Week 13 Nov 27
>LW 1-3 -6 stars Season: 25-16 +13.8 stars
Dal -3 (8-3, 7-3-1) vs. Mia (7-4, 5-6)
While it is true that Miami is only a couple of plays away from a 9-2 record and that they are 4-1 on the road this year, it is also true that they are 1-3 vs. teams with winning records, and that they have a hell of a time putting up
points on a decent defense. Vs. NE, Bal, and Tenn they scored a total of 29 pts. Mia is +9 in t/o in their seven wins this year. They havefour victories in the last four years in games in which they were negative t/os. Although I suspect
many NFL teams are not too far off that stat, it is worth noting that Dallas is only + four t/o in their eight wins this year and have won two games in which they were negative t/os. Dallas has also struggled vs. good defenses, esp on the road, having been shut out by TB and NE. A very decent Buf. unit held them to ten points at Texas Stadium as well. Dallas was able to score 23 and 24 pts at home vs. Phi. and Car. Dallas was able to win (and, alas, cover as well.) last week vs. a tough Car. team. I thought Parcells out
coached John Fox thoroughly, (Who could understand that FG with three minutes to play in the fourth quarter? Field position alone would dictate a try for the end zone.),and that Quincy Carter went a long way towards becoming a competent first line NFL QB. Parcells and Carter also conspired on a slick "option" play for a TD that was an absolute back breaker.
Mia., despite their excellent victory vs. Wsh. and the return of Jay Fiedler, still has problems at WR. Dallas has Galloway back and must be given the edge on offense. Both defenses are about as good as it gets in the NFL these days,
but this pick is based, more than anything else, on the ability of Parcells to get his team ready to play in tough circumstances and to come up with a killer game plan on short notice. If Dallas can keep the t/os at least even, (If
Quincy can keep from completing passes to Surtain and Madison) , they should be able to grind out a win here. I just hope that whatever heart medicine Parcells is on keeps working. Four stars on Dallas-2.5 (bth)
