COLUMN: Richard Eng


Don't be surprised if Peace Rules rules





Finding the Kentucky Derby winner is like trying to predict which college quarterback could win a Super Bowl. All are superb athletes with gaudy statistics, but the winner is great in his heart and head. The ultimate test comes when all the chips are on the table.

Trainer Bobby Frankel seems to hold the keys to the Derby in Empire Maker and Peace Rules. Here are my picks for Saturday's 129th Kentucky Derby:

• PEACE RULES (8-1) -- The Toyota Blue Grass and Louisiana Derby winner makes his third start off a 10-week hiatus. Frankel has this colt in perfect shape and with a solid foundation built upon turf racing as a 2-year-old.

Frankel showed me gumption when he bypassed a soft race in the El Camino Real Derby in early March to go after division leaders Badge of Silver and Kafwain at the Fair Grounds. I'm convinced this colt will rate kindly and finish well for Edgar Prado, one of the most underrated big-race riders in America.

• EMPIRE MAKER (6-5) -- The best Derby bet in Las Vegas may be a Frankel-trained house quinella. It is hard to argue against grade 1 wins in the Wood Memorial and Florida Derby. The son of Unbridled is the shortest-priced morning-line favorite since Arazi in 1992.

Empire Maker has the best distance pedigree in the field and has won two straight 1 1/8-mile stakes. Rider Jerry Bailey is in the Hall of Fame.

What are the shortcomings? For one, price. At 6-5 versus 8-1, the Frankel colts are far apart in odds but much closer in ability.

• BRANCUSI (30-1) -- If I could compare him to a prior Derby winner, it would be Alysheba, who also went into the Derby with tons of potential but only one lifetime win.

One big difference will be the rider. Tony Farina is no Chris McCarron, Alysheba's rider in 1987. But substitute a John Velazquez or a Victor Espinoza, and Brancusi's odds would be at least halved.

Brancusi has battled Peace Rules, Buddy Gil, Ten Most Wanted and Atswhatimtalknbout and hung tough. If he improves and the others don't, can you say "IRS form"?

• LIVE LONG SHOTS -- Buddy Gil (8-1) and Eye of the Tiger (50-1).


Richard Eng's horse racing column is published Friday. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com.