Home Forums Sports Picks Central Trackside Picks Gotham, Rushaway, Lanes End, Rebel ANALYSIS

Saturday, March 20, 2004
Listed Rushaway
Turfway Park Race #7
Post Time: 3:38 PM EST
TV: TVG
Points - Horse: Win/4; Place/2; Show/1
Points - Jock, Trainer: Win/3

Analysis: GAMBLIN has switched barns to the care of Niall O'Callaghan and he has the look of a hot prospect who may earn his way into a tougher prep by beating a fairly easy bunch here.na needs substantial improvement to contend.

Commish's Exacta/Tri/Superfecta Box: BIRDSTONE (Key) + STOLEN TIME + SILVER MINISTER + LITTLE MATTH MAN


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Listed Rebel
Oaklawn Park Race #10
Post Time: 6:32 PM EST
TV: TVG
Points - Horse: Win/4; Place/2; Show/1
Points - Jock, Trainer: Win/3


Analysis: SMARTY JONES is the Rodney Dangerfield of this Derby Trail - no respect. He deserves it after winning the Southwest last out despite being a little short, and the expected improvement makes him a bear here. No doubt a son of Elusive Quality will have distance issues at some point, but 8.5 furlongs on this shallow track will be no problem and he may not be completely over bet with other quality runners here. His ability to stalk the pace is key and will give him another good trip here. Love the :58 3/5 work leading up to this. CRYPTOGRAPH is an improving sort with a router's pedigree. He is in good hands with Donnie Von Hemel and has already beaten two of his rivals here in previous allowance attempts. He has been carefully managed and should burst on the scene with a big try here. PURGE comes into the race with a progressive profile after an impressive N1X win at Gulfstream last out. Trainer Todd Pletcher has an army of good sophomores and continues to manage them well. MR. JESTER has the biggest bankroll in the field thanks to his Delta Jackpot score and his subsequent runner-up finish in the Risen Star was a solid race where he overcame trouble. He could actually be favored here with Kent Desormeaux in to ride but will need his best race yet to run down Smarty Jones in the lane while holding Cryptograph safe. GRAN PROSPECT played the role of beaten favorite in an allowance race run just after the Southwest and he probably needed that race. Goes blinkers on today and that should help him stay in touch early. Should improve enough to take down at least a piece of the purse. PRO PRADO was third in the Southwest and will race coupled with PROPER PRADO again today for trainer Bob Holthus. The odds on the entry may improve but there are several here they have not been able to beat in the past. ARCHIE B ran a credible fourth in the Southwest and is dangerous at odds with any improvement. He's very useful in exotics. MAISIE'S SON seems to be stuck in the N1X condition and hooking this kind won't do his confidence any good.

Commish's Exacta/Tri Box: SMARTY JONES (Key) + CRYPTOGRAPH + PURGE

playing a couple preps and a couple others...


Turfway park race 8

#7 Silver Minister win/place

50 exacta box #7,#1,#4


Aqueduct race 7

#5 Saratoga County win/place

#7 Rockhewn win/place

Gulfstream Race 6

# 1 entry JoeyBlueeyes/Believe I can Fly win/place


Fairgrounds Race 9

#5 Arcus win/place

#11 Runs with scissors win/place


GL all............

I bet one race on Friday, inbetween tournament games from afternoon to night. Oaklawn Park 9th

<img border="0" title="" alt="[Smile]" src="images/icons/smile.gif" />


3 14.60 6.40 3.60

had 50WP <img border="0" title="" alt="[Smile]" src="images/icons/smile.gif" />

The richest Triple Crown prep on Saturday will be the $500,000 Lane's End S.na-trained HASSLEFREE (Forestry) will likely set sail for the early lead from the get-go and try to stay there as long as possible.na (Louis Quatorze) broke his maiden going two turns in slop here in December, then attended the early going before fading in the Holy Bull S. (G3) at Gulfstream. He ran an even fourth, after being wide early, in the Battaglia, but is hard to get excited about. NEW ELEMENT (Louis Quatorze) broke his maiden in a two-turn, off-the-turf event at Fair Grounds in his latest. Like some of the others in here, his connections are taking a shot to see if they belong on the trail for gold and glory. TRICKY TABOO (Mazel Trick) is two-for-four over this surface but is in deep water at this level. Also, he is male-line sprinter, and therefore hard to recommend.

1st-SILVER MINISTER
2nd-BIRDSTONE
3rd-THAT'S AN OUTRAGE

Saturday's $200,000 Gotham S.na-trained colt, and Quick Action is eligible to rebound with a better showing on the front end.

DEPUTY STORM (Forestry) is the speed from the rail. The Todd Pletcher charge can really fly and may hold for a spot in the top three, but he may want a little less ground than a mile. POMEROY (Boundary) ended his juvenile campaign with a nice effort in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile S. (G3) in late September but hasn't raced since. Trainer Patrick Biancone wants to see what the colt can do against stakes rivals now, but Pomeroy would have probably been much better suited for an easier spot for his return.

ROCKHEWN (Formal Dinner) steps up after finishing second to conditioned allowance rivals over the inner track. WAR'S PROSPECT (Lion Cavern) doesn't appear fast enough to threaten.

1st-SARATOGA COUNTY
2nd-REDSKIN WARRIOR
3rd-EDDINGTON

I actually was impressed with Eddington, and will put a future bet on him at intertops, when they release the odds later this week, I want at least 20/1 though .........