NFL Picks Nov.23
LW 3-2 +1.7 stars Season: 24-13 +19.8 stars
Car +3 (8-2, 5-5) at Dal. (7-3, 6-3-1)
This should be a tough, low scoring affair between teams who use very similar approaches. Give Car. a slight edge in the run game, and a slight edge on defense and I think this should be a pick-em. Car. has had success this year on the road in tight games, while Dallas has had a hell of a time scoring vs. good defenses. I would also give Kasay the nod over Billy Cundiff in the place kicking dept. on experience alone. This could well be a field goal game, and I like getting the FG up front. Car for three stars +3.5 (bth).
Ind-3 (8-2, 7-3)
Indy got surprised week before last at Jacksonville, but have managed to outscore every other road opp. this year one way or another. Buf. offense has gone south, with ten pts. or less four of last five. Colts have a lousy run defense, but can put on a pass rush at times. Buff. can’t run the ball without Travis Henry who is listed as questionable, as is Eric Moulds. So, what does ”questionable” mean? I’m not sure, but I’m takin’ Peyton and the boys for two stars -2.5 (bth)
Oak +11 (3-7, 1-8-1) at KC (9-1, 8-2)
Chiefs are not as good as their record would indicate, but until two weeks ago the Raiders were worse than theirs. HC Callahan said this week that he wished he could let Rick Mirer “take full advantage of the system” ( presumably the one that produced the 2-6 record) instead of using the running game all the time. Jerry Rice and Tim Brown must have this guy hypnotized.
Arrowhead is going to be cold and windy. If the Raiders weren’t missing rookie RB Fargas and didn’t have several injuries on the offensive line, I’d take them in a heartbeat and hope they kept with their strategy of the previous two weeks. As it is I think they will find the going tough and I don’t think Rick Mirer can put together another effort like the past two, esp. in a horrible environment like this. Two stars on the under 45.5 Hope KC doesn’t score too many on defense.
Cin-3 (5-5, 5-4-1) at SD (1-9, 3- 7)
The Bengals won their “guaranteed” victory vs. the Chiefs last week. That they are a vastly improved team is unquestionable. Whether they are up to a trip to the West Coast as a favorite is highly debatable. They are 1-3 SU on the road, the three losses coming vs. teams that are now 3-7 each. The days of an automatic paycheck when Marty is a home dog are long gone to be sure, but I think LT and Flutie can keep it close at home. Guarantees usually come with a price. Takin’ the Chargers +3 for two stars.
