LW 1-2 +1.8 stars Season 34-31 +2.5 stars
If the NFL playoff system hadn’t magically produced the two best defensive teams in the league, I wouldn’t have a problem. (Denver would have been a possible exception.) Alas, my Super bowl was likely last week with five stars on the Panthers.
I am also unable to offer much in the way of analysis that hasn’t already been covered in prior posts. These are two extremely rude defenses with plenty of speed and attitude and with no respect for QBs and wide receivers whatsoever. Neither team has an offense that could in any way be considered remarkable, their respective defenses having dispatched every remarkable offense in sight.
NE has been by far the most consistent team in the league this year. Their 16-2 record included 14 covers. You’d probably have to go to the Forty Niner teams of the late eighties to find anything approaching that from a team that was considered the front runner in their division in the preseason. They were so quiet about it too. Almost completely escaped my notice.
Carolina’s rise followed a slightly different trajectory. Their five game winning streak at the beginning was followed by much wobbling in the mid season, (including an insidious six game non-cover streak) before they got it together again at the end.
NE beat Co-MVPs McNair and Manning in successive playoff games at home to get here while Carolina won as underdogs in Stl. and Phi. after dismantling the over-achieving Cowboys at home. As a rule I try to avoid judgements that derive their substance from means metaphysical, but the Carolina team seems to have undergone a melding process in those three games that has elevated them to near-New England-quality. They get meaner and gain confidence with practically every series and are actually a much better team than they were at the end of the season. Meanwhile, NE just plays the same old boring, winning, football.
Here is the bottom line for me: I think N.E. has the best chance to win, not so much because of any wide differential in talent, but because of their edge in experience and leadership. Carolina could become disoriented and confused and give up a couple of cheap Tds. and let the game get away early, but I am betting that won’t happen. In fact, Carolina COULD win this thing, especially if they don’t allow Ty Law to perform his usual miracles. My hope is that the game is a close one and turns on a run back, int. return, blocked kick, etc. At any rate, I think the teams are closer than the 2-1 odds on NE. Carolina +7.5 (bth) three stars
