Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar First and Goal Discussion: Issue with IND / TENN game???

Ok, so it is really not an issue, so to speak. More like I am wondering if my thinking is wrong on this spread thing, lol. As most know, I am really new to this NFL thing, although I gotta say, I am really enjoying it. Well, TomG asked what my thinking on this game was, and so here it is, am hoping to maybe get some feedback as to whether or not I am understanding this spread thing, and how it is put together, lol.

OK, here goes:

I thought that I read somewhere, that when they (the powers that be? or whoever does this, lol) start to figure the spread, they start by favoring the home team by 3 points, then they make adjustments to that, accordingly, based on all sorts of other stats, to come up with the final points spread.

So, in this case, they would start by assigning (-3) to TENN, since it is AT TENN. Then make adjustments, right? If this is the case, then the way I see it, and I know that this is probably REALLY backwards thinking, but, I see it as them, (the spread people, I guess? LOL) in a way saying that "we are gonna favor IND, by 2". So the 2 Points comes off the TENN side of the equation, and that's how ya end up with that (-1)Spread for TENN. I guess what I mean, and maybe I am making it confusing the way that I am stating it, but I think that even though the spread technically says that TENN is a favorite by 1 point, I read that to mean that IND is actually picked by the people making the spread by 2 point. Am I making sense?

Anyway....to go further with it, just to really confuse you all, and show you how backwards my thinking is here, lol. If that is true....How does it match up to the stats?

Well, it could mean that it will be a close game...sure, of course, they have a virtually identical record, last year that is. Both teams went 12 - 4.

Ok, so if this 2 point thing that I am thinking is even plausible, where would they (people doing the spread) come up with this??? Looking at when they faced each other last year, IND womped TENN (33 - 7) the first time that they played each other last year, but the second time, only won by 2 points (29 - 27), which was when they played AT TENN, like they will this week.

Then the last thing that I look at, is the preseason. Most say that preseason is irrelevant. BUT, what I look for is, were there any commonalities to who they both played preseason, if so, what was the outcome. In this case, they both played BUFF, both beat BUFF, but IND beat BUFF by more, not much more, but by more, nonetheless.

Anyway, fairly sure who I am gonna pick for this game, but am not posting it here, lol. Anyway, TomG, ya didn't ask who I would pick, just what was my thinking on this game, so that was my thinking on it, lmao! I know I have some crazy ways of thinking about it, but that's just my opinion, I guess.

Anyone else have any thoughts on this game? TomG, what are your thoughts here, since you are the one who asked me, I would love to hear your thinking on this one, and anyone else's as well!

Freebird..Oh you poor baby..you are a hell of a sport to get in Badman contest.We will take this slowly as you will enjoy games/contests more when you have some feel as to process. It is 5:00AM here in Las Vegas and I just took an ambien to go to sleep as I seem to get manic when I get intense as it takes about 2 weeks to get up to speed on what players are playing for what teams as players are moving from team to team constantly due to what is called salary cap problems.This is the age of parity in the NFL and now more than ever the statement that "any NFL team on any given Sunday can beat any other team" is very true.OK the opening line comes from an oddsmaker here in Vegas named Kenny White who is a respected handicapper.He consults with other handicappers that work for him and they try to come up with a number where they think the players will bet each team equally That is to say they opened up Green Bay-9 vs the Bears. At this number they expect the players to bet approx the same amount of momey on each team...this is what they are striving for. Ideally for the casinos they want 550K bet on Green Bay -9 and 550K on Chi +9. If the game is not a push they win the vig and collect the losing tickets of 550k tomg

OK, I get that. It totally makes sense. AND, thanks to Freak's post awhile back, entitled "Who Pays the Vigorish", I know what that is, lol. Ok, so I am sure that prior to that post, everyone EXCEPT I, already knew what it was, lol. BUT, as a new person to all this, I am just learning. But, I am a quick learner, at least I would like to think so, lmao. AND, thanks to Freak and other guys like you, I am sure to eventually get the edge on the situation. That's what I like about this site. Better than learning from any book out there. Real people, real advice....real lessons, lol. OK, will now get down from my FREAKSFORUM soapbox, lol.

Thanks for your reply TomG,
Freebird <img border="0" title="" alt="[Cool]" src="images/icons/cool.gif" />

Tennessee -3 to -1.5 is very disrespectful. Look for a shootout play the over 47 (have you ever seen a tennessee gamme at 47 before).

To expound on what Tom was saying, LVSC comes up with a consensus line from their group. They send it over to the Stardust, who looks at the lines, and either goes with them, or massages them into what they feel people will bet equal on.

Now the fun part. They have a lottery, and you get to go up and bet up to $2000 on any the games they have listed up to I think 3 games. The reason they do this, is the guys coming and betting this money, is looking for soft lines. They pound what they perceive to be the soft lines, and the Stardust adjusts the lines as the bets come in.

The other sportsbooks in town, post up the lines after this process.

Now later in the week when the so called great handicappers release a pick on one of these games, the line moves and quick. Do these guys win all the time, heck no.... actually they lose more than they win.

You can tell when it happens, the line pops a few points either way...

Hope that helps.

If anyone wants to add, do so..... that's what this site is all about.

Freebird.. Happy for your daughter..I only have 1 girl but she is the love of my life..sorry you are ill. Anyway Freak summed up very well how the
opening line is developed.If the action is about equal the line will not move. However if action comes in strong on a team the line will move.Example; Tenn opened -3 and most of the money came in on Indy which is +1 right now. The sports book is inviting people to bet Tenn-1 to try and get tenn money to balance up the game.Anyway good handicappers set thir own line Sunday night..I have been doing this for years. Monday AM I check around and bet games where my line is 1-2 points different from opening lines that come out Sunday.Now if I am a better linemaker then the service guy the betting will drift to my line and my bets placed Monday will be at the best line avalible to me at that time.I know this is confusing so let me give you an example. I set my line on tenn/indy at a pick and Monday I was able to get Indy + 3 (note official opening line.) Therefore, whether I lose or not I and some other guys have Indy +3 so we have the best number. I don't know how many people set their own line (freak probably does) but the guys that are good are always getting the best number cause their linesetting ability is tops.A lot of factors go into setting the line and probably the most heavily weighed factor for me is how motivated is the team to play (emotion is very important) because you literally sacrifice your body to win the game.You are in a lot of pain for the next few days and literally live in a hot tub.Now Tenn won their first game 17-7 against a very weak Miami team and Indy lost to defending super bowl champs at NE by 3 points in a game they should have won. Also Miami turned the ball over 3 times pretty much making it a gift for Tenn
Now Indy is now 0-1 vs Tenn 1-0 for the current season.Indy will be very motivated to not go 0-2.
Also at the beginning of the season you investigate acquisitions/departures for every team.Tenn lost WR McCareins (2nd leading WR last yr),DE Kearse(9.5 sacks LY),
DT Robaire, and TE Wycheck. They also let RB George go (probaby no big lost) and his back-up from last year Chris Brown is their featured back and is 50/50 for the game.So if Indy does not cover the +3 I will be disapointed to say the least. So as you can see Freebird a lot of effort is required to beat the NFL...you have to do your homework. I will check with Freak to see if I can give you a couple websites to get Stats each week. Basically you are looking for a team that is highly motivated and can rush the ball well. In general do not like teams that do not defend the run well and also can not rush for about 125 yds/game. Get a copy of USA Today Monday and you can see the game breakdown stats. Anther very important stat is average/rush.. you like to see 5 or better. Anyway despite all this turnovers can kill you..Rams would have covered easily last week but turned over the ball 3 times.Az did not turn the ball over and even though they were outgained 448yd to 260yds covered the spread. Turnovers of course can not be predicted so you try to avoid these teams that turnover the ball more than the average. This is where good coaching comes into play. The chaotic nature of the universe also comes into play here..hope I helped a little because because I love this game of football and the more you understand it the more you will enjoy it.
Regards,
tomg

Ty Again tomG. I love to obtain all the info that I can. I started collecting stats about a month ago, to teach myself a bit about the game, and prepare for Bad Man contest.

I put together a Binder for myself to use as a reference. In it I have all the basic game stats for the last 5 years for each team. Who beat who and by how much. Also, can quickly see which teams seem to be getting better year after year, and vice versa. So, when I choose my teams that is the first thing that I look at.

Then If I still have doubt, I look very closely at their record from the previous weeks. I try to compare all the Team Stats to see how they weigh against each other; Passing Offense, Rushing Offense, Passing Defense, and Rushing Defense, as well as both total Offense and Defense.

Then I check the injured lists for both teams. As well as which teams are talking more Smack about the other (kinda goes along with the motivation factors). Then I still look at some "goofy stuff" as well.

For example, because of the hurricane, New Orleans missed some practice this week, as they had to move their training to Texas, then back to New Orleans for the game! Plus, when I compared this to the stats from last week, San Fran played better BOTH offensively and defensively than New Orleans. The only thing that I didn't like this week about San Fran was that Ken Dorsey is an unproven QB that is starting, I think. But, I am hoping that the other factors will weigh in more heavily, and I took San Fran with the points. So, we will see.

Anyway, guess that's it for now. Keep the advice coming, it really helps! AND, thankfully tomG I am no longer ill, that was a really old post. But, I appreciate the concern.

Tom/Freak,

Thanks for passing along that information. Very informative. Your comments verified a prinicipal that I have been using for the last several years.

Freak,

It would be great if there was a FAQ built on Handicapping. Just a thought.

There is a whole area called the Gamblers Edge.....

All people have to do is ask away, and answers will likely come forth.

<img border="0" title="" alt="[Smile]" src="images/icons/smile.gif" />

</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">Originally posted by FREAK:
<strong> There is a whole area called the Gamblers Edge.....

All people have to do is ask away, and answers will likely come forth.

<img border="0" title="" alt="[Smile]" src="images/icons/smile.gif" /> </strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">Good to know and glad that I asked!