1 Unit:
(1) St.Louis(Morris)-1.5 Runs{-109} Over Cincinnati(Bong)------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/2 Unit:
(2)St.Louis(Morris)/Cicinnati(Bong) Over 9.5 {-115}with
New York Yankees(Contreras)/Los Angeles(Lima) Over 8.5 (would pass on 9)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Three team parlay for 20:
(3) St.Louis(Morris)-215 Over Cicinnati(Bong)with
Chicago Cubs(Zambrano)-139 Over Oakland(Zito)with
New York Yankees(Contreras)/Los Angeles(Lima) Over 8.5 (would pass on 9)
Then will hedge off on the late game with a lean towards the
Over(despite the good pens)
<img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="images/icons/wink.gif" />
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
There a lot of reasons why I like St.Louis today.Bong is 0-2 allowing 8 Er's in 9.1 innings. 3 HR's and 13 runs. 7 BB's.
Bong has a 5.60 Era Lifetime.
St.Louis has the hitting advantage Right vs. Left for the season, home away
and the last 10.
Cincinnati 260/256/249
St.Louis...281/306/303
Morris does have 7 Quality starts. He's 7-7 Overall.
St.Louis is 8-2 their last 10.
St.Louis is 6th in Hitting Overall
St.Louis is 4th vs. Lefties
St.Louis is 8-5 vs. Lefties
St.Louis is averaging 9.3 runs and 303 vs. Lefties their last 10.
St.Louis Bull Pen has allowed 7 Er's the last 25.2
Cincinnati is 3-7 their last 10 and 4-9 their last 13.
Cincinnati 10-13 vs. Righties Away
Cincinnati 21st vs. Righies with .259
Cincinnati Bull Pen has allowed 28 Er's the last 26.2
Lean towards the Over 9.5
For one, Cincinnati is on a 11-3 Over Run.
Cincinnati the last 8 games has allowed an average of 9.6 runs.
Bong two games averaged 12.5
Morris games average 10.5 and 12 the last 3.
Have edges across the board(Starter,Hitting,Pen)
If it keeps form shouldn't be close.
Am counting on St.Louis to get to Bong because their tough vs.Lefties
and are facing a struggling bull pen.
Wagering the Over on the thinking that if St.Louis does lose, then it will be
because Cincinnati got to Morris rather than Bong having a great game.
Something that possible, but not that probable considering how well
the Cardinals are hitting Lefties.
Still no game is written in stone. Anything can and does happen.
As yesterday's Oakland/Chicago demonstrated. The Cubs scoring
2 in the bottom of the 9th to defeat Oakland and the Under bettors.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Yesterday after going 1-2 on the first 3 Parlay's, felt confident enough
in San Diego to let the NY Yankee parlay ride. That off set the lose a bit.
In fact, the profit was +38.82 meaning just a -1.18 lost on the first 3 parlays.
Unfortunately, Willis, Radke and Clemens all lost.
All 3 have generally been pitching well.
Since I've been struggling a bit, am playing somewhat close to the vest
and making small wagers til things start to go better.
So even those 3 losses amount to just sligthly Over a 1/2 Unit.
Not too big a hit.
Have only met one person who seem to like to lose or at least didn't seem to mind.
Have yet to meet any that liked losing money.
"You haven't met people til you lose them their money."
Sports betting is a tough gig. Baseball is a streaky affair.
A bettor has to be patient and use good money management to weather bad times.
I always take a wait and see attitude. You just never know what's going to happen
in baseball. But there are strong tendencies and teams, pitchers and hitters
get hot and cold.
This season started out with a large number of inexperience starting catchers.
It seems like a lot of bull pens are blowing leads more often than usual.
Wonder if there's any correlation? Bettors that tend to rely on
Starter matchups primarily may be suffering more losses than usual.
Will just keep plugging away and see how the chips fell when the dust has settled.
good luck today,baz
<img border="0" title="" alt="[Smile]" src="images/icons/smile.gif" />
<small>[ June 20, 2004, 07:32 AM: Message edited by: bazanster2 ]</small>
