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 Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Joined: May 2023
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JV Squad
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Joined: Nov 2020
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Joined: Feb 2021
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Joined: Dec 2020
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Veteran
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MLB
PIT Pirates vs SEA Mariners NRFI
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Joined: Apr 2023
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Sophmore
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Sophmore
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Joined: Sep 2003
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JV Squad
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JV Squad
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Joined: Aug 2008
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JV Squad
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JV Squad
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NHL Dal/VGK
YES, SCORE 1ST 10 MIN GM (DAL/LV) -145
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Joined: Jan 2023
Posts: 1,361 Likes: 79 great white north
Junior
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Junior
Joined: Jan 2023
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big time operator
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Joined: Dec 2007
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Rookie
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Parlay
Hou + LAA $10 = $9.58 BOL
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Joined: Jul 2015
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Senior
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Joined: May 2008
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Bull 33 DSU
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 279,762 Likes: 2798 Time to play the Game
Owner
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OP
Owner
Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 279,762 Likes: 2798 Time to play the Game |
I've looked at tonight's NBA Playoff game and crunched and crunched the numbers. The bookmakers really made some adjustments from game 5 to game 6.
This is a look at PRA numbers.
Martin down 1
Strus up 1
Butler up 2
Love down 2
White up 1
One move only for Boston but 4 for Miami. The bookmakers are looking for Boston to pretty much play the same style/game as they did in Game 5 and they've made adjustments to how they see the Heat players performing. I can understand Butler up being at home and coming off his worst playoff game this season. They are looking for a big game from him.
This brings me back to where I was on Thursday with Marin and Smart and a little Love.
For the Celtics side of things, let's just be Smart about it and go Over 22.5 PRA. With no adjustment, we have a lot of value sitting there for the taking.
When we get to the Heat side of things, I have to use some Love and go over 8.5 PRA. The two point line drop was a bit of a surprise as he has easily eclipsed this number the last two games as well as the 10.5.
The Martin drop didn't come as a surprise as he has seen a decline in last few games going from 25-21-19. While his points went from 18-16-14. Note he didn't score a point in the 4th quarter last game taking only 4 shots. The total points is 12.5 and even without scoring in the fourth, he still beat the number and has done so relatively easy.
I'll give Martin another go with over 12.5 total points scored.
To recap
Smart over 22.5 PRA
Love over 8.5 PRA
Martin over 12.5 Points
Stay with me here for a moment longer please. I know I've been crushing it on the props in the playoffs and I think I've only lost one and that was with Williams with Boston in Game 4. I don't want you to go bet these like the game is over, don't go raising your bets, bet smart. Stay within your means. Yes I've spent a lot of time coming up with these, but past success never equals future success. I've said it before, I'm not a props bettor and I really don't know what got me started with these NBA Playoffs props, but here we are with a high success rate and I don't want to see people give the money back you've made. Are you hearing me Blacklisted !!!!
I know I'll be asked and I'm not a supporter of parlays either. Imagine that. The house holds huge advantages and hence why they offer them. I would play the Smart/Martin parlay again at near 3-1 odds. I wasn't able to add Love to the parlay but only could use Smart/Martin only.
Enjoy the game !
A post a day and your access will stay!
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1 member likes this:
Keif421 |
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Joined: Aug 2003
Posts: 342 Likes: 42 Grand Forks, British Columbia
JV Squad
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JV Squad
Joined: Aug 2003
Posts: 342 Likes: 42 Grand Forks, British Columbia |
  Let's do this FREAK. I'm all over this large and in charge. Be SMART and LOVE MARTIN !!!!!!!!!! 
The True North Strong and Free
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Joined: Nov 2021
Posts: 270 Likes: 1
Freshman
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Freshman
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Joined: Feb 2023
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JV Squad
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JV Squad
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Joined: Jul 2021
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Sophmore
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Sophmore
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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JV Squad
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JV Squad
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Re: 5/27 Bet The House
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Junior
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Junior
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