Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar Selections Central The Unfair Advantage, Jeffrey's Picks

I was wrong about Austin Rivers, he was tough and played well. Raps collapse surprised me and I should've shaken Charlotte and no touched it. Bad night, I'll own it and try to pick it back up!

Yesterday's (4/29) result (YTD):
My NBA plays: 0-3, -17.6 (148-149-6, -55.1)
NBA Playoffs (YTD): 19-20, -.8

4/30

My NBA plays:

San Antonio -6.5 for 6 units

Today I like the Spurs. I watched some of that OKC/Dallas series and all I kept thinking was how undisciplined KD is with his shot selection at times. This series, he's going to have the best defensive wing in the league harassing him and all around. Those Spurs are ready and waiting.. Curry is banged up.. It's Duncan/Manu/Parkers last or second last chance and they have Kawaii and LaMarcus. Are you kidding me with this roster? So good. So deep. And they are going to roll the poor defense of OKC and a couple years ago - the series was 2-2 but Spurs rolled at home in games 1 & 2. I expect a good win for the Spurs here and I'm ready to hop on the bandwagon of a very good team. The best teams win and cover the spreads. Time for me to jump on board with a good play on a good team.

5/1/2016

My NBA plays:

Miami -6.5 for 6 units
Toronto -6 for 6 units
2 Team Parlay Miami & Toronto ML, risk 6 to win 5 units
4 Team Parlay Miami, Toronto, Golden State, Cleveland (tomorrow) ML risk 6 to win 11 units

First, I'd like to address the parlays. These are all moneylines and multiple team parlays - but I like these plays a lot. My plays of the day are Toronto and Miami to advance, and I know GS and Cle will win their series's- so they need Game 1. Ats, not sure about the other two - may actually hammer Atlanta +7.5 ish tomorrow, we'll see. But these four games - I think the teams will win. Parlays are never good value and I don't generally advise parlays and if you're regularly doing them - reconsider. But this is a unique opportunity and I'm taking the shot. I'm willing to bet that these four teams are going to win these games.

Toronto -6.. Why? The guards. They haven't played well often but they are great players. I also read an interesting theory about why the NBA would want Toronto in the next round for the fact that Canada is a big market. Pacers played really well last game and rolled the Raps - but they didn't dominate the box score like blowouts usually do. I think Toronto wins a series on their home court.

Miami or Charlotte? Who will be more entertaining facing the Cavs if they get to that point? I like the Heat at home -6.5 to take care of business and win by ten. The line is growing and only 38% of the public is on this side. Sharps like laying the chalk today in both games we're playing here, so I'm jumping on board, trying to capitalize.

Yesterday's (4/30) result (YTD):
My NBA plays: 1-0, +6 (149-149-6, -49.1)
NBA playoffs: 20-20, +5.2

5/2

My NBA plays:

San Antonio -7.5 for 6 units
2 Team 4 point tease of SA to -3.5 & Cle to -3.5 (-110) for 6 units
2 Team ML Parlay SA & Cle, Risk 12 units to win 6
Cleveland Series Play -500, Risk 30 units to win 6
Miami series play +145, risk 6 units to win 8

I only advise playing the series plays if you have the ammo to fire (and if you'd like, middle your Cleveland action with Atl ATS). Anyway, these plays are Bc I think the NBA wants the Cleveland/Miami matchup bad. They will settle for the Canadian market if Toronto ends up being better than expected Bc Indy was better than expected, but I anticipate the viewers get what they want. If you see Cavs to win the East somewhere, why not take that too? Jeez, I mean come on - Cavs didn't blow Detroit away, but that Van Gundy team played scrappy and might have beaten Toronto. I actually believe that. Anyway, Toronto is bad - I mean that series against Indiana took everything they had and PG was way better than any "all star" Toronto produced.

So.. You may have noticed some unique strategies and different approaches that started yesterday. I did adjust. In the postseason, the lines are slowly going to get sharper with less selection on the board - and last year I learned that the team that's probably going to win the series usually wins the series. This year, there absolutely will be Cleveland in the ECF and GS/SA in the WCF. How can there not be? Why not find creative ways to get money on that notion? That's my plan. I'm finding ways to do that. Feel free to ride with me or stick to spreads and totals - just two different ways to approach the same goal of winning.

I don't love the Atl/Cle game ATS, but I like Cleveland to win. They can't lose Game 1 - no way. Not if they're a shoe-in to the ECF as I anticipate. I actually have some stuff hovering both ways hoping on a Cle win in the 4 to 7 range. That said - I think they'll win and only laying 3.5 in Cleveland I can live with.. Especially since they're paired with..

A 40-1 at home Spurs team. Yeah - I think the Spurs are still a good value. I can't possibly see them coming out flat here, they need to go up 2-0 and I believe they will. It's possible it's a reasonable game (unlike the last one) but Pop and the Spurs are so good. I don't believe they lose this one either.

Yesterday's (4/30) result (YTD):
My NBA plays: 2-1, +4.4 (151-150-6, -44.7)
NBA playoffs: 22-21, +9.6

Pending play: 4 Team Parlay (first 3 yesterday) Miami, Toronto, Golden State, Cleveland (today) ML risk 6 to win 11 units

Tough finish in San Antonio or not, teases aren't a good value and parlays are straight sucker's bets. Got that one out of my system.. Back to it today.

Yesterday's (5/2) result (YTD):
My NBA plays: 1-3, -14.2 (152-153-6, -58.9)
NBA playoffs: 23-24, -4.6

Pending plays:
NBA Cleveland Series Play -500, Risk 30 to win 6 units
NBA Miami series play +145, risk 6 to win 8 units

5/3

My NBA plays:

Miami +4.5 for 6 units
Portland First Half +6 for 3 units
Portland +10 for 3 units

For Miami, I believe they will win this series and to do so, I think they need a win in Toronto in game 1 or 2. I'll happily catch some points here. By the way, watch out for DeRozan - but even if he drops 30, I wouldn't be surprised if Lowry continues to struggle and its a close game. I think Lowry is hurt. Raptors barely snuck by Indiana.. Listen - I know PG13 is good and I had money on Toronto often in that series - but sometimes, you've accomplished your goal and thats good enough. Part of me believes that's what's up here in Toronto. Btw - what's up with that fourth quarter in game 7? Playing scared or not to lose or what? NBA gets its marquee east finals matchup and Miami may win this first one outright.

Portland got beat bad in game 1. Warriors are the better team. But they also got smacked early and no one is climbing out of that hole in Golden State. I think Portland starts out stronger and keeps this one in the single digits tonight. Last game, Klay shot 50% from the field, 14-28, and from 3, 7-14. Yes - he can do it again - but McCollum went 5-17 and Lillard 8-26 and Plumlee went 0-7. Those are straight up anomalies. I'm sure Golden State will still pull out the win, but they only won by 12 last game with anomalies and Portland's bench played well keeping the notion of a backdoor cover alive.

5/4

My NBA plays:

Cleveland -7.5 for 6 units

I like the Cavs to just roll the Hawks tonight. I know when you glance at the numbers - you see Millsap, Horford, Bazemore, and Teague struggle - no repeat, right? Doesn't really matter Bc you're overlooking the Dennis Schroeder anomaly. And the Kevin Love 4-17 night. And they still won by double digits.. This game is nice Bc I like the single digit line all around. They can just rout the Hawks, which I think they may win by 20 (I'd estimate LBJ drops 35 and makes over 10 free throws), but if this is close after 3, they've proven they can still cover. They don't turn the ball over and can make some nice shots when they need to. This year's Cavs will give the Dubs a finals to remember for a long time to come. I like Cleveland at home here, there's a reason this line never dipped to -6.5 after a Cle win and close game.

Yesterday's (5/2) result (YTD):
My NBA plays (all season): 2-1, +5.7 (154-154-6, -53.2)
NBA playoffs: 25-25, +1.1

Pending plays:
NBA Cleveland Series Play -500, Risk 30 to win 6 units
NBA Miami series play +145, risk 6 to win 8 units

5/5

Toronto -4.5 for 6 units

I like Toronto here. Miami could take both at home and I think the series finishes in 5 or 6. Last game the 3 point percentage was off.. Ridiculously. Plus Miami got the calls.. They did, I watched and was very happy about it. When Lowry made that 3, I think the refs, NBA, and all of America were like "wtfffff." This time - we're siding with the public unfortunately, but this line could potentially grow so might as well take it under 5 - if you can find 4, sweet. I know everyone is saying Lowry is shot and maybe he is - but everyone has one left in the tank at home when their backs are against the wall and all he needs is fifteen for them to cover. They won't make his life hard and they will adjust the offense a little bit, what a dumb statement that they won't change anything at all. They'll change how things are presented and his teammates will be out to have his back. Kyle publicly acknowledged his cold streak - raps are done this series.. But every team is filled with professionals who need to prove something. Anyway, really though, he just needs to not suck. Raps aren't advancing but this is one of their two final home games of the year and they'll play with their backs against the walls. Miami has been one to let down a little like game 3 in Charlotte and Whiteside is banged up.

Yesterday's (5/4) result (YTD):
My NBA plays: 1-0, +6 (155-154-6, -47.2)
NBA playoffs: 26-25, +7.1

Pending plays:
NBA Cleveland Series Play -500, Risk 30 to win 6 units
NBA Miami series play +145, risk 6 to win 8 units

5/6

My NBA plays:

San Antonio Spurs Moneyline -130 for 6 units
Atlanta Hawks +2.5 for 6 units

I think the Spurs will win this series. I think they're really good.. Today, we're siding with one chalk and one dog - one public play (SA) and one public fade (Atl). One home and one away. I love that kind of balance. I find that the results will tend to generally mix and all dogs don't usually sweep.

Off a loss in the regular season, the Spurs rolled. They rolled big. Only time they didn't was late in the season on a 3 game losing streak with two against the Warriors and a sandwich game. Spurs, off a loss, with 4 days rest - I'm jumping on this. Spurs cannot go down 3-1 and legitimately expect to win this series and I really believe they still win this series. I still don't think OKC is all that great even though they had me questioning everything for a bit there - why? Bc the Spurs couldn't make anything (other than LaMarcus) at all and OKC started very hot? And the Spurs still clawed back? Spurs/Warriors is still on the docket in the West. I'm not buying Russ's great great game and KD's efficiency as sustainable.

Second, I like the Hawks catching points. They're mad. They just got trounced and this has letdown game written all over it for LBJ and the Cavs. Some of those same threes won't fall in Georgia and even though the Cavs ticket was punched after game 2, that's exactly why we're fading them in game 3. Do we really believe the Cavs sweep here? I don't think the NBA can handle only four LeBrons pre Heat series. They can definitely make another game out of this and maybe push it to 6 if they're lucky. If Hawks lose 3, 4 will be close, but I believe 3 will be close or Hawks will take care of business. Reminds me of Toronto last night.. Decent play btw - they got every whistle - but they couldn't make anything!! I asked Lowry not to suck. That's all I needed from him per my analysis.. He was one FT away from me saying he was "underwhelming" ... but he didn't make that FT and the box score will do the talking for me. Hawks keep this one close because they have to. Expect a Hawks win or this thing decided on the final bucket and Cavs shot just happens to fall or the Hawks' doesn't.

Yesterday's (5/5) result (YTD):
My NBA plays: 0-1, -6.6 (155-155-6, -53.8)
NBA playoffs: 26-26, +.5

Pending plays:
NBA Cleveland Series Play -500, Risk 30 to win 6 units
NBA Miami series play +145, risk 6 to win 8 units

5/7

My NBA plays:

Miami -5.5
Golden State -3.5

I like Miami tonight. If they're going to win the series, they need to take care of business at home. Lowry took care of business (ish) and got them the W but his confidence look shaky. I see him looking to pass when the game is on the line and Wade & Dragic are shooting very well.

I think Golden State takes the 3-0 lead here. Portland has to be so beat up after losing the last game after having the huge lead. The W's are just so good and Portland has hit their cap. The NBA showed us that they're fine with their superstar teams going up 3-0 and Steph or not, they take care of business here. The W's missed a lot last game.

Yesterday's (5/5) result (YTD):
My NBA plays: 1-1, -.6 (156-156-6, -54.4)
NBA playoffs: 27-27, -.1

Pending plays:
NBA Cleveland Series Play -500, Risk 30 to win 6 units
NBA Miami series play +145, risk 6 to win 8 units

5/8

My NBA plays:

Atlanta Hawks +5
Oklahoma City Thunder +1

I crashed and burned with the Hawks in Game 3 and unless the NBA has a plan for LBJ to drop 25 and a triple double or drop 40 himself and have mothers fall in love with him all across the US, I don't think 5 is even close to reasonable. They have to put the line here bc the public is still siding with them even with all this chalk. I believe the Hawks win this one. They lose in five, but this prideful bunch has one last hoorah before the team makes a move. It's in Atl and Cle still was getting great shots to fall last game. Atl was even in it til the late run, leading my 8 midway through the fourth. I'll catch the points here and I believe Atl will win outright.

Today is the day I roll with the dogs. While I do believe the Spurs will win this series, I love catching a point with the Thunder at home here. Russ was 10/30ish last game. That was the only true anomaly I saw and the Spurs shot the 3 ball really, really well and only won by 4. I truly believe the Thunder keep things interesting today and lose this thing in six. But, as shown in Game 2, OKC is still a fighting, focused, and scrappy bunch.

Yesterday's (5/7) result (YTD):
My NBA plays: 0-2, -7.2 (156-158-6, -61.6)
NBA playoffs: 27-29, -7.3

Pending plays:
NBA Cleveland Series Play -500, Risk 30 to win 6 units
NBA Miami series play +145, risk 6 to win 8 units

5/9

My NBA Play:

Miami -5.5 for 6 units

I'm sticking with Miami in this series. I thought they had to win last game but they certainly have to win this one. 6 players on the Heat went 0-12 from 3 point and Wade was the only guy to make any. Toronto's Lowry finally stepped up and I was on the other side .. Of course.. But I don't think he does it again quite like that here. He'll play better now but not like that. Dragic Johnson Deng need bigger games and Whiteside needs more involvement. I think the Heat win by double digits.

Yesterday's (5/8) result (YTD):
My NBA plays: 3-0, +18 (158-158-6, -49.6)
NBA playoffs: 30-29, +10.7

Pending plays:
NBA Miami series play +145, risk 6 to win 8 units

5/10 & 5/11

My NBA Plays (all for 5/10 & 5/11 may have more tomorrow):

5/10 San Antonio Spurs -7
5/11 Miami Heat +4.5

Charles Barkley said the smartest and most intuitive thing after the last OKC/Spurs game.. Yes. I know, I know. Lmao lmao. But in seriousness, he said something that holds water. "They're taking hero shots." When referencing KD and Russ. Spurs may win this in six. Spurs are still the team that won Game 1 by 30 and are 40-1 on their home floor. Laying this number isn't easy, but when you think a team will win the series, they need the game 5's at home. No one played all that good for SA last game, box score-wise, and TD was nonexistent. KD dropped 41 and I know Russ was shaky, but I don't think OKC can match that offense in Texas.

The Heat also have a chance to win their's in six. Regarding last night, I'd rather be lucky than good, thank you ref's. Btw - JV is out for Toronto. That's big. JV has been far more important to the Raps than Whiteside has been to the Heat. We're talking about an at least 15 ppg guy vs about a 6 ppg guy. I am going to stick with the Heat in this series and they absolutely have to win this one. Well, or six and seven - but I think they close this one out in 6 after pulling the upset. JV is out, guys. Look at some of these box scores and - if Whiteside plays.. Fuhgetaboutit. Heat/Cavs series will happen and the NBA will scratch and claw to do what it can to try to make it happen.

Yesterday's (5/9) result (YTD):
My NBA plays: 1-0, +6 (159-158-6, -43.6)
NBA playoffs: 31-29, +16.7

Pending plays:
NBA Miami series play +145, risk 6 to win 8 units

5/11

My NBA plays:

Miami +4.5 for 6 units (from yesterday's post)
Golden State -13.5 for 6 units

I was wrong about the Spurs - they may lose this series and keeping KD and Russ in the playoffs is cool with the NBA. My bad, Aldridge missed everything. I still stand by Miami though - D Wade vs LeBron.

As for Golden State.. Did you see OT? Warriors at home in an elimination game when Cleveland already finished their series. They got this. Portland is going to be a bit deflated and once you're down ten and not up 15, it's tough.

Yesterday's (5/10) result (YTD):
My NBA plays: 0-1, -6.6 (159-159-6, -50.2)
NBA playoffs: 31-30, +10.1

Pending plays:
NBA Miami series play +145, risk 6 to win 8 units

5/12 & 5/13

My NBA plays:

5/12 San Antonio -1.5 for 6 units
5/13 Miami -4.5 for 6 units

I've been on the Spurs and Miami bandwagons all series. I've played Toronto and OKC (I'm pretty sure) a combined two times. They're both down 2-3 and both are in jeopardy of losing their series's. I still believe there's a chance they both could come back. I could certainly be wrong - but I'm not ready to waive the white flag til that number says 4 wins for both opponents.

Spurs are a really good team and I just find it hard to believe this is how TD goes down. He wants a hero's good bye and deserves it. If they lose this and he stinks, I'm sure he'll come back off the bench. But - LaMarcus was soo unclutch last game and the last couple and I still don't quite buy OKC's lack of depth.

Miami... JV is out for Toronto and jeez Louise this series has been close all series. I can't say Lowry and I would get along if we chilled - at least for a little while, he seems nice. But he missed the FT in game 2 and nailed the 3 here in game 5. He's my betting nightmare this series. Anyway, I still think with JV out, Toronto doesn't have enough firepower to compete. I'll lay the number and expect this to go to seven as it appears to be destined to be with all the close finishes and overtimes.

Yesterday's (5/10) result (YTD):
My NBA plays: 0-2, -13.2 (159-161-6, -63.5)
NBA playoffs: 31-32, -3.1

Pending plays:
NBA Miami series play +145, risk 6 to win 8 units

5/15

My NBA plays:

Miami +4.5 for 6 units

Letting it ride, I still believe it's a coin flip Miami takes this series. I certainly didn't expect them to be down 3-2, but we're here now and I like Miami in the clutch more. Last game - Lowry and DeRozan played well and they couldn't keep it close. I know Dragic went off but I like a Miami team with Whiteside returning next series to face the Cavs and get toasted. I believe Cavs Warriors is happening.

Last two day's results: (5/11 & 5/12) (YTD):
My NBA plays: 1-1, -.6 (160-162-6, -64.1)
NBA playoffs: 32-33, -3.7

Pending plays:
NBA Miami series play +145, risk 6 to win 8 units

5/15's results: (YTD):
My NBA plays: 0-2, -12.6 (160-164-6, -76.7)
NBA playoffs: 32-35, -16.3

Hello all, thank you very very much for the continued support and thank you to Freak for the space to talk some good ol' sports. I'll be taking the rest of the season off and may be returning around football season time. My plan all along was to finish out the NBA season - wasn't sure if I meant regular or post - but I rolled along right into the playoffs for a bit. As the stages get bigger, the lines get sharper - never forget that - and a game on December 1st can win you just as much as Game 7 in the finals.

I really enjoyed posting and learning along the way and wish everyone the absolute best of luck! Keep on keeping on!

Best of luck to everyone - and an extra wish for Freak, GG, and Amos!