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1/23/2021

NBA

Deandre Ayton O16.5 Points, -116 FD, good to -125 at PB

Booker left last night's game in overtime and is out, so that opens up even more usage for Ayton, who's already averaging 24 points over his last 3, including 27 last night against these Nuggets (OT)

1/23/2021

NBA

Josh Okogie (MIN) U14.5 PRA, +100 PB, -103 DK/FD/Pinny

Also U15.5 if you Bovada.
Under this in 5 of his last 6 as he battles a hammy, which probably didn't get a lot better overnight -- he had 5 PRA in 19 minutes in a blowout loss to Atlanta.
More blowout potential here vs the Pels, who opened -7.5 and have been steamed to -9.5. Okogie's matchup against Brandon Ingram is not difficult, but on the whole, the Pels play slow and are allowing the 2nd-fewest team rebounds.
Okogie with an 11.1 average on the year and a median of 10. ETR projecting 13.6 (and those assume Russell out)

Bet the Prop picks...

1/24/2021

NBA

Patrick Beverley (LAC) U16.5 PRA, -121 DK, -126 Pinny
Good to 16; half unit at 15.5
Under this in 11/15
Median 14; avg 14.4
OKC is terrible, but SGA has been solid on defense
vs PGs, OKC gives up the 5th-fewest PRA/min
Their -7.1 Deff (defensive efficiency) is 6th-best vs PGs
Both teams play pretty slow, middling total of 221

Carmelo Anthony (POR) U19.5 PRA, -118 FD, -123 PB
Good to 19; half unit at 18.5.
Careful on the Builder, as there are two C. Anthony's with the same 19.5 line.
This one hits pretty much every indicator Im looking for:
Projection (16.6)
Pace
Carmelo over this number just once in his last 8; median result of 15
All players vs the Knicks are going under their PRA prop 59% of the time
PFs facing the Knicks are going under 67% of the time
NYK have a Deff of -14.6 vs PFs -- 5th best out of 150 potential matchups

Tristan Thompson (BOS) U16.5 PRA, -114 PB,DK

Isaiah Roby (OKC) > Kelly Olynyk (MIA) PRA, -102 PB
Alt play Olynyk U19.5 PRA
Matchups heavily favor Roby
36% gap in average projections

Anthony Davis (LAL) O23.5 Points -120 (DK)

All the quotes we want to hear for a player that is more than capable of surpassing this number. Vogel has said the team has a paint first mindset, wants to make sure the team plays through AD, and that the focus of the road trip is to get AD more looks.

This comes after Davis spoke about how he has been sucking recently, and against Chicago the Lakers got Davis going with 37 points. Like it up to 24.5

Nicolas Batum (LAC) > Bojan Bogdanovic (UTA) PRA, -112 Propbuilder

Alt plays: Bogdanovic U20.5 -111 PB... and to a lesser degree, Batum At Least 20 on PB

Batum is in for a big bump with Kawhi, PG, and Beverly all ruled out in a fast/good matchup with ATL.
Hard to trust Batum completely, so we like leveraging it against Bojan, who has a difficult matchup against the plodding Knicks.
NYK allowing .62 PRA/min to PF, best in the league.

Tyler Bertuzzi o1.5 Shots on Goal (-143 @ PB)

-148 at DK is fine, also. Wouldn’t go past -150 if it moves there, though.

He’s gone over this total in 5 of 6 games this year.
In a small sample DAL has let 4-of-5 guys go over on their totals.
It appears that this number hasn’t been adjusted yet for Bertuzzi’s 2021 role.
With all of these NHL plays, we’re suggesting (and I’m playing) .25u since we’re still feeling out the market.
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Nathan MacKinnon (COL) u4.5 Shots on Goal (-114 @ PB)
Playable to -143

This is an unplayable line on DK because they put it at 3.5. But so far this year, when PB is a shot higher than DK the under is hitting about 60% of the time (and they’re usually juiced like crazy).
MacKinnon is 2-4 against this line so far this season and has only hit the overs in plus matchups.
This is not a plus-matchup. SJ has only let 3-of-10 guys go over their total this season.
Last year, MacKinnon went under this total about two-thirds of the time.

Luke Kennard (LAC) U24.5 PRA, -114 PB, -120 FD

We mentioned all the guys out for LAC, but this just very optimistic for Kennard, who hasn't even hit 20 PRA this year. 14.5% gap to projections.

It's early for bets on the SuperBowl, but here is a (limited time probably) good one...

Darrel Williams (KC) U40.5 RushYds, -114 Propbuilder, U41.5 -135 PointsBet
Good to 38.5.
Already seeing this down at 34.5 at some places, so gotta take it.
CEH is expected back which probably cuts into DWill's rushing load quite a bit. Early projections suggest it might be even more than that, with 4for4's early outlook giving DWill 4.7 for 19.5 yards, and CEH 7.1 for 28. Lev Bell will also play. He doesn't move the needle much but is good for a few stolen snaps.
TB still the best run D in the league, and KC hasn't shown much interest in the run game anyway.

Montrezl Harrell (LAL) U21.5 PRA, -123 Propbuilder

Check for some more 21.5 out there. Half unit at 20.5
Looks a little thin by seasonal averages (21.8) and median (21), but Embiid is off the injury report, and the 76ers are a nightmare matchup:
Centers facing PHI have an efficiency rating of -16.5, the 4th most difficult matchup of 150 potential matchups (Pos x Opp)
They allow .74 PRA/min to opposing Cs, 3rd fewest
Montrezl has gone under his PRA line 75% of the time
Cs facing Philly have gone under their PRA line 83.3% of the time, doing so by an average of -3.3 :point_down:

Kevin Durant > James Harden PRA, -118 Prop Builder
Alt: Durant O38.5 PRA, good to 39.5
KD's carried the bigger load with all the Big 3 active. Harden averaging 35 PRA over his last four; KD averaging 45 in his last 3
11.5% gap in projections.

Josh Jackson (DET) U17.5 PRA, -110 DK, -122 FD

U16.5 is ok at Bookmaker/B365
In 9 games since returning from an ankle injury, Jackson's averaging 12.1 PRA
He's gone over this number once in that stretch
He hasn't typically been a starter and he won't start to night -- in fact the return of Derrick Rose bumps him further down the order
On recorded lines, Jackson is 3-0 to his PRA under on the year, going under by an average of -6.8

Tyreek Hill (KC) O6.5 Receptions, -106 FD, -114 Propbuilder
Good to -130. Play at 7 (push for you, win for the rest is ok). Pass at 7.5.
Gotta get the overs in early! The Super Bowl over steam will be at all-time levels this year. I predict this one closes at 8 or 8.5! Gonna be insane, I'm telling ya.
Look, it's not the o5.5 rec we got last week, but it'll do. We're actually getting more support from projections here (7.2) than I would've anticipated tbh
TB remains a pass funnel, and though it was a weird game with some guys missing, Hill had his signature game of the year against the Bucs in Week with 269 yards and 3 TDs on 15 targets.
He's averaging 8.5 rec on 10.5 targets in the playoffs.

Christian Wood (HOU) > John Wall (HOU), PRA, -118 PropBuilder
Alt Play : Wall U32.5 PRA, -110 DK/FD
It's possible Wood gets a minutes bump tonight (after 20 & 24 the last 2 games off injury), but this number assumes it.
Fwiw the sharper markets think this number is awful -- the more liquid and mature Pinnacle already has this at 29.5 -- a massive gap we rarely see that should inform our decision.
Even if we're wrong, and Wall gets normal minutes (fyi ETR is projecting him for 25 PRA on 24 mins), Wood has been seeing massive usage. He was averaging 40.4 PRA in his previous four games before missing a few with an ankle injury -- he practiced in full Wed and declared himself 100%.
His usage actually sees a slight uptick with Wall on the floor, so Wall's presence doesn't hurt us, and any minutes restrictions is a bonus.

Aleksander Barkov (FLA) o2.5 Shots (-125)
I wouldn’t go past -140
Barkov is 3-0 against this line so far this season
Columbus has let 14-of-21 guys go over their totals this year
Total for the game is 6.5.

Are there people here that use Bet the Prop's data? I am happy to keep posting these as soon as they are released, as I have a sub with them; I just wondered if people are seeing/using any of these. Thanks!

Draymond Green (GSW) U7.5 points, -121 DK
Averaging just 5.1 points and missing this line 11
of 14 games this season. Suns are also one of the best teams in the NBA for points allowed (6th). On the road and with Warriors having a full list of players to choose from on offense, think Draymond may continue his trend in this one.

Playing Zach Werenski o2.5 (-114 @ PB or -112 @ DK)
playable to -130
So far this year he’s 4-4 against this line but this looks like the easiest matchup he’s faced so far
should be on PP1 again
Again, only playing .25u here as we’re still feeling everything out but this is my favorite play of the game (only one game in the NHL tonight because…???…idk why