Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar Sports World UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs Chikadze

Kyle Anthony- 4% Kevin Lee -145

Analysis:
In a main card bout Kevin Lee faces Daniel Rodriguez…

Stylistically this is a tough match up for D-Rod. Since winning on Dana White's Contender Series in 2019, Rodriguez has displayed a solid stand up game. His footwork, combinations and angles he works are high level going 5-1 since entering the UFC. The biggest question will be …can he withstand takedown attempts from Kevin Lee? The high level wrestling and power takedowns Lee presents should cause massive issues for Rodriguez. Statistically D-Rod has over an 80% takedown defense rate, but that's not a full representation due to the fact he's faces limited grapplers and lower level opposition. While Kevin Lee has faced a murders row of top level talent in last 7 bouts such as current champion Charles Oliveira, Gregor Gillespie, Edson Barboza, Tony Ferguson, and Rafael Dos Anjos to name a few. Not only have these fighters been top tier talent in the division but also 6 of his last 7 opponents were also top level grapplers nullifying Lee's most dangerous weapon. Unable to fully utilized his wrestling against the counter wrestling of those opponents force Lee in uncomfortable positions. With mixed in wins and losses his record could be very misleading but he's faces a lions den of killers. On Saturday night, Lee won't have as much resistance in grappling when facing D-Rod whom although continues to elevate just hasn't been tested. This is a big step up for him while all things considered it's a step down in competition level for Lee. With a 3 inch reach advantage for Kevin and in the smaller Apex cage better to cut angles, this should allow Lee to dictate the pace of the fight. Also add in the fact that Lee, although a UFC vet,.. is only 28 years old!! That's a 6 year difference as D-Rod is 34 and only transitioning into the UFC late in career. I'm very high on D Rod's skill set, but I believe at only -145 provides value with a clear path to victory for Kevin Lee. Some question Lee's cardio, which in spots has looked iffy, but I'm expecting that corrected since the lengthy time he's been out of competition. I believe The Motown Phenom kept the pressure on all fights and either finds a finish or wins on the scorecards.



4% Play: Kevin Lee (-145)

Kyle Anthony- 4% - Edson Barboza -110

Analysis:
In the main event of UFC on ESPN, Edson Barboza faces Giga Chikadze…

This bout will be an absolute delight for viewing purposes (…and wagering!!). Two top level kick boxers square off in the main event and it should be all fireworks! This is another situation where the “newcomer” is actually transitioning into the UFC late in career. Giga is a highly decorated kick boxer but flipped over into MMA late. No doubt he's looked fantastic since entering the organization but facing much lower level talent. That isn't an end all be all, yet it very much matters. For the last 8 years Edson's been battling the elite talent in the division as Giga's been fighting in kick boxing organizations. I'm surprised this line is at pick'em as it's a large step up in competition level for Giga. Most likely this line is closer due to recency bias from Giga's last KO win over Cub Swanson. Of course anyone defeating Cub is impressive, but this was a massive physical advantage for Chikadze, …which he won't have that luxury Saturday night. While Edson Barzboa faced absolute killers with grappling backgrounds it exposed Edson's lack of a ground game. Over that time he's worked relentlessly elevating that part of his game filling in the gaps. One issue Barboza seems to have is facing opponents with pressure. That particular fighting style voids out his kicking attacks smothering distance cutting off a lethal weapon. Many times those fighter output's are higher then Edson, but Giga's shown to statistically throw less. This higher output from Edson is a great sign of allowing him space working against a fellow kick boxer.

In a full on kick boxing match with Edson having the striking volume advantages with slightly longer reach, I'm on him here at even money. Plus, for the first time Edson will have the grappling advantage. Don't be surprised if Barboza level changes putting Giga on his back. Even if Edson gets him down and doesn't keep him there it'll still provide different looks. With Chikadze worrying about takedowns it should open up opportunities to land on the feet. Look out for early hard leg kicks from Barboza as well seeking to slow Giga's movement as the fight goes on.



4% Play: Edson Barboza (-110)

Kyle Anthony- 3%- Sam Alvey +125

Analysis:
In a preliminary bout Sam Alvey faces Wellington Turman…

To start Wellington Turman shouldn't be the favorite.

To start I'd like to say… betting on “Smilin” Sam Alvey never feels comfortable but its the absolute value in this bout. At 25 years old Wellington's attempting to grow within the sport at a young age. Facing a tough vet in Alvey is a lot to overcome after getting flatline KOed by Bruno Silva in round 1 only 2 months ago. Not only that but he was KO'ed in round 1 again just before against Andrew Sanchez. That's a red flag or concern for anyone looking to back Turman with their money. Even at this point in his career Alvey's still a good fighter with heavy hands, a solid chin and cardio. On the feet Sam should outclass Turman's inexperience by out landing with bigger shots. Haven't seen anything from Wellington's striking that Alvey couldn't withstand or counter. Even in grappling situations he's a crafty vet and should be able to handle himself in those situations. If they stand in the center and brawl, Sam should find success against the lackluster defense of Turman… which makes the KO prop live.

Both guys are coming off losses, but at this price Smilin Sam has value at +125. No doubt this line should be flipped and I'm happy wagering on the vet with more tools and experience at plus money.



Play: Sam Alvey (+125)

Good luck getting the same line as Kyle. He seems to always get a 10-20 cent favorable line. It's frustrating.