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Zane Simon

Calvin Kattar by KO, round 2
Ryan Benoit via TKO, round 3
Jimmie Rivera by decision
Molly McCann by decision
Abdul Razak Alhassan via KO, round 1

Victor Rodriguez

Calvin Kattar by decision
Ryan Benoit via TKO, round 3
Jimmie Rivera by decision
Molly McCann by TKO
Abdul Razak Alhassan by TKO.

Jesse Holland

Kattar def. Ige by knockout
Elliott def. Benoit by submission

Patrick L. Stumberg

Parlay — Ricardo Ramos and Tim Elliott:
Parlay — Molly McCann and Jack Shore

125 lbs.na vs. Andreas Michailidis
145 lbs.: Jared Gordon vs. Chris Fishgold
125 lbs.: Diana Belbita vs. Liana Jojua
135 lbs.: Jack Shore vs. Aaron Phillips

The first fight scheduled for UFC Fight Island 1 will see Jack Shore take on Aaron Phillips. This will be a fight in the UFC Bantamweight division. Shore comes in as the biggest favorite of the night and riding high after winning his UFC debut in his most recent fight. Shore is now 12-0 in the MMA and will be looking to continue that streak to make a name for himself. What is most impressive about Shore so far is how balanced his fighting style is. He is landing an average of 3.58 significant strikes per minute and his striking accuracy is 50%. As for his striking defense, Shore absorbs just 0.47 significant strikes per minute. You could say he is even better at the ground game, where he averages 4.67 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same time period. His opponent, Aaron Phillips, will be returning to the UFC for the second time after having gone 0-2 in the top promotion way back in 2014. His MMA record is now 12-3 thanks to a 5-fight win streak, 4 of which were finished inside the distance. Phillips is still a weak striker, averaging just 1.87 significant strikes per minute. He absorbs 3.33 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of just 40%. Furthermore, he has a takedown defense of 35%, making this fight a huge uphill battle for him. Shore has finished 11 of his 12 fight inside the distance and there is no way Phillips should have a chance here. The money line for Shore is way too steep to play straight up, so including him in a parlay seems like the best option. One prop I do like is for Jack Shore to finish this fight inside the distance like he has done so many times in his career already.

The second fight at UFC Fight Island 1 will see Liana Jojua take on Diana Belbita. This will be a fight in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division. Belbita comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-5. She lost her UFC debut to Molly McCann by unanimous decision and will be looking to bounce back here. What Belbita does extremely well is stand up and fight. She is averaging 6.53 significant strikes per minute. That being said, her striking accuracy is only 38%. Also, she is absorbing 7.53 strikes per minute, which was a big reason why she lost to McCann. As for her takedowns, she averages just 1 per every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy is 100%, and her takedown defense is 64%. Her opponent, Liana Jojua, is 7-3 in the MMA, but is also coming off a loss in her UFC debut. Her loss was to Sarah Moras and came by TKO. Jojua is definitely not the greatest striker, averaging just 1.53 significant strikes per minute. She is more inclined to try an take this fight to the ground, where she averages 2.51 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Still, I cannot look past the striking ability from Belbita and I believe she will have her way with Jojua as long as the fight stays standing. Because these women are still a bit unknown to the UFC, it would be just a lean to Belbita, but I would consider throwing her into a parlay.

The third fight scheduled for UFC Fight Island 1 will see Jared Gordon take on Chris Fishgold. This will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Gordon comes in with a career MMA record of 15-4 and is the clear favorite in this fight. He is just 3-3 in the UFC after losing his last fight to Charles Olivera back in November of 2019. He is now 1-3 in his last 4 fights and likely must win this fight to avoid being dropped from the UFC. What Gordon has going for him is his excellent striking ability. he is averaging 6.26 significant strikes per minute and landing them at 54%. His striking defense is not terrible either, absorbing 3.90 strikes per minute. He has also shown the ability to fight on the ground, averaging 2.98 takedowns per every 15 minutes. The problem is his takedown accuracy is only 39%, so just about 2 of every 5 attempts actually land. His opponent, Chris Fishgold, enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-3-1. He is however, only 1-2 in the UFC after a recent loss to Makwan Amirkhani by submission. Unlike Gordon, Fishgold is not the greatest striker, averaging just 2.53 significant strikes per minute. The good news is he absorbs just 2.53 strikes, so he has done a good job at limiting damage done to him. His grappling game is a different story, where he lands an average of 4.55 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.5 submission attempts during the same time period. Overall, I like the striking ability from Gordon more than the grappling from Fishgold. This would be another fight where it would just be a lean, but I will take Gordon here to get the win.

The fourth fight at UFC Fight Island 1 will see Modestas Bukauskas take on Andreas Michailidis.na comes into this fight with a professional MMA record of 10-2.na has 9 total finishes in the MMA, 7 of which by either KO or TKO.na has seen 7 fights end in the first round and Michailidis has seen 9 of his fights end in the first round. That being said, the under 1.5 rounds is my play, but again, this would be a very small lean.

Our fifth fight on the UFC Fight Island 1 card will see Ricardo Ramos take on Lerone Murphy. This will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Ramos is the favorite coming in, posting an MMA record of 14-2. He is 5-1 in the UFC and is coming off back to back wins. Ramos is an average striker, landing 3.05 significant strikes per minute. The main concern with his striking, is his accuracy. He lands just 39% of his strikes, which is below average. To make up for his striking, Ramos averages 2.13 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 64% and a takedown defense of 75%. He also averages 0.7 submission attempts per every 15 minutes and has 7 wins by submission in his career. His opponent, Lerone Murphy, is undefeated in his MMA career, posting a record of 8-0-1. He made his UFC debut back in September of 2019, in which the fight ended in a draw. Murphy might have 5 wins by either KO or TKO, but his striking needs a lot of work. Averaging just 1.87 significant strikes per minute, Murphy also has an accuracy of 35%. The only positive is that he absorbs just 1.47 strikes per minute. Another concern is that Murphy’s takedown defense is only 25%. He was taken down 6 times in his UFC debut, and I am expecting more of the same here. While I do not love the price on Ramos, he is the only way I can lean based on his balanced fighting style.

The featured preliminary at UFC Fight Island 1 will see John Phillips take on Khamzat Chimaev. This will be a fight in the UFC Middleweight division. Chimaev is a huge favorite in this fight, despite having not fought in the UFC yet. He is 6-0 in his MMA career, so he will want to continue the unbeaten streak here. One impressive note is that Chimaev has finished all 6 of his fights inside the distance. He has 3 wins by submission and 3 by either KO or TKO. It is also worth pointing out that Chimaev has never seen a fight go to the third round because of his finishing ability. His opponent, John Phillips, is looking to get back on track in his career after recently struggling. He is 22-9 in the MMA, but only 1-3 in the UFC. He had lost 3 fights in a row in the top promotion until a KO win in his most recent fight snapped that streak. Part of the reason for Phillips struggles is that he only lands an average of 2.64 significant strikes per minute. Not only that but his striking accuracy is 34% and he is absorbing 5.01 strikes per minute. To make things even worse, he has a takedown defense of 14%, something that could cost him here in this bout. There is no way I want to back Phillips in this fight, based on his recent struggles. That said, Chimaev is laying a hefty price and for his first UFC fight, I do not want to lay that number. This is more than likely a stay away spot for me, but given that Chimaev has finished all his fights, it will be a lean to Chimaev getting the finish here in his UFC debut.

The first fight scheduled for the main card at UFC Fight Island 1 will see Abdul Razak Alhassan take on Mounir Lazzez. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Razak Alhassan is the massive favorite in this fight and comes in with an MMA record of 10-1. He is 4-1 in the UFC, but has not fought since 2018. That last fight was a KO win over Niko Price. In fact, Razak Alhassan has won all 10 of his fights by either KO or TKO. His one loss was a split decision so even then, it was an extremely close fight. He is averaging about 4.45 significant strikes per minute, but is absorbing the same amount. He does not tend to look for takedowns, averaging just 0.61 per every 15 minutes. His opponent, Mounir Lazzez, is 9-1 in the MMA and will be making his UFC debut in this fight. He also has seen majority of his fights end by KO or TKO, so I expect a stand up fight here. Knowing that this is the debut for Lazzez will keep me off of him even at a huge plus money price. I would likely stay away from this fight, but my lean would be on Razak Alhassan to win inside the distance.

The second fight scheduled for the main card at UFC Fight Island 1 will see Molly McCann take on Taila Santos. This will be a fight in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division. McCann is the small favorite as she comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-2. She is 3-1 in the UFC and is the #15 contender in the division. Since losing her UFC debut back in 2018, McCann has won three fights in a row. All three of these wins came by unanimous decision. McCann is an excellent striker, landing 6.49 significant strikes per minute. She also has a striking accuracy of 49%. Her takedowns are also a huge part of her fighting style as she averages 2.59 takedowns per every 15 minutes. In her most recent fight, she landed 5 takedowns against her opponent, a big reason why she was able to control the fight. Her opponent, Taila Santos, is 15-1 in the MMA, but lost her UFC debut back in February of 2019. Now 0-1 in the UFC, Santos is going to need a bounce back performance. Santos actually outstruck her opponent in her previous fight, but was taken down twice, likely leading to the split decision loss. Santos is now averaging 4.23 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 49%. She averages 1 takedown per every 15 minutes and has an accuracy of 100%. Even knowing that, I believe McCann’s striking ability is going to be too much for Santos, so I would take the McCann side here.

The third fight on the main card at UFC Fight Island 1 will see Jimmie Rivera take on Cody Stamann. This will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Rivera comes into this fight with an overall MMA record of 22-4. He is the #9 contender in the division and is 6-3 in the UFC. He has lost two fights in a row and three of his last four. His last loss was to Petr Yan (the new Bantamweight title holder). This was a loss by unanimous decision back in June of 2019. Rivera is known to have pretty solid striking, averaging 4.1 significant strikes per minute. He does however only land his strikes at 40%. In terms of his grappling, Rivera has mainly one thing going for him. That is his takedown defense, which sits at 95%. Stopping takedowns will be huge considering that Stamann loves to fight on the ground. Speaking of Cody Stamann, he enters this fight with an MMA record of 19-2-1. In the UFC, he is 5-1-1 and is the #10 contender in the featherweight division. He most recently beat Brian Kelleher at UFC 250. Against Kelleher, Stamann had 2 takedowns and out-struck him 89 to 57. He is now averaging 4.51 significant strikes per minute and landing them at an accuracy of 49%. His takedowns are just as impressive, where he averages 3.34 per every 15 minutes. Based on his balanced fighting, I like Stamann in his fight. Even though Rivera has insane takedown defense, I believe Stamann can counter that and will pick up the win here.

The C0-Main Event at UFC Fight Island 1 will see Tim Elliot take on Ryan Benoit. This will be a fight in the UFC Flyweight division. Elliot comes into this fight as the #12 ranked contender in the Flyweight division. He is 15-11-1 in his MMA career, but only 4-9 in the UFC. He most recently lost to Brandon Royval at UFC on ESPN 9. This was a loss by submission and marks his 3rd straight loss. Elliot has not won a fight since 2017 an another loss could see him get pushed out of the UFC. Elliot does have some decent striking, landing 3.41 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.53 strikes per minute. Where he excels more is his takedowns, averaging 4.53 per every 15 minutes. He lands these takedowns at an accuracy of 55%. He also averages 1.18 submissions per every 15 minutes, so look for a ground fight to be Elliot’s path to victory. As for his opponent, Ryan Benoit is 10-6 in his MMA career, but also has been struggling in the UFC, posting a record of 3-4. He recently returned from a long layoff, but still lost to Heili Alateng by split decision in December of 2019. This means his last win came back in 2017. Benoit is not the greatest striker, landing 2.8 significant strikes on average. He absorbs 3.18 strikes, so his defense could definitely improve. His takedowns are basically non-existent, averaging 0.2 per every 15 minutes at an accuracy of 16%. While both of these guys are clearly struggling, I like Elliot’s ability to take this fight to the ground, so it would be a lean to his side to get the much needed win.

The main event at UFC Fight Island 1 will see Calvin Kattar take on Dan Ige. This will be a fight in the UFC featherweight division. Calvin Kattar comes in as the massive favorite and is the #6 contender in the featherweight division. He is 21-4 overall in the MMA and 5-2 in the UFC. He most recently defeated Jeremy Stephens at UFC 249 by KO in the second round. Kattar is a very good striker, averaging 5.29 significant strikes per minute. The problem with that is he absorbs 6.46 strikes per minute. As for grappling, Kattar is not the best, averaging just 0.42 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is also only 28%, so do not expect Kattar to want to take this fight to the ground. What he does do well is defend takdeowns. Kattar has posted a takedown defense of 77%, a factor that will be key in this fight. His opponent, and the #10 contender in the division, Dan Ige, will be looking to extend his winning streak to 7 in this fight. He is 14-2 overall in the MMA and 6-1 in the UFC. Ige most recently beat Edson Barboza by split decision at UFC on ESPN 8. This was his second fight in a row where he won by split decision, so he needs to careful here, especially against a guy like Kattar. Ige lands about 4.14 significant strikes per minute and does so at an accuracy of 49%. He absorbs just 3.67 strikes, so his defense is solid as well. Where Ige really has the edge is on the ground. He averages 1.75 takedowns per every 15 minutes, as well as 0.19 submission attempts during the same time period. Overall, I believe that Ige is the more balanced fighter and his ability to fight on the ground will be the difference here. That said, it would only be a lean to Ige because of the power that Kattar has shown in his career.