Keeneland Breeders' Cup Saturday Tip Sheet - November 5
KEENELAND TIPS - SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 05, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 62% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 10:30 AM ET
BEST BET: #4 ARABIAN KNIGHT
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 2-1 4 Arabian Knight J R Velazquez
PLACE 9-2 6 Fashion King T Gaffalione
SHOW 4-1 12 Reagan L Saez
WILD CARD 12-1 1 Dakota Run D Cohen
ALTERNATE 1 8-1 10 Expect More I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 8 Rocket and Roll J Rosario
* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-12 BOX, 12-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/12 BOX, 1/6/12 BOX
RACE #2 $195,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:05 AM ET
BEST BET: #2 NAKATOMI
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 9-2 2 Nakatomi T Gaffalione
PLACE 4-1 3 Messier J R Velazquez
SHOW 6-1 6 Long Range Toddy L Saez
WILD CARD 6-1 5 Gun It J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1 30-1 12 No Shirt No Shoes K R Jordan
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 14 Fortin Hill J Castellano
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
RACE #3 $1,000,000 STAKES
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:50 AM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M BC FILLY AND MARE SPRINT GRADE I
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 3-1 8 Goodnight Olive I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE 6-1 13 Echo Zulu R Santana Jr.
SHOW 15-1 1 Slammed F Geroux
WILD CARD 8-1 7 Obligatory J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1 4-1 4 Ce Ce V Espinoza
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 12 Lady Rocket J Rosario
* EXACTA: 8/1,4,7,12 ,13 & 1,4,7,12,13/8
* TRIFECTA: 8,13/1,7,8,13/1,4,7,8,12,13
COMMENTS: GOODNIGHT OLIVE has not been challenged in her last five races and ran her best fractions last out. ECHO ZULU will have to hustle to get to the front. A bullet work in her last training session says she will be up to the task. SLAMMED is the inside speed riding the rail. She could make it really hard for other fast horses to clear her before the turn. OBLIGATORY will have plenty of pace to chase. She should blow by tiring horses down the stretch.
RACE #4 $1,000,000 STAKES
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:29 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M BC TURF SPRINT GRADE I
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 7-2 6 Highfield Princess J Hart
PLACE 2-1 8 Golden Pal I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW 8-1 4 Campanelle L Dettori
WILD CARD 6-1 11 Casa Creed L Saez
ALTERNATE 1 15-1 7 Arrest Me Red J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 12 Bran V Cheminaud
* EXACTA: 6,8/4,6,7,8,11,12
* TRIFECTA: 6,8/4,6,8,11/4,6,7,8,11,12
COMMENTS: HIGHFIELD PRINCESS found her form winning three Group I races in a row and is two for two in short sprints. GOLDEN PAL has a lot of early burst and is coming off her fastest race to date. She could be a lot better in round two off the sidelines. CAMPANELLE loves these short trips around the track with three wins and a third in four tries. The third was on a soft track. She prefers a firmer course which is what she will get. CASA CREED is a straight pace play. She has the most late pace in the field as the lone pure closer and will have plenty of speed to chase.
RACE #5 $1,000,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:10 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M BC BIG ASS FANS DIRT MILE GRADE I
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 7-2 5 Gunite T Gaffalione
PLACE 9-2 6 Laurel River I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW 8-1 3 Pipeline F Prat
WILD CARD 5-2 7 Codys Wish J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 1 9-2 9 Cyberknife F Geroux
ALTERNATE 2 30-1 1 Slow Down Andy M Gutierrez
* EXACTA: 3,5,6,7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3,5,6,7/5,6/1,3,5,6,7,9
COMMENTS: GUNITE was better from the gate to the wire in his last race. He will be hard to pass if he keeps the lead into the stretch. LAUREL RIVER should sit right behind the leaders and use his race best late pace to catch them for the photo. PIPELINE and CODYS WISH faced each other three times in the last nine races. CODYS WISH won the last one but PIPELINE owns the other two.
RACE #6 $2,000,000 STAKES
1 3/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:50 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $2M BC FILLY AND MARE TURF STAKES GRADE I
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 7-2 11 In Italian J Rosario
PLACE 9-2 4 Above the Curve J R Velazquez
SHOW 5-2 3 Nashwa H Doyle
WILD CARD 10-1 12 Moira L Dettori
ALTERNATE 1 20-1 1 Lady Speightspeare L Saez
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 5 Tuesday R L Moore
* EXACTA: 3,4,11,12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3,4,11,12/3,4,11/1,3,4,5,11,12
COMMENTS: IN ITALIAN will try to go wire to wire for the sixth time in nine races. Her resume says she should pop in the second start after a layoff. ABOVE THE CURVE and NASHWA essentially tied in their last race. Both should contend again. We will give ABOVE THE CURVE a slight edge as she will be more forwardly placed and likely to encounter less traffic. MOIRA started her career with five all weather races and tried turf for the first time last out. She just missed in the first grass go and will likely be better today.
RACE #7 $2,000,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $2M BC SPRINT GRADE I
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 4-5 9 Jackies Warrior J Rosario
PLACE 4-1 2 Kimari J L Ortiz
SHOW 12-1 5 Aloha West L Saez
WILD CARD 20-1 3 O Besos T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1 20-1 8 C Z Rocket F Prat
ALTERNATE 2 30-1 10 Willy Boi C Sutherland
* EXACTA: 2,9/2,3,5,8,9,10
* TRIFECTA: 2,9/2,3,5,9/2,3,5,8,9,10
COMMENTS: JACKIES WARRIOR is likely to get tested in this race and work to get the win. He should get the job done as the most complete horse from start to finish. KIMARI is two for two at the distance and can show more in his second start after a layoff. ALOHA WEST has been running well over the Keeneland track with a pair of bullet workouts. O BESOS is a very consistent performer and will be making up ground late.
RACE #8 $2,000,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:10 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $2M BC MILE GRADE I
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 10-1 11 Annapolis I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE 9-2 13 Kinross L Dettori
SHOW 7-2 4 Modern Games W T Buick
WILD CARD 8-1 14 Domestic Spending F Prat
ALTERNATE 1 30-1 2 Shirls Speight L Saez
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 8 Regal Glory J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 4,11,13,14 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4,11,13,14/4,11,13/2,4,8,11,13,14
COMMENTS: ANNAPOLIS is marching up the performance ladder and is a pair of seconds from being undefeated in seven. KINROSS is on a four race win streak and is just two necks from six of his last seven. MODERN GAMES won both of his North American races with ease. He likes the distance too with three wins and two seconds in five tries. DOMESTIC SPENDING makes his return to racing after more than a year off. If he regains his old form then 8 to 1 will look like a gift.
RACE #9 $2,000,000 STAKES
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:55 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $2M BC DISTAFF GRADE I
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 3-1 1 Malathaat J R Velazquez
PLACE 9-5 6 Nest I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW 6-1 8 Society F Geroux
WILD CARD 9-2 7 Search Results F Prat
ALTERNATE 1 4-1 4 Clairiere J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 2 Blue Stripe H I Berrios
* EXACTA: 1,6,8/1,2,4,6,7,8
* TRIFECTA: 1,6,8/1,6,8/1,2,4,6,7,8
COMMENTS: MALATHAAT is not all that far from winning all 13 of her career races. The most she has been beaten by is one and a half lengths. NEST has three wins and a second on an off track in four at the distance. SOCIETY won five of six races. The lone miss followed a stumble and bump at the break. SEARCH RESULTS has the best combination of early and late ability.
RACE #10 $4,000,000 STAKES
1 1/2 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:40 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $4M BC TURF GRADE I
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 9-2 2 War Like Goddess J Rosario
PLACE 7-2 7 Nations Pride W T Buick
SHOW 15-1 1 Bye Bye Melvin F Lynch
WILD CARD 3-1 5 Rebels Romance J Doyle
ALTERNATE 1 15-1 13 Highland Chief J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 4 Broome I Ortiz Jr.
* EXACTA: 1,2,5,7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,2,5,7/2,7/1,2,4,5,7,13
COMMENTS: WAR LIKE GODDESS ran the highest last race speed figure in a Grade I win in her last and the fourth consecutive increase. NATIONS PRIDE really did not have to work that hard to win his last race as the heavy favorite. He should have plenty in the tank for today. BYE BYE MELVIN can take them wire to wire if he can get away with the right fractions. REBEL ROMANCE has won all his races since moving to turf but none against any of the top European names. This will be his stiffest competition.
RACE #11 $6,000,000 STAKES
1 1/4 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:40 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $6M BC CLASSIS GRADE I
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 3-5 4 Flightline F Prat
PLACE 6-1 2 Life Is Good I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW 10-1 7 Olympiad J Alvarado
WILD CARD 5-1 6 Epicenter J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1 15-1 5 Hot Rod Charlie T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 1 Taiba M E Smith
* EXACTA: 2,4/2,4,6,7
* TRIFECTA: 2,4/2,4,6,7/1,2,4,5,6,7
COMMENTS: Everybody wants to see the battle between FLIGHTLINE and LIFE IS GOOD. That is what we will likely see. Both horses should be forwardly placed and could run one two all the way around the track. OLYMPIAD won seven of his last eight races including one at todays distance in his last. EPICENTER is a three year old facing off against elite four year olds. Overcoming the age difference can be a big ask at three.
RACE #12 $350,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:20 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $350,000 FALL HARVEST STAKES
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 6-5 5 Shantisara F Prat
PLACE 15-1 3 Burning Ambition F Geroux
SHOW 3-1 7 Technical Analysis J L Ortiz
WILD CARD 15-1 8 Sunny One J Graham
ALTERNATE 1 7-2 4 Dalika B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 6 Henrietta Topham T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 5/3,4,7,8
* TRIFECTA: 5/3,4,7,8/3,4,6,7,8
COMMENTS: SHANTISARA ran the top last race speed figure and drops in class. BURNING AMBITION has upped her speed figure four races in a row and never missed the money in seven races. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS tends to win when she is the favorite. She will not be the favorite here unless the top choice scratches. SUNNY ONE ran some better early fractions last out despite going a little longer.
