Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar First and Goal The Limper Line – NFL – Week 10

This past week, the model did pretty well, and brought its ATS record up to 50% from Week 4 – the first week it ended using last year’s data. The biggest problem this year has been massaging out all the home-field advantages, which have become largely irrelevant. It has been an integral part of the Limper’s algorithm for decades, and removing its traces is an on-going effort. HFA had been declining in recent years anyway, but this season – thanks mainly, IMO, to crowd disappearance due to Covid 19 – it has fallen off the map entirely. Home teams, straight-up, are now winning at a pathetic 49.2% SU!! with Road Dogs hitting at a huge 58.3% ATS rate. Of course, even 50% ATS is hardly an indication of reliability, but I’m hopeful the model will continue to trend upward.

GLTA