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HANDICAPPING NFL PLAYOFFS A MAJOR CLASH OF PERCEPTION VS. REALITY...

By Kelso Sturgeon

Having handicapped football for 37 years, I believe bettors need to acquaint themselves with the two universal rules of handicapping as they prepare for the National Football League playoffs. These rules will not make one a better handicapper, simply a more understanding one--and they will enable one to avoid a long stay at the local mental health emporium.

Rule number one says you, as a handicapper, can do everything right and still be wrong.

Rule number two says there is an exception to every rule.

The rules help one to make some sense of the final weekend of the season-a Sunday of play on which the absolutely awful Detroit Lions can beat the powerful St. Louis Rams in a game the latter "had" to win. The rules will also make bearable even the bizarre loss of Minnesota, another team that "had" to win, to the rag-tag Arizona Cardinals.

A grasp of these thoughts will enable handicappers to come to grips with the very real clash of perception and reality when it comes to handicapping the NFL playoffs, a progressive event unlike any world championship played anywhere.

A championship means the best of the best, the crème dela crème. It means classic events such as the Kentucky Derby, the World Series, the NCAA basketball championship, soccer's World Cup-contests where individuals and teams are ready for their finest effort.
That also is the perception most have of the NFL playoffs and the Super Bowl, but the games have little in common with the best of the best. The reality is that pro football teams are so beat up and exhausted after playing five straight months of football they are completely out of gas.

BETTING LINES MAY BE TIGHT, BUT TEAMS JUST TIRED...

The betting lines may be tight, but the teams are just tired.

That is why last year we saw the New York Jets, a 6 1/2-point favorite, win their American Football Conference wild card game against the Indianapolis Colts, 41-0. That is why we saw Tampa Bay crush the San Francisco 49ers, 31-6, in a NFL divisional playoff game, and Oakland crushed the Jets, 30-10, in an AFC divisional playoff game.

The AFC and NFC championship games were not close either, as Tampa Bay (-4) buried Philadelphia, 27-10, and Oakland (-8 1/2) crushed Tennessee 41-24.

In the Super Bowl, where the best meet and where near-perfection is supposed to prevail, it was slop bucket football as Tampa Bay intercepted five Rich Gannon passes and returned three of them for touchdowns as the favored Oakland Raiders (-3 1/2) fell, 48-21.
Thus, in handicapping the NFL playoffs, one must understand that the games being played are presented as the best the league has to offer when, in reality, that is not always the case.

In the case or rule one, you can handicap a game down to the final second, or the final play and still lose because of the hidden factors I call "X-The Unknown". There is no way one can predict the five turnovers and four sacks San Francisco gave up last year in that 25-point playoff loss to Tampa Bay.

Turnovers, penalties, injuries to skill people after the game begins etc. can not be predicted nor handicapped but many times they determine the outcome of a game.

In games where everything goes against you, re "X-The Unknown", you will lose but that does not mean you did not handicap properly.

THE "WHAT IF" FACTOR LOOMS LARGE...

Rule number two should make you stop and handicap against a line that goes something like this-"what if, what if, what if...." There is no rule of handicapping that is not undone during the regular season and I would suggest more often in the playoffs.

Every team has a performance profile that certainly 16 games into the regular season reveals all strengths and weaknesses of every team. Official NFL game analysis game sheets break every team down into 42 basic categories. These categories reveal the things at which at team is good and those at which it is not so good.

These means every single team, every single coach and every single player knows with a reasonable certainty what the other team is going to try to do on offense and what it is going to try to do on defense. Every game during the regular season is a battle of both wits and talent.

Come playoff time, with no secrets left, coaches work the "what if" scenario over and over again trying to figure out to neutralize a team's strengths. As a handicapper, you have analyzed game and are about to bet your money but, before you do, you need to stop and ask a few "what ifs".

What if my starting quarterback, who has been nursing injuries over the past month, gets knocked out of the game? Who will replace him.

Ditto for the starting running back and the wide receivers.

The list of "what ifs" can fill pages but the questions are part of sophisticated handicapping and they must be asked and answered.

THE PROFILE OF A WINNER...

When one accepts the fact every single team in the playoffs is beat up, worn down and almost exhausted, the task becomes to find those that are still playing with some enthusiasm and efficiency. A team that is playing well at this point of the season has a built-in edge over those that are not.

This handicapper would suggest the obvious, i.e. that New England, St. Louis and Indianapolis, despite its home loss to Denver, are playing excellent football at season's end. Teams such as Kansas City are not.

This does not mean New England, St. Louis and Indianapolis have to win, because at this point of the season no one 'has" to win, nor does it mean the Chiefs could not revive themselves and go back to the form that saw them open the season 9-0.

The second major factor in picking winners at playoff time is that of injuries. A football team breaks down in its ability to compete at a high level in direction ratio to the number of injuries it has. While an injured skill player may have a major negative impact on a team, the loss of a starting guard may not. However, if an offensive line loses two or three starters, the problems begin.

There is not a single team in the NFL playoffs that does not have skill people who have suffered severe injuries during the regular season (running back Marshall Faulk of the St. Louis Rams), or who haved played hurt (Tennessee quarterback Steve McNair), hobbling from one game to the next.

Just remember that teams that are playing well and that are healthy have big edges over those who are neither. These teams will more often than not win.

THE HIDDEN SIGNALS THAT WIN...

It is an undeniable fact that the harder a team has to play to win a game at playoff time, the less effort it will be able to give in its next game. Winning football is all about focus and intensity and a tired team can't give it for a full game. A team that has to play its guts out to win, and to stay in the playoffs, will not have a full tank of gas for its next outing.

Many times, teams that were hard-driven in their previous playoff game will play quite well into the second half and then simply fall apart. This means they are mentally whipped, tired, and have lost their focus.

Handicappers must decide how hard a team had to play in its previous game, and then decide whether it will be able to give a 100%, 90% or even a 60% effort in the game it is about to play. The question then becomes can a team with 90% to give beat one that has a 100% full tank of gas?

The bottom line is that all teams are tired right now, but there are some that will work their way through the playoffs and stay less tired than others.

My biggest winning bets at playoff time have come in playing against underdogs that played their guts out to win a game and are playing a team that did not have to put out much effort to win.

Just keep reminding yourself that a team that won its playoff game easily has an edge over one that was straight as a string to win its game and advance.

THE BETTING MENU HAS SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE...

The biggest single sin of all bettors is the tunnel vision that controls their betting. Most bettors keep making straight bets on one team to beat another and fail to realize the real edge in a game might come in a totals bet, a money line bet, a teaser, or even a parlay.

A straight bet is not always the best way to bet a game but most bettors do not look beyond this wager.

When a bettor handicaps a game, he must study it from all angles and determine what bet gives him or her the best chance to cash a ticket. There are dozens of times during the season an over/under bet offers a much bigger edge than taking a side. There are times a money line bet on a game is where the edge lies, especially on betting underdogs, where one can lay $100 to win $150, $200 or even $300, or even more. If the underdog handicaps out as the winner, maybe a straight bet and a money line bet is in order?
There has been no bigger thorn in any bookmaker's flesh this season than that of the teaser bet. Bookmakers love parlay bettors but have a great dislike for those who bet teasers. This alone should make us a consider sometimes betting teasers. If a bookmaker hates them, it only makes sense the bettor should love them.

In betting money lines, teasers or parlays, just remember the risk is a little greater but the reward can be a lot greater.

PATRIOTS, EAGLES STILL FAVORED TO GET TO SUPER BOWL...

The consensus opinion of bookmakers still offering futures odds on the playoffs and the Super Bowl say it will be either Kansas City or New England from the AFC and either St. Louis or Philadelphia from the NFC. This certainly is no divine revelation, but the odds are somewhat interesting.

In the AFC New England is the 3-2 favorite, followed by Kansas City at 2-1 and Indianapolis and and Tennessee at 3-1. In the NFC, Philadelphia is 2-1, followed by St. Louis at 5-2 and Carolina at 7-2.

Even though the Super Bowl teams have not been decided, you can bet the game right now, taking either the AFC (-3) or the NFC (+3).

Futures odds have a certain fascination for all the clairvoyants among us but it must be pointed out that, in football, they have proved a bit hazardous this year.

Defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay was a solid 4-1 pick back in August to go the distance and end up in Houston for XXXVIII on February but the Bucs finished will not even be in the playoffs. The second choice was the Philadelphia Eagles at 5-1, followed by the Oakland Raiders, who had a terrible season at 6-1.

After the Raiders came St. Louis, Pittsburgh and Miami at 8-1, the New York Jets at 9-1 and the Green Bay Packers at 12-1. Kansas City opened at 25-1 and closed at 20-1, while Dallas opened at 60-1 and closed at 40-1.

WINNING BETS IN THE NFL PLAYOFFS BELONG TO THOSE WHO WORK AT IT...


By Kelso Sturgeon

Handicappers and bettors will have to work a little harder, dig a little deeper and read a bit more between the lines this week to find winning bets in the National Football League playoffs. The numbers offered by bookmakers are tighter than at any time during the regular season and they most certainly will reinforce the fact this is no game for boys in short pants.
One can look at any of the four conference playoff games and make a case for each team playing in each one. The favorites are all home teams that drew first-round byes last week, which means the come into these games a bit rested, a bit less dinged up and sore and with fresh legs.
Favorites went 3-1 against the number in last week's wild card games and gave us a sample of what we can expect in the playoffs-from the classic battles, to the blowout to the ho-hum game.
I opened the playoffs going 3-1 and, for the record, here are my plays.

Saturday, January 3
5 Units
Baltimore Ravens (+1) 17, Tennessee 20
3 Units
Carolina Panthers (-3) 29, Dallas Cowboys 10

Sunday, January 4
5 Units
Seattle Seahawks (+7) 27, Green Bay Packers 33
3 Units
Indianapolis Colts (-3) 41, Denver Broncos 10


Tennessee's 20-17 win at Baltimore had all the drama one could handle, as did Green Bay's 33-27 overtime win over Seattle. Then we had that Indianapolis 41-10 blowout of Denver and the Carolina Panthers' ho-hum 29-10 victory over Dallas.
This week we can expect more of the same. We just don't know which teams will be fit into which category.
Heading into this weekend of play, there are many things for which a bettor should look and they are quite basic.
--Teams that have played well the last part of the season have an edge over those that have not.
--Teams that are healthy have a big edge over those that are not.
--Home and road records are never more important they than are right now.
--One has to be open minded about how to bet, never losing sight of the fact one can wager on sides, totals, money lines, half-times, propositions and even parlays and teasers.
--One bet does not fit all games and one should make the wager that offers the best edge, whether it be a side, total etc.
--Teams with game-breaking players have an edge over those that do not.
--There are many intangibles, those things not reflected in statistics, that will impact the outcome of a game.

PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION TO GAME-BREAKERS AND INTANGIBLES...

While most of the elements listed above are obvious and objective, the issue of having a game-breaker on your team is extremely important. Teams such as the Carolina Panthers can methodically grind out a win, which makes them like all other teams in the NFL. The edge with a top skill player more often than not makes the difference between winning and losing in big games.
Everyone has their own special game-breaking players, but no team in the playoffs has as many of them as does the Indianapolis Colts. They have a great quarterback in Peyton Manning, a great running back in Edgerrin James and a fleet of receivers that would make the St. Louis Rams of old jealous.
Everyone knows quarterback Bret Favre of the Green Bay Packers, and his running back Ahman Green are game-breakers. Ditto for Tom Brady of the New England Patriots and Steve McNair of the Tennessee Titans.
These guys, and several others, can win a game on their own-on one key play. Don't forget it.
On the issue of intangibles, one must note handicapping factors such as the bounce theory, an element of handicapping that says when a team plays far above its profile one week, it will play far below it next week, or when it plays far below it one week it will play far above it the next.
We have both the Indianapolis Colts and the Carolina Panthers come into their games this weekend off the best games either has played the entire season. My figures say Carolina played 18 points above its performance profile in beating Dallas and Indianapolis played 30.5 points above its performance profile in trouncing Denver.
One should not make a bet on or against a team on the basis of the bounce factor alone, but it is something one must consider. It is part of the puzzle that produces winners and losers.

ODDS TO GET TO SUPER BOWL...

Here is a rundown of odds as posted at the Mirage in Las Vegas as to which two teams will meet in the Super Bowl.

TEAMS ODDS
Patriots-Eagles 2-1
Patriots-Rams 7-2
Patriots-Packers 7-1
Patriots-Panthers 14-1

Chiefs-Eagles 8-1
Chiefs-Rams 8-1
Chiefs-Packers 16-1
Chiefs-Panthers 30-1

Colts-Eagles 11-1
Colts-Rams 16-1
Colts-Packers 28-1
Colts-Panthers 55-1

Ravens-Eagles 14-1
Ravens-Rams 20-1
Ravens-Packers 40-1
Ravens-Panthers 70-1

Titans-Eagles 10-1
Titans-Rams 15-1
Titans-Packers 25-1
Titans-Panthers 50-1

Broncos-Eagles 14-1
Broncos-Rams 20-1
Broncos-Packers 40-1
Broncos-Panthers 70-1

SOME THOUGHTS ABOUT THIS WEEK'S GAMES...

Saturday, January 10

CAROLINA PANTHERS at ST. LOUIS RAMS

This game is a classic match-up between a blue collar team and one with all the glamour of a Broadway show. Carolina (12-5) arrived here by beating the Dallas Cowboys, 29-10, in workman-like style while 12-4 St. Louis and all its glitz had an opening round bye.
Here are some notes of interest about Carolina.
--The Panthers opened the season 8-2, then went 0-3 in their next three games before closing out the season with three straight wins. They finished the regular season 7-9 against the spread (ATS) but were just 2-6 in that category in their last eight games.
--Going back to last season, the Panthers are 16-6 in their last 22 games.
--They were 3-1 in four overtime games this season.
--Carolina won seven games by three points or less, tying an NFL record set by Arizona in 1998.
--When John Fox, the former defensive coordinator of the New York Giants, too over this team last season, he inherited a team that was 1-15 in 2001. He went 7-9 in his first season and was 11-5 during the regular season this year.
--Carolina has been to the playoffs just once, in the second year of its nine-year existence in the NFL. That appearance came in 1996, where the Panthers defeated Dallas, 26-17, in a conference playoff game and then lost to Green Bay, 30-13 in the conference championship game.
Here are some notes of interest about St. Louis.
--The Rams, who play their games indoors at the 66,000-seat Edward Jones Dome, have one of the strongest home field bias figures in all of football. They went 8-0 straight up and 6-1-1 ATS there this season. Over the past three years, they are 22-4 in the dome.
--St. Louis is a seasoned playoff team. They missed the post-season last year but played in the three previous seasons, reaching the Super Bowl in both 1999 and 2001. In 1999, they beat the Tennessee Titans 23-16 to win the championship and then lost to New England, 20-17, in the 2001 Super Bowl.
--In the totals department, St. Louis had 11 of its 16 games go over the number this season.

TENNESSEE TITANS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

This game, which will be played in he cold of a Massachusetts winter night, brings together two of the toughest teams in the NFL. Both Tennessee (13-4) and New England (14-2) find ways to win. While the Patriots had a first-round bye, Tennessee won on the road at Baltimore, 20-17, on the strength of ageless Gary Anderson's 46-yard field goal with 29 seconds left to play.
These teams met during the regular season, with New England winning at home, 38-30, as a 1-point favorite
Here are some notes of interest about Tennessee.
--Tennessee finished the regular season 12-4 straight up and 9-7 ATS. They were 5-3 on the road and 4-4 ATS in those games. They were 1-4 ATS in their last four regular season games, primarily because of injuries to skill players.
--This is Tennessee's fourth trip to the playoffs in the last five years. They made it to the Super Bowl in 1999 and lost 23-16 to the St. Louis Rams when their fell inches short of the tying touchdown as time ran out.
--Both quarterback Steve McNair and running back Eddie George have been playing through very painful injuries. McNair has had knee, ankle, foot and shoulder problems for much of the season, including a broken bone in his foot, while George suffered a painful shoulder injury in the win over Baltimore. Both have been cleared to play against New England.
Here are some notes of interest about New England.
--New England closed out the season a perfect 12-0 straight up and was 11-1 ATS as they compiled the best record in the NFL. They were 13-2-1 ATS for the regular season.
--The Patriots are a perfect 8-0 straight up and ATS at home this season.
--The Patriots season started with a 31-0 loss at Buffalo and ended at home with a 31-0 win over the Bills.
--New England did not go to the playoffs last year, after winning the Super Bowl over the Rams in 2001. In that game, they were 14-point underdogs.

Sunday, January 11

GREEN BAY PACKERS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

This game matches two teams playing their best football right now. Green Bay (11-6) beat Seattle, 33-27, in overtime last Sunday to get here, while Philadelphia (12-4) had a first-round bye.
These teams met during the regular season in Green Bay, with the Eagles winning 17-14, as 4 1/2-point underdogs.
Here are some notes of interest about Green Bay.
--The Packers opened the season 3-4 and then collected themselves to go 6-1 in the final seven games. They were 10-6 straight up and ATS during the regular season.
--Green Bay and Philadelphia have played seven times over the past 10 years and the Packers are 3-4 straight up but just 1-6 ATS in those games. The Pack is 0-2 in both categories in the two games played in Philadelphia.
--This is Green Bay's ninth trip to the playoffs in the last 11 years. Last season they lost at home in the wild card game to Atlanta, 27-7, and the season before that lost to the St. Louis Rams, 45-17, in a conference playoff game.
--Green Bay has been to the Super Bowl four times and stands 3-1 in those games. It's last Super Bowl win came in 1996 when it defeated New England, 35-21. In 1997, the Packers lost, 31-24, to Denver in the big game.
--Green Bay is 5-3 straight up and ATS on the road this season.
Here are some notes about the Philadelphia Eagles.
--Philadelphia finished the season 11-4-1 ATS this season.
--The Eagles won 10 of their last 11 games, taking nine in a row before losing in overtime to San Francisco, 31-28, before closing out the season with a 31-7 win at Washington.
--The Eagles have been to the playoffs for each of the past three years and are 6-0 straight up in the first two playoff games of those seasons. They are 4-2 ATS in those games.
--Philadelphia started the season 0-2, which means it is 12-2 in its last 14 games.
--The Eagles were 0-2 at home in their first two games and went 5-1 in their next six.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

This game, matching the Indianapolis Colts (13-4) and the Kansas City Chiefs (13-3), has all the makings of a classic offensive battle. Both teams know how to get the ball into the end zone. The Colts earned their trip here by crushing the Denver Broncos, 41-10, last week. KC had a first-round bye.
Here are some notes of interest about Indianapolis.
--Indianapolis closed out the regular season 12-4 straight up and 9-6-1 ATS.
--The Colts were an outstanding road team this season, going 7-1 straight up, with the only loss coming at Jacksonville, 28-23. They were 5-2-1 ATS in those eight games.
--This is the Colts' fourth trip to the playoffs in the last five years and the win over Denver was the first time in that time frame they managed to get past the first game.
--They play their home games indoors in a dome and will be playing outside.
Here are some notes of interest about Kansas City.
--The Chiefs opened the season 9-0 and then finished 4-3 as their defense seemed to come unglued. They finished 10-6 ATS.
--Kansas City has one of the strongest home field bias figures in the NFL. They are 8-0 straight up and 6-2 ATS there this season.
--Kansas City has gone 13-0 straight up in its home games dating back to last season and is 14-1 at home in its last 15.
--This is Kansas City's first trip to the post season since 1997, where they lost in the conference playoffs to Denver. 14-10