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Denver

MIN Twins ML (-140) 3 unit ls

MLB

Guardians +125

NBA

Heat ML +285

MLB
Hou ML
Bos ML

DENVER OVER

Heat/Nuggs over 219 -110

Heat + 8.5
Red Sox -1/2 First 5

GL

Action Network Prop Bomb

NBA Finals Same Game Parlay
The Parlay: (+130)

Bam Adebayo Under 10.5 Rebounds (-230)
Aaron Gordon 10+ Points (-320)
Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-320)

Bam Adebayo Under 10.5 Rebounds
Nikola Jokic is an offensive juggernaut. As a team, you can’t stop him as a team, but you must make it tough for him to score the ball. That’ll be Bam Adebayo’s assignment.

In the two games against the Nuggets, Adebayo averaged 4.5 rebounds per game. Just like how Anthony Davis guarded Jokic early in Game 1, Adebayo will have to meet him early in possessions, which will likely require him to be further from the rim.

Sportsbooks have set his lines at 8.5 rebounds with heavy juice, indicating he won’t record a double-double. Adebayo averages 9.1 rebounds per game on the road in the playoffs and has failed to go over 11 rebounds in nine of 10 road games, giving this a great hit rate for a parlay piece.


Aaron Gordon 10+ Points
Aaron Gordon played for 41 minutes in his last game against the Lakers and scored 22 points, including three 3-pointers. Although we shouldn’t anticipate the same level of success in Game 1 of the Finals, he’s still in a favorable position to score against the Miami Heat.

Gordon is averaging 13.8 points per game in the playoffs and has scored 10 or more points in all eight home games.

Gordon should be able to effectively cut to the basket and take advantage of his height mismatch against Max Strus.


Denver Nuggets Moneyline
Don’t overthink it. As great as Miami has been on the road in previous Game 1s, it’s tough to envision them stealing one in Ball Arena, especially factoring in Denver league’s best 18-4 record with a rest advantage.

The Nuggets have proven to be a challenging opponent when playing at home in front of their fans. In the regular season, they boasted an impressive 34-7 home record, which was second-best in the league. During the playoffs, Denver is 8-0 at home.

Reds f5 under
Guardians f5

Denver -8.5

Here we are the NBA Finals. If you read any of my posts a few years ago, you'll know I don't follow the NBA until the playoffs and even then, it's usually when 8 are left. The push of BLM on the courts, phrases on jerseys, the shoving of diversity and equality pretty much did it for me. I've always believed in this country and life you can make something of yourself no matter the color of your skin. I don't need leagues or athletes shoveling on high.

I have no idea what came to my mind to start looking at props and as I've said, I'm not a prop bettor, I don't play fantasy events, but somehow I did. To me it's all about math, tendencies and if you can watch a game to see what other players are doing on the floor while the ball is in another players hand, you can learn a lot. I haven't kept track of the posting but someone sent me an e-mail saying I was 18-2 on these props and what did I like for the game tonight.

Last out I was 1-1 but if you read between the lines you would've had Miami+. I'll toss in some info for you to dissect without coming out and saying it and that's why I write. I'm still waiting for people to post a reason for their pick. What would happen if I told TP to ban someone for not posting a write up with their picks? Just seeing if you're still with me.

Tonight you get a well rested Nugget team that takes on an underdog from the get go in the Heat. Denver has owned Miami SU/ATS and while many think they are going to come out rusty, I don't see that being the case. These guys haven't been laying around eating doughnuts and pizzas while awaiting their challenger. I see a lot of folks on the Heat +9 and I always ask people would you take them straight up? 95% of the time is no, but I think they cover. I never bet an underdog because I think they'll cover, I bet them because I think they can win SU. I learned long ago that's the only way to look at it. Sportsbooks/Bookies love bettors "that think" they can cover. Keep that in mind when you do your handicapping and I'm not advocating you take favorites, favorites lose and hence why underdogs win SU. Hence the mindset of taking the spread out of the equation as an underdog.

Just a little Freakucation for you.

I've crunched and crunched and crunched and I've got two players tonight for the PRA. One for each side. They likely will be no surprise because they have been ATM's for me and while I don't just pick them to pick them, the numbers that I use don't lie. These two players have an edge based on the bookmakers numbers.

For Denver it's going to be "The Pope" over 14.5. He's under the radar and while the last option as a starter, he does the little things and hustles. Let's just say he's a blue collar worker that puts in the effort. If he can hit a few three's we will be in great shape to cash this one.

For Miami it's the player that got ripped off and should have been the ECF MVP, Caleb Martin. Giving it to Butler was a joke. Do you know how many more shots Butler put up over Martin in that series? It was over 60 and yet Martin was the force that emerged. I can recall the announcers in every game saying if it wasn't for Martin, Miami was done. They started in game 4 saying if the Heat won the ECF, Martin was the clear MVP. This was something I was saying before the talking heads. I know what this player can do and once he was given the opportunity to start, he has done what he has always done and that's flourish.

This reminds me of what Jordan Poole did last year in the playoffs coming off the bench. Poole got a big contract and regressed this year but I think the pre season flair up set him back. He didn't play with confidence most of the time and that's the difference between these two players. I love Poole and his game but Martin isn't the kind of player to lose confidence. He has that swagger and I hope he gets rewarded well.

With that said, bookmakers list the PRA at 24.5. Even though they see it as 3 above playoff average, I say their wrong and as in my last write up, the splits don't make sense to that number if you look at him as a starter.

With all that said, he will likely get a lot more attention that he did with Boston. I'm counting that he will still get it done and we'll see after game 1 what Denver does. They can cover Bam and Butler and either Martin/Vincent, but not all four. Bam/Butler will be 2/3 for certain, so we'll see who they focus more on Vincent/Martin.

For transparency, I did give deep thought to Martin over 15.5 points instead of PRA, but I'm thinking PRA because if the shooting is off he will get rebounds and assists to help offset a few point regression.

This took longer to write than I expected, too many post approvals because you're not posting daily when you visit. Save me time and effort, if you are here at the forum, make a post, it's not that hard. Seriously..........

Martin PRA was listed as 24.5 it's now 23.5 and since it's before game time. I'll use that number as it has even more value.

Heat at Nuggets - OVER (218.5)

Miami Heats ml + the points and teaser with the over