Home Forums Sports Picks Central Bet The House 1/21 Bet The House

Thursday Action............

Bet the Prop:
10:27
@channel #picks Elfrid Payton (NYK) U21.5 PRA, -113 FD, -114 PB
Pretty sure he just we need to just keep going back to the well here until they start adjusting the number, or the Knicks start giving Elf his usage back.
You can see how his USG% has really dried up over the last four while rookie IQ's USG has exploded into the 90th percentile (the orange heat bar is their percentile USG rank by position).
Under-friendly 215 total against GSW
GSW has a -6.8 Deff vs PGs, 5th best
Knicks last in poss/game (98.9)
Elf going under his PRA line line at a 69.2% clip, nice

BET the Prop (NFL Prop for the weekend... if waiting till weekend to bet on this, odds may have changed considerably.

Tyreek Hill (KC) O5.5 Receptions, -134 DK, -143 PB
The point total of 54.5 suggests a shootout, and that's Tyreek country. He had 8 on 10 targets against Cleveland last week in a game that was much slower than this projects to be. The Bills team total is 26; they're a relentless passing machine, so KC is going to need to score.
I'm not worried about White shadowing Hill, as Reid moves him all over the formation and they're more than happy to give him a couple easy passes in space.

Just joined the forum yesterday, should I continue to post the premium "Bet the Prop" selections when they come out?

Montreal -120

NCAAB

5:00 PM Southern Cal - 5 over Stanford

9:00 PM Pepperdine - 3 over Pacific

9:00 PM Arizona State + 2 1/2 over Arizona

10:00 PM San Francisco - 4 over Santa Clara

Atletico Madrid -0.5 -130

from Bet the Prop:
Josh Allen > Tom Brady Pass Yds, -135 PB
Allen has a line of 305.5 on the builder, Brady is at 287.5 and Rodgers is at 285.5.. However, Allen is only -135 vs Brady but -213 vs Rodgers so this looks like a clear misprice to me.
Brady is going into Lambeau against a very good pass D with a potential snow game in the forecast. On the season, the Packers rank 9th in passing yards allowed (233.35)
KC/BUF game looks like it's going to have better weather and we know how much BUF loves to sling it with Josh Allen so another 35+ pass attempts game should be in the cards. Allen has 12 games on the year with 35+ atts and in those games, hes averaging 318.2 ypg
Alt Lines:
Rodgers > Brady Pass Yds, +127 Propbuilder
Tom Brady Under 289.5 Pass Yds, -112 DK

Rutgers -3. I think Penn St. stinks.

Flyers

Memphis -3.5
Washington State +3

NHL Parlay

Boston -150 with Tampa Bay -165

@ Intertops

+174

Phoenix suns
Spurs

NCAAB - memohis

Iowa -10
TB -150

NBA Actions 1/21/21

BetOnline.ag

5 Unit Play
523 Los Angeles Lakers +1½ (-113)

From Bet the Prop:
Lou Williams (LAC) U17.5 PRA, -110 DK, -123 Prop Builder
Good to 16.5
Mikal Bridges (PHX) > Lou Williams PRA, -143
Wild line on Lou here. He's been pretty bad all year (12.8 avg; median PRA of 10)
He's battling a hip, and in his first game back after missing a week, he had 8 PRA in 15 minutes.
Seasonal average of 18.6 minutes, and between the hip and the huge blowout potential here (-13 LAC), it's unlikely he approaches 19 minutes
Bridges' demonstrated floor this year is 13-15 PRA
He's averaging 21.8, but even his floor might be an optimistic mark for Lou, who's early projection is 11.4 PRA on 6.2 minutes

Bet the Prop - Free Pick
Eric Gordon (HOU) o19.5 points

Bet the Prop:
Victor Oladipo (HOU) O5.5 assists -133 (DK)
Deandre Ayton (PHX) O15.5 Points -118 (FD)

&

Serge Ibaka U21.5 PRA, -125 PB
Good to 20.5
This is about Ibaka for sure:
Avg 19; median 17; projection 19.2
Has gone under is PRA total 87.5% of the time, doing so by an avg of -5.1 PRA
But it's also about it's also about 7-footer Ivaca Zubac.
PG and Lue have been talking him up, and in their last game (a blowout), Zubac had a stretch of almost 11 consecutive minutes in the 1st half and then almost 12 in the 2nd. He was +11 in that stretch.
They want to get him more time, and a -13 game seems like a good time.

Bet the Prop:

Josh Okogie (MIN) U4.5 Rebounds, -121 DK
Averaging 3.6 in 24.3 mins per game. Missed this
line in 4 of 6 this season, including the last matchup against the Hawks (2 boards) a few days ago. He’s still carrying a hamstring niggle this week, which is another plus. Hunter questionable is the only concern, but I still like it.

NBA

BetOnline

5 Unit Play
539 Brooklyn Nets -6 -113