Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar Selections Central The Unfair Advantage, Jeffrey's Picks

Hello all, I'll be posting some plays here starting with the second half of the NBA season and hopefully beyond..

I have been around sports betting for a long time and I can say with (almost) complete certainty that I have lost more money betting in my life than I've won. I've learned from this and continue to try to learn every day. I can also say with (some) confidence that the only two scenarios where I have turned a profit in the sports betting were these two:

1. Betting teases in the NFL and NCAAF. My success in this arena is bc my plays are mostly home teams favored by (around) 7 to 8.5 points and I'll tease the team to under a field goal. I find there to be good value sometimes in those situations.

and 2. Betting the NBA in a controlled manner.

I think that when betting NBA, there are two things to look at. Capacity (or capability) and desire (or how bad the team wants to win). Both are very important. If you've ever played pick up basketball - the days where you go for three hours and play four games - you can't give 100% every single moment. I was never that naturally talented, but I always had a motor and gave everything I had.. but even I knew when it was time to save energy for the next game or if extra effort was futile. That said, I've also played in different rec flag football leagues through the years and no one knows who is more likely to win or lose than the people playing in the game, looking objectively at the contest. That's why I love hearing the players' opinions. And of course, you need to read through the layer of PR garbage to see what they really think.

Betting sports is a mind fuck (is occasional swearing in bounds here? I'll edit it out if not) and whatever the average person thinks is more often than not wrong. Sometimes, books will draw ppl and their eyes to a certain game on purpose. Like a -4.5 road favorite in NBA is one of the ugliest plays you can make. It's easy. Books make it easy Bc they want you to play it. I lost money on NE -3 against the Broncos in the AFC championship.. It was such a juicy line against a QB who couldn't throw in the wind.. Why didn't they ever raise it across the board to -3.5 when 80% of money was on NE? It's because books aren't always looking for 50/50 money. That'd be ideal in a perfect world, but the world isn't perfect and the books know this. Sometimes they'll push action a certain way, at least a little bit, and I'm willing to bet that these guys are right more than they're wrong.

So, I hope to figure out the mind fuck traps I've been walking into for years in the NFL .. (I'm open to advice too) and apply my logic which has helped me succeed in the NBA into other sports. Although, I acknowledge the on/off switch and effort are more prominent in the NBA than other sports.

Anyway.. Bringing this full circle.. I'll be picking up to five NBA games daily on a 2-6 unit scale. I am a big believer that your very best play of the year should only be worth a little more than another play that's made the cut in order for you to play. Most of my plays will be 4 or 6 units and I'm not a fan of the 1 unit plays Bc if it isn't worth 2 in this current system, then it's probably not worth playing. I only buy hooks in one situation in badeltball and that's buying a +4.5 dog to +5. 5-7 are the most common margins of victory in NBA games. **and that's not good value; I completely acknowledge that's not good value, but that's just something I do.** I recommend shopping lines, but I only have one book I regularly use at this point, so I try to anticipate line movements a little bit. If you shop, you should be able to get my lines or better most of the time.

Feel free to read along, remember that your plays are always your plays - whether a expert or an average Joe encourages you to play them - they're always your plays. If you'd prefer to fade me, I promise you'll have some great days along the way lol, but I'm hoping I win more than I lose. Records will be here and good luck!

2/18 NBA Cleveland -13 for 6 units
2/18 NBA LAC +5 (-120) for 2 units
2/18 NBA Washington -1 for 2 units

Here I'll put a one-two ish line rationale for why, but I'd be happy to defend my position further as I usually journal my thoughts regarding each game I play.

Cleveland is playing to massacre and Chicago is talking trades and missing Butler, Dunleavy, Noah. This isn't the same team LeBron has struggled against. Who will be focused tonight? Any trades occur, which there is a chance, this play could be in flux but I'll stick with it. Even with trades by Chicago, I think the line would only grow. Btw - 64ish % of public on Chicago (covers.com) and line is still growing? I like Cleveland. I got them at -12.5, but by the time I'm posting this its -13 at my site. I was mad I didn't jump earlier at -12.

I think the Clips are pretty good. They impressed me and Paul impressed me before the break. Spurs are damn good.. But last year they were only like 22-21 ish on the road. They're a home team. Clips want to prove they can hang and I expect a close game; Spurs may win a tight one - I'm not sure. But -3.5 road chalk usually (I believe) means books want you to play the dog. The line quickly grew to -4.5 and has sat though. 70% ish of public on Spurs even laying the chalk... I think some value on LA here.

Utah isn't ready to be considered a good value at +1 on the road. Hot or not. I think Utah is on the upswing, Wash and Wall are overrated, and it concerns me that 75% of public are on Wash and the line is just chilling. BUT - I believe these three games in three days for Wash will be like a last stand type deal. Since Favors came back Utah is like 14-7 but they beat some bad teams on that win streak. I think at home and a 1 point chalk is still good value and public gets paid on this one. If I'm wrong it'll tell you that Utah will be great value the rest of the season; they will be anyway, just not tonight.

And yes.. I like more home teams than road and chalk/dog split will hopefully be around 50/50.

2/19 NBA Detroit +1 for 6 units
2/19 NBA Toronto -6 for 5 units
2/19 NBA Minnesota +4 for 5 units
2/19 NBA NY Knicks -3.5 for 4 units
2/19 NBA Indiana +8.5 for 2 units

Write up to follow

Through doing my research, I had already loved Detroit, regardless of spread, at Washington after Wash won last night. Dude, what a fun circumstance here on the scoresandodds.com - it says "Reggie Jackson probable". Now I know my NBA pretty well, but this is hilarious to me because the average bettor will look at that and say WTF who the hell is Reggie Jackson? I know who Reggie Jackson, he's the back up from OKC who came over - but it says probable next to his name. Why would it say this? Who cares?! If he is probable, is it even worth mentioning? It's worth mentioning because the bookkeepers are doing the mindfuck thing on the trap game (which is the top game on the board). They are saying "hey you! Reggie Jackson against John Wall. Your boy, John Wall, he just beat Utah!" Yep. I like Detroit. I thought wash was way overrated yesterday and still do. Detroit makes a mini run in the second half of the year. Oh wow - wash is -1 and 66% of the public is still on them. Wow. I <3 Detroit here.

Minnesota yes... They play at Knicks tomorrow and I'm unsure how the kids will do off the break which is why it's a 5 and not a 6. I like them a lot here though. I got lucky and got it at an awesome +4.5 and bought it to 5 - if you can find that, I'd advise it. Minnesota is just a 5 though after the break and the away record for Min is bad compared to Memphis home record.. But... Memphis wins a lot of tight ones... Plus Min beat Memphis last time, which means not a whole lot. Memphis is cleaning house and packing on their champ aspirations, they'll be like a 7 seed ish, I believe.

I love Toronto. The fact that the Bulls keep fighting and Toronto could win by only a couple keeps this.. No, tbh, this is a 6 unit play at -5. But I see the line is already at 6 on my site and 6.5 on covers. I like them here and -6 being steep is the only reason it's a 5 and not a 6 unit play.

NY? Yes. Wish I had jumped when it was at -3. Knicks are thinking late playoff push and Brooklyn is thinking young players getting minutes. Nets won the last matchup too, so Knicks will want it. New coach, new energy for the Knicks. I believe they'll win this one, lose to Min, then maybe fight against Toronto at home.

Indiana is good value. George will be playing really hard due to some silly all star thing that seemed to bother him and pacers will want to make a push. OKC also plays Cleveland next and may look ahead a little.

Yesterday's Result:
2/18 NBA Cleveland -13 for 6 units L -6.6
2/18 NBA LAC +5 (-120) for 2 units W +2
2/18 NBA Washington -1 for 2 units W +2
YTD: 2-1, -2.6

*Bummer on the Cavs, but them's the breaks! I'm sure they'll even out in the end. Best to just be on the side with more value than not more times than not.*

Yesterday's result:
2/19 NBA Detroit +1 L -6.6
2/19 NBA Toronto -6 L -5.5
2/19 NBA Minnesota +4 L -5.5
2/19 NBA NY Knicks -3.5 L -4.4
2/19 NBA Indiana +8.5 W +2
Ytd: 3-5, -22.6

Horrible day, but I still don't mind the picks. I really did love Detroit there, Toronto was a wrong play, but books thought Toronto too as the line
Closed at -7.5.. And I still like the Knicks there - line movement was behind me too, closing at 5. Indiana was a small play. And Minnesota - well, Whacha gonna do? I'll always record strict lines - I don't like to mark a W if anyone playing my side lost.. Sometimes it happens with line movements, but that's why I try to record strict lines on the front end.

***Quick shout out to Golden Greek who killed it last night! Great plays, GG***

2/20 NBA Golden State -3.5 for 6 units
2/20 NBA Atlanta -8.5 for 4 units
2/20 NBA Minnesota -1.5 for 3 units

Yes, I hate the idea of three chalks, but this is how I'm rolling today...

I like golden state. I know that a -4.5 opening line road chalk is not a pretty play.. But off a loss.. I like GS and I'm a believer... Yeah, we know I like the Clips - just not today. Not enough firepower. And I'm seeing it at -3.5. Overreaction by the books, for sure.

Atlanta got embarrassed and beat bad by backups last night. They also lost the last time they played the Bucks in Mil and need to bring it today. Plus, Mil had a battle at home they couldn't pull out last night.

Bringing us back to Minnesota.. 63% are on Minnesota. Minnesota is 1-8 su on back to back days. Hence the small play.. But I just think there's value here. Minnesota lost a tough one in the fourth last night but I still find value here with minny coming back home against a team they are better than right now, in my opinion

Yesterday's Result:
2/20 NBA Golden State -3.5 for 6 units L -6.6
2/20 NBA Atlanta -8.5 for 4 units L -4.4
2/20 NBA Minnesota -1.5 for 3 units L -3.3

YTD: 3-8, -36.9

All, I completely own the fact that yesterday's Minnesota play was my worst play of this thread and one of my maybe five worst of the year! I'll be reflecting a little more before posting. Maybe 1-2 hours before the first game starts. Atlanta wasn't a great play, but I was just plain wrong more than it was a bad play and GS I thought was high quality.

More picks to come later, they will be very well thought out, win or lose.

Plus I play a couple paid professionals each day... I think I'm going to start mentioning which other plays I'm playing (and give due credit of course) - also on a 2-6 scale. I'll separate those plays in the YTD record, but it's all about finding any way to win and make quality plays. (Unlike mine yesterday, my bad - I own it and paid for it!)

12/20 NBA Toronto -7 (-120), 6 units
12/20 NBA Portland -3, 6 units
12/20 NBA OKC -2.5, 4 units
12/20 NBA New Orleans +5, 4 units
12/20 NBA LA Lakers +7, 4 units

Love Toronto coming home here, yep I bought the hook - it's empowering - but not good value (I know, I know). Memphis is cleaning shop the rest of this year.

I like Portland even tho the public loves them. Last big home win (vs OKC) they came back and won again. 3rd game in 4 nights for Utah.

I was torn on OKC/Cle, but Shump is out and Frye isn't available yet. I know LBJ owns KD, but so does the kid. OKC at home here is good value, imo.

Scoresandodds is telling me "bet Detroit," especially with a -4.5 opening line. They play Cleveland tomorrow, I'll take NO with a little confidence to keep it close after a relatively easy W vs Philly.

I think the Lakers could win outright here. I still don't believe the Bulls as have bet against them in like a million straight games. I love the Lakers depth of box score vs San Antonio and the fact that they only lost by 4 when down more in the 3rd. I don't think the Bulls can beat the lakers by double digits right now, even at home.

And my "experts I'm following today's" plays:

2/20 NCAAM USC -2 (Doc), 3 units
2/20 NCAAM Houston -4.5 (Eastman), 3 units

**I will always use the line at my site at the time of the post for this section too**

I like the Doc Spors crew, specifically Indian Cowboy and Robert Ferringo. I like Steve Budin and Al DeMarco, but really no one else at atsedge.com (or any B Lang site), other than those two. I'm super open to feedback on this section of my plays, though.

Also wondering if this is legit - I'm picking the handicappers I'm betting on today, isn't that a bet in itself? Idk, we'll see how this goes but when I focus on certain "experts," with certain parameters, it can be successful sometimes.

FYI... I'll save the "edited by" but I totally meant 2/21 not 12/20 and then 2/20. Dates are hard, ok? Lol

Best of luck, everyone!

2/22 NBA Milwaukee -8, 6 units
2/22 NBA Indiana +1, 6 units
2/22 NBA Minnesota +5, 4 units
2/22 NBA Atlanta +7.na here to roll against a bad team like they did so many times last year. Indiana is on the rise and Miami is certainly not, dig the pacers here and it may be tight within 5 - but I'd take them -2, maybe -3 even. Minnesota has that feel of an ugly bet and those ugly bets win more than they lose; plus Boston back to back games after a W. I think Atlanta can put up a fight at home, plus GS can cruise at times. I like Detroit to put up a fight, Cle will have a little letdown and are short handed. LAC, I think, will roll. Phoenix is bad and clips are going to be looking for a win after a "not as close as the score indicated" loss to GS.

Yesterday's Results (YTD):
My NBA: 3-2, +7.2 (6-10, -29.7)
Experts: 0-2, -6.6 (same (on this thread at least, had some other plays in "bet the house"))

Nothing from the experts today so far, but I'm very happy to see Indian Cowboy concurring with three of my NBA plays!

Love it. I'm all about trying to come up with quality plays, win or lose. They tend to win more than lose in the long run.

2/23 NBA Orlando -5 (-120) for 6 units
2/23 NBA New Orleans +5 (-120) for 6 units

I said from day 1 that I buy the hooks on +4.5 up to +5 and that same theory applies to -5.5 to -5. It's the only number I confidently buy every time in basketball. I shouldn't do it anywhere else, but sometimes I do, and even around 5 is questionable. It's helped me recently but I'd have to dive into some analytics to figure out if it's profitable in the long run. Maybe after the year.

Anyway, I like NO to keep it tight. Washington plays Chicago tomorrow, they know how important that game is and I also just don't believe Washington is that good and think NO is poised for a second half run.

I'm all about the Magic here. Love this play at -5. I know not everyone will be able to find this line, but they've won a few games by 7ish so it's a valuable line. -5.5 opening lines mean the books generally want you to go the other way. This is a trickier case Bc public is also backing Orlando (64% on covers.com, but that's not overwhelming for a chalk), I just believe Skiles when he says this is a must win and think the players want to have a chance at making a run to the postseason.

Yesterday's result (YTD, for Jeffrey's NBA plays):
3-3, -5.6 (9-13, -34.8)

If you get a chance, check out yesterday's 6 analyses and the final scores of all 6 games. I am not thrilled about 3-3, but am happy with the overall quality of the plays. Just gotta keep trying to find the value, maybe get a little lucky, and in the long run hopefully make some money.

3 more plays (and that'll do it for today - unless there's some awesome expert pick, I suppose):

2/23 NBA Denver -1.5 for 5 units
2/23 NBA Sac/Den Under 222.5 for 3 units
2/23 NBA Brooklyn +11.5 for 5 units

I know Portland has been hot, I think I've picked them once or twice lately. That being said – this seems like a steep price, the public seems to like Portland, and it sure looks like a trap game in the midst of a homestand for Portland. Brooklyn may lose by around 10 sometimes, but they seem to be hard-fought losses. Brook Lopez also has experienced some success vs Portland.

And I love the Denver defense tonight. I foresee some effort for their coach against his old team, after they had no effort vs Boston and got beat due to Rondo and cousins monster games in Sac the other day. I don't see them repeating exactly in Denver. Plus 222.5 seems high, doesn't it? Idk. I dig the under a little bit here, too.

One expert play today..

2/23 NHL Dallas -135 (Strike Point and Sharpe), 3 units

2/24 NBA Chicago -1.5 for 6 units
2/24 NBA Minnesota +9 for 6 units
2/24 NBA LAC -11 for 5 units
2/24 NBA Memphis -9 for 4 units
2/24 NBA Dallas +5 for 4 units
2/24 NBA San Antonio -7 (-120) for 4 units

**I know I initially said 5 per day, but second time this week I saw value in six games. I guess we'll see! Occasionally, I'll go off-script... But still in control, of course!**

You guys know I fade Chicago all day, but this one is important to Chi town. Wash just got a big win and doesn't need it as much, imo. Last wash win at chi - wash bench and everyone went nuts and chi had Noah's 0-7 and some other lame individual performances.

Toronto just had a huge win and play Cle next. I dig the Minnesota value.

Clips are in executioner mode and Denver is going to need to start trying soon - but if they couldn't play with the Kings for 3 quarters last night, they won't be able to keep up with a rested clippers team. Reddick said "our possessions are more important to us than our opponents" (I may be paraphrasing) but I'm inclined to bet a chalk riding that confidence.

I think Memphis is decent value and lakers shoulda/coulda lost by double digits to the Bucks. A rested Grizz at home for the only time in a while. The tank is on, but not tonight.

I like Dallas to play hard off the rest with David lee putting a surprising double digit points or rebounds if he plays. OKC seems to play better off of wins than losses, but I expect a scrappy effort here either way from Dallas.

I like the Spurs here. I initially saw the line and public love and said "kings" but looking into it - a rested Spurs team called out by Pop? If Leonard was definitely playing I woulda liked it even more but then I thought about it and even if he isn't - they got called out by Pop! Kings just barely held on last night, can't possibly get the intensity up again after the hearts were racing late yesterday.

Yesterday's result (YTD):
My NBA plays: 2-3, -5 (11-16, -39.8)
My expert plays: 1-0, +3 (1-2, -3.6)

Expert play:

2/24 NCAAM Xavier +1.5 (Indian Cowboy) for 5 units

I'd be patient, I believe the line will continue to go Villanova's way, maybe as high as 2.

Line seems to be holding steady. I just got Xavier at +1.5. I'd advise proceeding with the +1.5 at this point. Thanks and best of luck!

One more expert play..

2/24 NCAAM Oklahoma -15 (Ferringo) for 5 units

2/25 NBA Orlando +8 for 6 units
2/25 NBA Boston -7 (-120) for 6 units
2/25 NBA Houston +5 (-120) for 6 units
2/25 NBA Phoenix +2 for 4 units
2/25 NBA OKC -5 (-120) for 3 units

*I was sick of the close losses and pushes, so I jumped on good lines and manipulated them a little. I still advise line shopping, I only have the one spot right now.*

I know the Dubs can play, but it's a trappy game after the Miami win and before the gauntlet of @OKC, vsAtl, vsOKC and I think they'd be fine playing a game close to the cuff and winning by a couple.

I love Boston here. Off a loss, with Milw coming off two wins, at Boston - I expect them to take care of business. Boston is one of the top east teams this year. I know the Bucks have won four of five, but four of those games were at home and the one on the road was a great upset win. against the Hawks in overtime, but I like Boston here.

I like Houston a lot at +5. I really think they need this one more than Portland and will come out swinging. I know Portland is 6-1 ats as this range favorite and -9 on scoresandodds matchup thing.. But this one is about desire, not capacity. Portland is amazing and I will play them this year, just not this game.

I like Phoenix. They just got trounced. Chandler is back and, while I do believe in the tank having lived in Buffalo during the Eichel sweepstakes, after starting 0-10 - the new coach wants a win. Plus players don't really buy into tanking too much, I don't think; it's just tough to dig extra deep when your home fans secretly want you to lose for the betterment of the overall franchise.

I expect NO to have a good second half of the season, but I think OKC is better when on a roll. Let's bring it down to 5 and snag some value. OKC notoriously owns the west.

Yesterday's result (YTD):
My NBA plays: 2-2-2 (13-18-2, -39.8)
Expert plays: 2-0, +10 (3-2, +6.4)