Now that I said all that here is an update. That information was for the winter meet and now they are starting the spring meet with a new set of possibilities. Here is an article from a website who seems to have good information for the horseplayer.
http://www.fullcardreports.com/newsletter2003.asp--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Aqueduct Insider
Wednesday March 10
A tip of the cap to new inner track record holder Richard Dutrow, Jr. for saddling 47 winners from just 124 starters to run away with the training title. The win percentage comes out to an incredible 38% with Dutrow's runners hitting the board at an unheard of 73% clip. Bruce Levine had an excellent meet with 23 winners while Scott Lake was a close up 3rd with 22. Dutrow trained horses won more races and more money than the next two trainers combined. Going into the 38 day spring meet the word is out that Dutrow is geared up to keep right on winning. He was the leading trainer in both 2001 and 2002.
Last week's route races followed the same format as the sprints did with the speed/stalker type runners winning 18 of the 21 contests (86%). Deep closers got there 3 times (14%). While speed is dangerous anywhere these stats will come closer together as they move to the main track. The much wider turns and different start positions for the gate will allow the closers to secure better trips.
Main Track Route Races: The mile and 70 yard and the mile and a sixteenth races are history. Both distances would have to start on the clubhouse turn. The bread and butter race is the mile and an eighth jaunt but there's some room here before getting to the first turn and the turn allows outside runners to use some speed without being fanned out of contention. This distance has played well to runners with early foot although closers are never out of it. The longer route races play fairly so you'll have to track the speed and track bias on a daily basis.
Wednesday's feature is a $46,000 allowance event going one mile for statebred 4 year olds and up. Anthony Dutrow will saddle the 2/1 morning line favorite GEOMETRY who has failed twice as an odds on fave to get through this condition over two turns on the inner track. The one turn mile should be more to his liking as he has tons of early foot. Reuniting with Richard Migliore who rode him to a mile 70 yard score three back is also a big plus. A horse which interests us here is the Jen Pedersen trained UNCALCULATED who comes in here with a huge 10/1 morning line. This horse has been mostly sprinting but only got beat a length four back at a mile and 70. He's been on the board once in two tries at the distance and catches post 3 and a favorable rider change to Aaron Gryder. This 4 year old colt is two for four in the money on the Big A main track and returns in the just twelve days from a sprint in which he was mugged at the start and still came back to catch the show. We'll be watching the tote with this one.
Reminder: Wednesday's first post reverts to 1PM EST and the main track opening day card has a $38,956 Pick 6 carryover in play.
The Aqueduct Insider
Tuesday March 09
Apprentice jockey Pablo Fragoso closed out the inner track racing season by winning twice Sunday, giving him 72 victories to lead all jockeys. The runnerup was Shaun Bridgmohan with 54 while Richard Migliore had 51. You will see the New York riding colony change change dramatically in the ensuing weeks as the weather gets better and the Gulfstream meet winds down. Apprentice Tim Thornton who had a good meet with 34 victories has already returned to Hawthorne. Fellow bug rider Edwin Paerez began a five day suspension Sunday for careless riding aboard CHERRY'S HUNTER in last Wednesday's 8th race. Perez' mount cut off GOLD LIKE U in the stretch but finished just behind that runner so there was no DQ. Perez can return for Friday's card.
With the opening of the one and one eighth mile main track Wednesday these stats won't mean much but 7 of the 24 sprints on the inner last week went gate to wire (29%). The speed/stalker type runners won 20 times (83%). Deep closers got there 4 times (17%).
Those Caulks: Last week horses wearing mud caulks won 26 of the 40 races in which they appeared (65%). A total of 96 of them were let loose and the winning mutuels returned $273.50. If you bet them all equally your 26 winners averaged a $10.52 win payoff and your flat bet profit was a very respectable 42%. With the opening of the main track Wednesday we have discovered throughout the years that even though some trainers will continue to use mud caulks on their runners the impact is just not the same. We will continue to track these horses but we do not expect the same impact. The racing surface is different, the sweep of the turns is different, the distances run are different, and the angle of the turns (4% camber) is different.
What To Look For: On the main track at 6f the inside speed is often as formful as it is on the inner track. In the one turn 7f races you will undoubtedly see more closers than at 6f. The one turn one mile races come out of a chute (as do the 7f races) and are often referred to as "long sprints". The horses go a bit more than half a mile before hitting the turn and the outside runners have the time and distance to seek position for the drive. Horses who try to wire the field and get run down late may seem to be beaten by closers when they are in reality backing up into a steady plodder. Be sure to check the late splits when this happens so you won't be fooled into thinking that you have just uncovered a late running super horse.
There's a $38,956 carryover up for grabs on Wednesday's card and first post reverts back to 1PM EST. Tomorrow we'll review the final inner track trainer standings and last week's route races. We'll also take a look at Wednesday's feature race and some things to keep in mind when wagering on two turn races on the main track
