Home Forums Sports Picks Central Trackside Picks Breeder's Cup 2004

be back later this week with my thoughts ........stay tuned .

early thoughts

race 2
Ashado,Island Fashion - main contenders
Tamweel, Hollywood Story, Nebraska Tornado - secondary contenders
off track - Ashado,Storm Flag Flying, Nebraska Tornado, Society selection


race 3
In the Gold, Sweet Cantomine, Dance Away capote , Mona lisa
off - In the Gold,DA Capote,Mona lisa

race 4
Special ring, Six perfections, Diamond green

race 5
Champali, Gold Storm, Our New Recruit, Mida Eyes

race 6
Ouija Board - main
Yesterday - secondary

race 7
Roman Ruler, Scandinavia, Afleet alex

race 8
Magistretti, powersCourt, Kitten's Joy

race 9
Perfect Drift, Dynever, PP, GZ

Kitens Joy is a winner in the 8th race!
I love that horse. I will be at the track tomorrow in Grand Prairie. 51,000 Strong Texans will be joining me.

Distaff PP's


Juv Fillies PP's
Mile PP's

Sprint PP's
F&M Turf PP's
Juvenile PP's
Turf PP's

Classic PP's

<small>[ October 29, 2004, 10:55 PM: Message edited by: FREAK ]</small>

With the defection of 2002 Horse of the Year Azeri (Jade Hunter), the $2 million Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) has become a wide-open affair.na, this gray turned a corner since a seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), reeling off two straight victories including the 1 1/8-mile Mother Goose (G1), a race at this level and distance. After finishing second in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and Alabama S. (G1), both at 10 furlongs, Stellar Jayne returned to her optimum distance in the nine-furlong Gazelle S. (G1), showing her affinity for this distance. After losing the lead in the stretch, the sophomore fought back to be a length winner at the wire. Her versatile running style provides her the ability to run on the lead or rate just off a fast pace, and she can close with a rush. Stellar Jayne looks to be extremely capable in this spot with regular rider Robby Albarado in the irons.

ASHADO (Saint Ballado) owns eight wins from 13 lifetime starts, 12 of which were graded. Her record this season, a remarkable 7-4-2-1, includes earnings of $1,219,640 and two Grade 1 wins. The dark bay filly will more than likely go off as the post-time favorite and deservedly so. The Todd Pletcher-trained miss has consistently earned century-topping BRIS Speed figures and will have John Velazquez aboard.

Distance does not appear to be a factor for SOCIETY SELECTION (Coronado's Quest) as the bay owns wins from seven furlongs to 1 1/4 miles, three of which were Grade 1s. The only question for the Allen Jerkens trainee is whether or not she will run in the Distaff as she did in the Alabama, first over both Stellar Jayne and Ashado, or copy her performance in the nine-furlong Mother Goose, in which she finished sixth. Regardless, it is tough to look past the three-year-old.

The Shug McGaughey-conditioned STORM FLAG FLYING (Storm Cat) has experienced serious competition as of late, including recently-retired Sightseek in three of her last four outings and the great Azeri on two occasions as well. With the absence of those two, this filly has a strong chance in the Distaff. The four-year-old can rate or run on the lead, making her a dangerous entrant. The Ogden Phipps homebred could be there for part.

ISLAND FASHION (Petionville) shocked the racing world when finishing second four starts back against the boys in the Santa Anita H. (G1). Trainer Marcelo Polanco then shipped the filly to Japan where she ran a disappointing 16th, more than likely due to the surface of the grassy race. The gray then traveled back to the United States in good form, taking the Lady's Secret Breeders' Cup H. (G2) in her last out. Don't forget her at the windows.

TAMWEEL (Gulch) pressed 2002 Distaff winner Azeri through 8 1/2 furlongs in the Spinster S. (G1) last time before the champion kicked away in the final sixteenth. Trained by Wayne Catalano, the chestnut was still impressive finishing second. In fact, since switching to the Chicago-based trainer, this four-year-old owns a record of 4-2-2-0. Watch for her to possibly surprise on Saturday. Four-year-old ELLOLUV (Gilded Time) ran a valiant second to Adoration (Honor Grades) in last year's Distaff but no longer appears in that top form. The bay captured the 2003 Ashland S. (G1), as well as the Piedra Foundation H. two back, but has not run at this level since last year. Her nice recent works suggest possible use on the bottom of the exotics.

French Oaks (Fr-G1) winner NEBRASKA TORNADO (Storm Cat) will make her U. S. bow in the Distaff for trainer Andre Fabre, for whom Gary Stevens rode this summer. She will have hot jockey Edgar Prado in the irons but will try the dirt for the first time. While she is by a good dirt sire, the four-year-old miss is winless from four starts this year and we can't recommend her chances here. The Frank Kirby-trained BARE NECESSITIES (Silver Deputy) has consistently run at the graded level this year but to no avail. The mare has finished second or third in six of those seven contests, but she hasn't made it to the winner's circle this season. We don't see her making it there against tougher company on Saturday.

HOLLYWOOD STORY (Wild Rush) has four Grade 1 starts this year for conditioner John Shirreffs but, much like Bare Necessities, has not crossed the wire first. The three-year-old owns a Grade 1 win in the Hollywood Starlet S. (G1), but we feel she needs to improve significantly to factor. INDY GROOVE (A. P. Indy) steps up here after a nice win in the Autumn Leaves S. at Mountaineer Park last out, recording a competitive Speed figure of 105. Still, we'll have to watch on Cup Day.

1st-STELLAR JAYNE
2nd-ASHADO
3rd-SOCIETY SELECTION

With the scratch of In the Gold (Golden Missile) on Thursday, a highly contentious field of 12 will line up for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). Our first thought was to go with SWEET CATOMINE (Storm Cat), who has been impressive winning a pair of graded stakes in Southern California, but we're going to give a slight nod to SENSE OF STYLE (Thunder Gulch), who should offer better odds.

Sense of Style stood out winning her first three starts with flair, including the Matron S. (G1) at Belmont Park. The Patrick Biancone-trained filly was virtually blocked during the entire running of the 1 1/16-mile Alcibiades S. (G2) at Keeneland and was really not persevered with in the last 100 yards when it became apparent that she could not win the race. Sense of Style is nicely drawn near the outside for clear stalking trip and we look for her to return to her winning ways with the addition of first-time Lasix.

Sweet Catomine could not have been more impressive winning the 1 1/16-mile Oak Leaf S. (G2) at Santa Anita in her last start with a powerful, sweeping move around the second turn. In her prior outing, the Julio Canani trainee closed from far back to break her maiden in the Del Mar Debutante (G1). She is clearly the horse to beat, but given the quality of this field, our concern is that she could go forth at underlaid odds.

After winning her first two, BALLETTO (UAE) (Timber Country) finished determinedly for runner-up honors in the Matron. She raced with the pace while covered up along the rail and then closed gamely along the inside to win the 1 1/16-mile Frizette S. (G1) in her last start. Balletto projects a ground-saving trip from the inside post and is a dangerous contender for all the money.

If either SHARP LISA (Dixieland Band) or PLAY WITH FIRE (Boundary) work out a trip from their extreme outside post positions, they are major players to light the board at attractive odds.


Sharp Lisa, who was purchased privately after an impressive first-out victory at Calder, ran a terrific race in the Alcibiades, advancing nicely from between foes around the second turn and then diving to the rail and just missing in a photo.

Play with Fire looked Sense of Style in eye before finishing a close third in the Matron, then closed rather well for fourth-place money in the Frizette. She has tactical speed and gets a rider change to Pat Day.

MONA LISA (GB) (Giant's Causeway) raced with the pace, was snatched up two furlongs out, then just missed third while finishing fourth, beaten just 1 3/4 lengths, in the Fillies S. (Eng-G1) at Ascot in her latest. The Aidan O'Brien trainee, who is still a maiden, has been keeping top company in Europe and rates our longshot special with first-time Lasix.

Despite comments to the contrary by trainer Graham Motion, DANCE AWAY CAPOTE (Capote) got a near-perfect, clear trip in the Alcibiades where she saved ground on the first turn, advanced quickly on the outside around the second turn, then finished well to run a close fourth. She is worth a second look at large odds. The speedy SIS CITY (Slew City Slew) set fast fractions before holding on well for third in the Frizette. She was originally going to skip this race, but now picks up top rider John Velazquez and is the likely pacesetter.

CULTURE CLASH (Petionville) was wide early, advanced inside on the second turn, then had to wait briefly before finishing a decent, but well-beaten fourth in the Oak Leaf. She has some upset potential at huge odds. CULINARY (El Amante) is undefeated in two starts at Arlington Park, including an open-length victory over Alcibiades winner RUNWAY MODEL (Petionville) in the Arlington-Washington Lassie S. (G3) last out. She's already been tabbed the "wise-guy" horse, so we're going against. Runway Model proved best at large odds with first-time Lasix in the Alcibiades and gets a returning Rafael Bejarano aboard. Like Culture Cash, she has the look of an underlay. HIGHER WORLD (Peaks and Valleys) figures to add to the early pace and exits a Grade 2 victory in Canada. Like some others, she has class questions.

1st-SENSE OF STYLE
2nd-SWEET CATOMINE
3rd-BALLETTO

SIX PERFECTIONS (Fr) (Celtic Swing) provided a slight upset in last year's Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) when rallying in the stretch to take the firm turf test by three parts of a length.na) surprised at 11-1 in the Dixie S. (G2) at Pimlico earlier this year, then finished close in both the Manhattan H. (G1) and United Nations (G1). He ran an even sixth in the Arlington Million (G1) three back, but finally was moved back to the mile distance he prefers when taking the Kelso Breeders' Cup H. (G2) at Belmont last out. The five-year-old chestnut earned a 102 Late Pace figure for that one and could challenge in the stretch here.

Whipper hasn't raced in 55 days, but a layoff didn't stop him from winning the Prix Djebel in France by eight lengths in his first start this season. He'll be getting first-time Lasix in this spot and will keep regular French rider Christophe Soumillon in the saddle. The pair could come running late in the exotics.

ARTIE SCHILLER (El Prado [Ire]) has won both of his starts at eight furlongs, but might prefer more ground. However, the James Jerkens-trained sophomore is too talented to completely leave out of consideration. He scored in his past two starts, both Grade 2s, while earning competitive numbers, and could show up in the stretch to grab a top three placing under Richard Migliore. SINGLETARY (Sultry Song) is a specialist at the distance and has posted nothing but triple-digit Speed ratings since September of last year. The bay four-year-old finished only a head back in third in the Oak Tree Breeders' Cup Mile S. (G2) last out and is our sleeper special.

BLACKDOUN (Fr) (Verglas [Ire]) will try to keep his record perfect stateside in this one after taking the Oceanside S. (second division), La Jolla H. (G2) and Del Mar Derby (G2). The massive gray colt has successfully stretched out since shipping to the United States, but has plenty of experience winning at a mile. Include in the exotics. SILVER TREE (Hennessy) has traded the win spot with Nothing to Lose quite a few times this year and could easily find himself filling out the bottom of the gimmicks.

ANTONIUS PIUS (Danzig) will be getting Lasix added to help his chances, but hasn't been able to challenge overseas this year. We can't recommend based on his current form. DIAMOND GREEN (Fr) (Green Desert) has filled the runner-up spot for much of the year in England and France, but might not be able to keep up against these. We'll let him beat us. DOMESTIC DISPUTE (Unbridled's Song) could show improvement while shortening in distance here but is facing a tough task in only his second start on the turf.

1st-SOARING FREE
2nd-SIX PERFECTIONS
3rd-NOTHING TO LOSE

This year's $1 million Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) features one of the most talented fields that Lone Star Park will see on Saturday, as any number of the entrants have the ability to win. Only three horses in the field of 13 have raced over the Texas track, and most of the sprints that have taken place at Lone Star this year have seen winners lead wire-to-wire or come from just off the pace to win. We believe that CHAMPALI (Glitterman) has the most potential to walk away victorious.

Champali looks like the most underrated horse in the field. The bay four-year-old has never raced against Grade 1 competition, but he's shown a great ability to sit just off the pace and make a winning move turning for home. With the certainty of a fast pace here, he'll be in position to take advantage when the front-runners tire. On a day that calls for possible rain, the Greg Foley charge has proven himself on an off track, coming away with two wins and a place in three starts on a track rated less than fast. The colt comes off a stellar win in the Phoenix Breeders' Cup S. (G3), earning a 110 BRIS Speed rating, and will have jockey Rafael Bejarano back in the saddle. Champali could be our next Breeders' Cup Sprint champion.

SPEIGHTSTOWN (Gone West) enters the race as the 3-1 favorite, despite a 4 1/2-length loss earlier this month in the Vosburgh S. (G1). Fortunately for the chestnut six-year-old, he will not have to contend with Vosburgh winner Pico Central (Brz) (Spend a Buck), whose owner, Gary Tanaka, did not put up the supplemental entry fee. Speightstown has shown that he deserves the low odds by winning three Grade 2 races and his first four starts of the year. Look for the Todd Pletcher charge to challenge for the lead from the beginning in pursuit of a familiar wire-to-wire run. Jockey John Velazquez has the call.

CLOCK STOPPER (Gilded Time) has participated in a number of close races and, although he could be more successful if stretched out to a mile, is very capable of winning here. The Dallas Stewart trainee will once again find himself under the influence of Pat Day, who will be making his 11th start aboard the chestnut four-year-old, eight of these an on the board run. Clock Stopper's last victorious effort came back in June under Day in an optional claimer, but look for him to make a good appearance here and claim another top three finish.

KELA (Numerous) is coming off a winning effort in the Pat O'Brien Breeders' Cup H. (G2) back in August. In this race, he earned his highest Speed rating to date (113), which came just on the heels of a 112 set in winning the six-furlong Bing Crosby Breeders' Cup H. (G1) the race prior. The Mike Mitchell-trained six-year-old already has two races under his belt at Lone Star, one a victory in the one-mile Texas Mile S. (G3) in April. Jerry Bailey will be making his first appearance on the bay and Kela looks dangerous.

MIDAS EYES (Touch Gold), who is coming off a 56-day layoff, will make his first start since winning the Forego H. (G1) in early September. The four-year-old has shown tremendous improvement since being put under the whip of Edgar Prado, earning duel 112 Speed figures in his last two outings, and Bobby Frankel's bay colt should sit a good trip just off the pace here. Midas Eyes is capable of a serious challenge from the far outside post.

GOLD STORM (Seeking the Gold) comes off a second-place finish in the Phoenix. The four-year-old chestnut is the most experienced on Saturday's surface, posting a 4-3-0-1 record at Lone Star, and his present form is a plus. Trainer Bubba Cascio and jockey Larry Taylor have been a good combination lately, with the duo going 10-3-1-3 in the past two weeks, and Gold Storm will be winging it early for the pair. He'll face serious pressure, but we wouldn't be shocked to see him hold for part.

BWANA CHARLIE (Indian Charlie) is the more talented of two Steve Asmussen entries. The bay colt was victorious three back in the Amsterdam S. (G2) at Saratoga and came just shy of the winner's circle last out in the Alysheba Breeders' Cup S. at Lone Star. He should find this company much more difficult, but the three-year-old is one to consider for the exotics with Richard Migliore in the irons.

CAJUN BEAT (Grand Slam) comes into the race Saturday to defend his title from last year. The four-year-old gelding will start from the 11-hole, the same post position from which he won last year's Sprint at Santa Anita, and he'll be making his second start for Frankel. That first start, however, resulted in a fourth-place finish and Cajun Beat has not seen the same success as he did with former trainer Steve Margolis. PT'S GREY EAGLE (Pleasant Tap) enters off a win in the Ancient Title Breeders' Cup H. (G1), in which he entered the lane five-wide to rally in the stretch. He has also shown an ability to run near the front of the pack and come out in good form. The three-year-old gelding will be coming out of the eight spot but has a history of running well previously when starting from outside posts.

Dubai Golden Shaheen (UAE-G1) winner OUR NEW RECRUIT (Alphabet Soup) comes into this race off a victory in the Pirate's Bounty H. in early September, a 54-day layoff. Despite his success in these two races, he might not have what it takes to be a serious factor. ABBONDANZA (Alphabet Soup) will need to prove himself against this kind of competition. The three-year-old chestnut posted a third-place spot in the Riva Ridge Breeders' Cup S. (G2) in June and a second in the Bay Shore S. (G3) back in April, but we'll go against here.

CUVEE (Carson City) has only two races behind him this year, the last a second in the Kentucky Cup Sprint (G3) at Turfway. He owns nice BRIS E1 and E2 Speed figures, but he'll likely have a difficult time sustaining his speed. MY COUSIN MATT (Matty G) has not really shown that he has the ability to keep up with his fellow entrants here. His lone graded win came in 2003 when he took the General George H. (G2).

1st-CHAMPALI
2nd-SPEIGHTSTOWN
3rd-CLOCK STOPPER

A superb field of 12 will go postward in the $1 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) at Lone Star on Saturday. Multiple Group 1 heroine OUIJA BOARD (GB) (Cape Cross [Ire]) has been installed as the 8-5 morning line choice, and although we respect the dynamic filly, we will search for value on the win end.

WONDER AGAIN (Silver Hawk) has drawn wide in this 1 3/8-mile turf contest, but in a race basically void of speed, the post should not be to her detriment due to her tractability. The classy bay has reached her full potential this campaign, evidenced by her runaway wins in the New York H. (G2) and Diana H. (G1) for conditioner Jimmy Toner, and exits a roughly run race that could turn out to be a useful prep. The five-year-old loves some give in the turf, something she should have, and we're especially intrigued by her conservative connections shipping her in for the race. The presence of top turf jockey Edgar Prado adds to the appeal.


Ouija Board captured both the English and Irish Oaks (Harold Roth/Horsephotos.com)
It's hard to take anything away from Ouija Board, who has posted sharp wins from four starts in 2004, the lone loss coming as a fast closing third in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1). We question how much the three-year-old has in the tank, having been prepped for so many big events this year, and think she could be vulnerable following the lengthy ship. A scene with her in the winner's circle would be no shock; we just prefer her use on the bottom of exotics.
AUBONNE (Ger) (Monsun) could be a good value play on many exotic tickets for conditioner Eric Libaud. The chestnut made the pace in the Beverly D. S. (G1) before tiring to sixth, beaten just two lengths, and returned with a troubled trip fifth in the Flower Bowl Invitational H. (G1), this time beaten just 1 1/4 lengths. It may be her time for some good racing luck. This lass is also likely to be forwardly placed, and with clear sailing, she could be around very late. Jerry Bailey will guide the four-year-old.

MEGAHERTZ (GB) (Pivotal) is coming into this one having been unraced since May, when she was a furiously closing second in the Gamely Breeders' Cup H. (G1) for Bobby Frankel. The five-year-old has arguably the best late kick of anyone in the field, which usually finds her at least on the board. With an unexpected pace scenario, don't be too surprised if she passes them all.

LIGHT JIG (GB) (Danehill) has progressed steadily this year and is yet another who has a shot at finishing in the top three. The four-year-old Juddmonte homebred shows four wins from six starts in the United States, including a four-length thrashing in the Yellow Ribbon S. (G1) most recently. The bay is perfect from three outings in 2004 at 10 furlongs, so she may fully appreciate the added eighth in this one. Her off turf record leaves something to be desired, so we'll keep her on the lower rungs of the gimmicks.


YESTERDAY (Ire) (Sadler's Wells) was a good third in this one last year for Aidan O' Brien, missing by just 2 3/4 lengths. The bay has been seen just twice in 2004, with a pair of unplaced Group 1 efforts, but we respect her connections and back class and will include her in exotics. RISKAVERSE (Dynaformer) broke a prolonged losing streak with a terrific performance in the Flower Bowl, closing into slow fractions to top a solid group. The dark bay was competitive in this one last year until the latter stages, and it can be argued that this field is not as contentious as that one. In a race filled with seeming one-run closers, it's hard to imagine her getting up first, but we'll keep her in exotics.

MOSCOW BURNING (Moscow Ballet), the likely pacesetter, coughed up the lead in the latter stages of the Flower Bowl, and should find this field much tougher. If she is allowed to crawl through the opening mile, she could last for a minor share. FILM MAKER (Dynaformer) and SHACONAGE (El Prado [Ire]) are deep closers that look quite unlikely in here. SUPER BRAND (SAf) (Royal Chalice) and KATDOGAWN (GB) (Bahhare) may simply be outclassed at this time.

1st-WONDER AGAIN
2nd-OUIJA BOARD
3rd-AUBONNE

There were only eight two-year-olds entered in this year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), but the 1 1/16-mile test features the top three finishers from the Champagne S.na and ridden by the up-and-coming Rafael Bejarano, thrown in for good measure.na -- and the outcome will no doubt play a pivotal role in determining the champion of the division.na-trained CONSOLIDATOR (Storm Cat) clocked the pacesetter, took the lead around the second turn, then opened up daylight on the rest of the field while being hard ridden by Bejarano to take the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. He has excellent early speed and will likely try to steal this in front-running fashion, but we're going to play against.

SCANDINAVIA (Fusaichi Pegasus) was odds-on in his first three starts and exits a runner-up effort in the one-mile Royal Lodge S. (Eng-G2) at Ascot. The Aidan O'Brien-trained colt finished evenly in that event and earned a commendable 108 Timeform rating. WILKO (Awesome Again) ran third, 1 1/2 lengths behind the one above, in the Royal Lodge, despite encountering trouble. Both of these add first-time Lasix but would be a surprise to get their picture taken. TWICE UNBRIDLED (Unbridled's Song) is still a maiden after two starts and will likely be a useful horse in the future. He is overmatched in this spot, however.

1st-ROMAN RULER
2nd-AFLEET ALEX
3rd-PROUD ACCOLADE

The Classic (G1) concludes the 2004 Breeders' Cup with a competitive field of 13, including last year's Classic winner PLEASANTLY PERFECT (Pleasant Colony), 2002 Horse of the Year AZERI (Jade Hunter), 2003 champion three-year-old FUNNY CIDE (Distorted Humor) and this year's Travers S. (G1) and Belmont S. (G1) winner BIRDSTONE (Grindstone).

GHOSTZAPPER (Awesome Again) breaks from the rail and rates top billing in the $4 million event. By the 1998 Breeders' Cup Classic winner, his dam's sire has also produced a Breeders' Cup Classic victor and Ghostzapper has shown no distance limitations so far. He's never been 1 1/4 miles before, but trainer Bobby Frankel has pointed the bay colt toward this event all year and Ghostzapper appears set for a tremendous performance.

He raced at shorter distances earlier in his career, but the lightly raced four-year-old has developed into a dominant handicap performer this season, recording a 10 3/4-length triumph in the nine-furlong Philip H. Iselin Breeders' Cup H. (G2) before a gutsy neck decision in the 1 1/8-mile Woodward (G1) last out. Ghostzapper was pushed extremely wide through the stretch in the latter but still earned a whopping 114 BRIS Speed rating. He notched a 117 for the Iselin and has posted fantastic BRIS Late Pace numbers all year. Jockey Javier Castellano figures to cut out a perfect stalking trip from the inside before asking for Ghostzapper's best.

ROSES IN MAY (Devil His Due) is another who has never been 10 furlongs, but he's bred to run all day and is unbeaten from five starts in 2004, the last three at 1 1/8 miles. The Dale Romans trainee's main attribute is his speed, and he'll probably be sitting second early tracking Azeri. We loved his winning performance in the Whitney H. (G1) two starts back, and he won't be going nearly as fast on the front end Saturday. Roses in May loves to win (seven-for-10) and has improved all season. He looks very dangerous.


Funny Cide will likely be right there. He certainly thrives at the distance, winning last year's Kentucky Derby (G1) and the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) 28 days ago, and the New York-bred gelding earned terrific Speed and Pace figures in his last start. Funny Cide enters on the upswing for conditioner Barclay Tagg and has been extremely reliable for an in-the-money finish this season, hitting the board eight of nine times while facing top class company most of the time. We'll look for nine of 10.

Pleasantly Perfect got a bad outside draw (12) and will attempt to become the first horse to win the Classic off more than a 50-day layoff. The six-year-old hasn't started in 69 days and prepped for last year's Classic score in the Goodwood Breeders' Cup H. (G2). Trainer Richard Mandella bypassed that prep this year, but he knows his horse much better than us and could still have Pleasantly Perfect at the top of his game.

Pleasantly Perfect bounced back from his only setback within the last 12 months with a solid win in the Pacific Classic (G1) last out and was still lightly raced entering last year's Classic (only 12 starts beforehand). He's much more of a savvy veteran now, with a trip to Dubai under his belt, and will be tough to beat at his best. However, we'll try to do just that at short odds from his outside post.

NEWFOUNDLAND (Storm Cat) is probably better at Belmont, but his present form is appealing and the overlooked four-year-old is a sleeper at huge odds. Newfoundland earned a 112 Speed rating for his close runner-up finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and a 109 when missing by a head in the Suburban H. (G1). Tactical speed is usually an advantage at Lone Star and Newfoundland should be well-placed early and might hang around a long way.

Birdstone came off lengthy layoffs to capture both the Belmont and Travers, so the 63-day layoff isn't a major concern, but he did arrive at Lone Star with a skin rash and has never run well outside of New York. The classy colt owns the Speed figures to contend for it all, but we'll go against him outside of New York until he proves it first.

FANTASTICAT (Storm Cat) is probably overmatched at this level, but the improving three-year-old offered a strong rally to capture the Super Derby (G2) last time and does offer some appeal for the bottom of the exotics at huge odds. DYNEVER (Dynaformer) is horribly drawn in post 13 and has been inconsistent this year for trainer Christophe Clement. He captured the Lone Star Derby (G3) over the track last year and merits consideration for the exotics from off the pace on Saturday, but the late runner will probably be overbet and looks vulnerable from the far outside.


Azeri will likely flash to the front and try to steal it, and the 11-time Grade 1 heroine is as game as they come. However, she ran poorly against weaker female company in her only career start at 10 furlongs, finishing second in the Personal Ensign H. (G1) while earning a dismal 94 Speed rating, and we can't envision her being prominent inside the final furlong against much better rivals.

BOWMAN'S BAND (Dixieland Band) gets part a lot, but he is winless from 10 starts this year and probably prefers a little less ground. We'll let him beat us. PERFECT DRIFT (Dynaformer) is a strong late runner at his best, but he earned a poor 76 BRIS Late Pace rating when giving up the lead inside the final furlong of the Hawthorn Gold Cup (G2) last time. We don't like the fact that the five-year-old gelding is winless from seven starts this year, and Perfect Drift doesn't look sharp enough presently to challenge.

FREEFOURINTERNET (Tabasco Cat) closed from the back of the pack to win the Hawthorne Gold Cup last time, but he didn't come home quickly and has failed to earn a triple-digit Speed rating this year. We can't recommend. PERSONAL RUSH (Wild Rush) makes his U.S. bow off a Japanese Group 1 win, but we'll just watch to see how he fares against this company.

1st-GHOSTZAPPER
2nd-ROSES IN MAY
3rd-FUNNY CIDE

my picks for the main race at breeder's are:

win: birdstone
place: azeri
show: funny cide

Good stuff guys!!

Birdstone in the classic