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Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501415 11/08/20 05:56 AM
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Seattle coming across three time zones and facing Buffalo, but the reality is the Bills are not playing well lately, and that is not going to work against the Seahawks.
Plus, Seattle has already gone across three time zones once this season and picked up a win over Miami, going diagonally across the country to do so. If the Seahawks can win in south Florida against an improving Dolphins team, they can win in western New York

Statistical Advantages

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Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501416 11/08/20 05:57 AM
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CHICAGO BEARS VS. TENNESSEE TITANS

The Chicago Bears and the Tennessee Titans will both be gunning for a victory on Sunday when they meet at Nissan Stadium.

Oddsmakers opened the Titans as -6.5-point favorites versus the Bears, while the game's total opened at 46.

Last time out for Tennessee, they were a 31-20 loser as they battled the Bengals on the road. The Titans failed to cover in the match as a -7-point favorite, while 51 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors.

Chicago lost its last outing, a 26-23 result against the Saints on November 01. The Bears covered in that game as a +5-point underdog, while the 49 combined points took the game OVER the total.

Chicago:
Team record: 5-3 SU,5-3 ATS
Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games

Tennessee:
Team record: 5-2 SU,2-5 ATS
Tennessee is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Tennessee is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games

Next up:
Chicago home to Minnesota Monday, November 16
Tennessee home to Indianapolis Thursday, November 12

Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501417 11/08/20 05:57 AM
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POWER STATS

Yards Per Point
Name Offense Defense Differential
CHI 15.43 16.8 -1.36
TEN 13.7 15.1 -1.4

Yards Per Pass
Name Offense Defense Differential
CHI 8.91 10.21 -1.3
TEN 11.21 10.28 0.93

Yards Per Rush
Name Offense Defense Differential
CHI 3.81 4.3 -0.49
TEN 5.04 4.67 0.37

Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501418 11/08/20 05:58 AM
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BETTING ODDS TRENDS

Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Tennessee is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Chicago
Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
Tennessee is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Tennessee is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games


Chicago Bears
Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee

Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501419 11/08/20 06:00 AM
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Both the Titans and Bears started great this season but lug two-game losing streaks into Sunday afternoon’s inter-conference match-up in Nashville. Tennessee is 5-2, Chicago 5-3, but the Bears are covering point spreads, while the Titans, playing against heightened expectations, are not. The Titans are favored by one of those funny numbers in between three and seven.

Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501420 11/08/20 06:01 AM
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NFL Betting Odds
Week 9’s NFL betting odds opened Tennessee at around -6 over Chicago, with an over/under of 46.5. Early betting action then dipped that spread half a point, to -5.5.

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Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501421 11/08/20 06:02 AM
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Bears vs. Titans Betting Preview
After starting 5-1 this season, Chicago lugs a two-game losing skid into Sunday, after falling at home to New Orleans in overtime last week 26-23. The Bears led that game 13-3 late into the second quarter, trailed 23-13 early in the fourth but rallied for two scores to force OT. Chicago then lost the game on a Saints field goal on the third possession of overtime.

However, the Bears hung on to cover the spread as 5.5-point home dogs.

On the day, Chicago got out-gained by New Orleans 394-329, out-rushed 122-96, and lost the turnover battle 1-0, resulting in a -3 points differential. And that was basically the game.

The Bears have now been out-gained in each of their last five games and out-rushed each of their previous six.

Two weeks ago, Chicago lost to the Rams 24-10.

At 5-3 overall, the Bears trail the Rams by a head-to-head tie-breaker in the battle for the sixth and final NFC playoff spot.

Tennessee, meanwhile, following a 5-0 start to this season, also owns a two-game losing skid after falling at Cincinnati last week 31-20. The Titans fell down 10-0 early and trailed 17-7 at the half. They then gave up the first seven points out of the locker room and never fully recovered, going down to outright defeat as 7.5-point road favorites.

On the day, the Titans actually out-gained the Bengals 441-367 and won the ground battle 218-118. But they also committed the only turnover of the game, a terrible Ryan Tannehill interception on a first down from the Bengals’ 8-yard line in the first quarter, which kind of set a bad tone for the day.

Tennessee has now out-gained only three of its seven opponents this season, although it’s also out-rushed three of its last four foes.

Two weeks ago, the Titans fell down to Pittsburgh 27-7, rallied to within 27-24 but missed a field goal with 19 seconds left that would have forced overtime.
At 5-2 overall, Tennessee leads the AFC South by a tie-breaker over Indianapolis. If the playoffs started today, the Titans would host Baltimore for an AFC wild-card game.

These teams last met four seasons ago, a 27-21 Tennessee win at Soldier Field. But that’s already a long time ago for both these teams.

Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501422 11/08/20 06:02 AM
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NFL Betting Trends
Chicago QB Nick Foles is 29-25 SU, 23-30-1 ATS as an NFL starter.
Chicago is 25-15 SU, 21-19 ATS in two-plus seasons under Coach Nagy.
Tennessee 15-5 SU but only 8-11-1 ATS with Tannehill as the starter at QB.
Tennessee is 23-16 SU, 18-20-1 ATS in two-plus seasons under Coach Vrabel.
Home teams are 60-58 SU, 54-63 ATS in the NFL this season.
Favorites are 75-42 SU but only 49-67 ATS in the NFL this season.

Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501423 11/08/20 06:03 AM
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Totals Report
Unders are 5-3 in Bears games this season, which are averaging 41 total points against an average over/under of 44.

Overs are 5-1-1 in Titans games this season, which are averaging 56 total points against an average o/u of 49.

Overs are 63-54 in the NFL this season.

Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501424 11/08/20 06:05 AM
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Tennessee owns the edge on offense, but Chicago owns the better defense.
Also, five of the Bears’ eight games this season have been decided by four points or less, while five of the Titans’ seven games have been decided by six points or less.

Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501425 11/08/20 06:06 AM
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BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The fans at Lucas Oil Stadium will be treated to a game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Indianapolis Colts when they take their seats on Sunday.

Oddsmakers opened the Ravens as -4-point favorites versus the Colts, while the game's total opened at 44.

In their last action, Indianapolis was a 41-21 winner on the road against the Lions. They covered the -3.5-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (62) was profitable news for OVER bettors.

The Ravens were a 28-24 loser in their most recent outing at home against the Steelers. They failed to cover the -4-point spread as favorites, while the total score (52) made winners of OVER bettors.

Baltimore:
Team record: 5-2 SU,3-3-1 ATS
Baltimore is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games
Baltimore is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games

Indianapolis:
Team record: 5-2 SU,4-3 ATS
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Next up:
Baltimore at New England Sunday, November 15
Indianapolis at Tennessee Thursday, November 12

Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501426 11/08/20 06:06 AM
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POWER STATS

Yards Per Point
Name Offense Defense Differential
BAL 12.34 17.12 -4.77
IND 12.85 15.1 -2.25

Yards Per Pass
Name Offense Defense Differential
BAL 10.76 9.16 1.6
IND 11.28 10.38 0.9

Yards Per Rush
Name Offense Defense Differential
BAL 5.47 4.42 1.05
IND 3.48 3.41 0.07

Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501427 11/08/20 06:06 AM
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BETTING ODDS TRENDS

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Baltimore
Indianapolis is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games


Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games
Baltimore is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games
Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Indianapolis
Baltimore is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Baltimore is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis

Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501428 11/08/20 06:08 AM
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As the NFL season heads through the middle portion of the schedule, every win helps firm up playoff chances while every loss pushes a team back to the pack and less in control of their own fate. A couple of playoff contenders tangle in Indy this week as the Ravens take on the Colts, and there is quite a bit on the line as both teams enter at 5-2. Despite a loss to Pittsburgh last week, Baltimore still has a 75% chance to make the playoffs, and Indianapolis’ chances just shy of the 65% mark. If the Colts can pull the upset, they would likely swap positions with the Ravens and put the trendy AFC title hopeful in the WildCard mix. CoVid has found its way into the Baltimore locker room with eight Ravens added to the reserve list. Some of those out with CoVid are key defensive contributors, and those absences have brought this game to a near toss-up.

Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501429 11/08/20 06:09 AM
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Trend Watch
Baltimore is just 3-4 ATS on the season but enters this week with some strong trends, including a 10-3 ATS mark in the last thirteen against the AFC and a 6-2 record against the spread in their previous eight on the road. Their loss last week calls in one negative betting trend as the Ravens are 0-7 ATS immediately following a straight-up loss. Indianapolis has performed well against quality opponents, racking up a 12-4 ATS mark against teams over .500, but they are winless against the spread in their last five games as home underdogs. The over/under total may see a lot of action with two top-tier defenses in this game, and the Under has hit in five of the last six Baltimore games against an AFC opponent. The Under is 16-5 in the previous 21 games when Indy plays an opponent with a winning record. As of Wednesday, Baltimore is getting roughly 73% of the public money, with 68% of bets coming in on the Over.

Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501430 11/08/20 06:10 AM
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Who is In? Who is Out?
The story for Baltimore before we hit the field Sunday is the injury/illness list. On the injury front, the offensive line will be without starters, Ronnie Stanley and Tyre Phillips. Add in a questionable tag for Mark Ingram, and the league’s best rushing attack takes a hit. The defense has been hit hard by CoVid with five starters out for Sunday. CB Marlon Humphrey is the biggest name on that list, but LB Patrick Queen is also out, and he leads the team in tackles. In total, Baltimore will be without four of its top-six leading tacklers, and that group has contributed nine sacks. LBs Matt Judon and L.J. Fort and S DeShon Elliott are the other defensive starters put on the illness list. The Ravens still have Lamar Jackson, and that may be all that is necessary as he is on track to rush for just short of 1,000 yards this season and has thrown for 12 touchdowns so far. Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins have filled in well with Ingram missing time, but they face a tough challenge with Indy ranked 2nd in rush defense. Edwards leads the running backs with 305 yards, and Dobbins is averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Marquise Brown leads the pass catchers with 379 yards, and TE Mark Andrews has pulled down five touchdowns. This passing game lacks diversity and is ranked 31st in yards but can be effective when opponents commit too many defenders to stop the run.

Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501431 11/08/20 06:10 AM
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Old Man Rivers
After a 5-11 season with the Chargers, Philip Rivers was a big question mark in terms of what kind of value he was going to provide for the Colts. Rivers has exceeded most expectations by completing 69.7% of his passes, which would be a career-high if he can continue that through the remainder of the season. Like Drew Brees, Rivers is throwing short a lot, but he is averaging 8.1 yards per attempt, the fourth-highest YPA of his career, so he has been effective on deeper throws. The Colts running game ranks 25th in yards and could be without rookie Jonathan Taylor as he battles an ankle injury. Jordan Wilkins would start if Taylor is sidelined, with Nyheim Hines potentially seeing more carries alongside his receiving game duties. T.Y. Hilton is another question mark for Sunday as he is battling an iffy groin. Hilton leads with 22 catches and 251 yards but has yet to find the endzone. Zach Pascal and Marcus Johnson (20.6 YPR) would be the primary targets with Hilton out but don’t overlook the TE group as Rivers has hit Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox for four scores. The defense has been consistent and enters the week looking very strong with top-7 ranks in rushing, passing, and total yards while allowing the fifth-fewest points. Opposing QBs have managed a league-low average rating of 76 when facing the Colts, and the run defense is allowing just 3.4 yards per carry, good for 2nd in the league.

Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501432 11/08/20 06:13 AM
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The Colts are a good team, but their wins against the likes of the Jets and Bengals don’t exactly inspire confidence, and losses to the Jags and Browns make it look like they are much more of an average team than anything else. Baltimore has lost to the Chiefs and Steelers, and the argument can be made that those losses are actually better than any win that Indy has posted. The defensive losses for Baltimore will clearly impact this game, but Indianapolis has some injuries affecting their skill players, and the net effect there could come close to evening things out, at least close enough to let Lamar Jackson have a significant impact on the outcome. Even with one of the strongest statistical defenses, I don’t think the Colts will completely hold down the Ravens run game

Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501433 11/08/20 06:13 AM
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CAROLINA PANTHERS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The fans at Arrowhead Stadium will be treated to a game between the Carolina Panthers and the Kansas City Chiefs when they take their seats on Sunday.

Oddsmakers opened the Chiefs as -10.5-point favorites versus the Panthers, while the game's total opened at 49.

Last time out for Kansas City, they were a 35-9 winner as they battled the Jets at home. The Chiefs covered in the match as a -19.5-point favorite, while 44 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors.

Carolina:
Team record: 3-5 SU,4-4 ATS
Current Streak: lost 3 straight games.
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Carolina is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Carolina is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games

Kansas City:
Team record: 7-1 SU,6-2 ATS
Current Streak: won 3 straight games.
Kansas City is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games
Kansas City is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games

Next up:
Carolina home to Tampa Bay Sunday, November 15
Kansas City at Las Vegas Sunday, November 22

Re: 11/8 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #501434 11/08/20 06:14 AM
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POWER STATS

Yards Per Point
Name Offense Defense Differential
CAR 16.13 14.81 1.32
KC 12.98 18.11 -5.13
Yards Per Pass

Name Offense Defense Differential
CAR 10.83 9.35 1.48
KC 11.69 10.39 1.3

Yards Per Rush
Name Offense Defense Differential
CAR 4.38 4.69 -0.31
KC 4.51 4.8 -0.29

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