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 Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS)
Last week, the consensus G.O.A.T. in Tom Brady suffered the largest loss of his college or professional career as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were embarrassed on the national stage in a 38-3 blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints. Simply losing to the Saints was not necessarily a huge surprise, granted that many thought the Buccaneers would prevail. However, the awful performance to a division rival and the fact Tampa Bay was held to just 3 points with an all-star cast of talent on the offensive side of the ball; well, that is about as shocking as it gets. On Sunday, Tampa Bay looks to turn things around with a road trip to Charlotte to battle the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.
At first glance, this Sunday’s NFC South showdown between the Buccaneers and Panthers appears to be the perfect spot for the Buccaneers to rebound. The Panthers have dropped four straight games and have surpassed the Falcons for last place in the division. However, the Panthers have been extremely competitive despite the four straight losses. In fact, Carolina took Kansas City down to the wire in last week’s 33-31 loss. In my opinion, Head Coach Matt Rhule has done a phenomenal job in his debut season despite numerous injuries and an inferior group of talent. As a result, it would not be surprising to see the Panthers contend for the victory in this game, especially if Tampa Bay matches their performance from last Sunday.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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RB Christian McCaffrey listed as doubtful against Tampa Bay
Last week, All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey returned to the field for the first time since week 2. The Panthers standout was sidelined for several weeks with an ankle injury. McCaffrey’s presence provides an immediate boost to Carolina’s offense, which could be seen in their ability to rack up 31 points against the defending Super Bowl Champions. Unfortunately, McCaffrey suffered a shoulder injury and is reportedly getting 2nd opinion evaluations on the severity. As a result, McCaffrey is expected to be out again on Sunday, and the team is uncertain around the projected length of his absence.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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Tampa Bay vs. Carolina Betting Analysis
Though the Panthers will miss running back Christian McCaffrey’s presence, Head Coach Matt Rhule has done a really good job of sustaining a sound offense in his absence. Backup running back Mike Davis has been solid, and the team has also used WR Curtis Samuel in creative ways, including backfield touches. Furthermore, QB Teddy Bridgewater has played well despite a slightly concerning interception total (6). Still, Bridgewater is completing 72% passing and has been able to stretch the field to receivers, Robby Anderson and DJ Moore. Simply put, this Panthers offense has been efficient and effective.
Tampa Bay has one of the better defenses in the league, but if there is a weakness, it comes in the secondary. We saw the Saints shine a light on the pass defense concerns last week, and stylistically this match-up could favor the Panthers finesse passing scheme. Ultimately, the focus will still be on the other side of the ball where Brady and company attempt to rebound. When you consider the receiving cast of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown, there should be no excuses in passing targets. Brady was awful against the Saints with three interceptions, but we should not expect that trend to continue. Historically, Brady has bounced back after poor performances. Still, I’m not convinced a better performance will be enough. The Buccaneers offense lacks a narrative, and I also believe Bruce Arians was completely out-coached last week. I would not be surprised to see a similar result this week.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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Tampa Bay vs Carolina Betting Trends
Tampa Bay are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
Tampa Bay are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against Carolina
Tampa Bay has hit the “over” in 14 of the last 20 games
Carolina are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games
Carolina is just 1-7 SU in the last 8 games at home
The “under” has cashed in 6 of the last 9 meetings between Tampa Bay and Carolina
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS
The Los Angeles Chargers and the Miami Dolphins will both be trying to pick up a win on Sunday when they battle at Hard Rock Stadium.
Oddsmakers opened the Dolphins as -3-point favorites versus the Chargers, while the game's total opened at 47.
Miami won its last outing, a 34-31 result against the Cardinals on November 08. The Dolphins covered in that game as a +6-point underdog, while the 65 combined points took the game OVER the total.
Last time out for Los Angeles, they were a 31-26 loser as they battled the Raiders at home. The Chargers failed to cover in the match as a +1-point underdog, while 57 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors.
Los Angeles:
Team record: 2-6 SU,4-3-1 ATS
LA Chargers is 8-15-2 ATS in its last 25 games
LA Chargers is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
Miami:
Team record: 5-3 SU,6-2 ATS
Current Streak: won 4 straight games.
Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Next up:
Los Angeles home to New York Sunday, November 22
Miami at Denver Sunday, November 22
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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POWER STATS
Yards Per Point
Name Offense Defense Differential
LAC 16.39 13.28 3.11
MIA 11.64 19.09 -7.46
Yards Per Pass
Name Offense Defense Differential
LAC 11.49 10.22 1.27
MIA 10.5 10.87 -0.37
Yards Per Rush
Name Offense Defense Differential
LAC 4.14 4.93 -0.79
MIA 3.61 4.9 -1.29
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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BETTING ODDS TRENDS
Miami Dolphins
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Miami is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing LA Chargers
Miami is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Miami's last 16 games when playing LA Chargers
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Miami is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 8-15-2 ATS in its last 25 games
LA Chargers is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
LA Chargers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games on the road
LA Chargers is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Miami
LA Chargers is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of LA Chargers's last 16 games when playing Miami
LA Chargers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
LA Chargers is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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The Miami Dolphins have shaken off a 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS start to the season to go 4-0 SU and ATS over their last four games, surging into playoff contention in the process. The Dolphins will look to stay hot Sunday when they host the Los Angeles Chargers in what should be an exciting battle between two rookie quarterbacks.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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Opening Odds Analysis
The Dolphins opened as 3-point favorites and have since been bet down slightly to Miami -2.5 at home. The total has also moved slightly as early action on the opening line of 47 points has moved the current total up to 48 points. The UNDER is 5-0 in the Chargers’ last five road games in Miami.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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Los Angeles News & Notes
The Chargers suffered yet another heartbreaking loss last Sunday against the Las Vegas Raiders. Justin Herbert had another strong game as he completed 28 of his 42 pass attempts for 326 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and no interceptions.
But on the final drive of the game, Herbert led the Chargers down to a first-and-goal on the Raiders’ four-yard line before failing to convert the field position into a touchdown. Los Angeles lost 31-26 as a 1-point underdog and fell to 1-6 SU over its last seven games.
Herbert now has 15 touchdown passes and only three interceptions over his last five games. Los Angeles has been extremely competitive with Herbert under center as their six losses have all come by less than seven points and by an average of only four points. Giving up 31.8 points per game on defense over the team’s last five games has doomed the Chargers to a 1-4 SU record over that stretch.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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Miami News & Notes
Tua Tagovailoa shined in Miami’s 34-31 win over the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday, going 20-for-28 for 248 passing yards with two passing touchdowns and no interceptions. Miami improved to 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS with the win despite being a betting underdog in all but one of its games this season.
With Tagovailoa under center and the team playing so well overall, expect to see the Dolphins going off as favorites more often over the second half of the season.
The Dolphins are averaging an impressive 30.1 points per game over their last seven games. Brian Flores has done an incredible job turning this Dolphins team into a playoff contender in such a short period of time, exceeding expectations with a 5-11 SU campaign last year and doing so again in 2020.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa have both looked great in their rookie campaigns and the future appears to be bright for both of these teams. Look for these two quarterbacks to put on a show
Los Angeles is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games vs Miami.
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home games.
The OVER is 5-0 in Los Angeles’s last 5 games.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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DENVER BRONCOS VS. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Divisional bragging rights will be on the line on Sunday when the Denver Broncos and the Las Vegas Raiders meet at Allegiant Stadium.
Oddsmakers opened the Raiders as -3.5-point favorites versus the Broncos, while the game's total opened at 51.
Las Vegas won its last outing, a 31-26 result against the Chargers on November 08. The Raiders covered in that game as a -1-point favorite, while the 57 combined points took the game OVER the total.
Denver lost its last outing, a 34-27 result against the Falcons on November 08. The Broncos failed to cover in that game as a +4.5-point underdog, while the 61 combined points took the game OVER the total.
Denver:
Team record: 3-5 SU,5-3 ATS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Denver is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Las Vegas:
Team record: 5-3 SU,5-3 ATS
Las Vegas is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Las Vegas's last 8 games
Las Vegas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Next up:
Denver home to Miami Sunday, November 22
Las Vegas home to Kansas City Sunday, November 22
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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POWER STATS
Yards Per Point
Name Offense Defense Differential
DEN 15.48 13.28 2.19
LV 13.63 13.46 0.16
Yards Per Pass
Name Offense Defense Differential
DEN 10.59 9.73 0.86
LV 10.68 11.62 -0.94
Yards Per Rush
Name Offense Defense Differential
DEN 4.33 4.31 0.02
LV 4.35 4.53 -0.18
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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BETTING ODDS TRENDS
Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Las Vegas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games at home
Las Vegas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Las Vegas is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing Denver
Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Las Vegas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Las Vegas is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Las Vegas's last 8 games
Denver Broncos
Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Denver is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
Denver is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
Denver is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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The Las Vegas Raiders will look to extend their winning streak to three games but win for the first time in three at home on Sunday when they host the Denver Broncos as solid favorites at Allegiant Stadium. The Raiders are playing the second of three consecutive divisional games while the Broncos are away from home for the second straight week following a 34-27 loss to the Atlanta Falcons as 4.5-point underdogs.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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Opening Odds Analysis
The point spread has already jumped as high as Las Vegas -5.5 with the total up to 52 at some sportsbooks . While most situational totals trends seemingly favor the UNDER in this spot, it is very hard to ignore the ability of both teams to essentially score at will on their opponents lately. The Raiders have also lost two straight at home, but the opponents who beat them there are a combined 13-5.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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Denver News & Notes
Denver had won three of four before falling at Atlanta last Sunday, although none of the victories during that stretch was particularly impressive. The Broncos rallied back from a 24-3 deficit to stun the Los Angeles Chargers two weeks ago in a 31-30 victory as 3-point home underdogs, scoring 21 points in the fourth quarter to pull off the upset.
Then last week, Denver again tallied 21 in the fourth but came up short by a touchdown after giving up one late. Quarterback Drew Lock threw a costly interception, and he must avoid key turnovers in the clutch if the Broncos are going to take the next step. It would also help if the running backs totaled more than the 41 yards on 14 carries they amassed in that game.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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Las Vegas News & Notes
Las Vegas has performed well vs Denver lately, winning three of the past five meetings straight up and covering the spread in each of those games, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database.
As well, the two losses were both by one point, including a 16-15 setback as a 4.5-point road underdog in last year’s regular-season finale. It is also worth noting all those games fell UNDER the total, and extending this particular trend may be tough here based on how well the offenses for the Raiders and Broncos are playing right now.
Las Vegas did come up huge defensively last Sunday at SoFi Stadium, holding on for a 31-26 win and covering the spread as a 1-point road favorite against Los Angeles. Despite their recent home woes, the Raiders have won three straight on the road.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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Early betting has seen this total hit as high as 52, so consider that before jumping on this number. Weather will not be a factor either since this one will be played indoors, although these teams simply have not scored much against each other over the past three seasons. You have to go back to 2016 to find the last time they combined for 50 points, and that was the only time in 10 meetings.
The Raiders are 5-0 ATS in the past 5 meetings with the Broncos.
The OVER is 7-1 in Las Vegas’ last 8 games.
The Broncos are 2-12 SU in their last 14 road games vs teams with winning records.
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