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Week 7 Oct. 19-20

LW 4-0 +9 stars Season 15-4 +23.7 stars

Bal-2 vs. Cin

The Ravens take Masher back, Jamal Lewis (avg. 23 carries a game @ 6.5 per) and a right fair defense into Cin. this week. In the last four years Bal. is something like 26-3 ATS in games in which they were plus t/o. They also managed to cover a few when they were minus, but the idea here is that surely they can handle Kitna and the Bengal offense that includes a gimpy Corey Dillon, (44 carries @ 3.7 per the entire year) while avoiding laying the ball on the ground themselves. If this team had Dilfer and Shannon Sharp back they would be odds on to win the AFC. Well, at least in my mind. At any rate I think this is a major bargain.
Four stars on the Ravens
TB-3 (bth) Vs. SF

TB is the only team in the NFL that has a complete defense and offense. Although the odds are against any one team going all the way at this point, I feel that the Bucs have the best chance. If they were going into this game 5-0 I mightnot bet it, but they are three wins and two excruciating losses that they are still plenty pissed off about. The Bucs are a mature, proven team and subject to letdowns when not much is on the line, but I don't look for that here. They need to catch the Carolina Panthers.
I thought getting rid of Mariucci was probably a mistake on the Niner's part, now I am sure of it. Erickson has an absolute mess on his hands with the Owens/Garcia thing and the season is threatening to get away from him completely. SFis 2-4 SU 2-2-2 ATS. Three of their losses were by a total of five points, and their stats aren't all that bad. What is bad is that they appear to be a team that is completely demoralized. QB Garcia is a tough guy but he is also beaten up more than he lets on. Tough to get well vs. Messrs. Sapp, Rice, Lynch, Brooks et.al. Four stars on TB

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You are scorching hot. Good luck on todays card, I like them both.

Well, not so hot now.
It's one thing to be stupid, did I have to be greedy too? I'll defend the Bal. pick with my dying breath and will never understand those long pass plays. The TB pick was absolutely stupid. SF has too many professionals on that team to just lie down three weeks in a row. If anybody bothers to read this, beware the Chiefs tonight. The Raiders are gonna want this one bad and they sure as hell need it bad. Porter is supposed to be back and Oak has a fine rookie running back who has shown some stuff already this season. (Justin Vargas, USC) If they suddenly grow a brain and decide to come out and run at a KC defense that is vunerable and likely to be flat, it could be a long nite for KC. I'm taking the over for a small bet.
I apologize for the picks yesterday, hope nobody followed me. Later