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NBA 6/12

Golden State ML -175 for 2 units
Boston +10.5 & Over 202.5 (-109) for 2 units

YTD: 13-7, +12.9 units

NBA 6/16

Boston +5.5 & Over 202.5 (-112) for 2 units

YTD: 14-8, +12.7 units

YTD: 14-9, +10.4 units

Reminder to a future me.. stick to sides 9 times out of 10 vs totals.. and don’t chase parlays, it’s hard enough to win one. Do two separate plays if there are two plays.

4/7/23 NBA

2 Team Parlay LAL to -10 & Atl to -10 (+195) for 1 unit

lol at my last post and then I sign on to play this..

Record from beginning of thread in 2021: 14-10, +9.4 units

Yuck, split of course.

NBA 4/14

Minnesota -5 (-120) for 2 units

The only points I generally consider buying in NBA are around 5 (+ or -) and the price was -112 for the -5.5 anyway, so I got hooked into buying the hook down to 5. FYI - buying hooks is not usually considered a wise or savvy move if you play long enough and enough in general. If I played every day or professionally, I would not likely buy hooks (at least I don’t think).

NBA 4/15

Philadelphia -8.5 for 1 unit
Atlanta +9.5 for 1 unit
Cleveland -5 for 1 unit
6 Series Play (Milw, Bos, Phil, Cle, Den, Pho) +178 for 1 unit

Overall thread (how record will be kept now & moving forward): 15-10, +11.4 units

NBA 4/16

Memphis -4 for 2 units

Thread: 16-12, +10.2 units

Walked into the trap! I guess Lakers are gonna move forward..? I didn’t think they were *actually* good enough

16-13, +8 units

4/17 NBA

Philadelphia -10 for 1 unit
Brook/Philly Under 213 for 1 unit
Brooklyn Team Points Under 101.5 (-120) for 1 unit

4/18 NBA

Atlanta +10 for 1 unit
Cleveland -6 for 1 unit
Phoenix -8 for 1 unit
4 Team Moneyline Play (Cle & Pho (4/18), Milw (4/19), & GS (4/20)) +226 for 1 unit

4/19 NBA

Memphis -0.5 for 2 units
Milwaukee -9 for 2 units

Yes I hate the fact that I’m getting this at 9. I liked it even without Giannis at like .. idk 6?

4/20 NBA

2 Team Moneyline Play (Pho & GS (4/20)) for 2 units (-127)

What the heck is up with these epic line movements lately? I woke up thinking yeah I’ll lay the lumber with the Warriors -5, 5.5, 6 ish and I think I’ll take the -2.5 Suns as a cheap ML play. My casino had the Suns as like -8.5, it’s crazy. Obviously the early bird gets the worm with these playoff matchups.

Pending:
4 Team Moneyline Play (Cle & Pho (4/18), Milw (4/19), & GS (4/20)) +226 for 1 unit
6 Series Play (Milw, Bos, Phil, Cle, Den, Pho) +178 for 1 unit

2023 NBA Playoffs (includes play in game(s)): 9-4, +6.5 units
Thread: 23-14, +15.9 units

Don’t super love anything today or tomorrow, may take a couple days off.

Pending:
6 Series Play (Milw, Bos, Phil, Cle, Den, Pho) +178 for 1 unit

2023 NBA Playoffs: 11-4, +10.8 units
Thread: 25-14, +20.2 units

4/23 NBA

2 Team Moneyline Play (GS & Bos (4/23)) (-129) for 2 units
Cleveland +2.5 for 1 unit

I thought about this a lot. I thought about taking Cleveland to +5.5, I thought about taking Boston to +2.5 or so in that play, but I thought about my history and how I approach these different plays and I decided that I should keep sticking with not buying hooks (around 5 I may make exceptions to buy a push, not a win) or manipulating lines and just letting the chips fall as they may. Regarding the multiple team moneyline plays, I like those to an extent, and I think they’re ok. As long as that is not the main focus of my strategy. In NFL also, I have made plays like that, but when it becomes excessive is usually when things can go sideways. So balancing a disciplined against the spread strategy with occasional Moneyline plays (usually multiple teams bc I think betting a ton of -335 Moneyline plays isn’t the way to go) is how I should go with The Unfair Advantage. Future Jeff, I hope you read this and stick to it. FYI, Cleveland -5.5 would’ve been around a -195 play.. that’s too much juice, buddy.

4/24 NBA

Milwaukee -5 (-130) for 2 units
Memphis +5 (-120) for 1 unit

For the record.. especially future Jeff.. my analysis last post was completely and totally vindicated. Cavs lost by 9 ish, so I would’ve just paid nearly 2:1 and had a push day instead of a winning day. Yesterdays post needs to be the rule of law. And tbh I bought a full point on the Bucks today - only bc it was -5.5 earlier, I was about to make a play but didn’t have time to go to the casino. So, thus, line grew as I expected but I still wanted the 5 I had in my head. Usually I think we should just stick with 6 here, never wise to give up extra vig - but it fell in that exception I outlined yesterday. Only to get to a push typically though.. no need to pay extra to try to make a winner.

Pending:
6 Series Play (Milw, Bos, Phil, Cle, Den, Pho) +178 for 1 unit

2023 NBA Playoffs: 12-5, +11.7 units
Thread: 26-15, +21.1 units

4/25 NBA

Boston -13 for 2 units

Pending:
6 Series Play (Milw, Bos, Phil, Cle, Den, Pho) +178 for 1 unit

2023 NBA Playoffs: 12-7, +7.9 units
Thread: 26-17, +17.3 units

FYI, I really liked the box last night. It took a Herculean effort from Jimmy Butler to defeat them. I actually think the Bucks will still win the series down 3-1. He scored 56 on like 17/29 shooting! Ironically, the heat actually won by exactly 5. I don’t know what that means regarding my buying the hooks around the number five, but I will say that line ended up with the Bucks -8 and Giannis played… I felt great about that play going into the game. Regarding Memphis, they lost by six in overtime. Also, there was a foul with like point one seconds left and the Lakers had two free throws… Also that five could’ve been very key. Granted Memphis made a three pointer with like two seconds left to even get in position, but what a tease.

FYI Bucks Celts will still win their series. Cle I don’t think has it but still hope. They should win game 5. Bucks prob roll tomorrow. And love the Warriors after the way the Kings got it to 2-2 and with an injured Fox.

Pending:
6 Series Play (Milw, Bos, Phil, Cle, Den, Pho) +178 for 1 unit

2023 NBA Playoffs: 12-8, +6.7 units
Thread: 26-18, +15.1 units

4/26, 4/27 & Beyond NBA

4 Team ML/Series Play (GS ML (4/26), Cle ML (4/26), Bos ML (4/27), Milw Series (4/26 & beyond) (+676) for 2 units

Breaking it down:
- I like the Dubs to win tonight even in Sac. I think it’s over in 6 personally
- I like Cle to defend home court. They’ll probably roll and then lose in NY to be honest
- I do like the Bucks. They’re 11 point faves. Just gotta win one in Miami and hope Jimmy doesn’t have 56 points
- Celts are absolutely going to win this series. Is it 6 or 7? Idk. Atlanta is the most hot and cold team ever and they easily could’ve lost last night by 20. They were down 13 in the 4th.