Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar Controlling the Boards The Limper NBA - 2019 Playoffs – Finals

During the regular season, in that first overtime loss to Toronto, Steph Curry didn’t play, but KD played out of his mind, scoring 51 pts on 58.1% shooting. Leonard shot even better, hitting 58.3% from the field and scoring 37. In the Raptors’ s blowout win in Oakland, Leonard didn’t play, but all the Warriors played turnover-city and never got close.

In the projection below, Cousins is IN, KD is OUT.

GLTA

System loves Toronto with KD out. Even had them SU tonight.

Cha Ching !

Some important digits for the game just ended: GOL turnovers 17, to 9 for TOR; GOL shot a pathetic 66% FT% to 95% for TOR (I can friggin shoot better than 66%! – or I could – quite some time ago – on good days- nevermind); GOL had a better FG%, outrebounded and had more assists than TOR; but while TOR had Serge Ibaca off the bench with 20 PTS, GOL only had Boogie Cousins with another wimpy showing – 6pts and 4 turnovers in 14 minutes. Also, in addition to leading all players with 36 pts and 12 boards, Kawhi Leonard also lead both teams with 4 steals and a block. Plays like a man among boys.

Drama. Drama. Drama. Will KD play, or won’t he? If he misses the game, the model has TOR by a wide margin. If he plays, according to my numbers, it’s a very close game, but TOR still has a slight edge. I’ll wait to post until tomorrow to see if anything firms up.

Even if KD plays, how much can he contribute. He isn't going to be 100% but some % of KD is better than none. It will force Leonard to guard him that will open up Curry and Thompson for cleaner looks than they've had.

The rub though is that it is a road game. Normal home games typically 3 points. But playoff games it's more like 5. In a closeout game like this, it is more like 6.5.

GS is going to need to play it's cleanest game of the playoffs, yes the playoffs if they hope to get back to Oracle for a game 6.

I really appreciate you following through with this even though at points you were frustrated with the results.

All models aren't perfect and this year in the NBA was like every other league out there. It was about offense.

Think back during the NFL season, all high scoring games all year round until we got to the Super Bowl. The NBA has been the same way... score score score. NHL the same exact thing. Look at MLB and all the HR's and wild scores we see daily.

It's all about entertainment and nobody wants to go see low scoring games. I think that's the main reason soccer hasn't taken off in the states as it does around the world. Nobody wants to go to a game that is 1-0 or ends in a draw.

Have you tinkered with WNBA or MLB at all, would be interesting to see what it comes up with. I'd be willing to look at it, if you wanted to share your model. But that's up to you.

Game 5 later tonight............

If KD plays or doesn’t, the model likes Toronto to win and cover. By my numbers if he DOES play, the Raptor’s MOV is just 1.9, and would flip the pick at a line of -2. The numbers below have Durant OUT.

GLTA

My buds at Number Fire were always after me to do MLB, but there’s too damn many players to track and WAY too many games to gather data. These days with autoloading software it would, admittedly, make it easier – but now I’m too friggin old – LOL.

Call me sexist, but the WNBA just doesn’t hold my interest, and I have to like the sport I track.

I’m strictly an NBA and NFL fan, although I do love me some Red Sox.

The NBA model did about average this year, but I liked nearly nailing the final score. Hope everybody did well this season. I’ll be back in September, because I’M READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!!!

WJCJR