Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar Selections Central The Unfair Advantage NFL 2021-22

Rules for 2022-23:

1. Only 1 & 2 unit plays… but can bump it up to 3 a max of one per week
2. Sides of -129 or better vig (unless, max one per week, I like a play and don’t feel like shopping lines, waiting, etc, and it’s relatively close)
3. Max two teams on a “tease,” period. Max -200, only one per week.
4. Sides of 65% or less of public support on covers.com (unless, and a max of one per week, line is also moving with public favorite relatively hard)
5. No moneylines, parlays, totals, or live plays

9/11 NFL

6.5 Point Tease of Indy to -0.5 & Balt to -0.5 for 3 units
SF -6.5 (-127) for 1 unit
LVR +4 (-121) for 1 unit

Tease is -130, forgot to mention that one! GL all

Btw - thank you Bobby, BOL to you too!

FYI… Very glad I did not T is the Rams up against my home team… That would’ve been a horrible way to start the season! I should also mention that I was strongly considering the Saints and the Eagles, but got off of both games because they just feel too easy and fishy. The whole point of the name unfair advantage and even going back years was all about picking those ugly games. Either manipulating the lines in an efficient fashion because the lines themselves are quite sharp or going against the herd.

Tease the rams*

I’m pretty happy with where I landed. Baltimore and Indy, I like the tease, I like San Francisco wanting to make a statement with Trey Lance. I can see them wanting to score again if they are up 4 with four or five minutes left, and the first game on the board that caught my eye was the Raiders. Sometimes I’m able to get off the first instinct, but I’ve been listening to Colin cowherd a lot I guess? lol

YTD: 0-3, -6.4 units

Lol nice to see I started this season like I ended last years Reg season *ginormous eye roll*

And…. rules are tossed out the window - they’re good guidelines, but there also has to be a feel. I was feeling it last year.. weird bets at the beginning of the year; funky stuff.. it was working. Just gotta make every play something I can sleep at night with. I’m actually cool with the ones today, they just didn’t fall my way.

9/19 & 9/20 NFL

Mixed Bag (5 Plays) LAR -2.5, DEN -2.5, SF ML, GB ML, BUF ML (+205) for 3 units

I want to take something I always do when handicapping NBA and apply it to the NFL a little bit. I always take into account necessity and emotions in the NBA, especially the regular season, I should be doing it here. Denver outplayed Seattle statistically and Houston was gifted turnovers, The Rams need to beat a team like Atlanta by at least three at home if they want to be a contender this year, San Francisco cannot afford to go down 0–2 and once again, Seattle probably shouldn’t have won in week one. Green Bay at home against a team they historically have dominated seems like a near must win for them and while I historically have not handicapped my hometown Buffalo Bills well, they are a good football team and this is the home opener. Tennessee is not as good as the team that racked up wins to earn the ones he had last year I don’t think. wish me luck and here is to everyone having a great week!

9/22 NFL

Cleveland -4 (-118) for 2 units

YTD: 1-3, -0.25 units

9/25 NFL

7-ish point tease of ATL to +7.5 & LAR to +4.5 (-125) for 1 unit
7-ish point tease of ATL to +7.5 & CIN to -0.5 (-110) for 1 unit
Indianapolis +6 (-120) for 1 unit
Washington +7 (-125) for 1 unit
Mixed Bag (3 Plays) ATL +1, LAR +7.5, CIN ML (+216) for 1 unit

YTD: 2-3, +1.75 units

9/26 NFL

9-ish point tease of Dal to +10.5 & Dal/NYG Over 29.5 (-180) for 1 unit

YTD: 6-4, +5.7 units

9/29 & 10/2 NFL

7-ish point tease of CIN to +4.5 & GB to -2* (-165) for 3 units
Cincinnati -3 (-137) for 1 unit

*the odds offered were the same for -2 or -2.5 for me and it interpreted the ticket as a parlay - so I chose -2 just in case that would somehow qualify as a push. The play is designed for -2.5, because with most - a push on a tease is a loss, so I always try to use half points strategically.

YTD: 7-4, +6.7 units

10/2 NFL

7.5-ish point tease of IND to +4.5 & WASH to +11* (-148) for 2 units

YTD: 8-4, +7.7 units


Pending:
7-ish point tease of CIN to +4.5 & GB to -2* (-165) for 3 units

*the asterisks will show that I always mean to get a play that line to that number and a half point if it is a true tease and a push would lose. My local casino is interpreting these plays as parlays (I believe) and giving the same (and sometimes weirdly like a small amount better bc of an error somewhere) weight for that number or that number with the hook. So if I can potentially earn myself a partial win (with one portion a push) for the same price, I’m going to do it.

YTD: 9-5, +7.7 units

Just for advice to myself .. I’ve been avoiding expert plays .. just trying to DMOR lol.. reminder to future Jeff.. gotta win and/or lose on your own stuff.

10/9 NFL

Mixed Bag (4 Plays) GB +3.5, BUF -2.5, MIN +3.5, TB +3.5 (-125) for 3 units

10/10 & 10/16 NFL

Mixed Bag (3 plays) KC +4.5 (10/10), TB ML (10/16), LAR ML (10/16) (-130) for 3 units

YTD: 9-6, +3.95 units

Dang those Packers in London - but I still think they’ll win this week. I just don’t think they’re a good enough play to make this a 4 play mixed bag, not with a plus units season pretty close to on the line. But about this play.. do I like KC at home? I don’t love em but I think they’re a machine. Don’t love em bc of a trappy game in between the Bucs and Bills, but does LV give up late stuff back door to even potentially lose it? Yeah. I like Carr & LV - but idk if this is the year for em. If they’re able to pull it off in Arrowhead I’ll be impressed and very surprised if it’s by 5 or more. Do I like the super bowl champs with their season on the line at home against a team that just fired their coach? Yeah I do. 11 is an ugly number to lay the lumber but gives me confidence in them. And lastly, Tom Brady. Man I’ve bet on this guy a lot over the year. I was at that Pit/Buf game yesterday.. I thought Pit was bad before that game, now I’m pretty convinced. It was so easy for the Bills. Three plays in, it was over. Pit has grit, they’re solid.. just not talented enough. I like Kenny over Mitch tho he made some passes. They’re just a triple A team right now against a potential Super Bowl contender.

10/16 NFL

Mixed Bag (2 plays) Balt +3.5 & Cin +4 (-124) for 1 unit