors place far too much emphasis on home-field advantage. Sure, there are stadiums like CenturyLink Field where the crowd has helped the Seahawks post an NFL-best 57-36 ATS record (compared to just 40-55 ATS on the road), but that's the exception, not the rule.
In our database, home teams have won 57.6 percent of their games straight up and have won by an average margin of 2.64 points. However, the standard belief is that home-field advantage is worth three points as compared to a neutral-site game. This would indicate that although there is value to playing at home, oddsmakers shade these lines too much due to public perception and betting habits. This information is validated by our historical ATS data, which shows that visitors have won 51 percent of their games against the spread (1,526-1,469).
Knowing that there was a slight edge to taking road teams, we hypothesized that our results would improve significantly by focusing on teams that played their previous game on the road and lost.
CRITERIA/ATS RECORD/UNITS WON/ROI
Road Team Following Loss 689-605 (53.2%) +50.01 +3.9%
Road Team Following Road Loss 277-187 (59.7%) +78.41 +16.9%
Road Underdog Following Road Loss 201-133 (60.2%) +59.14 +17.7%
Road Underdog Following Road Loss, OU <45 157-94 (62.5%) +56.73 +22.6%
Why does this work?
As we explained in our Week 2 analysis, bettors are prone to overreacting to the past week's results, which we wanted to once again exploit. It's reasonable to expect that bettors will avoid teams that have not played well recently, especially if those teams have also cost bettors money.
Through shaded opening lines and/or line moves based on one-sided public betting, bettors are forced to take favorites in these matchups at inflated numbers, which paves the way for contrarian bettors to scoop up extra value by buying back the underdogs.
Our past research has also indicated that underdogs are particularly successful in games with low totals. Low-scoring games have a narrower range of likely outcomes, and this disproportionately benefits the team getting points.
We should note that the New Orleans Saints lost their previous game on the road, and are a potential system fit. However, this game is currently off the board due to Drew Brees' shoulder injury. If the Saints open as an underdog against the Panthers, New Orleans could be our third pick for the week.
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) at Arizona Cardinals
After two weeks, there may be no team flying higher than the Arizona Cardinals. Not only has Bruce Arians' squad jumped out to a 2-0 record, it also leads the league in point differential at plus-37.
With tremendous momentum behind them, the Cardinals opened as 6.5-point favorites and have received 76 percent of spread bets. Despite this overwhelming public support, oddsmakers have been unwilling to push Arizona to the key number of -7. In fact, some of the sharpest offshore sportsbooks have gone in the opposite direction and moved San Francisco from +6.5 to +6.
This reverse line movement is an excellent indicator of sharp money, but it's hardly the only one. The 49ers fit countless contrarian betting systems, including our blowout system, both our 2014 and 2015 NFL Betting Against the Public systems as well as our Week 6 system from last season and our Week 8 system from 2013.
The Cardinals are being talked about as Super Bowl contenders while the 49ers are coming off a 25-point road loss, meaning this game perfectly fits the strategy of buying on bad news and selling on good.
With countless system matches, contrarian value and sharp money indicators, we'll gladly take San Francisco +6.5 on Sunday.
San Diego Chargers (+2.5) at Minnesota Vikings
This game is interesting as both teams enter the game with a 1-1 record with their lone victory coming in home games against the same team: the Detroit Lions. Last week, the Vikings defeated the Lions 26-16 while the Chargers beat the Lions 33-28 in Week 1.
However, last week the Chargers lost by five points against the Bengals, which could allow bettors an opportunity to buy low. San Diego opened as a three-point underdog and public betting has been fairly even with 54 percent of spread bets taking the Chargers. Despite this even betting, San Diego has dropped from +3 to +2.5 across the betting marketplace.
Road dogs have historically fared well after close games, which could lend further value to San Diego coming off a five-point loss to the Bengals. Ideally, bettors took this game early before oddsmakers moved from +3 to +2.5, but we still like San Diego getting 2.5 points.
