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Kyle Anthony 4%- Jared Cannonier -155

Analysis:
In the main event of August 21st UFC on ESPN 29 event, Jared Cannonier faces Kelvin Gastelum…

This is a great stylistic match up for Jared “The Killa Gorilla” Cannonier. Physically all the advantages goes to Jared as Kelvin's much smaller for the division. While Jared has competed at heavyweight, light heavyweight and middle weight keeping his strength and power even moving down weight classes. Offensively his power transitioned well at middleweight with 3 straight knockout wins against Anderson Silva, David Branch and Jack Hermansson. What was very eye opening was his performance against Jack Hermansson whom had Jared down and on his back early in round 1, but somehow Cannonier muscled his way back to his feet. This display of well rounded ability shows how far his come during this late rise in his career. Most recently losing to former UFC champion Robert Whittaker in which early round 1 Jared broke his forearm blocking a high kick. Impressively Cannonier toughed it out not giving up fighting all 3 rounds. It says a ton about Jareds toughness and character pushing though and even keeping the fight respectfully close with one arm. I fully believe if he had 2 working arms Jared beats Whittaker, ….but that's for another day to discuss.

Kelvin Gastelum is a fan favorite for his fighting style, but this match up does him no favors. Yes Kelvin is 1-4 in last 5 cage appearances but mostly against top tier talent. Gastelum's record isn't why I'm picking against him, sheer ability of Cannoier is why. Overall I'm extremely high on Jared's skill set and what he brings to the cage. If need be Cannonier can drag doll the smaller guy down maximizing his ruthless ground and pound. On top position he should be able to control Kelvin piling up the damage. On the feet, Kelvin has slick boxing but that seems to be his bread and butter, a boxing heavy approach. Jared's counter to that is his 6 inch reach advantage he brings to the cage. Kelvin maybe quicker, but that range he'll have to face will force him in uncomfortable spots on the feet. Add in mixing in his power leg kicks and Cannonier has everything it takes to find a victory Saturday night.



4% Play: Jared Cannonier (-155)

Kyle Anthony 4%- Vinc Pichel -120

Analysis:
In a main card bout August 21st at UFC on ESPN 29: Vinc Pichel faces Austin Hubbard…

This line is off providing value at nearly a pick'em price on the better overall fighter.

When first capping Austin Hubbard a few things stuck out… first being his complete stiffness when standing in the pocket exchanging. Heavy on his feet always keeping head on center line defensively and on the attack. This inability to smoothly maneuver has left him exposed in many situations. Against the slick movement of Joe Solecki it took him no time cutting distance getting ahold of Hubbard's back with limited resistance. Solecki was able to find a rear-naked choke finish in round 1. Austin is 2-2 in his last 4 UFC cage appearances and boy those 2 wins are extremely suspect. Prior to his fight against Solecki, Hubbard faced the UFC debut of Max Rohskopf. At the time Max had 5 professional fights, so not only was he inexperienced but was coming in on roughly 2 weeks notice. Early Hubbard was taken down and in bad spots multiple times yet survived against the novice fighter. As the fight went on, Max was completely gassed by round 2 allowing Hubbard to take control winning via doctor stoppage. Even Austin's most recent fight against ANOTHER UFC debuting fighter in Dakota Bush. Once again facing a UFC debuting fighter on short notice, this was roughly a week's notice for Bush. Even with that, it was close early but Hubbard won via decision 29-28. Also another clear vulnerability for Hubbard is his grappling and thats a path Pichel can exploit. In certain spots clinching or scrambling for position Austin seems lost.

On the other side is Vinc Pichel who's no spring chicken at 38 years old, but a much more compete fighter then Hubbard. After a year long layoff from defeating highly touted prospect Roosevenlt Roberts where Vinc controlled positioning on the ground winning via decision, he most recently faced UFC vet and top level grappler Jim Miller. Not only did Vinc push a very high pace but displayed his ability to out grapple the high level BJJ of Miller on the mat. Impressively he controlled top time and smothered Miller in rounds 2 and 3 getting the decision win. It was a nice showing from him.

Overall, Hubbard doesn't impress me much. His stiff movement, lackluster defense and weak grappling gives all advantages to Pichel. If he keeps a solid striking volume and level changes when open Vinc should find a victory by fights end. At nearly a pick'em price I'm loving this line to cash in.



4% Play: Vinc Pichel (-120)

Kyle Anthony 3%- Bea Malecki -140

Analysis:
In a preliminary bout Bea Malecki faces Josiane Nunes…

Newcomer Bea Malecki brings a fantastic striking skill set to the cage with high accolades as a muay thai world champion. With only 2 professional MMA fights, nothing but high hopes for this Sweden born UFC fighter. With a 3-0 MMA amateur record it appears Bea is transitioning well to MMA. In her UFC debut defeating Duda Santana via round 2 submission in a tough fight, but impressively winning 2nd UFC bout by unanimous decision against Veronica Macedo. This was a great test for Bea and she preformed well unitizing her high level striking and rangy combinations. Macedo was a bull pressuring forward, yet Bea's footwork and movement pushing a nice pace into rounds 2 and 3 got the win. On Saturday night Bea will be facing a lower level opponent in Josiane Nunes with similar style she just faced. Don't let the Nunes last name fool you, …she isn't 2 division world champion Amanda Nunes. Josiane displays wild sloppy combinations with limited footwork. Loopy hooks backed by random charges in will allow the longer reach of Bea tagging Nunes all fight. With a 7 inch reach advantage and higher level striking credentials for Malecki, I don't see anywhere Nunes can find success. Add in a 7 inch height advantage as well with overall better kick boxing means positive things for Bea grabbing the victory. Even if Josiane seeks takedowns, she's shown basic knowledge on the mat. Plus Bea's long legs and reach should assist her keeping upright. At -140 on a fighter with all the tools against Josiane whom will probably not see a UFC cage again if she loses.

This breakdown is posted before method of victory lines are out. Definitley interested in odds on Bea winning via decision. Could be plus money and worth a sprinkle.


Play: Bea Malecki (-140)

Ian Parker

Jared Cannonier (-155) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+130): Cannonier (best bet)

Kelvin Gastelum will be stepping up on short notice to take on the very dangerous Jared Cannonier. Stylistically, this fight is a nightmare matchup for Gastelum. Look for Cannonier to defend Gastelum's takedown attempts with ease and get the better of the striking en route to victory.

Parker Porter (+160) vs. Chase Sherman (-190): Sherman (best bet)

This fight should be a lot of fun as both men love to keep it on the feet and strike. Look for Chase Sherman to be the more technical striker and potentially carry more power as well. Porter will try to press forward, but the high-volume output from Sherman will be too much for Porter.

Alexandre Pantoja (-165) vs. Brandon Royval (+140): Pantoja (best bet)

Alexandre Pantoja is coming off his most impressive win to date, a triumph over Manel Kape in February. He will look to continue that success as he takes on Brandon Royval. The 29-year-old Royval is a talented fighter, but in the areas where he is good, Pantoja is better. This is a very tough matchup for Royval, considering he is coming back from an extended layoff due to injury.

Brian Kelleher (-175) vs. Domingo Pilarte (+150): Kelleher (best bet)

Brian Kelleher will be looking to bounce back from a loss to Ricky Simon as he takes on Domingo Pilarte. Stylistically, this fight favors Kelleher, who will be the better striker and wrestler. Pilarte throws very wild punches and tends not to have much of a game plan. Look for Kelleher to counter Pilarte's wild punches and outland him.

William Knight (-195) vs. Fabio Cherant (+165): Knight (best bet)

We last saw Cherant get submitted by Alonzo Menifield back in March. Unfortunately for Cherant, he is entering another unfavorable matchup against Knight. Look for Knight to be the better striker and eventually take the fight to the floor, where he should dominate Cherant with his ground-and-pound.

Clay Guida (+140) vs. Mark Madsen (-165): Madsen (lean)

Looking to keep his undefeated record intact, Mark Madsen will face his toughest test to date when he takes on Clay Guida. The 39-year-old Guida is a cardio machine, but while he usually relies on his wrestling, he will have to try a different path as Madsen will be the better wrestler. Look for Madsen to close the distance very early and put Guida on his back. As long as his cardio has improved and he can control the pace of the fight, he should be able to outwrestle Guida and secure the victory.

Vinc Pichel (-115) vs. Austin Hubbard (-105): Pichel (lean)

Riding a two-fight winning streak, Vinc Pichel will be looking to make it three when he takes on Austin Hubbard. Look for Pichel to defend the takedown attempts of Hubbard and keep the fight standing, where he will have the advantage. Expect Pichel to land heavy shots on Hubbard and control the fight on the feet.

Austin Lingo (+115) vs. Luis Saldana (-135): Saldana (lean)

Luis Saldana will be looking to continue his winning ways as he takes on Austin Lingo. Both men are very well-rounded fighters, but Saldana has the bigger advantage on the feet. Look for Saldana to outstrike Lingo, forcing him to try to take the fight to the ground. I expect Saldana to be able to fend off the takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, where he will get the win.

Roosevelt Roberts (-150) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (+125): Bahamondes

Roosevelt Roberts will be looking to end his two-fight losing streak as he takes on young prospect Ignacio Bahamondes. The 23-year-old Bahamondes recently lost a split decision after also missing weight for the first time in his career. Look for him to be the better striker. He will need to stay off the cage and fend off the takedowns of Roberts. If he can do that and keep the fight on the feet, he should be able to get the win.

Kyle Anthony- 3% - Clay Guida +145

Analysis:
In a co-main event bout Clay Guida faces Mark O. Madsen…

Don't let the 10-0 record of Mark O. Madsen fool you, he's no “up and comer” in the division. Although undefeated sounds great, this 36 year old Greco Roman Wrestler is no spring chicken and facing by far his toughest opponent. After beating a few cans in lower level MMA organizations he's now 2-0 in the UFC. His weapon of choice… wrestling. Getting the fight to the ground working from top position. Madsen has been successful in those exchanges, but against much lower level grapplers. On Saturday night he'll face a top level wrestler in UFC vet Clay Guida. The path to victory for Mark could be nullified as Clay's known for fantastic scrambling ability when put on the mat. No doubt Madsen will effortlessly push for grappling control but a vulnerability of his has been cardio. When level changing repeatedly a big gas tank is a must to fuel those attempts… but you know who has strong cardio?? Clay Guida. So not only does he have the counter wrestling to void out mark's #1 path to victory, but can out cardio him as well. On the feet Guida has the advantages and should dominate against the sloppy striking of Madsen. With limited worry of Mark's stand up skills will allow Clay pushing a very good pace utilizing high striking volume adding in his fantastic cage movement. This movement should also put Mark into uncomfortable positions allowing Guida to work his offense at different angles. Also, don't be surprised if Clay seeks takedowns of his own. His top control and wrestling IQ is high and Mark hasn't been tested off his back in the UFC…

This could be a draining fight and Madsen may find success early, but as the fight wears on… Clay should take control of rounds 2 and 3 if he doesn't finish him before that. At +145 on a guy with FAR more MMA experience, better cardio, stronger striking skills with a strength that could block the opponents #1 path to victory… I'm wagering Clay here at plus money. With implied probability on Guida of roughly 41%, I'd cap his chances of winning much higher. Feel he should be the slight favorite in this spot, so +145 is solid value.



Play: Clay Guida (+145)

Mike McClure

Jared Cannonier
Alexandre Pantoja
Roosevelt Roberts