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i have been waiting for this game and finally its here.<P> giants-7.5 over skins<P>i posted this angle in a different forum a while ago but it really comes into play here so ive decided to share it with freak and the boys.<P> dra. what is it?<P>dra is defensive rush attempts. that is the number of times an offense rushes the defense per game. the lower the number, the better.<P> the reason is defensive supremecy when an offense gets so frustrated running the ball for small gains they feel they must throw the ball.<P> also, teams with low dra are usually winning games and the opposition must pass to catch up.<P> i always look for large differences in dra. last week i took the rams with a dra of 22 compared to jets at 33. easy win.<P> this week is even easier. giants have the best dra in the nfl at 21.5 and the worst, you guessed it, the washington redskins at 40. huge difference here.<P> giants must win this game and will be in a foul mood after two one point losses and will roll here easily against a weak team.<P> this is a strong play for me, i hate the word "lock" but this is as close as they come.<P>good luck

i forgot to mention that if you ever plan on using this stat, you should wait until 6 or 7 games have been played to get a true indication of dra.<P> this my best stat and most successful.<BR> nfl.com under stats is where you can get all the info. it is the best site for this kind of stuff.

Stan, what is the winning % of this stat? (roughly) Is it something that has held true blue over several seasons? How long have you been tracking and playing on squads using this? Also, at what point (differential) do you implement or consider it a play?<P>Very intersting angle.<P><BR>Thanks,<BR>-Stewman21

stew, i havent kept a record of dra but if you go to nfl.com and sort the teams by dra you will find the best teams with the lower number and vice versa.<P> you really cant use this stat when there are small differences in dra. however, the difference in the giants-skins game is huge. i really like playing the underdog with the lower dra. <P> i use it as a starting point when capping a game, then i factor all the other variables(and there is alot as you know) and i make an educated guess.<P> as for the point spread, giants at 21 and washington at 40 is a difference of 19. i consider them as points. that is more than enough to cover at 7.5<P>i realize their maybe skeptics (beanbrain) but all i can tell you is this stat over the years has made me a ton of money.

never even heard of the stat<P>very intersting indeed<P>you learn something everyday<P>BH

i have been around wise guys all my life living in south boston today i was in the club with the boys talking sports as we often do.i told them i have a buddy on the internet that has a system that he has been making a living on betting football its called the dra i was talking to 10 guys as i started to tell them about the defensive rush system i went on explaining for about 5 minutes they were gone i looked over my left shoulder and to my surprize there were 2 men with white coats and a net circling beantownjim i yelled its not me the dra is stan the mans system he makes a living betting football.thanks to stan i spent 2 days in a phych hospital and now im on medication.they let me out of the hospital for 2 hours a day so went to see the goodfellas they told me they called the hospital for my own good.i thanked them because for a minute boys i started to believe stan.they told me to tell stan they have a name for him (ipw i pay weekly)beantownjim

lol. we're buddies now? i cant take you seriously beanbrain because you remind me of this guy i know. most people hate him but he really is a good guy, they just dont know him. <P> anyway, ill come and visit you in the hospital when im in boston.

I like Jags/Ravens Under 34. Jags still have a lot of injuries. But some the defense will be back. Jags offense has scored 13,14,15, and 10 points in the last four games. Ravens D is not the same as last year, on the field a lot. But should still be able to hold the Jags. Ravens, Elvis is still hurting, not 100% and rumor has it that the Ravens were still looking for another running back.

Stan I am a little confused, but I will go to nfl.com and I am sure I will figure it out. But any stat that helps is good, thanks.<p>[color:"#800080" SIZE="1" FACE="Verdana, Arial"][Edited 1 time by tjjacks on 10-24-2001 at 12:05 AM]</font>

EINSTEIN cant figure out stans system so i kind of doubt tjjacks can.my south boston method is still the best every bookie office has a deadbeat mush that never wins i call the office find out who hes playing and go the other way.it just so happens the mush in our office is stan boy i wonder if there is a connection.beantownjim

i use that stat also,ran some numbers last night. that stat alone is 19-13-2 for 59%. i use it a little bit different than you. i use the league avg. as a base. example last week league avg. 27.4 chi avg. 25.0 cin avg.28. play chi. W pit.avg 24 tb.avg 29 pit W stl 22.5 jets 32.3 W nyg 21.5 phil 27.6 play nyg. L this weeks plays would be balt,minn,den,sd,oak,nyg,pitt. would i play these just on that one stat? nope! its just another tool in the toolbox.

agreed hiptwo. as i mentioned i use dra as a starting point.<P> im going to post another angle im working on in football chat knowing freak wants this thread used for picks.

Cincinnati at Detroit <P>The Bengals are still a long way off from being a playoff-caliber squad. They don't respond well to adversity. Once something bad happens they seem to panic and then make costly errors. <P>The Detroit offense has been improving and looked pretty good, but it might not stay that way because of injuries in back-to-back weeks to a couple of their receivers. The Lions must depend on a supporting cast that featured a lot of backups at key positions. Detroit QB Batch has been very accurate lately and should be able engineered a victory here. <P>My wager is on the Lions minus 3 <P>Minnesota at Tampa Bay <BR> The Vikings' biggest problem in the first five games this season was their inability to maintain a high level for four quarters. When they do it they win when they let down they don’t. The have the ability to play with the elite teams in the league.<P>Defensibly the buccaneers still can't stop anyone on third down. Offensively, the team is predictable. <P>Opponents are beginning to notice that almost all their passing plays are geared toward Keyshawn Johnson. Johnson is having a big year, but the team must involve more weapons and it must get better play from the offensive line. <P>I’ll take the Vikings plus 3 <P>San Fran at Chicago<P>The 49ers have been the beneficiaries of a soft schedule early in the season, but the confidence that comes with a 4-1 start will do wonders for a young team that now knows it can win. The 49ers have won close games and overtime games, and they have come from behind to win.<P>The remarkable transformation continued Sunday as the reincarnated Monsters of the Midway surged into first place in the NFC Central shutting out Cincinnati and winning their fourth in a row.<P>Sunday's game at Chicago will be an interesting contest. Both teams are playing better than expected and have tons of momentum. They are also in an early battle for a playoff spot. This game could vault the winner closer to that goal.<P>I’m taking the Bears at minus 2<P>Miami at Seattle<P>Offensively Miami is still a run-first team. When they play the power game they are much better than when they try to outflank defenses. Defensively They have to quit talking about how good their defense is and start showing how good it is.<P>Seattle had a rough start this season. The turnaround came about with the replacement of starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck with backup Trent Dilfer. Holmgren points out that this was hardly the only area of improvement. I disagree though. It looks like Seattle is going back to QB Hasselbeck this week. And I am going to Miami. <P>My wager is on the dolphins minus 2 <P>New England at Denver<P>New England’s QB Brady's play is going to make it very difficult for the coaches to put Drew Bledsoe back on the field once he is 100 percent. . The past two weeks, he's been spectacular. He threw only four incompletions against the Colts on 20 attempts while throwing three touchdowns.<P>Denvers Rather mechanical QB, Griese lacks the creativity to lead his team from behind. He also lacks a big-time arm, and Denver's offense isn't scaring anyone right now. Until Griese can beat teams deep without the injured Ed McCaffrey, teams will continue to blitz and load up on the pass rush.<P>I like the patriots plus 7.5 <P>Hugs&Kisses<BR>Sindy

19-16-1<P>Colts-3<P>BH

overall record 32-27<P>colts -3 over kc.........i really like this one. colts will not play badly again, especially on national tv. kc is very over-rated. just an average team. colts need to kick it into gear, and i think they will tonight. colts by at least 10

jillmark-save yourself the vig and mail me a money order ill back this bet how much do you want on the game.beantownjim

BEANTOWN<P>Instead of ripping everyone apart, Why don't you start posting your games and record? We all could use your incredible knowledge instead of hearing your weak attempts at Comedy.<P>By the way, I'll take a side wager that out of your first 20 NFL picks<BR>Over/Under 11.5 correct?<BR>Want a wager?<P>BH<p>[color:"#800080" SIZE="1" FACE="Verdana, Arial"][Edited 1 time by bloodhounds on 10-25-2001 at 02:11 PM]</font>

bloodhound-you send a nickle to freak money order ill send a nickle winner takes all.i will win 12 out of 20 picks totals included o.k. big mouth.any other members want some action please stand up.beantownjim

Sounds good to me.<P>Pro games and lets say 5 weeks to complete your 20 selections?<P>We need someone to post some lines as well.<P>Good Luck to you,<BR> BH